Coronavirus Outbreak

[cochise]

I find it annoying that some people say that the disease doesn't have the signs of a deadly one. They fail to realise that lockdown is one of the reasons.

I did some rough numbers on this.

UK/USA have had about 2000 deaths per million people. Data from here:- https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Australia has a population of about 25 million.
Say we get to 80% vaccinated and everyone who is vaccinated is safe. That leaves 20% of the population as the percentage exposed to COVID.
In that scenario we'd get 10,000 deaths.

The flaws in those numbers are as follows:-

**1. The 2000 deaths per million population is over the course of the pandemic and not 1 year.**
2. That scenario assumes no deaths for vaccinated people.
3. Getting to 80% may be hard.

More people would die of heart disease and dementia compared to COVID.

Lower vaccination rates would chance the picture completely. If we were completely unvaccinated you are looking at 50 000 deaths which would be our biggest killer by far.

Happy for anyone to come up with rougher figures or point our anything I missed.

The way I view it though is if we can somehow get people vaccinated this isn't a big issue. The unvaccinated will also develop COVID and then develop immunity so deaths should decrease over time.

If people don't get vaccinated this would be a catastrophe. People are getting vaccinated though. From yesterdays figures I get a figure of 56% first dose protected in NSW. If we get to 80% by end of this lockdown and people follow through I think we can basically beat this.

https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/australias-covid-19-vaccine-rollout

For every 528 people in the US a person has died of Covid-19. 1 in 528. Think about that for a minute. That probable equates to 1 person in every street or two has died of Covid-19 in the US.

It's about 2 percent of the population. It's freaken horrendous.

I get a couple of broad takings out of this:-

1. Lockdowns/border closures in Australia have saved so many lives.
2. The Delta strain coming late in the pandemic has been exceptionally lucky for us. It's bad it's here but if the virus was this contagious at the start I think we'd be similar to the UK or the US.
3. Vaccines are going to save so many lives.

I'm trying to avoid large numbers and percentages as most can't get their head around it, as it seems incomprehensible and meaningless to some. That and wont happen to me syndrome. Showing the numbers on a more personal and neighbourhood level and the light bulb goes on, at least for some.

I checked your figures and I think you've understated the number a little. Not much and it misses the point. The point is this is how do you get people to realize this is a disaster unlike anything we've ever seen in terms of loss of human life.

I'm amazed people still believe this is some sort of fraud. I see crazy anti-vaxxers/conspiracy theorists in America stating something is killing people but they don't know what it is that is killing people. Can you imagine it.

The rallies yesterday were full of people saying that the virus isn't real. So it is not just the USA.

 

[GNR4LIFE]

Now the QR code is considered discrimination to the people who are not Vaccinated.

And they probably complain about that, posting comments on social media via their smartphones. Such irony.

 

[earl]

I find it annoying that some people say that the disease doesn't have the signs of a deadly one. They fail to realise that lockdown is one of the reasons.

I did some rough numbers on this.

UK/USA have had about 2000 deaths per million people. Data from here:- https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Australia has a population of about 25 million.
Say we get to 80% vaccinated and everyone who is vaccinated is safe. That leaves 20% of the population as the percentage exposed to COVID.
In that scenario we'd get 10,000 deaths.

The flaws in those numbers are as follows:-

**1. The 2000 deaths per million population is over the course of the pandemic and not 1 year.**
2. That scenario assumes no deaths for vaccinated people.
3. Getting to 80% may be hard.

More people would die of heart disease and dementia compared to COVID.

Lower vaccination rates would chance the picture completely. If we were completely unvaccinated you are looking at 50 000 deaths which would be our biggest killer by far.

Happy for anyone to come up with rougher figures or point our anything I missed.

The way I view it though is if we can somehow get people vaccinated this isn't a big issue. The unvaccinated will also develop COVID and then develop immunity so deaths should decrease over time.

If people don't get vaccinated this would be a catastrophe. People are getting vaccinated though. From yesterdays figures I get a figure of 56% first dose protected in NSW. If we get to 80% by end of this lockdown and people follow through I think we can basically beat this.

https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/australias-covid-19-vaccine-rollout

For every 528 people in the US a person has died of Covid-19. 1 in 528. Think about that for a minute. That probable equates to 1 person in every street or two has died of Covid-19 in the US.

It's about 2 percent of the population. It's freaken horrendous.

I get a couple of broad takings out of this:-

1. Lockdowns/border closures in Australia have saved so many lives.
2. The Delta strain coming late in the pandemic has been exceptionally lucky for us. It's bad it's here but if the virus was this contagious at the start I think we'd be similar to the UK or the US.
3. Vaccines are going to save so many lives.

I'm trying to avoid large numbers and percentages as most can't get their head around it, as it seems incomprehensible and meaningless to some. That and wont happen to me syndrome. Showing the numbers on a more personal and neighbourhood level and the light bulb goes on, at least for some.

I checked your figures and I think you've understated the number a little. Not much and it misses the point. The point is this is how do you get people to realize this is a disaster unlike anything we've ever seen in terms of loss of human life.

I'm amazed people still believe this is some sort of fraud. I see crazy anti-vaxxers/conspiracy theorists in America stating something is killing people but they don't know what it is that is killing people. Can you imagine it.

The rallies yesterday were full of people saying that the virus isn't real. So it is not just the USA.

It kills me. I'm really feeling confident now though.

 

[Cultured_Bogan]

Now the QR code is considered discrimination to the people who are not Vaccinated.

Mustn't have been smokers when they finally canned smoking indoors at pubs. I was still smoking when that happened.

 

[earl]

I find it annoying that some people say that the disease doesn't have the signs of a deadly one. They fail to realise that lockdown is one of the reasons.

I did some rough numbers on this.

UK/USA have had about 2000 deaths per million people. Data from here:- https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Australia has a population of about 25 million.
Say we get to 80% vaccinated and everyone who is vaccinated is safe. That leaves 20% of the population as the percentage exposed to COVID.
In that scenario we'd get 10,000 deaths.

The flaws in those numbers are as follows:-

**1. The 2000 deaths per million population is over the course of the pandemic and not 1 year.**
2. That scenario assumes no deaths for vaccinated people.
3. Getting to 80% may be hard.

More people would die of heart disease and dementia compared to COVID.

Lower vaccination rates would chance the picture completely. If we were completely unvaccinated you are looking at 50 000 deaths which would be our biggest killer by far.

Happy for anyone to come up with rougher figures or point our anything I missed.

The way I view it though is if we can somehow get people vaccinated this isn't a big issue. The unvaccinated will also develop COVID and then develop immunity so deaths should decrease over time.

If people don't get vaccinated this would be a catastrophe. People are getting vaccinated though. From yesterdays figures I get a figure of 56% first dose protected in NSW. If we get to 80% by end of this lockdown and people follow through I think we can basically beat this.

https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/australias-covid-19-vaccine-rollout

For every 528 people in the US a person has died of Covid-19. 1 in 528. Think about that for a minute. That probable equates to 1 person in every street or two has died of Covid-19 in the US.

It's about 2 percent of the population. It's freaken horrendous.

I get a couple of broad takings out of this:-

1. Lockdowns/border closures in Australia have saved so many lives.
2. The Delta strain coming late in the pandemic has been exceptionally lucky for us. It's bad it's here but if the virus was this contagious at the start I think we'd be similar to the UK or the US.
3. Vaccines are going to save so many lives.

It is well below 2% of the people who have died from covid it is less than 0.3%.It is still far too many and high vaccine use should reduce the figure even more.The nutters on the right wing of politics(mainly in the USA) are the ones leading the antivax brigade and making the situation worse.We should all be thankful we dont live in the USA as they still have a main political party refusing to give full support to either vaccinations or mask wearing.At least here we have bipartisan support on doing so even if a few from the right are actively in denial.

Just to be clear the figure in the US and the UK is about 2% of the population. I am not talking about 2% of the infected population.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

USA - 1,935 deaths per million people
UK - 1,927deaths per million people

I assume your figure is Australia only.

Australia - 38 deaths per million people

I am still fuming about the dribble that people have stated in relation to COVID. This disinformation has been intense and also intensely stupid.

I've been listening to proper sources and proper information the whole time and sure enough the information has been basically perfect. The health advice has been spot on because they have been using the best information.

People have politicized this issue and completely not cared about the facts. I view what is going on in America as criminal.

The facts are this mountain of data that gets crunched and it's the best data I've ever seen in my life.

 

[earl]

I find it annoying that some people say that the disease doesn't have the signs of a deadly one. They fail to realise that lockdown is one of the reasons.

I did some rough numbers on this.

UK/USA have had about 2000 deaths per million people. Data from here:- https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Australia has a population of about 25 million.
Say we get to 80% vaccinated and everyone who is vaccinated is safe. That leaves 20% of the population as the percentage exposed to COVID.
In that scenario we'd get 10,000 deaths.

The flaws in those numbers are as follows:-

**1. The 2000 deaths per million population is over the course of the pandemic and not 1 year.**
2. That scenario assumes no deaths for vaccinated people.
3. Getting to 80% may be hard.

More people would die of heart disease and dementia compared to COVID.

Lower vaccination rates would chance the picture completely. If we were completely unvaccinated you are looking at 50 000 deaths which would be our biggest killer by far.

Happy for anyone to come up with rougher figures or point our anything I missed.

The way I view it though is if we can somehow get people vaccinated this isn't a big issue. The unvaccinated will also develop COVID and then develop immunity so deaths should decrease over time.

If people don't get vaccinated this would be a catastrophe. People are getting vaccinated though. From yesterdays figures I get a figure of 56% first dose protected in NSW. If we get to 80% by end of this lockdown and people follow through I think we can basically beat this.

https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/australias-covid-19-vaccine-rollout

For every 528 people in the US a person has died of Covid-19. 1 in 528. Think about that for a minute. That probable equates to 1 person in every street or two has died of Covid-19 in the US.

It's about 2 percent of the population. It's freaken horrendous.

I get a couple of broad takings out of this:-

1. Lockdowns/border closures in Australia have saved so many lives.
2. The Delta strain coming late in the pandemic has been exceptionally lucky for us. It's bad it's here but if the virus was this contagious at the start I think we'd be similar to the UK or the US.
3. Vaccines are going to save so many lives.

I'm trying to avoid large numbers and percentages as most can't get their head around it, as it seems incomprehensible and meaningless to some. That and wont happen to me syndrome. Showing the numbers on a more personal and neighbourhood level and the light bulb goes on, at least for some.

I checked your figures and I think you've understated the number a little. Not much and it misses the point. The point is this is how do you get people to realize this is a disaster unlike anything we've ever seen in terms of loss of human life.

I'm amazed people still believe this is some sort of fraud. I see crazy anti-vaxxers/conspiracy theorists in America stating something is killing people but they don't know what it is that is killing people. Can you imagine it.

The rallies yesterday were full of people saying that the virus isn't real. So it is not just the USA.

It's a small percentage though. They are the crazy right/conspiracy theorists.

People are so easily led. There was one podcast referred to on here so confidently at one point. The people running it were smart people. They just weren't the right people to discuss COVID and they got it so wrong in my opinion it was criminal. The podcast was taken down because the information was so wrong.

I'm starting to think we've beaten this. I'm a bit too confident because the proviso is we get to 80% people fully vaccinated. If we do this I think at this point we've beaten COVID. We've beaten it with such a low mortality rate compared to other countries.

 

[cochise]

I find it annoying that some people say that the disease doesn't have the signs of a deadly one. They fail to realise that lockdown is one of the reasons.

I did some rough numbers on this.

UK/USA have had about 2000 deaths per million people. Data from here:- https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Australia has a population of about 25 million.
Say we get to 80% vaccinated and everyone who is vaccinated is safe. That leaves 20% of the population as the percentage exposed to COVID.
In that scenario we'd get 10,000 deaths.

The flaws in those numbers are as follows:-

**1. The 2000 deaths per million population is over the course of the pandemic and not 1 year.**
2. That scenario assumes no deaths for vaccinated people.
3. Getting to 80% may be hard.

More people would die of heart disease and dementia compared to COVID.

Lower vaccination rates would chance the picture completely. If we were completely unvaccinated you are looking at 50 000 deaths which would be our biggest killer by far.

Happy for anyone to come up with rougher figures or point our anything I missed.

The way I view it though is if we can somehow get people vaccinated this isn't a big issue. The unvaccinated will also develop COVID and then develop immunity so deaths should decrease over time.

If people don't get vaccinated this would be a catastrophe. People are getting vaccinated though. From yesterdays figures I get a figure of 56% first dose protected in NSW. If we get to 80% by end of this lockdown and people follow through I think we can basically beat this.

https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/australias-covid-19-vaccine-rollout

For every 528 people in the US a person has died of Covid-19. 1 in 528. Think about that for a minute. That probable equates to 1 person in every street or two has died of Covid-19 in the US.

It's about 2 percent of the population. It's freaken horrendous.

I get a couple of broad takings out of this:-

1. Lockdowns/border closures in Australia have saved so many lives.
2. The Delta strain coming late in the pandemic has been exceptionally lucky for us. It's bad it's here but if the virus was this contagious at the start I think we'd be similar to the UK or the US.
3. Vaccines are going to save so many lives.

I'm trying to avoid large numbers and percentages as most can't get their head around it, as it seems incomprehensible and meaningless to some. That and wont happen to me syndrome. Showing the numbers on a more personal and neighbourhood level and the light bulb goes on, at least for some.

I checked your figures and I think you've understated the number a little. Not much and it misses the point. The point is this is how do you get people to realize this is a disaster unlike anything we've ever seen in terms of loss of human life.

I'm amazed people still believe this is some sort of fraud. I see crazy anti-vaxxers/conspiracy theorists in America stating something is killing people but they don't know what it is that is killing people. Can you imagine it.

The rallies yesterday were full of people saying that the virus isn't real. So it is not just the USA.

It's a small percentage though. They are the crazy right/conspiracy theorists.

People are so easily led. There was one podcast referred to on here so confidently at one point. The people running it were smart people. They just weren't the right people to discuss COVID and they got it so wrong in my opinion it was criminal. The podcast was taken down because the information was so wrong.

I'm starting to think we've beaten this. I'm a bit too confident because the proviso is we get to 80% people fully vaccinated. If we do this I think at this point we've beaten COVID. We've beaten it with such a low mortality rate compared to other countries.

We really need to get past this idea of 0 covid cases though. The idea is you eventually have a lot of cases as with high vaccination rates you really lower the seriousness of the disease. I know you agree with this as well but I just think it is important to add to your point because at present I think we have a couple of states that are still going to push for border closures even after we hit 80%. A covid free society is just not possible, a lot of the virus' that cause the flu are variants of the Spanish Flu. Likewise I think we will see variants of covid circulating in the community in the future.

 

[innsaneink]


Read the comments under the post.

I know theres some frootloops out there
I made the mistake of commenting in a covid thread on FB in a group im in, some bloke
reckons the NSWs govts upcoming abolition of property title ownership is an agenda
behind covid

 

[swag_tiger]

940 infringement notices handed out yesterday. Goes to show how many people only think about themselves and think it's a inconvenience for themselves to do something for the greater good.

 

[earl]

I find it annoying that some people say that the disease doesn't have the signs of a deadly one. They fail to realise that lockdown is one of the reasons.

I did some rough numbers on this.

UK/USA have had about 2000 deaths per million people. Data from here:- https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Australia has a population of about 25 million.
Say we get to 80% vaccinated and everyone who is vaccinated is safe. That leaves 20% of the population as the percentage exposed to COVID.
In that scenario we'd get 10,000 deaths.

The flaws in those numbers are as follows:-

**1. The 2000 deaths per million population is over the course of the pandemic and not 1 year.**
2. That scenario assumes no deaths for vaccinated people.
3. Getting to 80% may be hard.

More people would die of heart disease and dementia compared to COVID.

Lower vaccination rates would chance the picture completely. If we were completely unvaccinated you are looking at 50 000 deaths which would be our biggest killer by far.

Happy for anyone to come up with rougher figures or point our anything I missed.

The way I view it though is if we can somehow get people vaccinated this isn't a big issue. The unvaccinated will also develop COVID and then develop immunity so deaths should decrease over time.

If people don't get vaccinated this would be a catastrophe. People are getting vaccinated though. From yesterdays figures I get a figure of 56% first dose protected in NSW. If we get to 80% by end of this lockdown and people follow through I think we can basically beat this.

https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/australias-covid-19-vaccine-rollout

For every 528 people in the US a person has died of Covid-19. 1 in 528. Think about that for a minute. That probable equates to 1 person in every street or two has died of Covid-19 in the US.

It's about 2 percent of the population. It's freaken horrendous.

I get a couple of broad takings out of this:-

1. Lockdowns/border closures in Australia have saved so many lives.
2. The Delta strain coming late in the pandemic has been exceptionally lucky for us. It's bad it's here but if the virus was this contagious at the start I think we'd be similar to the UK or the US.
3. Vaccines are going to save so many lives.

I'm trying to avoid large numbers and percentages as most can't get their head around it, as it seems incomprehensible and meaningless to some. That and wont happen to me syndrome. Showing the numbers on a more personal and neighbourhood level and the light bulb goes on, at least for some.

I checked your figures and I think you've understated the number a little. Not much and it misses the point. The point is this is how do you get people to realize this is a disaster unlike anything we've ever seen in terms of loss of human life.

I'm amazed people still believe this is some sort of fraud. I see crazy anti-vaxxers/conspiracy theorists in America stating something is killing people but they don't know what it is that is killing people. Can you imagine it.

The rallies yesterday were full of people saying that the virus isn't real. So it is not just the USA.

It's a small percentage though. They are the crazy right/conspiracy theorists.

People are so easily led. There was one podcast referred to on here so confidently at one point. The people running it were smart people. They just weren't the right people to discuss COVID and they got it so wrong in my opinion it was criminal. The podcast was taken down because the information was so wrong.

I'm starting to think we've beaten this. I'm a bit too confident because the proviso is we get to 80% people fully vaccinated. If we do this I think at this point we've beaten COVID. We've beaten it with such a low mortality rate compared to other countries.

We really need to get past this idea of 0 covid cases though. The idea is you eventually have a lot of cases as with high vaccination rates you really lower the seriousness of the disease. I know you agree with this as well but I just think it is important to add to your point because at present I think we have a couple of states that are still going to push for border closures even after we hit 80%. A covid free society is just not possible, a lot of the virus' that cause the flu are variants of the Spanish Flu. Likewise I think we will see variants of covid circulating in the community in the future.

This is just morons politicizing the issue. They should ban all hamburgers and steaks. It would have the same impact.

It's not my opinion either. It's the health advice. It's the policy options provided to government.

I think it's just noise that is going to go away very soon or those people are going to look like the fools they are.

 

[Nelson]

I find it annoying that some people say that the disease doesn't have the signs of a deadly one. They fail to realise that lockdown is one of the reasons.

I did some rough numbers on this.

UK/USA have had about 2000 deaths per million people. Data from here:- https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Australia has a population of about 25 million.
Say we get to 80% vaccinated and everyone who is vaccinated is safe. That leaves 20% of the population as the percentage exposed to COVID.
In that scenario we'd get 10,000 deaths.

The flaws in those numbers are as follows:-

**1. The 2000 deaths per million population is over the course of the pandemic and not 1 year.**
2. That scenario assumes no deaths for vaccinated people.
3. Getting to 80% may be hard.

More people would die of heart disease and dementia compared to COVID.

Lower vaccination rates would chance the picture completely. If we were completely unvaccinated you are looking at 50 000 deaths which would be our biggest killer by far.

Happy for anyone to come up with rougher figures or point our anything I missed.

The way I view it though is if we can somehow get people vaccinated this isn't a big issue. The unvaccinated will also develop COVID and then develop immunity so deaths should decrease over time.

If people don't get vaccinated this would be a catastrophe. People are getting vaccinated though. From yesterdays figures I get a figure of 56% first dose protected in NSW. If we get to 80% by end of this lockdown and people follow through I think we can basically beat this.

https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/australias-covid-19-vaccine-rollout

For every 528 people in the US a person has died of Covid-19. 1 in 528. Think about that for a minute. That probable equates to 1 person in every street or two has died of Covid-19 in the US.

It's about 2 percent of the population. It's freaken horrendous.

I get a couple of broad takings out of this:-

1. Lockdowns/border closures in Australia have saved so many lives.
2. The Delta strain coming late in the pandemic has been exceptionally lucky for us. It's bad it's here but if the virus was this contagious at the start I think we'd be similar to the UK or the US.
3. Vaccines are going to save so many lives.

It is well below 2% of the people who have died from covid it is less than 0.3%.It is still far too many and high vaccine use should reduce the figure even more.The nutters on the right wing of politics(mainly in the USA) are the ones leading the antivax brigade and making the situation worse.We should all be thankful we dont live in the USA as they still have a main political party refusing to give full support to either vaccinations or mask wearing.At least here we have bipartisan support on doing so even if a few from the right are actively in denial.

Just to be clear the figure in the US and the UK is about 2% of the population. I am not talking about 2% of the infected population.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

USA - 1,935 deaths per million people
UK - 1,927deaths per million people

I assume your figure is Australia only.

Australia - 38 deaths per million people

I am still fuming about the dribble that people have stated in relation to COVID. This disinformation has been intense and also intensely stupid.

I've been listening to proper sources and proper information the whole time and sure enough the information has been basically perfect. The health advice has been spot on because they have been using the best information.

People have politicized this issue and completely not cared about the facts. I view what is going on in America as criminal.

The facts are this mountain of data that gets crunched and it's the best data I've ever seen in my life.

2% of 1 million is 20,000 not 2,000. It is about 0.2% of the population.

 

[earl]

Likewise I think we will see variants of covid circulating in the community in the future.

Maybe but this is not a big issue. Here is the thing. The delta stain is twice as contagious. It isn't that contagious if you've already had COVID and the vaccines are holding up exceptionally well against the Delta strain.

I have some cutting science on booster shots now. This is not mainstream and verified in massive data sets like previous information so it could be wrong when we get better data.

Politicians (and big Pharma) are the ones pushing booster shots now but there is some evidence (which means actual scientific papers) that exposing us to COVID post getting fully vaccinated may lead to greater long term immunity. We may end up with one of two booster shots but maybe it won't even be required.

This is like the Tigers winning the comp to me. The case is getting stronger and stronger that a double dose of vaccination is going to protect you (and therefore society) and then we should vaccinate all the poor countries and like magic in 5 years time COVID won't be a problem.

Can you imagine that ?

 

[earl]

2% of 1 million is 20,000 not 2,000. It is about 0.2% of the population.

Thank you. I stuffed it. That is good feedback. It's still massive though isn't it.

 

[Nelson]

I find it annoying that some people say that the disease doesn't have the signs of a deadly one. They fail to realise that lockdown is one of the reasons.

I did some rough numbers on this.

UK/USA have had about 2000 deaths per million people. Data from here:- https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Australia has a population of about 25 million.
Say we get to 80% vaccinated and everyone who is vaccinated is safe. That leaves 20% of the population as the percentage exposed to COVID.
In that scenario we'd get 10,000 deaths.

The flaws in those numbers are as follows:-

**1. The 2000 deaths per million population is over the course of the pandemic and not 1 year.**
2. That scenario assumes no deaths for vaccinated people.
3. Getting to 80% may be hard.

More people would die of heart disease and dementia compared to COVID.

Lower vaccination rates would chance the picture completely. If we were completely unvaccinated you are looking at 50 000 deaths which would be our biggest killer by far.

Happy for anyone to come up with rougher figures or point our anything I missed.

The way I view it though is if we can somehow get people vaccinated this isn't a big issue. The unvaccinated will also develop COVID and then develop immunity so deaths should decrease over time.

If people don't get vaccinated this would be a catastrophe. People are getting vaccinated though. From yesterdays figures I get a figure of 56% first dose protected in NSW. If we get to 80% by end of this lockdown and people follow through I think we can basically beat this.

https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/australias-covid-19-vaccine-rollout

For every 528 people in the US a person has died of Covid-19. 1 in 528. Think about that for a minute. That probable equates to 1 person in every street or two has died of Covid-19 in the US.

It's about 2 percent of the population. It's freaken horrendous.

I get a couple of broad takings out of this:-

1. Lockdowns/border closures in Australia have saved so many lives.
2. The Delta strain coming late in the pandemic has been exceptionally lucky for us. It's bad it's here but if the virus was this contagious at the start I think we'd be similar to the UK or the US.
3. Vaccines are going to save so many lives.

I'm trying to avoid large numbers and percentages as most can't get their head around it, as it seems incomprehensible and meaningless to some. That and wont happen to me syndrome. Showing the numbers on a more personal and neighbourhood level and the light bulb goes on, at least for some.

I checked your figures and I think you've understated the number a little. Not much and it misses the point. The point is this is how do you get people to realize this is a disaster unlike anything we've ever seen in terms of loss of human life.

I'm amazed people still believe this is some sort of fraud. I see crazy anti-vaxxers/conspiracy theorists in America stating something is killing people but they don't know what it is that is killing people. Can you imagine it.

The rallies yesterday were full of people saying that the virus isn't real. So it is not just the USA.

It's a small percentage though. They are the crazy right/conspiracy theorists.

People are so easily led. There was one podcast referred to on here so confidently at one point. The people running it were smart people. They just weren't the right people to discuss COVID and they got it so wrong in my opinion it was criminal. The podcast was taken down because the information was so wrong.

I'm starting to think we've beaten this. I'm a bit too confident because the proviso is we get to 80% people fully vaccinated. If we do this I think at this point we've beaten COVID. We've beaten it with such a low mortality rate compared to other countries.

We really need to get past this idea of 0 covid cases though. The idea is you eventually have a lot of cases as with high vaccination rates you really lower the seriousness of the disease. I know you agree with this as well but I just think it is important to add to your point because at present I think we have a couple of states that are still going to push for border closures even after we hit 80%. A covid free society is just not possible, a lot of the virus' that cause the flu are variants of the Spanish Flu. Likewise I think we will see variants of covid circulating in the community in the future.

It was feasible to have a zero COVID approach prior to this outbreak, at least until vaccination rates hit desirable targets across the country. I don't think it's feasible any longer. If COVID is running free in NSW then there is little point in the other states trying to maintain hard borders for any length of time as they just won't work. They'll constantly be beset by little seeding events by rule breakers and even honest mistakes and will be forced back into lockdowns. NSW is just too big a population and too big an economic centre for the other states to effectively shut it out to the extent that would be needed to contain this delta strain. WA might be able to get away with it because there are borders between borders, but that's it.

 

[Guest]

940 infringement notices handed out yesterday. Goes to show how many people only think about themselves and think it's a inconvenience for themselves to do something for the greater good.

Some people obviously have deep pockets if they can afford a 5k whack to leave their home and do the wrong thing.

 

[cochise]

I find it annoying that some people say that the disease doesn't have the signs of a deadly one. They fail to realise that lockdown is one of the reasons.

I did some rough numbers on this.

UK/USA have had about 2000 deaths per million people. Data from here:- https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Australia has a population of about 25 million.
Say we get to 80% vaccinated and everyone who is vaccinated is safe. That leaves 20% of the population as the percentage exposed to COVID.
In that scenario we'd get 10,000 deaths.

The flaws in those numbers are as follows:-

**1. The 2000 deaths per million population is over the course of the pandemic and not 1 year.**
2. That scenario assumes no deaths for vaccinated people.
3. Getting to 80% may be hard.

More people would die of heart disease and dementia compared to COVID.

Lower vaccination rates would chance the picture completely. If we were completely unvaccinated you are looking at 50 000 deaths which would be our biggest killer by far.

Happy for anyone to come up with rougher figures or point our anything I missed.

The way I view it though is if we can somehow get people vaccinated this isn't a big issue. The unvaccinated will also develop COVID and then develop immunity so deaths should decrease over time.

If people don't get vaccinated this would be a catastrophe. People are getting vaccinated though. From yesterdays figures I get a figure of 56% first dose protected in NSW. If we get to 80% by end of this lockdown and people follow through I think we can basically beat this.

https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/australias-covid-19-vaccine-rollout

For every 528 people in the US a person has died of Covid-19. 1 in 528. Think about that for a minute. That probable equates to 1 person in every street or two has died of Covid-19 in the US.

It's about 2 percent of the population. It's freaken horrendous.

I get a couple of broad takings out of this:-

1. Lockdowns/border closures in Australia have saved so many lives.
2. The Delta strain coming late in the pandemic has been exceptionally lucky for us. It's bad it's here but if the virus was this contagious at the start I think we'd be similar to the UK or the US.
3. Vaccines are going to save so many lives.

I'm trying to avoid large numbers and percentages as most can't get their head around it, as it seems incomprehensible and meaningless to some. That and wont happen to me syndrome. Showing the numbers on a more personal and neighbourhood level and the light bulb goes on, at least for some.

I checked your figures and I think you've understated the number a little. Not much and it misses the point. The point is this is how do you get people to realize this is a disaster unlike anything we've ever seen in terms of loss of human life.

I'm amazed people still believe this is some sort of fraud. I see crazy anti-vaxxers/conspiracy theorists in America stating something is killing people but they don't know what it is that is killing people. Can you imagine it.

The rallies yesterday were full of people saying that the virus isn't real. So it is not just the USA.

It's a small percentage though. They are the crazy right/conspiracy theorists.

People are so easily led. There was one podcast referred to on here so confidently at one point. The people running it were smart people. They just weren't the right people to discuss COVID and they got it so wrong in my opinion it was criminal. The podcast was taken down because the information was so wrong.

I'm starting to think we've beaten this. I'm a bit too confident because the proviso is we get to 80% people fully vaccinated. If we do this I think at this point we've beaten COVID. We've beaten it with such a low mortality rate compared to other countries.

We really need to get past this idea of 0 covid cases though. The idea is you eventually have a lot of cases as with high vaccination rates you really lower the seriousness of the disease. I know you agree with this as well but I just think it is important to add to your point because at present I think we have a couple of states that are still going to push for border closures even after we hit 80%. A covid free society is just not possible, a lot of the virus' that cause the flu are variants of the Spanish Flu. Likewise I think we will see variants of covid circulating in the community in the future.

It was feasible to have a zero COVID approach prior to this outbreak, at least until vaccination rates hit desirable targets across the country. I don't think it's feasible any longer. If COVID is running free in NSW then there is little point in the other states trying to maintain hard borders for any length of time as they just won't work. They'll constantly be beset by little seeding events by rule breakers and even honest mistakes and will be forced back into lockdowns. NSW is just too big a population and too big an economic centre for the other states to effectively shut it out to the extent that would be needed to contain this delta strain. WA might be able to get away with it because there are borders between borders, but that's it.

I don't think it was feasible even before this outbreak, that would have meant cutting ourselves off from the rest of the world for a very long time and that is just not feasible.

 

[earl]

I find it annoying that some people say that the disease doesn't have the signs of a deadly one. They fail to realise that lockdown is one of the reasons.

I did some rough numbers on this.

UK/USA have had about 2000 deaths per million people. Data from here:- https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Australia has a population of about 25 million.
Say we get to 80% vaccinated and everyone who is vaccinated is safe. That leaves 20% of the population as the percentage exposed to COVID.
In that scenario we'd get 10,000 deaths.

The flaws in those numbers are as follows:-

**1. The 2000 deaths per million population is over the course of the pandemic and not 1 year.**
2. That scenario assumes no deaths for vaccinated people.
3. Getting to 80% may be hard.

More people would die of heart disease and dementia compared to COVID.

Lower vaccination rates would chance the picture completely. If we were completely unvaccinated you are looking at 50 000 deaths which would be our biggest killer by far.

Happy for anyone to come up with rougher figures or point our anything I missed.

The way I view it though is if we can somehow get people vaccinated this isn't a big issue. The unvaccinated will also develop COVID and then develop immunity so deaths should decrease over time.

If people don't get vaccinated this would be a catastrophe. People are getting vaccinated though. From yesterdays figures I get a figure of 56% first dose protected in NSW. If we get to 80% by end of this lockdown and people follow through I think we can basically beat this.

https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/australias-covid-19-vaccine-rollout

For every 528 people in the US a person has died of Covid-19. 1 in 528. Think about that for a minute. That probable equates to 1 person in every street or two has died of Covid-19 in the US.

It's about 2 percent of the population. It's freaken horrendous.

I get a couple of broad takings out of this:-

1. Lockdowns/border closures in Australia have saved so many lives.
2. The Delta strain coming late in the pandemic has been exceptionally lucky for us. It's bad it's here but if the virus was this contagious at the start I think we'd be similar to the UK or the US.
3. Vaccines are going to save so many lives.

I'm trying to avoid large numbers and percentages as most can't get their head around it, as it seems incomprehensible and meaningless to some. That and wont happen to me syndrome. Showing the numbers on a more personal and neighbourhood level and the light bulb goes on, at least for some.

I checked your figures and I think you've understated the number a little. Not much and it misses the point. The point is this is how do you get people to realize this is a disaster unlike anything we've ever seen in terms of loss of human life.

I'm amazed people still believe this is some sort of fraud. I see crazy anti-vaxxers/conspiracy theorists in America stating something is killing people but they don't know what it is that is killing people. Can you imagine it.

The rallies yesterday were full of people saying that the virus isn't real. So it is not just the USA.

It's a small percentage though. They are the crazy right/conspiracy theorists.

People are so easily led. There was one podcast referred to on here so confidently at one point. The people running it were smart people. They just weren't the right people to discuss COVID and they got it so wrong in my opinion it was criminal. The podcast was taken down because the information was so wrong.

I'm starting to think we've beaten this. I'm a bit too confident because the proviso is we get to 80% people fully vaccinated. If we do this I think at this point we've beaten COVID. We've beaten it with such a low mortality rate compared to other countries.

We really need to get past this idea of 0 covid cases though. The idea is you eventually have a lot of cases as with high vaccination rates you really lower the seriousness of the disease. I know you agree with this as well but I just think it is important to add to your point because at present I think we have a couple of states that are still going to push for border closures even after we hit 80%. A covid free society is just not possible, a lot of the virus' that cause the flu are variants of the Spanish Flu. Likewise I think we will see variants of covid circulating in the community in the future.

It was feasible to have a zero COVID approach prior to this outbreak, at least until vaccination rates hit desirable targets across the country. I don't think it's feasible any longer. If COVID is running free in NSW then there is little point in the other states trying to maintain hard borders for any length of time as they just won't work. They'll constantly be beset by little seeding events by rule breakers and even honest mistakes and will be forced back into lockdowns. NSW is just too big a population and too big an economic centre for the other states to effectively shut it out to the extent that would be needed to contain this delta strain. WA might be able to get away with it because there are borders between borders, but that's it.

It's outright stupid and it's outright politicizing the issue and that has nothing to do with NSW. The vaccines change the picture completely.

You can compare having a zero COVID policy to stopping people eating meat.

We need to be rational and use facts.

 

[cochise]

940 infringement notices handed out yesterday. Goes to show how many people only think about themselves and think it's a inconvenience for themselves to do something for the greater good.

Some people obviously have deep pockets if they can afford a 5k whack to leave their home and do the wrong thing.

Josh Dugan obviously got paid too much to play football.

 

[Nelson]

2% of 1 million is 20,000 not 2,000. It is about 0.2% of the population.

Thank you. I stuffed it. That is good feedback. It's still massive though isn't it.

Yes an event in which ~1 in 500 head of population die within an 18 month period is massive.

 

[earl]

Yes an event in which ~1 in 500 head of population die within an 18 month period is massive.

It's crazy. I want to be clear in that the lockdown and follow an aggressive suppression policy in the absence of vaccines has clearly been an awesome policy decision.

Once vaccines are available it's crazy to continue that policy.

I'm getting way overconfident because the news is becoming so positive now. If the vaccination rates continue to climb I believe we've beaten COVID.

Beating COVID does not mean 0 deaths or 0 cases. It just means that the rate of hospitalization and deaths means COVID is just another respiratory disease that people die from.

One more point is you should get vaccinated. That 1 in 500 figure may be the unvaccinated deaths that occur going forward. That isn't good.