Melbourne Cup 2015..

Geo

Geo

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I don't have much of an Idea about horse racing these days….lost interest years ago... I miss Tigergran on here and her 1 ew..

So Help us out those more learned experts...What's the Tip..?

Happy can you name yours so I know what not to flutter on...thx...
 
I went Fame game for the win

And a boxed first four of fame game, max dynamite, preferment and the United States
 
@Geo. said:
I don't have much of an Idea about horse racing these days….lost interest years ago... I miss Tigergran on here and her 1 ew..

So Help us out those more learned experts...What's the Tip..?

Happy can you name yours so I know what not to flutter on...thx...
Click to expand...

Hey Geo

Suits me fine

I'll dig up the 2014 Melbourne Cup thread

Picked the Trifecta in the 5th , 6th and the Cup last year with multiple horses and percentage bets and a couple of winners

Had lots of Golf Bag money (winnings the Mrs didn't know about ) :smiley:
 
For some help for the trifecta hunters , pick the horses that are proven over the distance and then box for a portion

In those races last year I think I got 40% wins in the 5th and 6th by boxing 6 horses and boxed 7 in the Cup

Came out WELL ahead
 
Haven't had time to even look, so I'll put a greenback on Who Shot Thebarman.

Good Luck Everyone… Geo, surly you will back the Grey?
 
@happy tiger said:
@Geo. said:
I don't have much of an Idea about horse racing these days….lost interest years ago... I miss Tigergran on here and her 1 ew..

So Help us out those more learned experts...What's the Tip..?

Happy can you name yours so I know what not to flutter on...thx...

Hey Geo

Suits me fine

I'll dig up the 2014 Melbourne Cup thread

Picked the Trifecta in the 5th , 6th and the Cup last year with multiple horses and percentage bets and a couple of winners

Had lots of Golf Bag money (winnings the Mrs didn't know about ) :smiley:
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

Well you should be able to finally give Hobbo his bet…

Suits you fine what...can you engrish...I asked for your tips,,,but it looks like Happy Scrooge McDuck wants to keep it from the forum...whatever...
 
Still going through the field mate

The minute I'm finished I'll let you know OK

And I'm into sure bets mate , not ego bets

I know West Ham probably won't finish ahead of Spurs
 
Bump…cause someone bumped last years thread to.I dunno....
 
I'll be giving my tips from Race 2-8 Flemington

Race 2 Horses 1,2,6 and 8

Horse 1 Precious Gem started the magic off last year so will probably stay loyal , but I reckon Zarzali will start a very firm favourite

Race 3 Horses 7 , 12 , 15 and 17

Horses 12 or 17 for a winner Annus Mirabilis at good odds and is as honest a horse you'll find

Race 4 Tough race Gone 3,6,8 and 10

Horse 10 Like Malaguerra , but you need to watch horse Good Project (Horse 1 )

Race 5 Horses 3,5,7 and 10

Horse 3 Will start favourite Spill the Beans and will take , but reckon horse 10 Miss Gidget could be thereabouts

Race 6 Horses 2,4,10 and 12

Horse 12 Irada Rates at 100 and is an honest horse Paying 10's as well , favourite will be Horse 10

Race 7 I'm down to 8 picks 3,5,9,10,11,15,17 and 22

Horse 17 Almoonqith Geelong Cup form usually stands up pretty well My roughie is Big Orange won the Goodwood and beat Trip to Paris and Quest for More in doing so

Race 8 Horses 4,10,13 and 15

Horse 13 He or She My tip of the Day Awesome Rock will also run a good race

Good Luck all hope you all pick a winner or 2 , either way I'll be stumbling around the Leagues Club at the end of the day
 
Race 1\. No.2 Bangs is $21.00 + $5.50 and is a great each way bet. Hard luck story 4th against pattern last time out and is an unusual Adelaide trained horse sent to Melbourne for a 2yo campaign. There's something to it.

There is so much value to be had on the cup that I have to look past it all. Fame Game for mine. Favourites won the CC and CP. I can't tell what roughie to ride so I'm going for the favourite.

Value absolutely everywhere. There are only a few horses I would pot:

2\. Criterion - Has been up all year and finishing off with 3200m untested at the distance in the biggest race of the year is going to flatten him especially at second top weight. I cannot see this horse finishing anywhere but the tail. Love this horse and would love to be proven wrong. I actually worry this race might permanently cook Criterion.

7\. Hokko Brave - Drawn abysmally and absolutely floundered in the CC.

12\. Sky Hunter - At a total guess.

16\. Quest for More - Absolutely woeful in Geelong, and the impressive winner is in double figures here. No chance.

18\. Kingfisher - Didn't even know it was in the race. I can only take that to mean nobody rates it.

19\. Prince of Penzance - Will come last unless a horse has a coronary in the run. Absolutely outclassed. Worse than Sertorius.

21\. Sertorius - How in the world did this horse get a start? Would be lucky to place in the 2800m race earlier in the day!

Roughies -

14\. Grand Marshal. $51\. Already has half the battle won with a good 3200m win earlier in the year. Can stay. Won't mind the sting out of the ground. Caulfield Cup trial was sneakily good and if not for nearly running up the back of a waning leader would have finished in the top 5.

24\. Gust of Wind. 51kg. $34\. Thrashed Winx in the Oaks earlier this year. Has a freaky streak. If the track plays fair this one will be coming home like the clappers. Could run 4200m. Massive overs.

Top selection - 3\. Fame Game. That Caulfield Cup run was scary.

Biggest danger - 15\. Preferment. Waller/Bowman effect and massive weight advantage over rivals. Will swallow 3200m. Will be there when the whips are cracking.
 
Gust of Wind is a freak, but not happy with the jockey. Stuffed the ride in the Caulfield Cup, so hope he gets it right today.

Who Shot The Barman because Shinn is on it to run a place.
 
Lucky enough to be here near finish line. Im cheering snow sky from United States and sky hunter. Good luck everyone.
 
I'm actually considering switching on Criterion completely. The track is a farce and it may not need to run a genuine 3200m to win from the barrier and the way it runs it's races.
 
Here is the Mac Bank Quant analysis… except for the last 3 years, these guys have a pretty good track record.

Melbourne Cup Quant Style
Winning a Trip to Paris!
>
Event
 Hot off the successful warm up in the Rugby World Cup, the Macquarie Quant
team turn our attention to Flemington, transforming racing stats into traditional
Quant signals to make our picks in the race that stops the nation.
>
Impact
 Horses at the top of the model include Trip to Paris, Fame Game, The United
States, The Offer, Criterion and Almoonqith.
 Trip to Paris comes out as the top horse following a strong showing in the
Caulfield Cup. Taking the lead from his name, a celebratory Macaron or two
under the Eifel Tower seems an appropriate celebration should he win. We
can all dream!
 The weak Australian dollar has not deterred offshore entrants in this year’s
race despite the overall prize purse getting a 20% haircut over the last 12
months (in USD terms). The 75% of the field from outside of AU/NZ will be
hoping for support from the RBA when it meets on interest rates prior to race
time. They will be out of luck if our view is correct.
 We add an extra Quality factor to this year’s model tilting towards horses
that have a proven track record over the longer distance of the Melbourne
Cup. Macro volatility has picked up in the last 6 months as the Chinese
market tipped over and investors contemplate the impact of a US interest rate
cycle. Proven, Quality stocks typically win out in volatile environments leading
us to increase our Quality tilt in 2015.
>
Strategy: Red Cadeaux - Learning from lessons past
 We adjust our strategy this year and include our bogey horse, Red
Cadeaux in our trifecta bet. This will include 7 horses. Despite typically
having poor form and being one of the races elder statesmen, Red Cadeaux
always brings his A-Game on Cup day and cannot be ignored.
 Our traditional strategy is maintained, placing a bet on the top horse in
our model and going for the trifecta using the top quartile of horses
(plus Red Cadeaux). This best mirrors the way Quantitative strategies are
applied to equity investing and can be implemented using a ‘box trifecta’ (see
your local bookie for a description of this bet).
>
 We show the payoff to our historic strategy since 2007 inside. Overall profits
remain healthy however results have gone against us in recent years
providing a timely reminder that this is still gambling. This model is not
intended to be taken seriously. The Quant team has limited knowledge of
horse racing and the purpose of this article is primarily fun.
 
went fame game, who shot thebarman and red codeaux.. all for places- thought i was 80% guaranteed to make money or atleast break even. whoops.
 
oh first time betting too btw

unrelated but once i was at the star with my mates and lost about $20 so i quit playing but mates kept playing. so, i stayed with them and to pass some time, my $10 each on all columns- rolled a 0.
 
@happy tiger said:
Race 7 I'm down to 8 picks 3,5,9,10,11,15,17 and 22

Horse 17 Almoonqith Geelong Cup form usually stands up pretty well My roughie is Big Orange won the Goodwood and beat Trip to Paris and Quest for More in doing so
Click to expand...

I don't see 19, 8 or 2 on any of those numbers
 
@Geo. said:
@happy tiger said:
Race 7 I'm down to 8 picks 3,5,9,10,11,15,17 and 22

Horse 17 Almoonqith Geelong Cup form usually stands up pretty well My roughie is Big Orange won the Goodwood and beat Trip to Paris and Quest for More in doing so

I don't see 19, 8 or 2 on any of those numbers
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

Yeah Geo got the trifecta because he did not listen to happy!
 
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