Racing tips, talk etc

[Jedi_Tiger]

Mister Hemsworth
Gosford Thursday 2nd February 1.10pm
1600m Brett Prebble to ride
Simply put we should be winning this one

 

[Halbrowne61]

Mister Hemsworth
Gosford Thursday 2nd February 1.10pm
1600m Brett Prebble to ride
Simply put we should be winning this one

Yep. Thanks and good luck.

 

[Halbrowne61]

Mister Hemsworth
Gosford Thursday 2nd February 1.10pm
1600m Brett Prebble to ride
Simply put we should be winning this one

Just looked at Fixed Odds, $2.10 is a good things price, let’s hope it runs accordingly.

 

[Halbrowne61]

Mister Hemsworth
Gosford Thursday 2nd February 1.10pm
1600m Brett Prebble to ride
Simply put we should be winning this one

Just received a text and video update from a mate of mine in Sydney.
He has Julimar in the same race as MH and they are quietly confident.
This is turning into a must watch race !.

 

[Jedi_Tiger]

Just received a text and video update from a mate of mine in Sydney.
He has Julimar in the same race as MH and they are quietly confident.
This is turning into a must watch race !.

it will be interesting, our stable super confident

 

[Halbrowne61]

it will be interesting, our stable super confident

Their stable is more hopeful.
Neasham should know coz she and Smith both train out of WF.

 

[Buttface]

A mate has a tip for Grafton r5 no10.
Bet with your head.
@Halbrowne61
@Jedi_Tiger

@Halbrowne61
@Jedi_Tiger
Hopefully you didn’t get on it.
Got me.

 

[happy_tiger]

Mister Hemsworth
Gosford Thursday 2nd February 1.10pm
1600m Brett Prebble to ride
Simply put we should be winning this one

Good luck JT ...should we throw the farm on him ??

 

[happy_tiger]

it will be interesting, our stable super confident

We have the First two ...who do we box it with

 

[426Tlgerland]

Harpers Jewel was scratched the other day due to heavy 9 track she can run on soft but not that wet , nominated for Friday Walcha races , she will be competitive. , bet with your head cheers

 

[Halbrowne61]

i

i used to work for racing nsw years ago so know a little bit about handicapping and pricing markets. It takes a long time to do form, do all the weights and measures and then frame the markets to around 100%
I am pretty strict with my rules if I have a horse marked at 7/2 and it is 3/1 I will not back it.

When I framed the nrl top 8 market to 110% I thought 7/1 was great value to make the 8 for the Tigers. At 4/1 the value is not there anymore but if you look some big moves have been on the Tigers 7/1 to 4/1 to make 8.

Hi JT, I was talking to a punting mate yesterday and thought you might be interested in his idea on value pricing
He takes what he calls the morning line ie fixed odds prices on Tab after scratchings,and only interested in those horses less than 11.0.
Adds 2 points to their f/o price and won’t bet unless he can get that revised price.
Eg. M/L. His price
2.0. 4.0
4.2. 6.2
6.5. 8.5
8.0. 10.0
8.0. 10.0
10.0. 12.0
It’s a pretty generalistic idea but he likes it and i thought it may of interest. 👌

 

[Jedi_Tiger]

Hi JT, I was talking to a punting mate yesterday and thought you might be interested in his idea on value pricing
He takes what he calls the morning line ie fixed odds prices on Tab after scratchings,and only interested in those horses less than 11.0.
Adds 2 points to their f/o price and won’t bet unless he can get that revised price.
Eg. M/L. His price
2.0. 4.0
4.2. 6.2
6.5. 8.5
8.0. 10.0
8.0. 10.0
10.0. 12.0
It’s a pretty generalistic idea but he likes it and i thought it may of interest. 👌

interesting thanks mate
with the tab especially fixed odds they generally by the time race day happens have allowed the zelco's and the Pro punters on via rebates earlier. What the rebates mean is it is the rank and file punter is getting the odds skimmed or tightened if that makes sense.

 

[Jedi_Tiger]

Good luck JT ...should we throw the farm on him ??

mate as you and the punting regulars know the last person you should take a tip from is an owner lol but geez honestly Neasham extremely confident now third up and at a mile. Price a little short but don't think he has much to beat in my opinion and has drawn a good barrier.

 

[Halbrowne61]

interesting thanks mate
with the tab especially fixed odds they generally by the time race day happens have allowed the zelco's and the Pro punters on via rebates earlier. What the rebates mean is it is the rank and file punter is getting the odds skimmed or tightened if that makes sense.

I think this tries to offset that advantage, in a basic way.

 

[Jedi_Tiger]

We have the First two ...who do we box it with

Had a chat with Annabelle she said the only possible danger she can see is Maralago (Anthony cummings) but she thinks it will come from behind Mister Hemsworth.
Plan is to be one out one back let Painte go to the front with julimar and we get the cushy run just behind

 

[Halbrowne61]

We have the First two ...who do we box it with

Looks like Mister Hemsworth, Maralago, Julimar and Painte.
Given that MH supposedly a good thing you can take it as a standout and box the other 3.
Or, for a possible upset, box the 4.
I don’t bet trifectas but wish you good luck.

 

[Halbrowne61]

Bummer I missed that post I was having lunch mate.
So ya first at Geelong had a good run but was beaten by the favourite.

Another tip just received from same reliable source as Sunday.
Last at Warrnambool today R8-5 ew. 🤞🤞🤞

 

[Jedi_Tiger]

Looks like Mister Hemsworth, Maralago, Julimar and Painte.
Given that MH supposedly a good thing you can take it as a standout and box the other 3.
Or, for a possible upset, box the 4.
I don’t bet trifectas but wish you good luck.

why don't you take Mister Hemsworth to win into tigers to make the top 8
$2 × $4.50 = $9
Also I will take Mister Hemsworth to win and Newcastle to get Most losses
$2 x $6 = $12

 

[Jedi_Tiger]

why don't you take Mister Hemsworth to win into tigers to make the top 8
$2 × $4.50 = $9
Also I will take Mister Hemsworth to win and Newcastle to get Most losses
$2 x $6 = $12

Bloody second again that Maralago was far too good Annabelle was right there . Not the best ride but no real excuses.

 

[Halbrowne61]

Bloody second again that Maralago was far too good Annabelle was right there . Not the best ride but no real excuses.

I’d say a 3/10 by Prebble. Next time when the price is better.