Looking at the finalists thus far..

[happy_tiger]

best stats

Best STAT. I still think it's an interesting but obscure table.

Far more effective and direct predictor - defence, i.e. points conceded during season. The two teams in the GF are the two teams that finished top of the ladder, hardly a surprise. They also have the best defensive records in the comp. Also hardly a surprise and a far more direct predictor of ladder position.

In fact you can predict the Top 5 2020 simply from points conceded, almost in perfect order: Panthers (238), Storm (276), Eels (288), Roosters (322), Raiders (317). Independent of points scored. Bottom 4 teams also in bottom 5 for points conceded, with Tigers being the only anomaly on account of a strong points-for (Tigers scored more points in 2020 than Newcastle and Parramatta).

Broncos had by far the worst defence, again a clear predictor of last. It's the only thing that kept Bulldogs from the spoon.

Yeah but if your 1,6,7 and 9 can't dominate you won't win a premiership ...would you also say the best fit spines are in the GF as well

 

[Tigerbuck63]

best stats

Best STAT. I still think it's an interesting but obscure table.

Far more effective and direct predictor - defence, i.e. points conceded during season. The two teams in the GF are the two teams that finished top of the ladder, hardly a surprise. They also have the best defensive records in the comp. Also hardly a surprise and a far more direct predictor of ladder position.

In fact you can predict the Top 5 2020 simply from points conceded, almost in perfect order: Panthers (238), Storm (276), Eels (288), Roosters (322), Raiders (317). Independent of points scored. Bottom 4 teams also in bottom 5 for points conceded, with Tigers being the only anomaly on account of a strong points-for (Tigers scored more points in 2020 than Newcastle and Parramatta).

Broncos had by far the worst defence, again a clear predictor of last. It's the only thing that kept Bulldogs from the spoon.

Yeah but if your 1,6,7 and 9 can't dominate you won't win a premiership ...would you also say the best fit spines are in the GF as well

Lets just hope its a good game worth of a GF and that the refs don't get the final say. Most Qlder's i assume will adopt the Storm as they played most games up the sunshine coast.

 

[happy_tiger]

best stats

Best STAT. I still think it's an interesting but obscure table.

Far more effective and direct predictor - defence, i.e. points conceded during season. The two teams in the GF are the two teams that finished top of the ladder, hardly a surprise. They also have the best defensive records in the comp. Also hardly a surprise and a far more direct predictor of ladder position.

In fact you can predict the Top 5 2020 simply from points conceded, almost in perfect order: Panthers (238), Storm (276), Eels (288), Roosters (322), Raiders (317). Independent of points scored. Bottom 4 teams also in bottom 5 for points conceded, with Tigers being the only anomaly on account of a strong points-for (Tigers scored more points in 2020 than Newcastle and Parramatta).

Broncos had by far the worst defence, again a clear predictor of last. It's the only thing that kept Bulldogs from the spoon.

Yeah but if your 1,6,7 and 9 can't dominate you won't win a premiership ...would you also say the best fit spines are in the GF as well


Lets just hope its a good game worth of a GF and that the refs don't get the final say. Most Qlder's i assume will adopt the Storm as they played most games up the sunshine coast.

And Cam Smith obviously .....Qld legend

 

[diedpretty]

Yea that graph doesn't really tell you much - one of the stats is the % of play the balls in opposition 20. its a pretty meaningless stat unless you add the number of tries a side scores from play the balls in the opposition 20. Manly for instance have a good % of PB in the 20 metre zone but are low in overall try scoring which also includes long range tries. Stats and graphs mean nothing unless you can correlate them with outcomes.

 

[fibrodreaming]

In my opinion the table confirms my belief that our troubles begin and end with our forwards.

I'm not saying you are wrong, but if we are talking about analysis of forwards performance, why would we be looking at an obscure stat like "tackled in own half"? As I said, there are a large number of reasons why you might spend time camped in your own half, including poor kick return metres from back 3, poor kick pressure, bad kicking options on your 5th tackle etc.

If we are going to look at forwards, it's much more straightforward to just look at performance of the forwards - run metres, metres per carry and per minute, post-contact metres, tackles, tackle effectiveness.

I agree that there could be many reasons for a team spending so much time in its own half.

I also agree that the individual stats for the forwards would be more instructive than the rather broad brush stat of ptb's in one's own half.

The reason I embraced the stat was because it supported my suspicion that our forwards' "run metres, metres per carry and per minute, post-contact metres, tackles, tackle effectiveness", are, collectively, probably one of the worst in the NRL (perhaps with the exception of the Broncos), which would explain why we spent so much time in our own half.

I note that you don't necessarily disagree with my conclusion, but point out that the stat does not constitute proof. You'r right of course. It is just another stat that is consistent with the contention that our forwards are not up to it.

 

[Harvey]

not sure where to put this, but


would also be interesting to see the reverse of this, i.e. where a teams opponents were playing the ball.

Teams made easy metres against us. I would suggest that we would be among the lowest percentage of opposition teams playing the ball in their own half

 

[Geo]

Wests Tigers also dropped the ball a lot before half way therefore hereto leading to less tackles in the opposition half and more defending in our own half

 

[happy_tiger]

Wests Tigers also dropped the ball a lot before half way therefore hereto leading to less tackles in the opposition half and more defending in our own half

Who dropped it the most ??

 

[hank37w]

Looking back over the years, probably the board that dropped the ball the most.

 

[mike]

Looking back over the years, probably the board that dropped the ball the most.

Ya think !!!! Understatement much.

 

[hank37w]

Admittedly some of the players were not far behind.

 

[tig_prmz]

really crap kicking and chasing, along with losing the ruck (6 agains/penalties) and unforced errors are the main reason we have spent the least amount of time in opposition 20.

Interestingly, we have still scored a lot of points, mainly thanks to Benji's try assisting brilliance

I'm super worried about next year. For once, I don't thin we will finish from 9-12. I think we will either win the spoon (or go close) or spring a surprise and make it into the 8 (unlikely)

 

[rustycage]

I'm guessing everyone on the Forum barring Fade to Black are hoping the Storm win

I'm probably leaning towards the riff. Difference for me is i dislike Melbourne as a club. Whereas I dislike Cleary as a person. That and Cam Smith deserves to go out a loser.

 

[tony soprano]

Come to think of it wonder why Bennett’s didn’t play masters at centre

 

[GNR4LIFE]

I'm guessing everyone on the Forum barring Fade to Black are hoping the Storm win

I'm probably leaning towards the riff. Difference for me is i dislike Melbourne as a club. Whereas I dislike Cleary as a person. That and Cam Smith deserves to go out a loser.

He might not go out at all if they lose.

 

[rustycage]

I'm guessing everyone on the Forum barring Fade to Black are hoping the Storm win

I'm probably leaning towards the riff. Difference for me is i dislike Melbourne as a club. Whereas I dislike Cleary as a person. That and Cam Smith deserves to go out a loser.

He might not go out at all if they lose.

He'll go out imo.

 

[tony soprano]

Think panthers going to win unfortunately it’s a cruel cruel world.

 

[Russell]

Think panthers going to win unfortunately it’s a cruel cruel world.

Guess you're off to join the circus.

 

[Tigerbuck63]

Think panthers going to win unfortunately it’s a cruel cruel world.

Panthers are showing there lack of experience in finals football, so far does not mean they won't peak on the day.

Penrith - $2.25
Storm - $1.70
Line is +2.5 start Penrith.

Storm will want to send out Smith a winner.

 

[barra]

I'm guessing everyone on the Forum barring Fade to Black are hoping the Storm win

What a bunch of petty, bitter people they are!

And I'm totally with them!!

Can't believe I'm thinking this let alone typing it, but Storm to win!

And smash Cleary's dream to pieces please!