Regression to the Mean

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I think we should make ourselves aware of this phenomenon:

It's a statistical phenomenon that can make natural variation in repeated data look like a real change.

I think we fall for this on a yearly basis, we win a game or two and think there has been a real change only to return to mean.

I think 2005 was the ultimate variation (on a long period) and then return.

The sporting, along with most fields is littered with examples. There are some great baseball examples before drugs cheats. A great example is Roger Maris breaking Babe Ruths record and becoming the first man to score more then 60 homers in one season. Before and after 1961, he was an average hitter.

Anyway, just thinking out load.

 

[farmduck]

I agree. We see it all the time with elections - over a 20 -40 year cycle the ALP/Lib vote split has probably been very stable but we've still had landslides on both sides.

This year Wests have delivered pretty much what I expected. We're all hopeful that our players will succeed but yesterday's top tackler was a guy who couldn't get into first grade at the Panthers and the Panthers have only just snuck into the top 8.

I understand all the issues that have brought us to this point but I still think we need a major attitude adjustment. If we continue to accept that barely OK is OK nothing will change.