Tevita Pangai Junior

[avocadoontoast]

Glad the club isn't panic buying .....

Happy, like most years they must be under big pressure to deliver a quality signing or a big name signing. With this season in absolute tatters and so far just a couple of doubtful signings from ESL, the marketing department will have a massive job selling merchandise and memberships for2022.

Guess that might be the reason for the renewed interest in TPJ

Hopefully Sheen delivers some superstars in his excess luggage .....

Mate I remember when I was a kid and the Tigers would sign a couple of 24 year olds from the bush that nobody had heard of and they would turn out to be quality FG footballers. These days every club has a spreadsheet and a video package on every kid from 12 to 22 who has the slightest hint of talent. Finding a diamond is near impossible.

Anyway maybe Sheens has the next Gareth Ellis lined up. You can always dream

Sheens has been finding diamonds in the rough for 30 years Wiki , Pongia ,Lomax ,Tuiaki etc etc etc etc

But we seen some signings ...I think the confidence across the entire club is at an all time low ......


With the exception of Tamou, BJ and JTJ (all were worth a crack), all of the Madge era signings have been good IMO.


 

[LeichhardtTiger]

Sorry, thought this was the Pangai thread. I'll leave you to it.

 

[Camel2281]

Was only a matter of time for us to start getting desperate. The club needs a positive story.

Hopefully Hartigan doesn’t offer too much.

I can tell you, it is very hard to move him from a valuation.

I think you're correct but I also think that sort of binary approach is flawed. We could bid and be outbid for the next 20 quality players that come on the market and all it would take is for one of the other clubs to pay overs. I think it's very useful to have a process to value players coming onto the market but you also got to be prepared to stretch your valuation for the right player. I'd stretch for Finucane but probably not for TPJ.

The idea is that by sticking to your valuations you are able to pay overs when the right player come along, so you are right. The player you do pay overs for has to be a player that would fundamentally change your club though, I'm not sure either TPJ or Finucane fall into that category. That is what the club is trying to achieve.

Not many players out there that are sure fire, slam dunk , guaranteed to move the needle , that paying overs would totally be worth it. Even Kalyn Ponga could very well this time next year , be talked about like Ash Taylor.
I have no idea how you roll the dice , and who to even roll the dice on . Eg . The Adam Blair signing was hailed as really smart business at the time . Same for the Ash Taylor signing . He was considered to be the next in line for origin .
All the admin jobs/ coaching jobs to a very large extent are solely dependant on whether or not the guy you’ve hitched your career to , has the right stuff upstairs .
There’s soo much control you give away of your own existence . And it’s all dependant on what happens for 80 minutes a week .

I think it can be fairly argued that many of the top-dollar players are not worth it, so it's a very big risk to sign big-dollars, and the risk is not limited to 1 or 2 desperate or irrational clubs.

According to The Australian in July 2020, Top 30 player salaries in a list below. Even taking the salaries with a grain of salt, assuming the rough order of top-paid players is close enough to being accurate, for the purposes of discussion. Here is the list, with my opinion - and I am including the benefit of hindsight, because recruitment is not just about what is a good deal at the time, it's about a good deal long-term.

* #30 = Shaun Johnson Sharks 800K = not worth it 2020, probably better form 2021
* Jake Turbo Manly 800K = worth it 2020, a little down 2021
* Damien Cook Souths 800K = worth it 2020-21
* Wighton Raiders 800K = worth it 2020-21
* Latrell Souths 800K = worth it 2021, even more value 2021 (his salary went up however?)
* Mitch Pearce 800K Knights = not worth it 2020 or 2021, including injury
* RCG Eels 800K = worth it 20-21
* Klemmer Knights 800K = maybe ok 2020, not worth it 2021
* Cam Smith Storm 800K = steal any year
* Mbye Tigers 815K = nope
* #20 Mitch Moses Eels 830K = I think he's a mug but I can't be subjective
* Moylan Sharks 850K = abject failure both seasons
* Ponga Knights 850K = 2020 worth it, 2021 worth it if he can stay on the field
* Andrew Fifita Sharks 850K = 2020 serious risk, 2021 absolute waste of money
* Dugan Sharks 850K = 2020 not great, 2021 horrendous
* Reynolds Tigers 850K = 2020 conceptually ok but injured, 2021 wiped
* Corey Norman Dragons 850K = waste of money
* Munster Storm 850K = deal
* Turbo Manly 900K = steal
* Jack Bird Broncos 975K = injury curse, can't exactly blame the club for that though he had some history
* #10 Tedesco Roosters 1M = deal
* Taumalolo Cowboys 1M = OK for 2020, starting to show cracks in value 2021 and only 4/10 years into the deal
* Milford Broncos 1M = waste of money both years
* Michael Morgan Cowboys 1M = understandable, but broke down
* Nathan Cleary Panthers 1M = deal
* Kieran Foran Dogs 1M = abject waste of money, he had that injury history, for 1M
* Ash Taylor 1M = abject waste
* RTS Warriors 1.1M = deal, he's a club pillar
* Ben Hunt Drags 1.2M = waste of money, worth half that
* DCE Manly 1.25M = good footballer, not close to 1.25M and depends whether Turbo is playing

Let's say my personal opinion is an average position to take on reported salaries, again not entirely focusing on salary value but rather relative position in the list of top-paid players. So Milford, no matter exactly what he is paid, is probably somewhere in the Top 10 of all players.

So of the Top 10 players, in my average opinion, 5-6 of those million-dollar players were, at best, an average decision, and at worst, absolutely horrendous wastes of money. Even allowing for some benefit of hindsight, for example Cowboys probably weren't to know that Morgan would break down and he was a key player for them at the time of the deal. On the other hand, Dogs knew Foran was very injury-prone.

So forget about criticising individual clubs, just consider that about 50% of million-dollar deals haven't work out, for one reason or another. And focus on the fact that these are approx $1M decisions, not moneyball type modest contracts. So clubs are required to be even more risk-adverse and more diligent in decision making when going in on deals of that size, because it's a very very significant salary cap allocation (10% give or take). You can less afford to mess it up.

And even worse, some of those deals don't just work out for the reported value, they don't work out at all, i.e. even if the player was on 3/4 or 1/2 the money it wouldn't be a good deal. Anthony Milford isn't performing at half his salary.

It's not limited to one club, though some are more represented than others in the Top 30 of mistakes. Very damning for Sharks and the QLD teams. Tigers are only represented by 2 Cleary-era signings, which is interesting - Madge has not overseen a high-value contract since he arrived, either through risk-aversion, lack of talent on market or inability to offer a big contract.

Note that the Top 2 sides (Panthers, Storm) are barely represented at all - better spread of money and talent.

I think the data from 2020 shows that the the higher the player gets paid (relative to their peers), the greater the chance of a substantially negative outcome. And not simply a dollar-value negative outcome (output per dollar), an all-points-considered negative outcome. Many of the worst performing players of the Top 30 are towards the top of the list.

No way Wighton is worth his paycheck 2021 as you listed. Bloke is playing trash

 

[TheDaBoss]

Glad the club isn't panic buying .....

Happy, like most years they must be under big pressure to deliver a quality signing or a big name signing. With this season in absolute tatters and so far just a couple of doubtful signings from ESL, the marketing department will have a massive job selling merchandise and memberships for2022.

Guess that might be the reason for the renewed interest in TPJ

Hopefully Sheen delivers some superstars in his excess luggage .....

Mate I remember when I was a kid and the Tigers would sign a couple of 24 year olds from the bush that nobody had heard of and they would turn out to be quality FG footballers. These days every club has a spreadsheet and a video package on every kid from 12 to 22 who has the slightest hint of talent. Finding a diamond is near impossible.

Anyway maybe Sheens has the next Gareth Ellis lined up. You can always dream

Sheens has been finding diamonds in the rough for 30 years Wiki , Pongia ,Lomax ,Tuiaki etc etc etc etc

But we seen some signings ...I think the confidence across the entire club is at an all time low ......


With the exception of Tamou, BJ and JTJ (all were worth a crack), all of the Madge era signings have been good IMO.


??? everyone's favourite nuffie

 

[AdelaideTiger]

Was only a matter of time for us to start getting desperate. The club needs a positive story.

Hopefully Hartigan doesn’t offer too much.

I can tell you, it is very hard to move him from a valuation.

I think you're correct but I also think that sort of binary approach is flawed. We could bid and be outbid for the next 20 quality players that come on the market and all it would take is for one of the other clubs to pay overs. I think it's very useful to have a process to value players coming onto the market but you also got to be prepared to stretch your valuation for the right player. I'd stretch for Finucane but probably not for TPJ.

The idea is that by sticking to your valuations you are able to pay overs when the right player come along, so you are right. The player you do pay overs for has to be a player that would fundamentally change your club though, I'm not sure either TPJ or Finucane fall into that category. That is what the club is trying to achieve.

Not many players out there that are sure fire, slam dunk , guaranteed to move the needle , that paying overs would totally be worth it. Even Kalyn Ponga could very well this time next year , be talked about like Ash Taylor.
I have no idea how you roll the dice , and who to even roll the dice on . Eg . The Adam Blair signing was hailed as really smart business at the time . Same for the Ash Taylor signing . He was considered to be the next in line for origin .
All the admin jobs/ coaching jobs to a very large extent are solely dependant on whether or not the guy you’ve hitched your career to , has the right stuff upstairs .
There’s soo much control you give away of your own existence . And it’s all dependant on what happens for 80 minutes a week .

I think it can be fairly argued that many of the top-dollar players are not worth it, so it's a very big risk to sign big-dollars, and the risk is not limited to 1 or 2 desperate or irrational clubs.

According to The Australian in July 2020, Top 30 player salaries in a list below. Even taking the salaries with a grain of salt, assuming the rough order of top-paid players is close enough to being accurate, for the purposes of discussion. Here is the list, with my opinion - and I am including the benefit of hindsight, because recruitment is not just about what is a good deal at the time, it's about a good deal long-term.

* #30 = Shaun Johnson Sharks 800K = not worth it 2020, probably better form 2021
* Jake Turbo Manly 800K = worth it 2020, a little down 2021
* Damien Cook Souths 800K = worth it 2020-21
* Wighton Raiders 800K = worth it 2020-21
* Latrell Souths 800K = worth it 2021, even more value 2021 (his salary went up however?)
* Mitch Pearce 800K Knights = not worth it 2020 or 2021, including injury
* RCG Eels 800K = worth it 20-21
* Klemmer Knights 800K = maybe ok 2020, not worth it 2021
* Cam Smith Storm 800K = steal any year
* Mbye Tigers 815K = nope
* #20 Mitch Moses Eels 830K = I think he's a mug but I can't be subjective
* Moylan Sharks 850K = abject failure both seasons
* Ponga Knights 850K = 2020 worth it, 2021 worth it if he can stay on the field
* Andrew Fifita Sharks 850K = 2020 serious risk, 2021 absolute waste of money
* Dugan Sharks 850K = 2020 not great, 2021 horrendous
* Reynolds Tigers 850K = 2020 conceptually ok but injured, 2021 wiped
* Corey Norman Dragons 850K = waste of money
* Munster Storm 850K = deal
* Turbo Manly 900K = steal
* Jack Bird Broncos 975K = injury curse, can't exactly blame the club for that though he had some history
* #10 Tedesco Roosters 1M = deal
* Taumalolo Cowboys 1M = OK for 2020, starting to show cracks in value 2021 and only 4/10 years into the deal
* Milford Broncos 1M = waste of money both years
* Michael Morgan Cowboys 1M = understandable, but broke down
* Nathan Cleary Panthers 1M = deal
* Kieran Foran Dogs 1M = abject waste of money, he had that injury history, for 1M
* Ash Taylor 1M = abject waste
* RTS Warriors 1.1M = deal, he's a club pillar
* Ben Hunt Drags 1.2M = waste of money, worth half that
* DCE Manly 1.25M = good footballer, not close to 1.25M and depends whether Turbo is playing

Let's say my personal opinion is an average position to take on reported salaries, again not entirely focusing on salary value but rather relative position in the list of top-paid players. So Milford, no matter exactly what he is paid, is probably somewhere in the Top 10 of all players.

So of the Top 10 players, in my average opinion, 5-6 of those million-dollar players were, at best, an average decision, and at worst, absolutely horrendous wastes of money. Even allowing for some benefit of hindsight, for example Cowboys probably weren't to know that Morgan would break down and he was a key player for them at the time of the deal. On the other hand, Dogs knew Foran was very injury-prone.

So forget about criticising individual clubs, just consider that about 50% of million-dollar deals haven't work out, for one reason or another. And focus on the fact that these are approx $1M decisions, not moneyball type modest contracts. So clubs are required to be even more risk-adverse and more diligent in decision making when going in on deals of that size, because it's a very very significant salary cap allocation (10% give or take). You can less afford to mess it up.

And even worse, some of those deals don't just work out for the reported value, they don't work out at all, i.e. even if the player was on 3/4 or 1/2 the money it wouldn't be a good deal. Anthony Milford isn't performing at half his salary.

It's not limited to one club, though some are more represented than others in the Top 30 of mistakes. Very damning for Sharks and the QLD teams. Tigers are only represented by 2 Cleary-era signings, which is interesting - Madge has not overseen a high-value contract since he arrived, either through risk-aversion, lack of talent on market or inability to offer a big contract.

Note that the Top 2 sides (Panthers, Storm) are barely represented at all - better spread of money and talent.

I think the data from 2020 shows that the the higher the player gets paid (relative to their peers), the greater the chance of a substantially negative outcome. And not simply a dollar-value negative outcome (output per dollar), an all-points-considered negative outcome. Many of the worst performing players of the Top 30 are towards the top of the list.

Interesting that Luke Brooks isn't on here. Jurno's always seem to think he is on $850k plus whenever he isn't playing well.

 

[Tiger5150]

Was only a matter of time for us to start getting desperate. The club needs a positive story.

Hopefully Hartigan doesn’t offer too much.

I can tell you, it is very hard to move him from a valuation.

I think you're correct but I also think that sort of binary approach is flawed. We could bid and be outbid for the next 20 quality players that come on the market and all it would take is for one of the other clubs to pay overs. I think it's very useful to have a process to value players coming onto the market but you also got to be prepared to stretch your valuation for the right player. I'd stretch for Finucane but probably not for TPJ.

The idea is that by sticking to your valuations you are able to pay overs when the right player come along, so you are right. The player you do pay overs for has to be a player that would fundamentally change your club though, I'm not sure either TPJ or Finucane fall into that category. That is what the club is trying to achieve.

Not many players out there that are sure fire, slam dunk , guaranteed to move the needle , that paying overs would totally be worth it. Even Kalyn Ponga could very well this time next year , be talked about like Ash Taylor.
I have no idea how you roll the dice , and who to even roll the dice on . Eg . The Adam Blair signing was hailed as really smart business at the time . Same for the Ash Taylor signing . He was considered to be the next in line for origin .
All the admin jobs/ coaching jobs to a very large extent are solely dependant on whether or not the guy you’ve hitched your career to , has the right stuff upstairs .
There’s soo much control you give away of your own existence . And it’s all dependant on what happens for 80 minutes a week .

I think it can be fairly argued that many of the top-dollar players are not worth it, so it's a very big risk to sign big-dollars, and the risk is not limited to 1 or 2 desperate or irrational clubs.

According to The Australian in July 2020, Top 30 player salaries in a list below. Even taking the salaries with a grain of salt, assuming the rough order of top-paid players is close enough to being accurate, for the purposes of discussion. Here is the list, with my opinion - and I am including the benefit of hindsight, because recruitment is not just about what is a good deal at the time, it's about a good deal long-term.

* #30 = Shaun Johnson Sharks 800K = not worth it 2020, probably better form 2021
* Jake Turbo Manly 800K = worth it 2020, a little down 2021
* Damien Cook Souths 800K = worth it 2020-21
* Wighton Raiders 800K = worth it 2020-21
* Latrell Souths 800K = worth it 2021, even more value 2021 (his salary went up however?)
* Mitch Pearce 800K Knights = not worth it 2020 or 2021, including injury
* RCG Eels 800K = worth it 20-21
* Klemmer Knights 800K = maybe ok 2020, not worth it 2021
* Cam Smith Storm 800K = steal any year
* Mbye Tigers 815K = nope
* #20 Mitch Moses Eels 830K = I think he's a mug but I can't be subjective
* Moylan Sharks 850K = abject failure both seasons
* Ponga Knights 850K = 2020 worth it, 2021 worth it if he can stay on the field
* Andrew Fifita Sharks 850K = 2020 serious risk, 2021 absolute waste of money
* Dugan Sharks 850K = 2020 not great, 2021 horrendous
* Reynolds Tigers 850K = 2020 conceptually ok but injured, 2021 wiped
* Corey Norman Dragons 850K = waste of money
* Munster Storm 850K = deal
* Turbo Manly 900K = steal
* Jack Bird Broncos 975K = injury curse, can't exactly blame the club for that though he had some history
* #10 Tedesco Roosters 1M = deal
* Taumalolo Cowboys 1M = OK for 2020, starting to show cracks in value 2021 and only 4/10 years into the deal
* Milford Broncos 1M = waste of money both years
* Michael Morgan Cowboys 1M = understandable, but broke down
* Nathan Cleary Panthers 1M = deal
* Kieran Foran Dogs 1M = abject waste of money, he had that injury history, for 1M
* Ash Taylor 1M = abject waste
* RTS Warriors 1.1M = deal, he's a club pillar
* Ben Hunt Drags 1.2M = waste of money, worth half that
* DCE Manly 1.25M = good footballer, not close to 1.25M and depends whether Turbo is playing

Let's say my personal opinion is an average position to take on reported salaries, again not entirely focusing on salary value but rather relative position in the list of top-paid players. So Milford, no matter exactly what he is paid, is probably somewhere in the Top 10 of all players.

So of the Top 10 players, in my average opinion, 5-6 of those million-dollar players were, at best, an average decision, and at worst, absolutely horrendous wastes of money. Even allowing for some benefit of hindsight, for example Cowboys probably weren't to know that Morgan would break down and he was a key player for them at the time of the deal. On the other hand, Dogs knew Foran was very injury-prone.

So forget about criticising individual clubs, just consider that about 50% of million-dollar deals haven't work out, for one reason or another. And focus on the fact that these are approx $1M decisions, not moneyball type modest contracts. So clubs are required to be even more risk-adverse and more diligent in decision making when going in on deals of that size, because it's a very very significant salary cap allocation (10% give or take). You can less afford to mess it up.

And even worse, some of those deals don't just work out for the reported value, they don't work out at all, i.e. even if the player was on 3/4 or 1/2 the money it wouldn't be a good deal. Anthony Milford isn't performing at half his salary.

It's not limited to one club, though some are more represented than others in the Top 30 of mistakes. Very damning for Sharks and the QLD teams. Tigers are only represented by 2 Cleary-era signings, which is interesting - Madge has not overseen a high-value contract since he arrived, either through risk-aversion, lack of talent on market or inability to offer a big contract.

Note that the Top 2 sides (Panthers, Storm) are barely represented at all - better spread of money and talent.

I think the data from 2020 shows that the the higher the player gets paid (relative to their peers), the greater the chance of a substantially negative outcome. And not simply a dollar-value negative outcome (output per dollar), an all-points-considered negative outcome. Many of the worst performing players of the Top 30 are towards the top of the list.

Interesting that Luke Brooks isn't on here. Jurno's always seem to think he is on $850k plus whenever he isn't playing well.

Because Brooks is actually providing value on his Contract atm, one of the few.

 

[happy_tiger]

Glad the club isn't panic buying .....

Happy, like most years they must be under big pressure to deliver a quality signing or a big name signing. With this season in absolute tatters and so far just a couple of doubtful signings from ESL, the marketing department will have a massive job selling merchandise and memberships for2022.

Guess that might be the reason for the renewed interest in TPJ

Hopefully Sheen delivers some superstars in his excess luggage .....

Mate I remember when I was a kid and the Tigers would sign a couple of 24 year olds from the bush that nobody had heard of and they would turn out to be quality FG footballers. These days every club has a spreadsheet and a video package on every kid from 12 to 22 who has the slightest hint of talent. Finding a diamond is near impossible.

Anyway maybe Sheens has the next Gareth Ellis lined up. You can always dream

Sheens has been finding diamonds in the rough for 30 years Wiki , Pongia ,Lomax ,Tuiaki etc etc etc etc

But we seen some signings ...I think the confidence across the entire club is at an all time low ......


With the exception of Tamou, BJ and JTJ (all were worth a crack), all of the Madge era signings have been good IMO.

Cmon most are juniors and the jury is still out

 

[Tiger5150]

Glad the club isn't panic buying .....

Happy, like most years they must be under big pressure to deliver a quality signing or a big name signing. With this season in absolute tatters and so far just a couple of doubtful signings from ESL, the marketing department will have a massive job selling merchandise and memberships for2022.

Guess that might be the reason for the renewed interest in TPJ

Hopefully Sheen delivers some superstars in his excess luggage .....

Mate I remember when I was a kid and the Tigers would sign a couple of 24 year olds from the bush that nobody had heard of and they would turn out to be quality FG footballers. These days every club has a spreadsheet and a video package on every kid from 12 to 22 who has the slightest hint of talent. Finding a diamond is near impossible.

Anyway maybe Sheens has the next Gareth Ellis lined up. You can always dream

Sheens has been finding diamonds in the rough for 30 years Wiki , Pongia ,Lomax ,Tuiaki etc etc etc etc

But we seen some signings ...I think the confidence across the entire club is at an all time low ......


With the exception of Tamou, BJ and JTJ (all were worth a crack), all of the Madge era signings have been good IMO.

Cmon most are juniors and the jury is still out

Stef, Joe O, Laurie, Doueihi, Blore, LL, are the ones that a future competitive team will be built around.

Amone, Musgrove, Kepaoa, Maumalo, IMO the jury is still out...

Tamou, BJ & JTJ we could have done out without but two of them are cheap and IMO they were worth a crack.

 

[jirskyr]

No way Wighton is worth his paycheck 2021 as you listed. Bloke is playing trash

Hmm - would Tigers take him at 800K, immediate transfer? Answer is yes, so I'd say he's worth it. Current Origin player. His entire side is doing badly 2021 so it reflects badly.

 

[happy_tiger]

Glad the club isn't panic buying .....

Happy, like most years they must be under big pressure to deliver a quality signing or a big name signing. With this season in absolute tatters and so far just a couple of doubtful signings from ESL, the marketing department will have a massive job selling merchandise and memberships for2022.

Guess that might be the reason for the renewed interest in TPJ

Hopefully Sheen delivers some superstars in his excess luggage .....

Mate I remember when I was a kid and the Tigers would sign a couple of 24 year olds from the bush that nobody had heard of and they would turn out to be quality FG footballers. These days every club has a spreadsheet and a video package on every kid from 12 to 22 who has the slightest hint of talent. Finding a diamond is near impossible.

Anyway maybe Sheens has the next Gareth Ellis lined up. You can always dream

Sheens has been finding diamonds in the rough for 30 years Wiki , Pongia ,Lomax ,Tuiaki etc etc etc etc

But we seen some signings ...I think the confidence across the entire club is at an all time low ......


With the exception of Tamou, BJ and JTJ (all were worth a crack), all of the Madge era signings have been good IMO.

Cmon most are juniors and the jury is still out


Stef, Joe O, Laurie, Doueihi, Blore, LL, are the ones that a future competitive team will be built around.

Amone, Musgrove, Kepaoa, Maumalo, IMO the jury is still out...

Tamou, BJ & JTJ we could have done out without but two of them are cheap and IMO they were worth a crack.

Blore = Blah Blah Blah

 

[earl]

Was only a matter of time for us to start getting desperate. The club needs a positive story.

Hopefully Hartigan doesn’t offer too much.

I can tell you, it is very hard to move him from a valuation.

I think you're correct but I also think that sort of binary approach is flawed. We could bid and be outbid for the next 20 quality players that come on the market and all it would take is for one of the other clubs to pay overs. I think it's very useful to have a process to value players coming onto the market but you also got to be prepared to stretch your valuation for the right player. I'd stretch for Finucane but probably not for TPJ.

The idea is that by sticking to your valuations you are able to pay overs when the right player come along, so you are right. The player you do pay overs for has to be a player that would fundamentally change your club though, I'm not sure either TPJ or Finucane fall into that category. That is what the club is trying to achieve.

Not many players out there that are sure fire, slam dunk , guaranteed to move the needle , that paying overs would totally be worth it. Even Kalyn Ponga could very well this time next year , be talked about like Ash Taylor.
I have no idea how you roll the dice , and who to even roll the dice on . Eg . The Adam Blair signing was hailed as really smart business at the time . Same for the Ash Taylor signing . He was considered to be the next in line for origin .
All the admin jobs/ coaching jobs to a very large extent are solely dependant on whether or not the guy you’ve hitched your career to , has the right stuff upstairs .
There’s soo much control you give away of your own existence . And it’s all dependant on what happens for 80 minutes a week .

I think it can be fairly argued that many of the top-dollar players are not worth it, so it's a very big risk to sign big-dollars, and the risk is not limited to 1 or 2 desperate or irrational clubs.

According to The Australian in July 2020, Top 30 player salaries in a list below. Even taking the salaries with a grain of salt, assuming the rough order of top-paid players is close enough to being accurate, for the purposes of discussion. Here is the list, with my opinion - and I am including the benefit of hindsight, because recruitment is not just about what is a good deal at the time, it's about a good deal long-term.

* #30 = Shaun Johnson Sharks 800K = not worth it 2020, probably better form 2021
* Jake Turbo Manly 800K = worth it 2020, a little down 2021
* Damien Cook Souths 800K = worth it 2020-21
* Wighton Raiders 800K = worth it 2020-21
* Latrell Souths 800K = worth it 2021, even more value 2021 (his salary went up however?)
* Mitch Pearce 800K Knights = not worth it 2020 or 2021, including injury
* RCG Eels 800K = worth it 20-21
* Klemmer Knights 800K = maybe ok 2020, not worth it 2021
* Cam Smith Storm 800K = steal any year
* Mbye Tigers 815K = nope
* #20 Mitch Moses Eels 830K = I think he's a mug but I can't be subjective
* Moylan Sharks 850K = abject failure both seasons
* Ponga Knights 850K = 2020 worth it, 2021 worth it if he can stay on the field
* Andrew Fifita Sharks 850K = 2020 serious risk, 2021 absolute waste of money
* Dugan Sharks 850K = 2020 not great, 2021 horrendous
* Reynolds Tigers 850K = 2020 conceptually ok but injured, 2021 wiped
* Corey Norman Dragons 850K = waste of money
* Munster Storm 850K = deal
* Turbo Manly 900K = steal
* Jack Bird Broncos 975K = injury curse, can't exactly blame the club for that though he had some history
* #10 Tedesco Roosters 1M = deal
* Taumalolo Cowboys 1M = OK for 2020, starting to show cracks in value 2021 and only 4/10 years into the deal
* Milford Broncos 1M = waste of money both years
* Michael Morgan Cowboys 1M = understandable, but broke down
* Nathan Cleary Panthers 1M = deal
* Kieran Foran Dogs 1M = abject waste of money, he had that injury history, for 1M
* Ash Taylor 1M = abject waste
* RTS Warriors 1.1M = deal, he's a club pillar
* Ben Hunt Drags 1.2M = waste of money, worth half that
* DCE Manly 1.25M = good footballer, not close to 1.25M and depends whether Turbo is playing

Let's say my personal opinion is an average position to take on reported salaries, again not entirely focusing on salary value but rather relative position in the list of top-paid players. So Milford, no matter exactly what he is paid, is probably somewhere in the Top 10 of all players.

So of the Top 10 players, in my average opinion, 5-6 of those million-dollar players were, at best, an average decision, and at worst, absolutely horrendous wastes of money. Even allowing for some benefit of hindsight, for example Cowboys probably weren't to know that Morgan would break down and he was a key player for them at the time of the deal. On the other hand, Dogs knew Foran was very injury-prone.

So forget about criticising individual clubs, just consider that about 50% of million-dollar deals haven't work out, for one reason or another. And focus on the fact that these are approx $1M decisions, not moneyball type modest contracts. So clubs are required to be even more risk-adverse and more diligent in decision making when going in on deals of that size, because it's a very very significant salary cap allocation (10% give or take). You can less afford to mess it up.

And even worse, some of those deals don't just work out for the reported value, they don't work out at all, i.e. even if the player was on 3/4 or 1/2 the money it wouldn't be a good deal. Anthony Milford isn't performing at half his salary.

It's not limited to one club, though some are more represented than others in the Top 30 of mistakes. Very damning for Sharks and the QLD teams. Tigers are only represented by 2 Cleary-era signings, which is interesting - Madge has not overseen a high-value contract since he arrived, either through risk-aversion, lack of talent on market or inability to offer a big contract.

Note that the Top 2 sides (Panthers, Storm) are barely represented at all - better spread of money and talent.

I think the data from 2020 shows that the the higher the player gets paid (relative to their peers), the greater the chance of a substantially negative outcome. And not simply a dollar-value negative outcome (output per dollar), an all-points-considered negative outcome. Many of the worst performing players of the Top 30 are towards the top of the list.

Interesting that Luke Brooks isn't on here. Jurno's always seem to think he is on $850k plus whenever he isn't playing well.


Because Brooks is actually providing value on his Contract atm, one of the few.

It was reported at the time being something like 500k.

 

[Tiger5150]

Was only a matter of time for us to start getting desperate. The club needs a positive story.

Hopefully Hartigan doesn’t offer too much.

I can tell you, it is very hard to move him from a valuation.

I think you're correct but I also think that sort of binary approach is flawed. We could bid and be outbid for the next 20 quality players that come on the market and all it would take is for one of the other clubs to pay overs. I think it's very useful to have a process to value players coming onto the market but you also got to be prepared to stretch your valuation for the right player. I'd stretch for Finucane but probably not for TPJ.

The idea is that by sticking to your valuations you are able to pay overs when the right player come along, so you are right. The player you do pay overs for has to be a player that would fundamentally change your club though, I'm not sure either TPJ or Finucane fall into that category. That is what the club is trying to achieve.

Not many players out there that are sure fire, slam dunk , guaranteed to move the needle , that paying overs would totally be worth it. Even Kalyn Ponga could very well this time next year , be talked about like Ash Taylor.
I have no idea how you roll the dice , and who to even roll the dice on . Eg . The Adam Blair signing was hailed as really smart business at the time . Same for the Ash Taylor signing . He was considered to be the next in line for origin .
All the admin jobs/ coaching jobs to a very large extent are solely dependant on whether or not the guy you’ve hitched your career to , has the right stuff upstairs .
There’s soo much control you give away of your own existence . And it’s all dependant on what happens for 80 minutes a week .

I think it can be fairly argued that many of the top-dollar players are not worth it, so it's a very big risk to sign big-dollars, and the risk is not limited to 1 or 2 desperate or irrational clubs.

According to The Australian in July 2020, Top 30 player salaries in a list below. Even taking the salaries with a grain of salt, assuming the rough order of top-paid players is close enough to being accurate, for the purposes of discussion. Here is the list, with my opinion - and I am including the benefit of hindsight, because recruitment is not just about what is a good deal at the time, it's about a good deal long-term.

* #30 = Shaun Johnson Sharks 800K = not worth it 2020, probably better form 2021
* Jake Turbo Manly 800K = worth it 2020, a little down 2021
* Damien Cook Souths 800K = worth it 2020-21
* Wighton Raiders 800K = worth it 2020-21
* Latrell Souths 800K = worth it 2021, even more value 2021 (his salary went up however?)
* Mitch Pearce 800K Knights = not worth it 2020 or 2021, including injury
* RCG Eels 800K = worth it 20-21
* Klemmer Knights 800K = maybe ok 2020, not worth it 2021
* Cam Smith Storm 800K = steal any year
* Mbye Tigers 815K = nope
* #20 Mitch Moses Eels 830K = I think he's a mug but I can't be subjective
* Moylan Sharks 850K = abject failure both seasons
* Ponga Knights 850K = 2020 worth it, 2021 worth it if he can stay on the field
* Andrew Fifita Sharks 850K = 2020 serious risk, 2021 absolute waste of money
* Dugan Sharks 850K = 2020 not great, 2021 horrendous
* Reynolds Tigers 850K = 2020 conceptually ok but injured, 2021 wiped
* Corey Norman Dragons 850K = waste of money
* Munster Storm 850K = deal
* Turbo Manly 900K = steal
* Jack Bird Broncos 975K = injury curse, can't exactly blame the club for that though he had some history
* #10 Tedesco Roosters 1M = deal
* Taumalolo Cowboys 1M = OK for 2020, starting to show cracks in value 2021 and only 4/10 years into the deal
* Milford Broncos 1M = waste of money both years
* Michael Morgan Cowboys 1M = understandable, but broke down
* Nathan Cleary Panthers 1M = deal
* Kieran Foran Dogs 1M = abject waste of money, he had that injury history, for 1M
* Ash Taylor 1M = abject waste
* RTS Warriors 1.1M = deal, he's a club pillar
* Ben Hunt Drags 1.2M = waste of money, worth half that
* DCE Manly 1.25M = good footballer, not close to 1.25M and depends whether Turbo is playing

Let's say my personal opinion is an average position to take on reported salaries, again not entirely focusing on salary value but rather relative position in the list of top-paid players. So Milford, no matter exactly what he is paid, is probably somewhere in the Top 10 of all players.

So of the Top 10 players, in my average opinion, 5-6 of those million-dollar players were, at best, an average decision, and at worst, absolutely horrendous wastes of money. Even allowing for some benefit of hindsight, for example Cowboys probably weren't to know that Morgan would break down and he was a key player for them at the time of the deal. On the other hand, Dogs knew Foran was very injury-prone.

So forget about criticising individual clubs, just consider that about 50% of million-dollar deals haven't work out, for one reason or another. And focus on the fact that these are approx $1M decisions, not moneyball type modest contracts. So clubs are required to be even more risk-adverse and more diligent in decision making when going in on deals of that size, because it's a very very significant salary cap allocation (10% give or take). You can less afford to mess it up.

And even worse, some of those deals don't just work out for the reported value, they don't work out at all, i.e. even if the player was on 3/4 or 1/2 the money it wouldn't be a good deal. Anthony Milford isn't performing at half his salary.

It's not limited to one club, though some are more represented than others in the Top 30 of mistakes. Very damning for Sharks and the QLD teams. Tigers are only represented by 2 Cleary-era signings, which is interesting - Madge has not overseen a high-value contract since he arrived, either through risk-aversion, lack of talent on market or inability to offer a big contract.

Note that the Top 2 sides (Panthers, Storm) are barely represented at all - better spread of money and talent.

I think the data from 2020 shows that the the higher the player gets paid (relative to their peers), the greater the chance of a substantially negative outcome. And not simply a dollar-value negative outcome (output per dollar), an all-points-considered negative outcome. Many of the worst performing players of the Top 30 are towards the top of the list.

Interesting that Luke Brooks isn't on here. Jurno's always seem to think he is on $850k plus whenever he isn't playing well.


Because Brooks is actually providing value on his Contract atm, one of the few.

It was reported at the time being something like 500k.

When he signed and Moses, Teddy & Woods left, he signed for $550K. He has been upgraded since then. He is on more than that.

 

[earl]

Was only a matter of time for us to start getting desperate. The club needs a positive story.

Hopefully Hartigan doesn’t offer too much.

I can tell you, it is very hard to move him from a valuation.

I think you're correct but I also think that sort of binary approach is flawed. We could bid and be outbid for the next 20 quality players that come on the market and all it would take is for one of the other clubs to pay overs. I think it's very useful to have a process to value players coming onto the market but you also got to be prepared to stretch your valuation for the right player. I'd stretch for Finucane but probably not for TPJ.

The idea is that by sticking to your valuations you are able to pay overs when the right player come along, so you are right. The player you do pay overs for has to be a player that would fundamentally change your club though, I'm not sure either TPJ or Finucane fall into that category. That is what the club is trying to achieve.

Not many players out there that are sure fire, slam dunk , guaranteed to move the needle , that paying overs would totally be worth it. Even Kalyn Ponga could very well this time next year , be talked about like Ash Taylor.
I have no idea how you roll the dice , and who to even roll the dice on . Eg . The Adam Blair signing was hailed as really smart business at the time . Same for the Ash Taylor signing . He was considered to be the next in line for origin .
All the admin jobs/ coaching jobs to a very large extent are solely dependant on whether or not the guy you’ve hitched your career to , has the right stuff upstairs .
There’s soo much control you give away of your own existence . And it’s all dependant on what happens for 80 minutes a week .

I think it can be fairly argued that many of the top-dollar players are not worth it, so it's a very big risk to sign big-dollars, and the risk is not limited to 1 or 2 desperate or irrational clubs.

According to The Australian in July 2020, Top 30 player salaries in a list below. Even taking the salaries with a grain of salt, assuming the rough order of top-paid players is close enough to being accurate, for the purposes of discussion. Here is the list, with my opinion - and I am including the benefit of hindsight, because recruitment is not just about what is a good deal at the time, it's about a good deal long-term.

* #30 = Shaun Johnson Sharks 800K = not worth it 2020, probably better form 2021
* Jake Turbo Manly 800K = worth it 2020, a little down 2021
* Damien Cook Souths 800K = worth it 2020-21
* Wighton Raiders 800K = worth it 2020-21
* Latrell Souths 800K = worth it 2021, even more value 2021 (his salary went up however?)
* Mitch Pearce 800K Knights = not worth it 2020 or 2021, including injury
* RCG Eels 800K = worth it 20-21
* Klemmer Knights 800K = maybe ok 2020, not worth it 2021
* Cam Smith Storm 800K = steal any year
* Mbye Tigers 815K = nope
* #20 Mitch Moses Eels 830K = I think he's a mug but I can't be subjective
* Moylan Sharks 850K = abject failure both seasons
* Ponga Knights 850K = 2020 worth it, 2021 worth it if he can stay on the field
* Andrew Fifita Sharks 850K = 2020 serious risk, 2021 absolute waste of money
* Dugan Sharks 850K = 2020 not great, 2021 horrendous
* Reynolds Tigers 850K = 2020 conceptually ok but injured, 2021 wiped
* Corey Norman Dragons 850K = waste of money
* Munster Storm 850K = deal
* Turbo Manly 900K = steal
* Jack Bird Broncos 975K = injury curse, can't exactly blame the club for that though he had some history
* #10 Tedesco Roosters 1M = deal
* Taumalolo Cowboys 1M = OK for 2020, starting to show cracks in value 2021 and only 4/10 years into the deal
* Milford Broncos 1M = waste of money both years
* Michael Morgan Cowboys 1M = understandable, but broke down
* Nathan Cleary Panthers 1M = deal
* Kieran Foran Dogs 1M = abject waste of money, he had that injury history, for 1M
* Ash Taylor 1M = abject waste
* RTS Warriors 1.1M = deal, he's a club pillar
* Ben Hunt Drags 1.2M = waste of money, worth half that
* DCE Manly 1.25M = good footballer, not close to 1.25M and depends whether Turbo is playing

Let's say my personal opinion is an average position to take on reported salaries, again not entirely focusing on salary value but rather relative position in the list of top-paid players. So Milford, no matter exactly what he is paid, is probably somewhere in the Top 10 of all players.

So of the Top 10 players, in my average opinion, 5-6 of those million-dollar players were, at best, an average decision, and at worst, absolutely horrendous wastes of money. Even allowing for some benefit of hindsight, for example Cowboys probably weren't to know that Morgan would break down and he was a key player for them at the time of the deal. On the other hand, Dogs knew Foran was very injury-prone.

So forget about criticising individual clubs, just consider that about 50% of million-dollar deals haven't work out, for one reason or another. And focus on the fact that these are approx $1M decisions, not moneyball type modest contracts. So clubs are required to be even more risk-adverse and more diligent in decision making when going in on deals of that size, because it's a very very significant salary cap allocation (10% give or take). You can less afford to mess it up.

And even worse, some of those deals don't just work out for the reported value, they don't work out at all, i.e. even if the player was on 3/4 or 1/2 the money it wouldn't be a good deal. Anthony Milford isn't performing at half his salary.

It's not limited to one club, though some are more represented than others in the Top 30 of mistakes. Very damning for Sharks and the QLD teams. Tigers are only represented by 2 Cleary-era signings, which is interesting - Madge has not overseen a high-value contract since he arrived, either through risk-aversion, lack of talent on market or inability to offer a big contract.

Note that the Top 2 sides (Panthers, Storm) are barely represented at all - better spread of money and talent.

I think the data from 2020 shows that the the higher the player gets paid (relative to their peers), the greater the chance of a substantially negative outcome. And not simply a dollar-value negative outcome (output per dollar), an all-points-considered negative outcome. Many of the worst performing players of the Top 30 are towards the top of the list.

Interesting that Luke Brooks isn't on here. Jurno's always seem to think he is on $850k plus whenever he isn't playing well.


Because Brooks is actually providing value on his Contract atm, one of the few.

It was reported at the time being something like 500k.


When he signed and Moses, Teddy & Woods left, he signed for $550K. He has been upgraded since then. He is on more than that.

Or extended. I wonder how much he got. I'm skeptical of the 850k figure. Still that is probably still fair value based on his performances.

 

[Tigerboy]

No way Wighton is worth his paycheck 2021 as you listed. Bloke is playing trash

Hmm - would Tigers take him at 800K, immediate transfer? Answer is yes, so I'd say he's worth it. Current Origin player. His entire side is doing badly 2021 so it reflects badly.

You said he’s worth his pay check - wrong and idk what you’ve been watching this year

 

[pawsandclaws1]

Was only a matter of time for us to start getting desperate. The club needs a positive story.

Hopefully Hartigan doesn’t offer too much.

I can tell you, it is very hard to move him from a valuation.

I think you're correct but I also think that sort of binary approach is flawed. We could bid and be outbid for the next 20 quality players that come on the market and all it would take is for one of the other clubs to pay overs. I think it's very useful to have a process to value players coming onto the market but you also got to be prepared to stretch your valuation for the right player. I'd stretch for Finucane but probably not for TPJ.

The idea is that by sticking to your valuations you are able to pay overs when the right player come along, so you are right. The player you do pay overs for has to be a player that would fundamentally change your club though, I'm not sure either TPJ or Finucane fall into that category. That is what the club is trying to achieve.

Not many players out there that are sure fire, slam dunk , guaranteed to move the needle , that paying overs would totally be worth it. Even Kalyn Ponga could very well this time next year , be talked about like Ash Taylor.
I have no idea how you roll the dice , and who to even roll the dice on . Eg . The Adam Blair signing was hailed as really smart business at the time . Same for the Ash Taylor signing . He was considered to be the next in line for origin .
All the admin jobs/ coaching jobs to a very large extent are solely dependant on whether or not the guy you’ve hitched your career to , has the right stuff upstairs .
There’s soo much control you give away of your own existence . And it’s all dependant on what happens for 80 minutes a week .

I think it can be fairly argued that many of the top-dollar players are not worth it, so it's a very big risk to sign big-dollars, and the risk is not limited to 1 or 2 desperate or irrational clubs.

According to The Australian in July 2020, Top 30 player salaries in a list below. Even taking the salaries with a grain of salt, assuming the rough order of top-paid players is close enough to being accurate, for the purposes of discussion. Here is the list, with my opinion - and I am including the benefit of hindsight, because recruitment is not just about what is a good deal at the time, it's about a good deal long-term.

* #30 = Shaun Johnson Sharks 800K = not worth it 2020, probably better form 2021
* Jake Turbo Manly 800K = worth it 2020, a little down 2021
* Damien Cook Souths 800K = worth it 2020-21
* Wighton Raiders 800K = worth it 2020-21
* Latrell Souths 800K = worth it 2021, even more value 2021 (his salary went up however?)
* Mitch Pearce 800K Knights = not worth it 2020 or 2021, including injury
* RCG Eels 800K = worth it 20-21
* Klemmer Knights 800K = maybe ok 2020, not worth it 2021
* Cam Smith Storm 800K = steal any year
* Mbye Tigers 815K = nope
* #20 Mitch Moses Eels 830K = I think he's a mug but I can't be subjective
* Moylan Sharks 850K = abject failure both seasons
* Ponga Knights 850K = 2020 worth it, 2021 worth it if he can stay on the field
* Andrew Fifita Sharks 850K = 2020 serious risk, 2021 absolute waste of money
* Dugan Sharks 850K = 2020 not great, 2021 horrendous
* Reynolds Tigers 850K = 2020 conceptually ok but injured, 2021 wiped
* Corey Norman Dragons 850K = waste of money
* Munster Storm 850K = deal
* Turbo Manly 900K = steal
* Jack Bird Broncos 975K = injury curse, can't exactly blame the club for that though he had some history
* #10 Tedesco Roosters 1M = deal
* Taumalolo Cowboys 1M = OK for 2020, starting to show cracks in value 2021 and only 4/10 years into the deal
* Milford Broncos 1M = waste of money both years
* Michael Morgan Cowboys 1M = understandable, but broke down
* Nathan Cleary Panthers 1M = deal
* Kieran Foran Dogs 1M = abject waste of money, he had that injury history, for 1M
* Ash Taylor 1M = abject waste
* RTS Warriors 1.1M = deal, he's a club pillar
* Ben Hunt Drags 1.2M = waste of money, worth half that
* DCE Manly 1.25M = good footballer, not close to 1.25M and depends whether Turbo is playing

Let's say my personal opinion is an average position to take on reported salaries, again not entirely focusing on salary value but rather relative position in the list of top-paid players. So Milford, no matter exactly what he is paid, is probably somewhere in the Top 10 of all players.

So of the Top 10 players, in my average opinion, 5-6 of those million-dollar players were, at best, an average decision, and at worst, absolutely horrendous wastes of money. Even allowing for some benefit of hindsight, for example Cowboys probably weren't to know that Morgan would break down and he was a key player for them at the time of the deal. On the other hand, Dogs knew Foran was very injury-prone.

So forget about criticising individual clubs, just consider that about 50% of million-dollar deals haven't work out, for one reason or another. And focus on the fact that these are approx $1M decisions, not moneyball type modest contracts. So clubs are required to be even more risk-adverse and more diligent in decision making when going in on deals of that size, because it's a very very significant salary cap allocation (10% give or take). You can less afford to mess it up.

And even worse, some of those deals don't just work out for the reported value, they don't work out at all, i.e. even if the player was on 3/4 or 1/2 the money it wouldn't be a good deal. Anthony Milford isn't performing at half his salary.

It's not limited to one club, though some are more represented than others in the Top 30 of mistakes. Very damning for Sharks and the QLD teams. Tigers are only represented by 2 Cleary-era signings, which is interesting - Madge has not overseen a high-value contract since he arrived, either through risk-aversion, lack of talent on market or inability to offer a big contract.

Note that the Top 2 sides (Panthers, Storm) are barely represented at all - better spread of money and talent.

I think the data from 2020 shows that the the higher the player gets paid (relative to their peers), the greater the chance of a substantially negative outcome. And not simply a dollar-value negative outcome (output per dollar), an all-points-considered negative outcome. Many of the worst performing players of the Top 30 are towards the top of the list.

Interesting that Luke Brooks isn't on here. Jurno's always seem to think he is on $850k plus whenever he isn't playing well.


Because Brooks is actually providing value on his Contract atm, one of the few.

Ash Taylor is looking for a club. On a reduced and incentive based contract for performing I think WTs and Taylor would work together well.

 

[Harvey]

Glad the club isn't panic buying .....

Happy, like most years they must be under big pressure to deliver a quality signing or a big name signing. With this season in absolute tatters and so far just a couple of doubtful signings from ESL, the marketing department will have a massive job selling merchandise and memberships for2022.

Guess that might be the reason for the renewed interest in TPJ

Hopefully Sheen delivers some superstars in his excess luggage .....

Mate I remember when I was a kid and the Tigers would sign a couple of 24 year olds from the bush that nobody had heard of and they would turn out to be quality FG footballers. These days every club has a spreadsheet and a video package on every kid from 12 to 22 who has the slightest hint of talent. Finding a diamond is near impossible.

Anyway maybe Sheens has the next Gareth Ellis lined up. You can always dream

Sheens has been finding diamonds in the rough for 30 years Wiki , Pongia ,Lomax ,Tuiaki etc etc etc etc

But we seen some signings ...I think the confidence across the entire club is at an all time low ......


With the exception of Tamou, BJ and JTJ (all were worth a crack), all of the Madge era signings have been good IMO.

Cmon most are juniors and the jury is still out


Stef, Joe O, Laurie, Doueihi, Blore, LL, are the ones that a future competitive team will be built around.

Amone, Musgrove, Kepaoa, Maumalo, IMO the jury is still out...

Tamou, BJ & JTJ we could have done out without but two of them are cheap and IMO they were worth a crack.

Honestly, the only one of those I could rate as playing consistently well is Laurie.

Joe O gets a pass as a middle forward

LL & Doueihi are massive defensive liabilities.

Stef and Blore are not getting enough game time to judge.

 

[Newtown]

No way Wighton is worth his paycheck 2021 as you listed. Bloke is playing trash

Hmm - would Tigers take him at 800K, immediate transfer? Answer is yes, so I'd say he's worth it. Current Origin player. His entire side is doing badly 2021 so it reflects badly.


You said he’s worth his pay check - wrong and idk what you’ve been watching this year

He would outperform our centres.

 

[Tiger5150]

Was only a matter of time for us to start getting desperate. The club needs a positive story.

Hopefully Hartigan doesn’t offer too much.

I can tell you, it is very hard to move him from a valuation.

I think you're correct but I also think that sort of binary approach is flawed. We could bid and be outbid for the next 20 quality players that come on the market and all it would take is for one of the other clubs to pay overs. I think it's very useful to have a process to value players coming onto the market but you also got to be prepared to stretch your valuation for the right player. I'd stretch for Finucane but probably not for TPJ.

The idea is that by sticking to your valuations you are able to pay overs when the right player come along, so you are right. The player you do pay overs for has to be a player that would fundamentally change your club though, I'm not sure either TPJ or Finucane fall into that category. That is what the club is trying to achieve.

Not many players out there that are sure fire, slam dunk , guaranteed to move the needle , that paying overs would totally be worth it. Even Kalyn Ponga could very well this time next year , be talked about like Ash Taylor.
I have no idea how you roll the dice , and who to even roll the dice on . Eg . The Adam Blair signing was hailed as really smart business at the time . Same for the Ash Taylor signing . He was considered to be the next in line for origin .
All the admin jobs/ coaching jobs to a very large extent are solely dependant on whether or not the guy you’ve hitched your career to , has the right stuff upstairs .
There’s soo much control you give away of your own existence . And it’s all dependant on what happens for 80 minutes a week .

I think it can be fairly argued that many of the top-dollar players are not worth it, so it's a very big risk to sign big-dollars, and the risk is not limited to 1 or 2 desperate or irrational clubs.

According to The Australian in July 2020, Top 30 player salaries in a list below. Even taking the salaries with a grain of salt, assuming the rough order of top-paid players is close enough to being accurate, for the purposes of discussion. Here is the list, with my opinion - and I am including the benefit of hindsight, because recruitment is not just about what is a good deal at the time, it's about a good deal long-term.

* #30 = Shaun Johnson Sharks 800K = not worth it 2020, probably better form 2021
* Jake Turbo Manly 800K = worth it 2020, a little down 2021
* Damien Cook Souths 800K = worth it 2020-21
* Wighton Raiders 800K = worth it 2020-21
* Latrell Souths 800K = worth it 2021, even more value 2021 (his salary went up however?)
* Mitch Pearce 800K Knights = not worth it 2020 or 2021, including injury
* RCG Eels 800K = worth it 20-21
* Klemmer Knights 800K = maybe ok 2020, not worth it 2021
* Cam Smith Storm 800K = steal any year
* Mbye Tigers 815K = nope
* #20 Mitch Moses Eels 830K = I think he's a mug but I can't be subjective
* Moylan Sharks 850K = abject failure both seasons
* Ponga Knights 850K = 2020 worth it, 2021 worth it if he can stay on the field
* Andrew Fifita Sharks 850K = 2020 serious risk, 2021 absolute waste of money
* Dugan Sharks 850K = 2020 not great, 2021 horrendous
* Reynolds Tigers 850K = 2020 conceptually ok but injured, 2021 wiped
* Corey Norman Dragons 850K = waste of money
* Munster Storm 850K = deal
* Turbo Manly 900K = steal
* Jack Bird Broncos 975K = injury curse, can't exactly blame the club for that though he had some history
* #10 Tedesco Roosters 1M = deal
* Taumalolo Cowboys 1M = OK for 2020, starting to show cracks in value 2021 and only 4/10 years into the deal
* Milford Broncos 1M = waste of money both years
* Michael Morgan Cowboys 1M = understandable, but broke down
* Nathan Cleary Panthers 1M = deal
* Kieran Foran Dogs 1M = abject waste of money, he had that injury history, for 1M
* Ash Taylor 1M = abject waste
* RTS Warriors 1.1M = deal, he's a club pillar
* Ben Hunt Drags 1.2M = waste of money, worth half that
* DCE Manly 1.25M = good footballer, not close to 1.25M and depends whether Turbo is playing

Let's say my personal opinion is an average position to take on reported salaries, again not entirely focusing on salary value but rather relative position in the list of top-paid players. So Milford, no matter exactly what he is paid, is probably somewhere in the Top 10 of all players.

So of the Top 10 players, in my average opinion, 5-6 of those million-dollar players were, at best, an average decision, and at worst, absolutely horrendous wastes of money. Even allowing for some benefit of hindsight, for example Cowboys probably weren't to know that Morgan would break down and he was a key player for them at the time of the deal. On the other hand, Dogs knew Foran was very injury-prone.

So forget about criticising individual clubs, just consider that about 50% of million-dollar deals haven't work out, for one reason or another. And focus on the fact that these are approx $1M decisions, not moneyball type modest contracts. So clubs are required to be even more risk-adverse and more diligent in decision making when going in on deals of that size, because it's a very very significant salary cap allocation (10% give or take). You can less afford to mess it up.

And even worse, some of those deals don't just work out for the reported value, they don't work out at all, i.e. even if the player was on 3/4 or 1/2 the money it wouldn't be a good deal. Anthony Milford isn't performing at half his salary.

It's not limited to one club, though some are more represented than others in the Top 30 of mistakes. Very damning for Sharks and the QLD teams. Tigers are only represented by 2 Cleary-era signings, which is interesting - Madge has not overseen a high-value contract since he arrived, either through risk-aversion, lack of talent on market or inability to offer a big contract.

Note that the Top 2 sides (Panthers, Storm) are barely represented at all - better spread of money and talent.

I think the data from 2020 shows that the the higher the player gets paid (relative to their peers), the greater the chance of a substantially negative outcome. And not simply a dollar-value negative outcome (output per dollar), an all-points-considered negative outcome. Many of the worst performing players of the Top 30 are towards the top of the list.

Interesting that Luke Brooks isn't on here. Jurno's always seem to think he is on $850k plus whenever he isn't playing well.


Because Brooks is actually providing value on his Contract atm, one of the few.

Ash Taylor is looking for a club. On a reduced and incentive based contract for performing I think WTs and Taylor would work together well.

Alongside Brooks or instead?

I think it would be an incredibly bold and brave move to have a Brooks Taylor combo, but it could actually be brilliant. I dont know what has happened to him. In 2018 I watched him run a masterclass when Titans pumped us at Leichhardt. He was brilliant.

EDIT: Should this move to the signings?

 

[Camel2281]

No way Wighton is worth his paycheck 2021 as you listed. Bloke is playing trash

Hmm - would Tigers take him at 800K, immediate transfer? Answer is yes, so I'd say he's worth it. Current Origin player. His entire side is doing badly 2021 so it reflects badly.


You said he’s worth his pay check - wrong and idk what you’ve been watching this year

He would outperform our centres.

He wouldn't out perform Douehi at Centre or at 6 based on 2021 form. He's been absolutely terrible

 

[Camel2281]

Was only a matter of time for us to start getting desperate. The club needs a positive story.

Hopefully Hartigan doesn’t offer too much.

I can tell you, it is very hard to move him from a valuation.

I think you're correct but I also think that sort of binary approach is flawed. We could bid and be outbid for the next 20 quality players that come on the market and all it would take is for one of the other clubs to pay overs. I think it's very useful to have a process to value players coming onto the market but you also got to be prepared to stretch your valuation for the right player. I'd stretch for Finucane but probably not for TPJ.

The idea is that by sticking to your valuations you are able to pay overs when the right player come along, so you are right. The player you do pay overs for has to be a player that would fundamentally change your club though, I'm not sure either TPJ or Finucane fall into that category. That is what the club is trying to achieve.

Not many players out there that are sure fire, slam dunk , guaranteed to move the needle , that paying overs would totally be worth it. Even Kalyn Ponga could very well this time next year , be talked about like Ash Taylor.
I have no idea how you roll the dice , and who to even roll the dice on . Eg . The Adam Blair signing was hailed as really smart business at the time . Same for the Ash Taylor signing . He was considered to be the next in line for origin .
All the admin jobs/ coaching jobs to a very large extent are solely dependant on whether or not the guy you’ve hitched your career to , has the right stuff upstairs .
There’s soo much control you give away of your own existence . And it’s all dependant on what happens for 80 minutes a week .

I think it can be fairly argued that many of the top-dollar players are not worth it, so it's a very big risk to sign big-dollars, and the risk is not limited to 1 or 2 desperate or irrational clubs.

According to The Australian in July 2020, Top 30 player salaries in a list below. Even taking the salaries with a grain of salt, assuming the rough order of top-paid players is close enough to being accurate, for the purposes of discussion. Here is the list, with my opinion - and I am including the benefit of hindsight, because recruitment is not just about what is a good deal at the time, it's about a good deal long-term.

* #30 = Shaun Johnson Sharks 800K = not worth it 2020, probably better form 2021
* Jake Turbo Manly 800K = worth it 2020, a little down 2021
* Damien Cook Souths 800K = worth it 2020-21
* Wighton Raiders 800K = worth it 2020-21
* Latrell Souths 800K = worth it 2021, even more value 2021 (his salary went up however?)
* Mitch Pearce 800K Knights = not worth it 2020 or 2021, including injury
* RCG Eels 800K = worth it 20-21
* Klemmer Knights 800K = maybe ok 2020, not worth it 2021
* Cam Smith Storm 800K = steal any year
* Mbye Tigers 815K = nope
* #20 Mitch Moses Eels 830K = I think he's a mug but I can't be subjective
* Moylan Sharks 850K = abject failure both seasons
* Ponga Knights 850K = 2020 worth it, 2021 worth it if he can stay on the field
* Andrew Fifita Sharks 850K = 2020 serious risk, 2021 absolute waste of money
* Dugan Sharks 850K = 2020 not great, 2021 horrendous
* Reynolds Tigers 850K = 2020 conceptually ok but injured, 2021 wiped
* Corey Norman Dragons 850K = waste of money
* Munster Storm 850K = deal
* Turbo Manly 900K = steal
* Jack Bird Broncos 975K = injury curse, can't exactly blame the club for that though he had some history
* #10 Tedesco Roosters 1M = deal
* Taumalolo Cowboys 1M = OK for 2020, starting to show cracks in value 2021 and only 4/10 years into the deal
* Milford Broncos 1M = waste of money both years
* Michael Morgan Cowboys 1M = understandable, but broke down
* Nathan Cleary Panthers 1M = deal
* Kieran Foran Dogs 1M = abject waste of money, he had that injury history, for 1M
* Ash Taylor 1M = abject waste
* RTS Warriors 1.1M = deal, he's a club pillar
* Ben Hunt Drags 1.2M = waste of money, worth half that
* DCE Manly 1.25M = good footballer, not close to 1.25M and depends whether Turbo is playing

Let's say my personal opinion is an average position to take on reported salaries, again not entirely focusing on salary value but rather relative position in the list of top-paid players. So Milford, no matter exactly what he is paid, is probably somewhere in the Top 10 of all players.

So of the Top 10 players, in my average opinion, 5-6 of those million-dollar players were, at best, an average decision, and at worst, absolutely horrendous wastes of money. Even allowing for some benefit of hindsight, for example Cowboys probably weren't to know that Morgan would break down and he was a key player for them at the time of the deal. On the other hand, Dogs knew Foran was very injury-prone.

So forget about criticising individual clubs, just consider that about 50% of million-dollar deals haven't work out, for one reason or another. And focus on the fact that these are approx $1M decisions, not moneyball type modest contracts. So clubs are required to be even more risk-adverse and more diligent in decision making when going in on deals of that size, because it's a very very significant salary cap allocation (10% give or take). You can less afford to mess it up.

And even worse, some of those deals don't just work out for the reported value, they don't work out at all, i.e. even if the player was on 3/4 or 1/2 the money it wouldn't be a good deal. Anthony Milford isn't performing at half his salary.

It's not limited to one club, though some are more represented than others in the Top 30 of mistakes. Very damning for Sharks and the QLD teams. Tigers are only represented by 2 Cleary-era signings, which is interesting - Madge has not overseen a high-value contract since he arrived, either through risk-aversion, lack of talent on market or inability to offer a big contract.

Note that the Top 2 sides (Panthers, Storm) are barely represented at all - better spread of money and talent.

I think the data from 2020 shows that the the higher the player gets paid (relative to their peers), the greater the chance of a substantially negative outcome. And not simply a dollar-value negative outcome (output per dollar), an all-points-considered negative outcome. Many of the worst performing players of the Top 30 are towards the top of the list.

Interesting that Luke Brooks isn't on here. Jurno's always seem to think he is on $850k plus whenever he isn't playing well.


Because Brooks is actually providing value on his Contract atm, one of the few.

Ash Taylor is looking for a club. On a reduced and incentive based contract for performing I think WTs and Taylor would work together well.

He can't be worse than having M'Bye in the halves. If you got Taylor for say 250k then I think it'd be worth the gamble