LIVE GAME Round 11 v Rabbitohs

Live Game Discussion
Needaname said:
Funny what people see as different. I actually think Mitchell probably had his best game this year in a Souths jersey. There wasn’t the highlight plays or the huge stats line but he did everything for his team to ensure Souths won that game. How can you dispute that?
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Api stepped past him twice with absolute ease. The first time was a direct try the second set us up for Api to again score - noting Mitchell nowhere to be seen.
I think Latrell is a very strong Origin player. He thrives in the fast pace, rough and tumble and is a true centre. Its a different game where aggression is highly rewarded and his thuggery lends itself to this arena. He also gets a bit of a breather and as such plays in spurts of excellence.
As a hard working fullback in clubland, he is an overated lazy slob.
 
Betterdays22 said:
Every new season there is a recency bias. Each spoon year we have been very competitive for the first half of the season, with the wheels falling off in the 2nd half.

We have conceded similar ppg after round 10 this year to the last 2 years, despite all the back slapping about our improved defence, we have the 3rd worst defence in the league for crying out loud. We also have the 4th worst attack.

We have had a very kind draw. Half our games have been against the teams tying for last. The cracks that have been papered over by Terrell Mays minutes and desperate defence are beginning to open up. Hate being doom and gloom but there are massive causes for concern currently. To deny it is head in the sand stuff. The season isnt in the toilet, but if performances don't improve it will be in about 4 games time.
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I'll have to bring my friend FACTS into this discussion.

There is no way at all you can argue we have been "very competitive" for the first half of the spoon seasons.

First 11 matches (not rounds - byes excluded):
2025 - 5W 6L, first 6 matches LWWLLW, points FOR per game (PF) 20.55, points against (PA) per game 25.45, % losses 6 pts or less (6PL) = 33%
2024 - 2W 9L, first 6 LWWLLL,PF 15.73, PA 24.36, 6PL = 11.1% --> finished with 6 wins
2023 - 3W 8L, first 6 LLLLLL, PF 18.36, PA 22.18, 6PL = 37.5% --> finished with 4 wins
2022 - 3W 8L, first 6 LLLLWW, PF 14.73, PA 23.10, 6PL = 37.5% --> finished with 4 wins

Just take # wins total, we were within a whisker yesterday of equalling the total wins for any of the spoon seasons, not just the midway point. But nonetheless statistically many more wins after 11 matches.

I can even go back further to show how non-competitive we are in pre-spoon seasons:
2021 = 3W 8L (finished with 8 wins)
2020 = 5W 6L (finished with 7 wins)
2019 = 5W 6L (finished with 11 wins)
2018 = 6W 5L (finished with 12 wins)
2017 = 3W 8L (finished with 7 wins)
2016 = 4W 7L (finished with 11 wins)

Note: wins at the halfway point not necessarily a predictor of season-end, e.g. 2020 5W became only 7W, in 2019 it became 11 wins.

Interesting stat - when is the last time Tigers started a season more than 6W after 11 rounds? Answer is... NEVER! We've never done it. Our best ever start to a season is 2000 when we were 6W 2D 3L after 11 rounds, i.e. before golden point was introduced. We've had several seasons of 6W 5L but never better than that and usually worse. So if Galvin scores and we win yesterday, in terms of wins it would have equalled our best result EVER in the golden point era.

Our worst start of the spoon seasons is actually 2024 (2W) but we got better in the second half (4W), exactly opposite to what you state.

For 2022-2023 combined, total 8 wins all season, 50% of those were wins by 2 points or less (3 x 1-point wins). So we are actually very NON-competitive in the first half of the spoon years, both in terms of # wins and the size of our wins.

You can also see in 2025 that not only do we have fewer losses but we remain moderately competitive in those losses (~1/3 within 6 points). That's one of the important points about improving and avoiding the spoon, you want to be winning ~50% of your close games, not continually losing the close ones. You want to be both competitive and closing matches out. You also want to be winning by more than a whisker when you do win.

For 2024 we were very ordinary at staying in touch with the match (only 1/8 losses within 6 points) however we improved as the season went on.

Attack is very clearly better than previous 3 years, by a try or more except against 2023.

Defence is slightly worse than spoon years. If you take out the worst defensive effort of each of the seasons, i.e. selectively remove the 64-0 from 2025, it's the 2nd best defence of the past 4 years. That's cheating somewhat but it shows that one 64-0 blowout makes the averages much worse over 11 matches. We went from 5th best to 2nd worst defence after one result.

But also an interesting stat about defence - in 2025 after 11 rounds there is only 1 side with a defensive record < 200 points total and that is Bulldogs (competition average is 237.59). In 2024 there were 5 sides (av. 228), in 2023 there were 4 (av. 220.82), in 2022 there were 5 (av 222.0). So of the past 4 years 2025 is the highest scoring competition after 11 rounds, by some margin.

Finally you say "very kind draw". We have already played 3 of the top 5 sides and we've only played 3 of the bottom 5 sides. That's rather average to get about half of the best and worst sides. And it makes a point, that I have made before - if we are playing some of the worse sides in the comp and winning more often, that is a POSITIVE. Because historically WE were the worst team in the comp and oppositions were hoping to cash in against us. So if there are other lower teams and we are collecting wins against them, that bodes well, that is an improvement, that is how you climb the ladder. You don't typically reach the finals from bad positions by knocking out all the best sides, you do it by beating the teams around and below you.
 
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Bula said:
Maybe they mixed the two up. At one point one of the Fox dickheads called out Lattrelll May. Last night was the worst and most biased commentary I have ever seen. Constantly cutting to Mitchell standing around in back play.Ennis needs a cold spoon.
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You could fill a good 40+ minutes per match with footage of Latrell resting in backplay.
 
jirskyr said:
I'll have to bring my friend FACTS into this discussion.

There is no way at all you can argue we have been "very competitive" for the first half of the spoon seasons.

First 11 matches (not rounds - byes excluded):
2025 - 5W 6L, first 6 matches LWWLLW, points FOR per game (PF) 20.55, points against (PA) per game 25.45, % losses 6 pts or less (6PL) = 33%
2024 - 2W 9L, first 6 LWWLLL,PF 15.73, PA 24.36, 6PL = 11.1% --> finished with 6 wins
2023 - 3W 8L, first 6 LLLLLL, PF 18.36, PA 22.18, 6PL = 37.5% --> finished with 4 wins
2022 - 3W 8L, first 6 LLLLWW, PF 14.73, PA 23.10, 6PL = 37.5% --> finished with 4 wins

Just take # wins total, we were within a whisker yesterday of equalling the total wins for any of the spoon seasons, not just the midway point. But nonetheless statistically many more wins after 11 matches.

I can even go back further to show how non-competitive we are in pre-spoon seasons:
2021 = 3W 8L (finished with 8 wins)
2020 = 5W 6L (finished with 7 wins)
2019 = 5W 6L (finished with 11 wins)
2018 = 6W 5L (finished with 12 wins)
2017 = 3W 8L (finished with 7 wins)
2016 = 4W 7L (finished with 11 wins)

Interesting stat - when is the last time Tigers started a season more than 6W after 11 rounds? Answer is... NEVER! We've never done it. Our best ever start to a season is 2000 when we were 6W 2D 3L after 11 rounds, i.e. before golden point was introduced. We've had several seasons of 6W 5L but never better than that and usually worst. So if Galvin scores and we win yesterday, in terms of wins it would have equalled our best result EVER in the golden point era.

Our worst start of the spoon seasons is actually 2024 (2W) but we got better in the second half (4W), exactly opposite to what you state.

For 2022-2023 combined, total 8 wins all season, 50% of those were wins by 2 points or less (3 x 1-point wins). So we are actually very NON-competitive in the first half of the spoon years, both in terms of # wins and the size of our wins.

You can also see in 2025 that not only do we have fewer losses but we remain moderately competitive in those losses (~1/3 within 6 points). That's one of the important points about improving and avoiding the spoon, you want to be winning ~50% of your close games, not continually losing the close ones. You want to be both competitive and closing matches out. You also want to be winning by more than a whisker when you do win.

For 2024 we were very ordinary at staying in touch with the match (only 1/8 losses within 6 points) however we improved as the season went on.

Attack is very clearly better than previous 3 years, by a try or more except against 2023.

Defence is slightly worse than spoon years. If you take out the worst defensive effort of each of the seasons, i.e. selectively remove the 64-0 from 2025, it's the 2nd best defence of the past 4 years. That's cheating somewhat but it shows that one 64-0 blowout makes the averages much worse over 11 matches. We went from 5th best to 2nd worst defence after one result.

But also an interesting stat about defence - in 2025 after 11 rounds there is only 1 side with a defensive record < 200 points total and that is Bulldogs (competition average is 237.59). In 2024 there were 5 sides (av. 228), in 2023 there were 4 (av. 220.82), in 2022 there were 5 (av 222.0). So of the past 4 years 2025 is the highest scoring competition after 11 rounds, by some margin.

Finally you say "very kind draw". We have already played 3 of the top 5 sides and we've only played 3 of the bottom 5 sides. That's rather average to get about half of the best and worst sides. And it makes a point, that I have made before - if we are playing some of the worse sides in the comp and winning more often, that is a POSITIVE. Because historically WE were the worst team in the comp and oppositions were hoping to cash in against us. So if there are other lower teams and we are collecting wins against them, that bodes well, that is an improvement, that is how you climb the ladder. You don't typically reach the finals from bad positions by knocking out all the best sides, you do it by beating the teams around and below you.

- as I have
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Why are you talking about 6 wins?
It could be a while until that is true.
 
Bula said:
Maybe they mixed the two up. At one point one of the Fox dickheads called out Lattrelll May. Last night was the worst and most biased commentary I have ever seen. Constantly cutting to Mitchell standing around in back play.Ennis needs a cold spoon.
Click to expand...
Haven’t watched many of our games on Fox Sports then?
 
jirskyr said:
I'll have to bring my friend FACTS into this discussion.

There is no way at all you can argue we have been "very competitive" for the first half of the spoon seasons.

First 11 matches (not rounds - byes excluded):
2025 - 5W 6L, first 6 matches LWWLLW, points FOR per game (PF) 20.55, points against (PA) per game 25.45, % losses 6 pts or less (6PL) = 33%
2024 - 2W 9L, first 6 LWWLLL,PF 15.73, PA 24.36, 6PL = 11.1% --> finished with 6 wins
2023 - 3W 8L, first 6 LLLLLL, PF 18.36, PA 22.18, 6PL = 37.5% --> finished with 4 wins
2022 - 3W 8L, first 6 LLLLWW, PF 14.73, PA 23.10, 6PL = 37.5% --> finished with 4 wins

Just take # wins total, we were within a whisker yesterday of equalling the total wins for any of the spoon seasons, not just the midway point. But nonetheless statistically many more wins after 11 matches.

I can even go back further to show how non-competitive we are in pre-spoon seasons:
2021 = 3W 8L (finished with 8 wins)
2020 = 5W 6L (finished with 7 wins)
2019 = 5W 6L (finished with 11 wins)
2018 = 6W 5L (finished with 12 wins)
2017 = 3W 8L (finished with 7 wins)
2016 = 4W 7L (finished with 11 wins)

Interesting stat - when is the last time Tigers started a season more than 6W after 11 rounds? Answer is... NEVER! We've never done it. Our best ever start to a season is 2000 when we were 6W 2D 3L after 11 rounds, i.e. before golden point was introduced. We've had several seasons of 6W 5L but never better than that and usually worst. So if Galvin scores and we win yesterday, in terms of wins it would have equalled our best result EVER in the golden point era.

Our worst start of the spoon seasons is actually 2024 (2W) but we got better in the second half (4W), exactly opposite to what you state.

For 2022-2023 combined, total 8 wins all season, 50% of those were wins by 2 points or less (3 x 1-point wins). So we are actually very NON-competitive in the first half of the spoon years, both in terms of # wins and the size of our wins.

You can also see in 2025 that not only do we have fewer losses but we remain moderately competitive in those losses (~1/3 within 6 points). That's one of the important points about improving and avoiding the spoon, you want to be winning ~50% of your close games, not continually losing the close ones. You want to be both competitive and closing matches out. You also want to be winning by more than a whisker when you do win.

For 2024 we were very ordinary at staying in touch with the match (only 1/8 losses within 6 points) however we improved as the season went on.

Attack is very clearly better than previous 3 years, by a try or more except against 2023.

Defence is slightly worse than spoon years. If you take out the worst defensive effort of each of the seasons, i.e. selectively remove the 64-0 from 2025, it's the 2nd best defence of the past 4 years. That's cheating somewhat but it shows that one 64-0 blowout makes the averages much worse over 11 matches. We went from 5th best to 2nd worst defence after one result.

But also an interesting stat about defence - in 2025 after 11 rounds there is only 1 side with a defensive record < 200 points total and that is Bulldogs (competition average is 237.59). In 2024 there were 5 sides (av. 228), in 2023 there were 4 (av. 220.82), in 2022 there were 5 (av 222.0). So of the past 4 years 2025 is the highest scoring competition after 11 rounds, by some margin.

Finally you say "very kind draw". We have already played 3 of the top 5 sides and we've only played 3 of the bottom 5 sides. That's rather average to get about half of the best and worst sides. And it makes a point, that I have made before - if we are playing some of the worse sides in the comp and winning more often, that is a POSITIVE. Because historically WE were the worst team in the comp and oppositions were hoping to cash in against us. So if there are other lower teams and we are collecting wins against them, that bodes well, that is an improvement, that is how you climb the ladder. You don't typically reach the finals from bad positions by knocking out all the best sides, you do it by beating the teams around and below you.

- as I have
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Wow, interesting info J.
 
ancient_magpie said:
Latrell only has to stand up to get points he's the favourite.
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Yeah it's honestly a joke. They cream their pants when he makes one big play, but when he's having his usual bludge for 75% of the season they talk like he's pulling out blinders each week.

To think we could have been stuck with this bloke for 1.3 million a season. Bullet dodged.
 
ancient_magpie said:
Hank I think your becoming more negative than Tucker if that's possible
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Gee if we continue on the way we are currently going, tell me what games you think we win for the rest of this draw, like I said I think we won't get much more than 3.

We play:
Cowboys twice
Penrith twice
Canberra twice
Manly twice
Titans twice

Bulldogs once
Roosters once
Warriors once

All I can say is I hope your predictions are better than mine.

At the start of the year I thought we would come in around 10th but to achieve that I think we would probably need to win at least 5 or 6 of our remaining games which I think would be a pretty good result, but honestly I think that is gone now.
 
I appreciate the detail you have gone into here
jirskyr said:
First 11 matches (not rounds - byes excluded):
2025 - 5W 6L, first 6 matches LWWLLW, points FOR per game (PF) 20.55, points against (PA) per game 25.45, % losses 6 pts or less (6PL) = 33%
2024 - 2W 9L, first 6 LWWLLL,PF 15.73, PA 24.36, 6PL = 11.1% --> finished with 6 wins
2023 - 3W 8L, first 6 LLLLLL, PF 18.36, PA 22.18, 6PL = 37.5% --> finished with 4 wins
2022 - 3W 8L, first 6 LLLLWW, PF 14.73, PA 23.10, 6PL = 37.5% --> finished with 4 wins
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We ranked 8th in the league for defence at this point in the 2023 and 2024 seasons. At the conclusion of the 2024 and 2023 seasons we had the worst and 3rd worst defences respectively (hence my point about falling away in the 2nd half of the season. We currently rank 16th for defence. We ended up conceding 40 or more points 8/14 games after round 11 last year. We got a couple of wins, but on the main we were less competitive than we were in first half of the season where our defence held together.
jirskyr said:
For 2022-2023 combined, total 8 wins all season, 50% of those were wins by 2 points or less (3 x 1-point wins). So we are actually very NON-competitive in the first half of the spoon years, both in terms of # wins and the size of our wins.

You can also see in 2025 that not only do we have fewer losses but we remain moderately competitive in those losses (~1/3 within 6 points). That's one of the important points about improving and avoiding the spoon, you want to be winning ~50% of your close games, not continually losing the close ones. You want to be both competitive and closing matches out. You also want to be winning by more than a whisker when you do win.
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Disagree, we are showing a trend that we are not able to hanging tough during the losses:
average loss margin up to round 11:
average loss margin 17.9 points 2025 (top 3 points conceded - 64, 46 and 38)
average loss margin 13 points 2024 (top 3 points conceded - 42, 34 and 32 twice)
average loss margin 2023 9.8 (top 3 points conceded - 46, 28 and 26)
jirskyr said:
Attack is very clearly better than previous 3 years, by a try or more except against 2023.
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Attack is improved, no arguments there. How much of this is down to some individual recruits? whichever way you spin it, we have been a hard watch in attack most of the time this year. The point you made about teams overall conceding more points works both ways, teams are obviously scoring more points too. We currently rank 13th in points scored for this year. Much improved on the last 2 years (16th and 17th)
jirskyr said:
Finally you say "very kind draw". We have already played 3 of the top 5 sides and we've only played 3 of the bottom 5 sides. That's rather average to get about half of the best and worst sides. And it makes a point, that I have made before - if we are playing some of the worse sides in the comp and winning more often, that is a POSITIVE.
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We have played 2 of the teams on the bottom of the table twice. Half our games have been against teams in a tie for last. The draw has been kind. Of course it is positive we have beaten these teams.

Overall, with a much, much improved squad our attack has improved marginally and our defence has gotten worse. We do have more wins, which is great, but there are some really worrying signs with both attack and defence imo. Maybe im glass half empty, I admire the eternal optimism. I do hope im eating an enormous humble pie come the end of the season.
 
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TYGA said:
We have a rough run coming up.

Bye, Cowboys away, Penrith CBA, BYE, Canberra CTown, Manly 4 Pines, Roosters Allianz, Warriors Auckland.

I can’t see us winning any of the next 6 games. And we may get pumped in all of them.

Run home Titans Leichhardt, Penrith CBA, Dogs CBA, BYE, Eagles Allianz, Cowboys Leichhardt, Canberra at Bruce Stadium.

We would be lucky to start two games favourites Titans and Cowboys at Leichhardt.

We better hope for injuries as we have played the easy part of the schedule.
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We will match Penrith's 4 peat, just at the other end of the table
 
weststigers said:
Yeah it's honestly a joke. They cream their pants when he makes one big play, but when he's having his usual bludge for 75% of the season they talk like he's pulling out blinders each week.

To think we could have been stuck with this bloke for 1.3 million a season. Bullet dodged.
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Yes, we’ve certainly recruited far more wisely . Not !!
 
TYGA said:
We have a rough run coming up.

Bye, Cowboys away, Penrith CBA, BYE, Canberra CTown, Manly 4 Pines, Roosters Allianz, Warriors Auckland.

I can’t see us winning any of the next 6 games. And we may get pumped in all of them.

Run home Titans Leichhardt, Penrith CBA, Dogs CBA, BYE, Eagles Allianz, Cowboys Leichhardt, Canberra at Bruce Stadium.

We would be lucky to start two games favourites Titans and Cowboys at Leichhardt.

We better hope for injuries as we have played the easy part of the schedule.
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We havent been too badly hit by injuries ourselves yet.
Shes a tough run home.
 
I'm thinking closer to 3 the way we are going at the moment but still avoiding the spoon.

I have to say that I do prefer your year end prediction which would leave us only one or two wins short of the top 8.
 
Halbrowne61 said:
Yes, we’ve certainly recruited far more wisely . Not !!
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We have 4 spots left on the roster for this year. I don't think the recruitment is finished yet, but 3 games come to mind where another couple of quality players get us over the line. Definitely could be 8 wins this season with a couple of those spots filled with quality first graders.
 
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