Coronavirus Outbreak

[earl]

the lockdowns or ,the virus Earl.money will win out over death rates in the end,life will have 2 go on no matter what

I completely agree with you. People stating hard quarantines and lockdowns going forward will be on the wrong side of history. I think that moment has already passed.

If any government sticks to this approach it won't work.

 

[Tiger5150]

I'll explain the way I see this which I think is backed up by the scientific evidence.

5. **The need for vaccination at this point in time drops significantly post the double vaccination.**

I can give you proper reports backing this up as well as experts stating the same information.

I would love to see the reports that you have based this on. I'll wait.

 

[earl]

the lockdown is starting to wear thin on me

We can't afford it on so many levels. The financial cost is huge, I assume the mental health cost is large and the fighting about freedom and rights and discrimination plus the move towards a police state is not acceptable for much longer.

Plus we have vaccines that will make this issue initially bad but it will get significantly less of an issue over time.

 

[earl]

In regard to returned travellers, I think we are potentially barking at the wrong issue.
The real issue is what happens to those travellers when they return. If they were able to be quarantined in appropriate facilities, then the issue of whether they should be allowed to return wouldn't even be on the table.
of course Australian citizens should be allowed to return...and required to quarantine for an appropriate period of time in purpose built quarantine facilities.

I agree with this - the fact that many of the flight crew were coming in and not being subjected to quarantine has also played a major factor.

Has it ? Sure it contributed to this outbreak but it was going to happen anyway. We also can't stay locked up trying to stop COVID. It's like the Iraqi foreign minister or whatever he was when he was stating we are beating back the American forces.

We are living in a pandemic. Just like every pandemic before this people will die, get sick and develop immunity and the virus will become much more normalized.

It's a false premise that we can hold this at bay.

 

[Mighty_Tiger]

In regard to returned travellers, I think we are potentially barking at the wrong issue.
The real issue is what happens to those travellers when they return. If they were able to be quarantined in appropriate facilities, then the issue of whether they should be allowed to return wouldn't even be on the table.
of course Australian citizens should be allowed to return...and required to quarantine for an appropriate period of time in purpose built quarantine facilities.

I agree with this - the fact that many of the flight crew were coming in and not being subjected to quarantine has also played a major factor.

Has it ? Sure it contributed to this outbreak but it was going to happen anyway. We also can't stay locked up trying to stop COVID. It's like the Iraqi foreign minister or whatever he was when he was stating we are beating back the American forces.

We are living in a pandemic. Just like every pandemic before this people will die, get sick and develop immunity and the virus will become much more normalized.

It's a false premise that we can hold this at bay.

Most people don’t actually get the reason why the lockdowns happen. It’s because our medical system cannot cope with it. Its not the medical centers its the hospitals. The hospitals in some regions are already at capacity with a lockdown, ICU wards & ventilators are being maxed out. Man power is already over worked. The issue this creates is they are close to having to make calls, if this goes unrestricted then well say goodbye if you get crook as you’re chances of getting the care needed for anything other than covid is gone.

It’s not about obsoleting it, NSW is well past that. It’s about keeping it under control. Only way to do that is via restrictions which will be around for a while.

Now as to your comment before of modeling 30 to 100s makes little difference - cool but the modeling does change sizably when it hits above 700 with another step change at 1200 and so forth.

I mentioned before that the 80% vaccine/suppressant (lets face it, it’s actually not a vaccine) figure should be population based rather than adult based, children in the delta variant can get it and get very sick. VIC are seeing this first hand right now - nearly 50% of cases are under 20 (most under 16) and it is spreading alot faster that way as well.

As to a proper quarantine well put it this way if everyone had to be tested and sit in a mandated hotel barracks of sorts without borders exceptions then the chances of it getting out is extremely slim. Tassie and WA do it really well. Have experienced WA side of things twice through this all and minimal chances for things to leak out.

 

[Merlot]

is there some register that people need/should get on when they get a shot as proof???

 

[Jedi_Tiger]

south Australia are apparently going to trial return travellers with electronic bracelets for monitoring at home purposes

 

[Jedi_Tiger]

is there some register that people need/should get on when they get a shot as proof???

your covid certificate is on your mygov medical record you can access via Medicare just download a copy and save it to your phone

 

[earl]

Most people don’t actually get the reason why the lockdowns happen. It’s because our medical system cannot cope with it. Its not the medical centers its the hospitals. The hospitals in some regions are already at capacity with a lockdown, ICU wards & ventilators are being maxed out. Man power is already over worked. The issue this creates is they are close to having to make calls, if this goes unrestricted then well say goodbye if you get crook as you’re chances of getting the care needed for anything other than covid is gone.

The Doherty report has a clear guideline in relation to restrictions. They are required to manage the health system - i.e. to stop the health system being inundated.

How do you know these points. I haven't heard this mentioned anywhere. I think you are trying to make a black and white argument when one doesn't exist. I'm not stating unrestricted let it rip policies should be followed. I'm stating the harsh lockdowns can't continue indefinitely.

It’s not about obsoleting it, NSW is well past that. It’s about keeping it under control. Only way to do that is via restrictions which will be around for a while.

What do restrictions mean to you ? I agree with your point here. Restrictions will be here. Restrictions may mean vaccinated can do lots of things while unvaccinated can't. It might mean masks have to be worn indoors.

Now as to your comment before of modeling 30 to 100s makes little difference - cool but the modeling does change sizably when it hits above 700 with another step change at 1200 and so forth.

Can you provide me with the details that you are talking about here ? I don't believe this has been released yet. There was an article stating that another report is being put towards cabinet this week and it didn't make a huge difference in relation to those case numbers.

I mentioned before that the 80% vaccine/suppressant (lets face it, it’s actually not a vaccine) figure should be population based rather than adult based, children in the delta variant can get it and get very sick. VIC are seeing this first hand right now - nearly 50% of cases are under 20 (most under 16) and it is spreading alot faster that way as well.

Why isn't it a vaccine ? I am pretty confident it is a vaccine. I disagree with your point about the 80% level. Children to my knowledge are not getting anywhere near as sick as older adults.

I agree kids spread it. I agree some will get sick. Some may die. Statistically though this is very rare.

As to a proper quarantine well put it this way if everyone had to be tested and sit in a mandated hotel barracks of sorts without borders exceptions then the chances of it getting out is extremely slim. Tassie and WA do it really well. Have experienced WA side of things twice through this all and minimal chances for things to leak out.

I don't believe this at all. I believe it's a losing battle. All over the developed world restrictions are becoming significantly less harsh. I don't believe you can continue these harsh lockdowns and quarantines with this virus. It doesn't make sense to me. It's not being followed like this all over the world.

If you disagree cool but let's wait and see how this plays out over the next 6 months let alone the next 5 years.

At some point COVID is coming to you and me and all of us.

 

[Jedi_Tiger]

friend of mine is a nurse in the u.s. she said the trials of moderna for under 12 year olds is having mixed results and is likely not going to pass the trials, this is in California though.
I thought Australia and Canada were going to trial it for under 12 but I believe this has been stopped at this stage given the poor trials in u.s.

 

[Tiger5150]

Why isn't it a vaccine ? I am pretty confident it is a vaccine. ***I disagree with your point about the 80% level.*** Children to my knowledge are not getting anywhere near as sick as older adults.

Also Earl : *"Vaccinated are 8 times less likely to contract COVID.."*

https://weststigersforum.com/topic/30513/coronavirus-outbreak/12813

Earl....mate.....80% (actually 88%) equates to "8 times less likely".

Earl and maffematics are like oil and water and that is a scientific fact, Earl probably has reports to prove it that he will talk about but not post.

What a shame he has me on foe.

 

[Merlot]

is there some register that people need/should get on when they get a shot as proof???

your covid certificate is on your mygov medical record you can access via Medicare just download a copy and save it to your phone

thanks JT,can it be got any where else but computer phone,hard copy,in pocket so 2 speak,stay safe buddy

 

[Merlot]

is there some register that people need/should get on when they get a shot as proof???

your covid certificate is on your mygov medical record you can access via Medicare just download a copy and save it to your phone

thanks JT,can it be got any where else but computer phone,hard copy,in pocket so 2 speak,stay safe buddy

retract that comment.me dumb

 

[Tiger5150]

is there some register that people need/should get on when they get a shot as proof???

your covid certificate is on your mygov medical record you can access via Medicare just download a copy and save it to your phone

thanks JT,can it be got any where else but computer phone,hard copy,in pocket so 2 speak,stay safe buddy

retract that comment.me dumb

You know you can delete it? Click the three squares bottom right corner.

 

[Jedi_Tiger]

is there some register that people need/should get on when they get a shot as proof???

your covid certificate is on your mygov medical record you can access via Medicare just download a copy and save it to your phone

thanks JT,can it be got any where else but computer phone,hard copy,in pocket so 2 speak,stay safe buddy

not sure if it will end up linking to your service nsw app or not but will be on your mygov app so just show it when you need to mate

 

[earl]

friend of mine is a nurse in the u.s. she said the trials of moderna for under 12 year olds is having mixed results and is likely not going to pass the trials, this is in California though.
I thought Australia and Canada were going to trial it for under 12 but I believe this has been stopped at this stage given the poor trials in u.s.

My youngest son is 10 yo so this is relevant to me. I'd like him vaccinated but only if it helps. The risk to benefit for that age group may not make sense.

 

[Cultured_Bogan]

I don't think people realise that we won't open until we get to a certain number of people vaccinated.

I hope this doesn't matter.
>
>They are not taking into accordance that the vaccine passports will be the new way to travel to other countries. I feel like they will complain when they find out they can't go overseas if they don't have a jab.

They will love it. It'll give them something to complain about.

I'm confident we wecan get to the 70-80% needed to re-open

Not getting political but I believe there is going to be a huge rethink on reopening now most of the States will refuse (and rightly so). NSW is going to have to get nos down in the 10s.

That is an illogical way to deal with this.

We have a constitution and people will vote for leaders who keep them safe.

One rogue State has seeded events in other States and in NZ.

Sweet, enjoy being locked away for years when there is a way out

Isn’t this what you wanted ?
You were the number 1 advocate for letting in returned travellers .

Really? Number one advocate? I can recall toing and froing both side of the argument but eventually deciding that I believe Australians have a right to return home.

Yeah mate .. you were pushing hard your agenda ..
And now for the sake of a few thousand returned travellers we have 8.2 million locked down in someway shape or form ..
Not blaming you of coarse but look where it’s got us with that line of thinking ..

Pretty sure the people who infected the limo driver were US airfreight pilots.

 

[Cultured_Bogan]

I don't think people realise that we won't open until we get to a certain number of people vaccinated.

I hope this doesn't matter.
>
>They are not taking into accordance that the vaccine passports will be the new way to travel to other countries. I feel like they will complain when they find out they can't go overseas if they don't have a jab.

They will love it. It'll give them something to complain about.

I'm confident we wecan get to the 70-80% needed to re-open

Not getting political but I believe there is going to be a huge rethink on reopening now most of the States will refuse (and rightly so). NSW is going to have to get nos down in the 10s.

That is an illogical way to deal with this.

We have a constitution and people will vote for leaders who keep them safe.

One rogue State has seeded events in other States and in NZ.

What complete garbage. Do all the other states have returned travellers coming through their airports and quarantining in their cities? Should we blame India for the circumstance we are in (this case came from transporting an indian returnee)? NSW has done all the heavy lifting with regards restricting covid or keeping it out and obviously this Delta variant has made it out and NONE of the states or NZ are controlling it, but lets blame the one state that they are funnelling all returns through. If Vic/Qld/WA want to get on their high horse, start taking the returns through there.


All States are taking returned travelers, although Tasmania were taking o/seas students.

All States are not taking returned travellers in practice although I was surprised to see how many Qld are taking (on par with NSW). I dont consider SA or WA taking 3500 or 7000 per month comparable with NSW/Qld taking 40K. I also think its disgraceful that Vic are only taking 10K. Clearly Qld and NSW doing all the lifting.

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/tourism-and-transport/overseas-travel-statistics-provisional/latest-release

Probably minimal international flights arriving into SA and WA.

Odd that Victoria's numbers are so low though, I remember they set a limit on the number of arrivals during the 'first wave' but thought that'd been scaled back up to a more normal percentage.

The following is an excerpt from an ABC report at the time that Dan Andrews flagged reducing international arrivals in June:

*Meanwhile, Mr Andrews said he would argue at tomorrow's meeting of National Cabinet for a temporary cut to the number of people being allowed into the country and entering hotel quarantine.

Mr Andrews has joined Western Australia and Queensland who also support significant cuts to international arrivals.

Mr Andrews wants the cap on international travellers lowered by as much as 80 per cent to help prevent further outbreaks emerging from hotel quarantine.

He said he would try to get state and territory leaders to agree on a new cap.

"We haven't got enough people vaccinated, we've got this wildly infectious [Delta] strain, we've all given so much, especially Victorians more than anyone else, we've all given so much, let's safeguard that," he said.

"Locking some people out is better than locking everybody down, that's the government's position, that's my position, and that's what I'll argue at National Cabinet tomorrow."

Mr Andrews said he would prefer a uniform cap across all states rather than unilaterally reducing the cap in Victoria.*

No one should have any issue with Vic reducing its nos due what has been experienced in the State. I wish Dan Andrews was here in NSW.

I don't.

Neither do I. Andrews and Gladys have both been responsible for some awful outcomes.

 

[Mighty_Tiger]

@Earl there are active examples within VIC phase 2 going on right now. Reports of kids literally vomiting & collapsing at school then testing positive from covid, some are in ICU including a baby at the moment. The current outbreak in VIC started to spread from school interactions.

The media focus more on deaths than hospitalized & ICU scenarios - if you look at NDIS data you will be surprised as to the volume of people under 10 & under 19 have tested positive. Kids are massive super spreaders which to be fair Gladys shut schools down quickly.

The reason why this is very relevant isn’t just hospitalized impacts its the fact restrictions without a vaccine = home schooling. To provide home schooling people need to stay home. Kids study, learning and life impacts are massive because of what is going on. Until an option and push for them to receive it happens lockdowns of sorts will stay for a while. This is something that has large concerns within health communities atm.

 

[cochise]

I don't think people realise that we won't open until we get to a certain number of people vaccinated.

I hope this doesn't matter.
>
>They are not taking into accordance that the vaccine passports will be the new way to travel to other countries. I feel like they will complain when they find out they can't go overseas if they don't have a jab.

They will love it. It'll give them something to complain about.

I'm confident we wecan get to the 70-80% needed to re-open

Not getting political but I believe there is going to be a huge rethink on reopening now most of the States will refuse (and rightly so). NSW is going to have to get nos down in the 10s.

That is an illogical way to deal with this.

We have a constitution and people will vote for leaders who keep them safe.

One rogue State has seeded events in other States and in NZ.

Sweet, enjoy being locked away for years when there is a way out

Isn’t this what you wanted ?
You were the number 1 advocate for letting in returned travellers .

Really? Number one advocate? I can recall toing and froing both side of the argument but eventually deciding that I believe Australians have a right to return home.

Yeah mate .. you were pushing hard your agenda ..
And now for the sake of a few thousand returned travellers we have 8.2 million locked down in someway shape or form ..
Not blaming you of coarse but look where it’s got us with that line of thinking ..

Pretty sure the people who infected the limo driver were US airfreight pilots.

That was my understanding as well.