I appreciate the detail you have gone into here
I appreciate your numbers in reply.
Firstly I will point out the reason I looked up all the stats is solely because you said "Each spoon year we have been very competitive for the first half of the season, with the wheels falling off in the 2nd half".
That is very much not my recollection and despite the data showing we were middle-ground in defence for 2023-2024, our terrible attack of those years meant we weren't getting the W. I used to make all sorts of arguments back in the day about a whole variety stats, but the feedback I got consistently was that really only the W mattered.
So I see no possible way to argue that we were "very competitive" in the first half of any of 2022-2024 when we banked max 3W from 11 starts.
We ranked 8th in the league for defence at this point in the 2023 and 2024 seasons. At the conclusion of the 2024 and 2023 seasons we had the worst and 3rd worst defences respectively (hence my point about falling away in the 2nd half of the season. We currently rank 16th for defence. We ended up conceding 40 or more points 8/14 games after round 11 last year. We got a couple of wins, but on the main we were less competitive than we were in first half of the season where our defence held together.
Yes our defensive record has gone out the window since the Storm game, shame. But obviously defensive record is only half the story and being middle-field in defence is not necessarily equivalent to being competitive. You can say this because, for example, Newcastle currently have the 3rd-best defence in the competition. But? But their attack is the worst in the competition by an amazing 51 points (I mean 51 points worse than second-worst).
Disagree, we are showing a trend that we are not able to hanging tough during the losses:
average loss margin up to round 11:
average loss margin 17.9 points 2025 (top 3 points conceded - 64, 46 and 38)
average loss margin 13 points 2024 (top 3 points conceded - 42, 34 and 32 twice)
average loss margin 2023 9.8 (top 3 points conceded - 46, 28 and 26)
My point was that we were "moderately competitive in our losses", not that we are trending better in the margins of losses. And combined with many more wins than previous years, playing 11 for 5W and [2L by 2 points] is quite competitive. Yes 3 of the other loss margins weren't good, but that's only 3 out of 11.
As opposed to, for example, 2023 when our average loss margin was only 12 (the lowest of the past 4 years) and yet we only banked 2W during that period. My main argument about what constitutes "competitive" is that you are "close to the opponent at the end of most matches and you convert 50% of the close ones" --> that is how you get to play finals footy. It's no good being close for half the matches and converting half of those = 25% win rate.
I absolutely take your point that some of 2025 losses aren't great, but again I wasn't arguing that 2025 is great, I was arguing that we did not start the spoon years competitive at the halfway, and by most (not all) measurements we are competitive at halfway in 2025.
2023 is an interesting example because we had 2 losses by 6, 1 by 4 and 1 by 2. It sounds alright on paper. But we also had 2 wins by only 4 and 2 points. We didn't put anyone away. I can't accept that as evidence for being highly competitive, I see that as gritty but ultimately inept, to be within 6 points 4 times but lose 8, and then win 2 by paltry margins.
But your numbers are off for some reason, are you including the trials in the data? Up to and including Rd 11:
2025 average loss is worse than you say, it's 19.3
2024 average loss is 13.5
2023 average loss is 12
2022 average loss is 13.5
Also - this might sound like a silly point, but if you take out that single Melbourne result, the average loss is 10.4. So it's one real blowout this year and it's over-expressed because there are only 6L in the cohort.
Attack is improved, no arguments there. How much of this is down to some individual recruits? whichever way you spin it, we have been a hard watch in attack most of the time this year. The point you made about teams overall conceding more points works both ways, teams are obviously scoring more points too. We currently rank 13th in points scored for this year. Much improved on the last 2 years (16th and 17th)
OK but "hard to watch" isn't a metric. We aren't playing well and yet we are a try better than any of the wooden spoon years. Yes teams are overall scoring more points in 2025 and I'm glad Tigers are sticking with rather than bucking that trend.
I personally see something different in 2025 than previous years. 2022-2024 were abysmal, I can't see how anyone can make arguments for positives in those years as compared to 2025. 2025 has not, so far, been a repeat of the spoon seasons.
We have played 2 of the teams on the bottom of the table twice. Half our games have been against teams in a tie for last. The draw has been kind. Of course it is positive we have beaten these teams.
Overall, with a much, much improved squad our attack has improved marginally and our defence has gotten worse. We do have more wins, which is great, but there are some really worrying signs with both attack and defence imo
I find this is a weird one. We have a much improved squad and we win more. It is positive that we have beaten the teams that are lower than us on the table. I agree with all of those, fundamental to my argument. I agree some worrying signs and some issues with coping with injuries --> no doubt some sides have sorely tested our weak points when our best team cannot be fielded.
Again your argument speaks to me of some hope that we will play finals footy, these comments that we are "doing OK but we've had a good draw". I do not share it. Foremost I don't want to come last again and the basis of that is beating the teams below you on the table, as often as you face them. I am less interested in how many times we have or have not played good teams. A flattering draw comes into consideration when you are hoping to pick up 12+ wins in a 24-match season. Less important when you are trying to avoid a 4th-straight spoon.
