Manly’s mad professor (another miss by Pascoe?)

[GNR4LIFE]

What nonsense, there is one bloke that was the difference between manly being top 4 side or getting an early holiday, he will be wearing the no.1 jersey on Friday night. Literally everyone else is interchangeable.

Spot on. They are the biggest one man band since Wham.

 

[jirskyr]

All the top teams have the same gameplan. Win the middle and spread it wide early, kick deep into the corners then literally cheat and give 6 agains away to pin them in their own end

That's right, and it depends entirely on being able to win the middle, and then have anyone of threat to spread it to.

Tedesco, Turbo, Latrell, Gutherson, Kikau etc. These players tell you why the top teams are successful at spreading the footy.

 

[boonboon]

Can i just state as a numbers man myself that anyone looking for correlations not causations isnt the guy Id want

 

[crazycat]

want

Correlations are fine.

You don't need to spot on identify the cause, if you realise "hey 9/10 times a team plays to our left they break our line" you look deeper.
A lot of people don't understand statistics, you look for Patterns. Correlations lead to the discovery of Causation's. Naturally you will find some unlinked correlations. Perhaps every time it rains a field goal is scored. Then 5 more rainy games and no field goal. Randomness happens.

Honestly though, the tigers don't need a Boffin like this. Haslier's style has been deep in statistics. It works for him.
I doubt it would work for us unless you got the right mind that goes "hey we need to do this on the field. Haslier gets that and Bellamy would, Madge less so. Maybe if he was told "x thing is key" he would train it up, maybe not. Madge seems stuck in his structure.

 

[jirskyr]

Can i just state as a numbers man myself that anyone looking for correlations not causations isnt the guy Id want

"Hey Dessie, I just found out some interesting correlations - every time we win footy we do so on a grass pitch. Also we typically win by margins greater than the total number of seagulls that land during the match."

 

[TigerWest]

Can i just state as a numbers man myself that anyone looking for correlations not causations isnt the guy Id want

"Hey Dessie, I just found out some interesting correlations - every time we win footy we do so on a grass pitch. Also we typically win by margins greater than the total number of seagulls that land during the match."

He also crunched the numbers to find that they have a 90% chance of winning when Tommy plays???

 

[jirskyr]

Can i just state as a numbers man myself that anyone looking for correlations not causations isnt the guy Id want

"Hey Dessie, I just found out some interesting correlations - every time we win footy we do so on a grass pitch. Also we typically win by margins greater than the total number of seagulls that land during the match."

He also crunched the numbers to find that they have a 90% chance of winning when Tommy plays???

That would actually be a causation, though an obvious one.

 

[gallagher]

Feels like someone has the shits that this 'moron' has an NRL gig. He probably knows stuff all about peaches and their fury skin.

 

[Magpie_Magic]

Club's like Easts and Manly that are successful seem to bend the salary cap then get the rules tweaked and then have the right referees appointed who interpret the rules to suit.
That seems to be the cause.
And it correlates to us following a losing side.

Roy's Magpies tried to upend that correlation in the late 70s by a combination of skill, tactics and brute force and nearly pulled it off.
But it caused Wests to be kicked out soon after.

The WT have to find a way to cheat and get away with it.

 

[twentyforty]

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/nrl/the-nutty-statistic-that-has-manly-s-mad-professor-on-cusp-of-grand-final-20210923-p58u3t.html

The nutty statistic that has Manly’s mad professor on cusp of grand final
Roy Masters
By Roy Masters
September 23, 2021 — 11.30am








Manly coach, Des Hasler, is rugby league’s last remaining Mad Professor, an endearing sight at press conferences, tie askew and hair uncut and uncombed, in an era where most executives turn up in a “I earn half-a-million dollars a year” uniform of blue suit coat and unbuttoned crisp white shirt.

He’ll be at his enigmatic best after Friday night’s preliminary final against South Sydney, given the myriad explanations for the ways games are won and lost.


Ahead of their blockbuster preliminary final, here are five things you need to know about the Rabbitohs and Sea Eagles.

He has an assistant, Ramy Haidar, whose official title is “innovation consultant”, although Haidar prefers “synthesist.“

If Hasler is a demon for numbers, trawling through statistics in the early hours, Haidar is even more fixated.

“I like to collate information and search for correlations,” he said. “My focus becomes extremely narrow.“

He adds, by way of explanation in a code where missing teeth are more common than university degrees, “I have been diagnosed with Asperger’s.”


The joint research of Hasler and Haidar suggests they are close to “synthesising” the field position versus possession conundrum which to some football coaches is equivalent to the unified theory of physics which stumped Einstein.

Over the past decade, in most team ball sports, possession has become more important than field position.



In rugby union, the ball in hand is everything with endless phases on the opposition line, whereas in the past it rarely went past the five-eighth without being kicked by the No.10.

In the AFL, players kick backwards to teammates to maintain possession, rather than boot the ball downfield and risk losing it.

“Teams with higher completion rates tend to lose more often, while those who use the ball, win.”

Only dear soccer, the world game, still values position equally, given it is impossible to kick a goal from your own line.

The NRL has propelled the game further towards possession, with a six-again rule replacing a penalty which previously allowed a team to kick for territory.

NRL coaches, following a loss, will give more attention to “our poor completion rate” than “playing the game in the opposition half.“

Yet, consider the paradoxes. This year, the Bulldogs, came last, yet had the highest completion rate in the NRL.

The NRL’s better teams throw the ball around more, which leads to more errors.


The 2019 Roosters won the premiership, yet amassed a whopping 311 errors through the season.

The 2021 Bulldogs did little with the ball, opting for conservative play, whereas the 2019 Roosters embraced risk.

The better teams play more expansively, passing the ball more often, leading to more errors and lower completion rates.

Haidar reached this conclusion after being tasked by Hasler to feed multiple statistics into a computer, such as metres gained, line breaks, tackles made, penalties, and isolate the most significant factor in a win.

Haidar found that in the period between 2017 and 2021, across the NRL, the correlation between “possessions” – the number of times the ball is received in hand- and win percentage was 0.76, a close relationship.

Yet over the same period, the correlation between the standard “completion rate” and win percentage, was a negative 0.27, an inverse relationship.

That is, teams with higher completion rates tend to lose more often, while those who use the ball, win.

So, for a man who obsesses about small things, the fifth “s” in possessions is very important.

According to Haidar, “possessions” is the amount of ball receipts, whereas “possession” measures total time with the ball.


A Lebanese Muslim, Haidar is one of many young men of similar background who have contacted me over the years seeking more knowledge of rugby league.

In Haidar’s case, he likens himself to the Moneyball character who used overlooked statistics to build an Oakland Athletics team low on recognised stars but only eliminated by eventual World Series champions Anaheim.


Haidar won a media award for catching out the A-League’s Newcastle Jets for buying fake followers online.



**Hasler hired him at the beginning of the year after Wests Tigers, who also showed interest via coach Michael Maguire, were slow in contracting him.**


Asked how advanced he is in creating a statistical map where all the game-day variables synthesise, he admitted to trying to collate everything into a unified theory.

Given the significant role referees have in rugby league, this would seem a doomed venture. But he remains fixated on the task.

Asked if his statistical analysis could point to the 2021 premiership winner, he mentioned the 2019 premiers, the Roosters, who made most errors in the season.

So, which NRL team had the lowest completion rate at the end of the 2021 regular season?

Manly.
```
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I see, so it’s what you do with the ball when you have it?
Ive always loved what Roy Masters has to say.
The bulldogs may realise that when they have the ball the opposition can’t score, however, the game has changed from a defence focus to a more free flowing, attacking game like the Roosters produce.
Haidar’s statistical analysis provides valuable insight into saving time and energy, and a focus on what coaches should not do, but it doesn’t provide solutions on how to win. For that you need highly motivated, skilful players playing as a team. Tim Sheens knew what was needed with a more Temple Grandin approach.

 

[happy_tiger]

What nonsense, there is one bloke that was the difference between manly being top 4 side or getting an early holiday, he will be wearing the no.1 jersey on Friday night. Literally everyone else is interchangeable.

Yep ...and if the WT's had a completion rate like the Roosters they would get lapped every week

Two words that I have repeated time and time and time again ..forget assistant coaches , completion rates and any other dribble these journos can think of

PLAYER TALENT .....

VERY LITTLE ELSE MATTERS IF YOU HAVE A GOOD COACH

 

[barra]

I like Dessie's hair..

Me too

Man I laughed when he walked out for the presser. "Proper clown hair", was my first thought! Not that he'd care in the least...

 

[TCL]

tommy turbo

 

[Needaname]

What nonsense, there is one bloke that was the difference between manly being top 4 side or getting an early holiday, he will be wearing the no.1 jersey on Friday night. Literally everyone else is interchangeable.

Yep ...and if the WT's had a completion rate like the Roosters they would get lapped every week

Two words that I have repeated time and time and time again ..forget assistant coaches , completion rates and any other dribble these journos can think of

PLAYER TALENT .....

VERY LITTLE ELSE MATTERS IF YOU HAVE A GOOD COACH

Question; who in your opinion was the most talentless team to win a premiership in the past 20 or so years. Let’s say since the start of the NRL 1998.

 

[Demps]

What nonsense, there is one bloke that was the difference between manly being top 4 side or getting an early holiday, he will be wearing the no.1 jersey on Friday night. Literally everyone else is interchangeable.

Yep ...and if the WT's had a completion rate like the Roosters they would get lapped every week

Two words that I have repeated time and time and time again ..forget assistant coaches , completion rates and any other dribble these journos can think of

PLAYER TALENT .....

VERY LITTLE ELSE MATTERS IF YOU HAVE A GOOD COACH

Question; who in your opinion was the most talentless team to win a premiership in the past 20 or so years. Let’s say since the start of the NRL 1998.

I'm not going to answer for Happy...

But I'd go with NQ 2015
Or Sharks 2016

 

[Needaname]

What nonsense, there is one bloke that was the difference between manly being top 4 side or getting an early holiday, he will be wearing the no.1 jersey on Friday night. Literally everyone else is interchangeable.

Yep ...and if the WT's had a completion rate like the Roosters they would get lapped every week

Two words that I have repeated time and time and time again ..forget assistant coaches , completion rates and any other dribble these journos can think of

PLAYER TALENT .....

VERY LITTLE ELSE MATTERS IF YOU HAVE A GOOD COACH

Question; who in your opinion was the most talentless team to win a premiership in the past 20 or so years. Let’s say since the start of the NRL 1998.

I'm not going to answer for Happy...

But I'd go with NQ 2015
Or Sharks 2016

It’s hard to say, one of team you mentioned had a 1 Dally M winner, 2x Premiership winners and the other one had probably the best half in history and the best up and coming 5/8.

It’s hard to say. I know I asked the question but what would you class as talent? Is it athletic, is it mindfulness, is it awareness, Is it skill, is it desire?

I actually can’t answer it. Coz what appears to be a less talented roster one year would probably more suited in the year the team won.

What it comes down to though that every team that has won one has had a player in their side that is near on the best player in his position for a long time.

 

[Fade.To.Black]

What nonsense, there is one bloke that was the difference between manly being top 4 side or getting an early holiday, he will be wearing the no.1 jersey on Friday night. Literally everyone else is interchangeable.

Yep ...and if the WT's had a completion rate like the Roosters they would get lapped every week

Two words that I have repeated time and time and time again ..forget assistant coaches , completion rates and any other dribble these journos can think of

PLAYER TALENT .....

VERY LITTLE ELSE MATTERS IF YOU HAVE A GOOD COACH

Question; who in your opinion was the most talentless team to win a premiership in the past 20 or so years. Let’s say since the start of the NRL 1998.

I'm not going to answer for Happy...

But I'd go with NQ 2015
Or Sharks 2016

It’s hard to say, one of team you mentioned had a 1 Dally M winner, 2x Premiership winners and the other one had probably the best half in history and the best up and coming 5/8.

It’s hard to say. I know I asked the question but what would you class as talent? Is it athletic, is it mindfulness, is it awareness, Is it skill, is it desire?

I actually can’t answer it. Coz what appears to be a less talented roster one year would probably more suited in the year the team won.

What it comes down to though that every team that has won one has had a player in their side that is near on the best player in his position for a long time.

I've said it for years that Sheens has probably taken the cake in 2005 for taking the least talented roster (at the time) to a premiership. Obviously Benji and Farah turned into great players but we're still an unknown quantity back then. And a fair chunk of our players were discards from other clubs that weren't rated much at all.

 

[Fade.To.Black]

I like Dessie's hair..

Me too

Man I laughed when he walked out for the presser. "Proper clown hair", was my first thought! Not that he'd care in the least...

Dessie's a champ?. A real character and much-needed breath of fresh air in our game. Makes a nice change watching him instead of gumps like Bennett who thinks he's above the game.
Would love to see Des on the right side of the result tonight.

 

[gallagher]

What nonsense, there is one bloke that was the difference between manly being top 4 side or getting an early holiday, he will be wearing the no.1 jersey on Friday night. Literally everyone else is interchangeable.

Yep ...and if the WT's had a completion rate like the Roosters they would get lapped every week

Two words that I have repeated time and time and time again ..forget assistant coaches , completion rates and any other dribble these journos can think of

PLAYER TALENT .....

VERY LITTLE ELSE MATTERS IF YOU HAVE A GOOD COACH

Question; who in your opinion was the most talentless team to win a premiership in the past 20 or so years. Let’s say since the start of the NRL 1998.

The dogs premiership teams seemed more grit than talent.