Racing tips, talk etc

[Ron Brodrick's Spirit]

Not a horse racing tip but you can currently get $8.80 about the Liberals in the election on Betfair.
Now I don't expect them to win but with the inaccuracy of polling in recent elections and the bombardment of late advertising (their advertisements seem to be running at 3 times the frequency of ALP advertising) that price seems to be way over the odds.

Note: I'm not looking to start any political arguments this is a betting value post ONLY.

 

[Halbrowne61]

Not a horse racing tip but you can currently get $8.80 about the Liberals in the election on Betfair.
Now I don't expect them to win but with the inaccuracy of polling in recent elections and the bombardment of late advertising (their advertisements seem to be running at 3 times the frequency of ALP advertising) that price seems to be way over the odds.

Note: I'm not looking to start any political arguments this is a betting value post ONLY.

I know where you’re coming from but $8.80 is still under their right price IMO.
Dutton just hasn’t got it( and I’m a Blue voter), the longer the campaign goes on the bigger the gap grows.

 

[Jedi_Tiger]

I know where you’re coming from but $8.80 is still under their right price IMO.
Dutton just hasn’t got it( and I’m a Blue voter), the longer the campaign goes on the bigger the gap grows.

Morrison did it against shorten, remember it is not about the national poll but driven by electorate voting.
My mate does internal polling for the libs and he seems to think they are going along similar to when Morrison beat Shorten. Don't underestimate the quiet australian (mortgage holders who has seen 12 rate rises in this government) and especially if they can flip a teal seat or 2 and one nation vote increases it will be very close.
In the bookies side is a first term government has not been rolled in 90 years
I think the $8 is pretty good value tbh

 

[Rock Hopper Steve]

I know where you’re coming from but $8.80 is still under their right price IMO.
Dutton just hasn’t got it( and I’m a Blue voter), the longer the campaign goes on the bigger the gap grows.

Backing Dutton would be like putting your money on a three-legged horse that tossed the jockey coming out of the barriers.
Edit I don't know who I dislike more him or in the past Turnbull.

 

[Halbrowne61]

Morrison did it against shorten, remember it is not about the national poll but driven by electorate voting.
My mate does internal polling for the libs and he seems to think they are going along similar to when Morrison beat Shorten. Don't underestimate the quiet australian (mortgage holders who has seen 12 rate rises in this government) and especially if they can flip a teal seat or 2 and one nation vote increases it will be very close.
In the bookies side is a first term government has not been rolled in 90 years
I think the $8 is pretty good value tbh

All valid points JT but lightning won’t strike twice this time.( imho).

 

[Ron Brodrick's Spirit]

To me, in horse racing terms I expect Labor to win by half a length.
That makes the Libs around a $2.45 chance.
The value is there.

 

[Buttface]

To me, in horse racing terms I expect Labor to win by half a length.
That makes the Libs around a $2.45 chance.
The value is there.

I reckon it’ll be a couple of lengths, ya not getting me for anything under $10.
And like what was said this is strictly numbers not a political agenda.
Tigers are $10 to make the top 4, I reckon we’re more chance of that than Dutts getting home, I’m on us.
Only $3 to make the 8, that’s a jip.

 

[Jedi_Tiger]

All valid points JT but lightning won’t strike twice this time.( imho).

plenty of those seats like benelong, gilmour etc have always been liberal they should get flipped this time. Those teal seats look shaky this time too, those teals last time were a vote against Morisson in essence (disgruntled Libs). Last time you sensed it was lost for Libs due to Morrison not so sure this time. One Nation support has almost doubled from last election.
Libs are way way overs think it will be very close

 

[Ron Brodrick's Spirit]

$11 now available on Betfair for the Libs.
These election markets are usually extremely volatile when counting begins so I'm hoping for some close early counting to be able to lay off and take a profit .
I could be totally wrong but punting is always about value so I'm happy to take the risk.

 

[Rock Hopper Steve]

Just went down to the polling booths, good it's only a 5-minute walk.
Guy crossing off my name asked if I have voted somewhere else today, I said no politics gives me the shits, he smiled and let out a chuckle.

Expecting him to be shocked actually think I made his day, probably didn't want to be there either.

 

[Ron Brodrick's Spirit]

My horse didn't jump out of the barriers!