happy_tiger
Well-known member
@jirskyr said in [Four point game / a literal 'must win'\.\.\.](/post/1198206) said:@851 said in [Four point game / a literal 'must win'\.\.\.](/post/1197961) said:@jirskyr said in [Four point game / a literal 'must win'\.\.\.](/post/1197959) said:@851 said in [Four point game / a literal 'must win'\.\.\.](/post/1197880) said:@Jedi_Tiger said in [Four point game / a literal 'must win'\.\.\.](/post/1197631) said:it is so depressing every year we end up in this situation
we need Broncos to kick into gear and wun some games peg some teams back
Every year you are right, we lose the games we should win and end up in this situation, the Titans and Warriors games are going to burn us as usual, we are still a mentally weak club
I think this thinking is wrong, I've been saying it all year. There are no "games you should win", it's about turning up every week and focusing on your consistency of performance. If that happens, the wins come; and you don't rehash your losses, you learn from them.
The NRL isn't such a polar competition that the bottom-ranked sides aren't competitive. Bulldogs for instance have only won 2 matches but 6 of their losses have been by less than 6 points, including both losses to Parramatta. Bulldogs went on an admirable winning run last year despite finishing 12th. Sharks are probably going to make the 8 and they've lost 3 matches to teams currently placed 8 or lower (Souths, Tigers, Dragons).
The real games you need to watch for, as per the OP, are the matches against your similarly-placed opposition. A loss against Souths or Knights effectively a 4-point turnaround at this time of year.
I don't buy it, if we have any designs on a top 8 finish we don't lose to Titans and Warriors, same thing every year, and we finish bottom 8 because we deserve to
That just doesn't happen. Top 8 sides lose to Bottom 8 sides.
Yes, if you manage to beat every Bottom 8 side every match in a season, you are probably playing finals football, because that will have you near enough to 50% win rate.
But I guarantee you the sides placed 5 to 8 have taken losses against Bottom 8 sides. Every match is important. But I think most important are the matches against the opposition near to you on the table, and your competitiveness against the other finals-bound sides. No point making the Top 8 if you can only beat Bottom 8 sides.
And if you get to the end of the season and you are one win short of the finals, it's a mistake to look at one specific match against a lower-ranked opposition and say "that's the one". No, it's all the losses, particularly any large margins which kills your F/A.
The Titans match was important not because it was the Titans, but because we had it won with 2 minutes to go and couldn't close it out.
We can't make the 8 if we can't beat Top 8 sides ...now we will need to knock of at least 4 Top 8 sides