@strongee said in [Pangai Junior](/post/1410260) said:
@cochise said in [Pangai Junior](/post/1410239) said:
@coivtny said in [Pangai Junior](/post/1410234) said:
@cochise said in [Pangai Junior](/post/1410223) said:
@weststigerman said in [Pangai Junior](/post/1410221) said:
Was only a matter of time for us to start getting desperate. The club needs a positive story.
Hopefully Hartigan doesn’t offer too much.
I can tell you, it is very hard to move him from a valuation.
I think you're correct but I also think that sort of binary approach is flawed. We could bid and be outbid for the next 20 quality players that come on the market and all it would take is for one of the other clubs to pay overs. I think it's very useful to have a process to value players coming onto the market but you also got to be prepared to stretch your valuation for the right player. I'd stretch for Finucane but probably not for TPJ.
The idea is that by sticking to your valuations you are able to pay overs when the right player come along, so you are right. The player you do pay overs for has to be a player that would fundamentally change your club though, I'm not sure either TPJ or Finucane fall into that category. That is what the club is trying to achieve.
Not many players out there that are sure fire, slam dunk , guaranteed to move the needle , that paying overs would totally be worth it. Even Kalyn Ponga could very well this time next year , be talked about like Ash Taylor.
I have no idea how you roll the dice , and who to even roll the dice on . Eg . The Adam Blair signing was hailed as really smart business at the time . Same for the Ash Taylor signing . He was considered to be the next in line for origin .
All the admin jobs/ coaching jobs to a very large extent are solely dependant on whether or not the guy you’ve hitched your career to , has the right stuff upstairs .
There’s soo much control you give away of your own existence . And it’s all dependant on what happens for 80 minutes a week .
I think it can be fairly argued that many of the top-dollar players are not worth it, so it's a very big risk to sign big-dollars, and the risk is not limited to 1 or 2 desperate or irrational clubs.
According to The Australian in July 2020, Top 30 player salaries in a list below. Even taking the salaries with a grain of salt, assuming the rough order of top-paid players is close enough to being accurate, for the purposes of discussion. Here is the list, with my opinion - and I am including the benefit of hindsight, because recruitment is not just about what is a good deal at the time, it's about a good deal long-term.
* #30 = Shaun Johnson Sharks 800K = not worth it 2020, probably better form 2021
* Jake Turbo Manly 800K = worth it 2020, a little down 2021
* Damien Cook Souths 800K = worth it 2020-21
* Wighton Raiders 800K = worth it 2020-21
* Latrell Souths 800K = worth it 2021, even more value 2021 (his salary went up however?)
* Mitch Pearce 800K Knights = not worth it 2020 or 2021, including injury
* RCG Eels 800K = worth it 20-21
* Klemmer Knights 800K = maybe ok 2020, not worth it 2021
* Cam Smith Storm 800K = steal any year
* Mbye Tigers 815K = nope
* #20 Mitch Moses Eels 830K = I think he's a mug but I can't be subjective
* Moylan Sharks 850K = abject failure both seasons
* Ponga Knights 850K = 2020 worth it, 2021 worth it if he can stay on the field
* Andrew Fifita Sharks 850K = 2020 serious risk, 2021 absolute waste of money
* Dugan Sharks 850K = 2020 not great, 2021 horrendous
* Reynolds Tigers 850K = 2020 conceptually ok but injured, 2021 wiped
* Corey Norman Dragons 850K = waste of money
* Munster Storm 850K = deal
* Turbo Manly 900K = steal
* Jack Bird Broncos 975K = injury curse, can't exactly blame the club for that though he had some history
* #10 Tedesco Roosters 1M = deal
* Taumalolo Cowboys 1M = OK for 2020, starting to show cracks in value 2021 and only 4/10 years into the deal
* Milford Broncos 1M = waste of money both years
* Michael Morgan Cowboys 1M = understandable, but broke down
* Nathan Cleary Panthers 1M = deal
* Kieran Foran Dogs 1M = abject waste of money, he had that injury history, for 1M
* Ash Taylor 1M = abject waste
* RTS Warriors 1.1M = deal, he's a club pillar
* Ben Hunt Drags 1.2M = waste of money, worth half that
* DCE Manly 1.25M = good footballer, not close to 1.25M and depends whether Turbo is playing
Let's say my personal opinion is an average position to take on reported salaries, again not entirely focusing on salary value but rather relative position in the list of top-paid players. So Milford, no matter exactly what he is paid, is probably somewhere in the Top 10 of all players.
So of the Top 10 players, in my average opinion, 5-6 of those million-dollar players were, at best, an average decision, and at worst, absolutely horrendous wastes of money. Even allowing for some benefit of hindsight, for example Cowboys probably weren't to know that Morgan would break down and he was a key player for them at the time of the deal. On the other hand, Dogs knew Foran was very injury-prone.
So forget about criticising individual clubs, just consider that about 50% of million-dollar deals haven't work out, for one reason or another. And focus on the fact that these are approx $1M decisions, not moneyball type modest contracts. So clubs are required to be even more risk-adverse and more diligent in decision making when going in on deals of that size, because it's a very very significant salary cap allocation (10% give or take). You can less afford to mess it up.
And even worse, some of those deals don't just work out for the reported value, they don't work out at all, i.e. even if the player was on 3/4 or 1/2 the money it wouldn't be a good deal. Anthony Milford isn't performing at half his salary.
It's not limited to one club, though some are more represented than others in the Top 30 of mistakes. Very damning for Sharks and the QLD teams. Tigers are only represented by 2 Cleary-era signings, which is interesting - Madge has not overseen a high-value contract since he arrived, either through risk-aversion, lack of talent on market or inability to offer a big contract.
Note that the Top 2 sides (Panthers, Storm) are barely represented at all - better spread of money and talent.
I think the data from 2020 shows that the the higher the player gets paid (relative to their peers), the greater the chance of a substantially negative outcome. And not simply a dollar-value negative outcome (output per dollar), an all-points-considered negative outcome. Many of the worst performing players of the Top 30 are towards the top of the list.