Coronavirus Outbreak

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@Muffstar said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125196) said:
@innsaneink said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125184) said:
Looks like it's only gunna get worse before it gets better.... We are due to fly to philippines in 2 weeks... All this crap putting a real dampener on things

My sister in law is a doctor in the Philippines and at this stage no concerns. We are on a cruise ship right now, no one is wearing masks but they keep telling everyone about washing hands etc. So be aware but have fun, you will love it there.


That’s it, go out and live your life as you normally would, without fear. I’m not saying this virus isn’t a real thing and of course people need to be sensible with hygiene and make wise decisions with their travel plans, but I think the media and people’s overall reactions to it have made it a bigger problem in everyone’s minds then it really is! Fear mongering + illogical mass panic = police state.

People need to calm down and just go about their lives as normal, we’ve had far worse things than Coronavirus happen throughout the history of the world and we’ve still survived. I really don’t think it’s the end of the world just yet. Besides the end can’t come BEFORE Wests Tigers win another premiership surely!

Enjoy your trip to the Philippines Ink, relax and have a great time ??
 
@innsaneink said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125184) said:
Looks like it's only gunna get worse before it gets better.... We are due to fly to philippines in 2 weeks... All this crap putting a real dampener on things

You going boracay?

My closest friends working at DFAT in the aussie embassey in Hanoi say its fine over there and around the area.
 
@dazza65 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125645) said:
Influenza is 0.1% (NOT 0.01) and latest research has COVID around 3 to 3.4% not 6% (the probable reason for the COVID being currently at 3% vs Flu is it being “novel” and the whole science around adaptive immunity ).

I'm pretty sure, the strain-specific mortality rate for flu varies? I.e. on average flu kills 0.1%, but in any given season you might have a particularly virulent strain and it might hit the population harder; case in point with the Spanish flu, though that is otherwise hardly comparable to modern technology, it's not as if flu started in 1918.

Also, as you basically note, being a novel strain we haven't developed a vaccine yet, as we have for many other viruses. The mortality rate for flu is based on the fact that we've been developing annual vaccines (and vaccination programs) against flu for a very long time. But when a novel strain virus emerges, that work has to start again.

It's like saying that smallpox kills 30% of unvaccinated people - yeah it does, and it did before the vaccine was invented, but what about now?
 
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125664) said:
Just got an email from Woolworths stating all toilet paper manufacturers have ramped up production and now working 24/7 to cope with the unusual demand.

What they sent that email to you too??? Oh no, now everyone knows, there will be more panic to buy the increased stock.
 
@jirskyr said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125697) said:
@dazza65 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125645) said:
Influenza is 0.1% (NOT 0.01) and latest research has COVID around 3 to 3.4% not 6% (the probable reason for the COVID being currently at 3% vs Flu is it being “novel” and the whole science around adaptive immunity ).

I'm pretty sure, the strain-specific mortality rate for flu varies? I.e. on average flu kills 0.1%, but in any given season you might have a particularly virulent strain and it might hit the population harder; case in point with the Spanish flu, though that is otherwise hardly comparable to modern technology, it's not as if flu started in 1918.

Also, as you basically note, being a novel strain we haven't developed a vaccine yet, as we have for many other viruses. The mortality rate for flu is based on the fact that we've been developing annual vaccines (and vaccination programs) against flu for a very long time. But when a novel strain virus emerges, that work has to start again.

It's like saying that smallpox kills 30% of unvaccinated people - yeah it does, and it did before the vaccine was invented, but what about now?


pretty accurate jirskyr, I wasn't wanting to go into depth with the immunological basis of humeral, adaptive and cell mediated immunities (on a footy site :man-shrugging: ) but just to say at this point in time, all things considered, comparing influenza to COVID2019 and its relative current and future lethality and level of transmission is a little premature - other than to say it doesn't look like it will be another SARS or MERS and will probably settle into the global (annual?) repertoire of several different strains of flu along with the other 4 or 5 common human coronaviruses which usually cause mild to moderate upper-respiratory tract illnesses, like the common cold. Most people get infected with one or more of these viruses at some point in their lives.

I say this with the proviso that it doesn't mutate from its current Wild-Type
 
@dazza65 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125703) said:
Most people get infected with one or more of these viruses at some point in their lives.

I'm working on an RSV vaccine right now, so I know where you are coming from. But I'm not a medic or a research scientist, I handle program management of testing.
 
@jirskyr said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125704) said:
@dazza65 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125703) said:
Most people get infected with one or more of these viruses at some point in their lives.

I'm working on an RSV vaccine right now, so I know where you are coming from. But I'm not a medic or a research scientist, I handle program management of testing.


ok nice
I was a medical researcher for many many years before I jumped into a more commercial role a few years back.
 
@Cultured_Bogan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125719) said:
Opportunistic jerks in all walks of life Hobbo.

Yeah it doesnt matter where that person hails from, they just suck regardless.
 
@dazza65 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125703) said:
@jirskyr said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125697) said:
@dazza65 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125645) said:
Influenza is 0.1% (NOT 0.01) and latest research has COVID around 3 to 3.4% not 6% (the probable reason for the COVID being currently at 3% vs Flu is it being “novel” and the whole science around adaptive immunity ).

I'm pretty sure, the strain-specific mortality rate for flu varies? I.e. on average flu kills 0.1%, but in any given season you might have a particularly virulent strain and it might hit the population harder; case in point with the Spanish flu, though that is otherwise hardly comparable to modern technology, it's not as if flu started in 1918.

Also, as you basically note, being a novel strain we haven't developed a vaccine yet, as we have for many other viruses. The mortality rate for flu is based on the fact that we've been developing annual vaccines (and vaccination programs) against flu for a very long time. But when a novel strain virus emerges, that work has to start again.

It's like saying that smallpox kills 30% of unvaccinated people - yeah it does, and it did before the vaccine was invented, but what about now?


pretty accurate jirskyr, I wasn't wanting to go into depth with the immunological basis of humeral, adaptive and cell mediated immunities (on a footy site :man-shrugging: ) but just to say at this point in time, all things considered, comparing influenza to COVID2019 and its relative current and future lethality and level of transmission is a little premature - other than to say it doesn't look like it will be another SARS or MERS and will probably settle into the global (annual?) repertoire of several different strains of flu along with the other 4 or 5 common human coronaviruses which usually cause mild to moderate upper-respiratory tract illnesses, like the common cold. Most people get infected with one or more of these viruses at some point in their lives.

I say this with the proviso that it doesn't mutate from its current Wild-Type

Interesting stuff Daz, feel free to go on.
 
@jirskyr said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125648) said:
@hammertime said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125609) said:
There are some simple things that HK does, like plastic film over lift buttons, so that it’s easy to sanitise.

I didn't realise lift buttons were difficult to sanitise? Why can't you just wipe them with disinfectant?

Things start to go overboard in this regard, I mean lift buttons? What about every other public surface in existence, are folks going to walk around opening things with a foot press or elbow or wave at a scanner, just to avoid germs?

Sure as hell don't touch money if germs are a problem, also don't talk to anyone, or shake hands - no no, that's instant transferal. We can all then add to the immuno-weaknesses that already might exist because some mums excessively disinfect their house and kids don't get a proper dose of bugs in their childhood.

This mentality is why Australia isn't going to do well through this.

The "Yeah, nah, she'll be right". Will make you tougher kind of response. Bud, that's why there will be a vaccination eventually built to ensure our immune systems can cope.

I mean, where do you draw the line? Would SARS landing in Australia mean that we start doing some smart things? Ebola?

High-touch surfaces such as lift buttons, public toilet doors (keep them open) all helps. You could label it soft. Label it an overreaction. But I would prefer to go with facts rather than a uncorrelated assumption about cleanliness causing auto-immune issues. Sounds all a bit anti-vax!
 
@jirskyr said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125602) said:
@Cairnstigers said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125581) said:
@happy_tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125560) said:
I still remember seeing a woman in 2011 during the floods when everyone was limited to a maximum of 3 litres of milk per person

She grabbed her 2nd 3 litre she was wanting to buy and smashed it on the ground saying "if I can't have it , no one can "

Was she crying over spilt milk

I want to know if it bounced... she smashed it on the ground, but they don't make 3L glass bottles, so did it just get dented? You can still buy dented milk. Or did she have sufficient strength to pop the lid off?

Nup went everywhere ..one bloke walked past and said to Woolies employees to ring the cops and make the witch clean it up herself
 
@dazza65 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125645) said:
@happy_tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125561) said:
@dazza65 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125419) said:
Been saying it since day one. Incredibly overhyped by media and others - if I didn’t know better I would think their are ulterior motives at play here. Statistical likelihood of dying from CV vs Influenza is ridiculously low. But hey let’s not let facts get in the way of hysteriCal hand wringing and nonsense

Dazza the chance of dying from your typical flu is about .01% ....coronavirus is around 6%


Um yeah nah. Not getting into an argument on something almost as emotive as the NRL ad :grinning: however Influenza is 0.1% (NOT 0.01) and latest research has COVID around 3 to 3.4% not 6% (the probable reason for the COVID being currently at 3% vs Flu is it being "novel" and the whole science around adaptive immunity ).

Influenza in Australia only last year killed 255 people of all ages and all levels of "wellness" currently COVID seems to be deadly to elderly and/or people with respiratory or cardiac insufficiencies and excluding the outlier of the the young baby in SA, children seem almost immune to CCOVID's (for some reason)

All my point was that in comparison and asking any genuinely knowledgeable medical/scientific person, COVID is not "worse" than influenza - As I mentioned above, the initial and still some concern was around it being "novel" therefore there some some uncertainty about how or whether the virus would mutate quickly once it has "escaped" from China into something more deadly like SARS or MERS.

I'm just going off the report that was in this thread ...I thought it was around 3.5% - 4.00 %
 
@hammertime said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125779) said:
The “Yeah, nah, she’ll be right”. Will make you tougher kind of response. Bud, that’s why there will be a vaccination eventually built to ensure our immune systems can cope.
I mean, where do you draw the line? Would SARS landing in Australia mean that we start doing some smart things? Ebola?
High-touch surfaces such as lift buttons, public toilet doors (keep them open) all helps. You could label it soft. Label it an overreaction. But I would prefer to go with facts rather than a uncorrelated assumption about cleanliness causing auto-immune issues. Sounds all a bit anti-vax!

Wow talk about bad paraphrasing! I didn't say cleanliness causes autoimmune diseases. I said there might be immune weaknesses caused by excessive disinfection. It's called the "hygiene hypothesis", being a hypothesis only, with proponents and critics.

But really what I am talking about is the idea of just how clean you need to be to manage transfer of germs. I mean, you can never kill all the germs, it's just not possible, and you'll never win. For example your lift button disinfecting - how would you manage that? Wipe once per hour? Once per day? After every button press? Even just standing in a lift with other people exposes you to germs, regardless of whether or not you are touching surfaces. I've seen some ideas for swipe-cards so you needn't touch the buttons - ok, but that's a lot of work to put into avoiding pushing a button.

What about every panel, ever handle, every train pole or hook, every guard rail on stairs? Every handshake, cough, sneeze. I mean, the list of potential offenders gets huge and you have to ask yourself what the more basic approach that does 90% of the work?

Easy one - wash your hands very thoroughly before eating or handling your face, don't go out and about when you are sick. I don't have the data for this but I'm pretty sure it's sound and it covers most issues.

I've been seeing an ever-growing trend of Asian Australians, and Asians overseas, in my lifetime, wearing face masks out in public, and it appears to have done diddly-squat to control some of these outbreaks like SARS, MERS, COVID-19.
 
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