Politics Super Thread - keep it all in here

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Interesting result in my electorate which is a safe Labor seat and not particularly political.

Overall there was a swing against Labor, Liberal and One Nation.

UAP and Greens both picked up a lot of votes.

Individual polling places had some very weird results.

Less socioeconomically advantaged areas had big swings against ALP and vice versa.

At some polling places, support for One nation totally collapsed.

I think some of the swing were due to demographic changes (traditional white Aussies are moving out/passing away and being replaced with new Aussies).

But I also think some of the more politically engaged residents were fed up with the government while those doing it really tough with inflation latched onto the Liberal Party's fear campaign.
 
Off the top of my head I can't think of a single seat that Howard campaigned in that resulted in a Liberal win. How they thought it was advantageous to showcase an ex-Prime Minister who not only lost his last election but also his own seat astounds me.
 
Mac said:
Off the top of my head I can't think of a single seat that Howard campaigned in that resulted in a Liberal win. How they thought it was advantageous to showcase an ex-Prime Minister who not only lost his last election but also his own seat astounds me.
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I think they were just desperate at that point.
 
Papacito said:
Interesting result in my electorate which is a safe Labor seat and not particularly political.

Overall there was a swing against Labor, Liberal and One Nation.

UAP and Greens both picked up a lot of votes.

Individual polling places had some very weird results.

Less socioeconomically advantaged areas had big swings against ALP and vice versa.

At some polling places, support for One nation totally collapsed.

I think some of the swing were due to demographic changes (traditional white Aussies are moving out/passing away and being replaced with new Aussies).

But I also think some of the more politically engaged residents were fed up with the government while those doing it really tough with inflation latched onto the Liberal Party's fear campaign.
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Good post, interesting results all over the place.
The richest postcodes in Australia turfing out the Liberals is interesting, but it's not the only story in town.
 
Cultured_Bogan said:
Yeah but that's the preferential voting system. The whole idea is that the general will of the electorate is met. In a seat where the bulk of the population are voting for LNP/PHON/UAP/LDP etc it should stand to reason that even if the LNP generate less than 50% of the primary vote in that electorate, that the preference flows from right wing parties should mean that the LNP take the seat if more than 50% of the population wanted a right wing party representing the area. Same in reverse with the ALP and Greens.

The same would be for the coalition, they can win 35% of the first preference vote and still get over the line with preferences from PHON, UAP, LDP etc if enough people voted for the latter parties.
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just unusual previously Hawke won with 39%
35% is the lowest primary vote in history
interesting the teal independents are in predominantly liberal haeatland and not Labor voters.
Labor got there through teal independents in liberal seats not pure Labor voters
it is a huge loss for liberals but not insurmountable as some teal seats may be able to be flipped at next election
A female Lib leader or deputymay assist time will tell
 
Jedi_Tiger said:
just unusual previously Hawke won with 39%
35% is the lowest primary vote in history
interesting the teal independents are in predominantly liberal haeatland and not Labor voters.
Labor got there through teal independents in liberal seats not pure Labor voters
it is a huge loss for liberals but not insurmountable as some teal seats may be able to be flipped at next election
A female Lib leader or deputymay assist time will tell
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I'm not so sure that the teal seats will flip that easily - particularly if Dutton gets the leadership.

Once a seat goes independent it often stays that way for some time. Calare used to be a strong National seat until Peter Andren became their independent. After his death it reverted.

When Mirabella was turfed by McGowan in Indi she was re-elected and now Helen Haines becomes our new member. Knowing that each piece of legislation is properly debated instead of being pushed through on party lines is something that the independent electorates come to appreciate.
 
Jedi_Tiger said:
just unusual previously Hawke won with 39%
35% is the lowest primary vote in history
interesting the teal independents are in predominantly liberal haeatland and not Labor voters.
Labor got there through teal independents in liberal seats not pure Labor voters
it is a huge loss for liberals but not insurmountable as some teal seats may be able to be flipped at next election
A female Lib leader or deputymay assist time will tell
Click to expand...

The teals winning seats sounds like an LNP problem, not a Labor one. Maybe the LNP should go back to being an actual liberal party if they want to win their blue ribbon seats back?
 
Cultured_Bogan said:
The teals winning seats sounds like an LNP problem, not a Labor one. Maybe the LNP should go back to being an actual liberal party if they want to win their blue ribbon seats back?
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the point was it was not Labor winning blue ribbon liberal seats it was the teals
if it was Labor winning those blue ribbon liberal seats then Labor would have received a lot more votes than 35% primary
not sure what the answer for LNP is in those seats to be honest I think it might be a bit of a Morrison factor and new leader and female Deputy may well bring the seats back not from Labor but the teal independents
 
Mate of mine said the constant UAP ads on YouTube saying "If you want free weed and to live off the dole vote greens" made him vote green just cause he hates Clive
 
Mac said:
I'm not so sure that the teal seats will flip that easily - particularly if Dutton gets the leadership.

Once a seat goes independent it often stays that way for some time. Calare used to be a strong National seat until Peter Andren became their independent. After his death it reverted.

When Mirabella was turfed by McGowan in Indi she was re-elected and now Helen Haines becomes our new member. Knowing that each piece of legislation is properly debated instead of being pushed through on party lines is something that the independent electorates come to appreciate.
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it will be interesting I agree true independent seats are hard to flip, some of the seats won e.g. Kooyong could well be an attack on the man frydenberg not necessarily just the LNP
next election will tell the story if independents hold kooyong and others then agree they will be hard to flip I just think the amount of independents is slightly unusual even fowler as an example, the low primary votes of both parties it all seems like a strange election and likely not the normal
 
Jedi_Tiger said:
just unusual previously Hawke won with 39%
35% is the lowest primary vote in history
interesting the teal independents are in predominantly liberal haeatland and not Labor voters.
Labor got there through teal independents in liberal seats not pure Labor voters
it is a huge loss for liberals but not insurmountable as some teal seats may be able to be flipped at next election
A female Lib leader or deputymay assist time will tell
Click to expand...

Until the LNP take climate change seriously and actively address the issue they will make little or no impact on the independant seats.Yes the libs treatment of women has been disgraceful but climate change is the key point and this will only get more pronounced as younger people get the opportunity to vote.
I doubt if Mr Potato Head has the intelligence to realise that as he is still trying to make China the enemy
 
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