jirskyr
Well-known member
I watched both of the Panthers games last two weeks and was having a think about how they are travelling, vs how we are travelling.
The similarities of comparison interest me a lot:
- Both teams won the comp unexpectedly in the mid 2000s and have struggled to reach those same heights.
- Both teams recently had experienced coaches (formerly from Canberra), who had a good 2010 and could not go on with it, getting sacked.
- Panthers started the rebuild in 2012\. Tigers started in 2013, however we pulled the plug on that one and started a new re-rebuild in 2015.
- Panthers signed a well-respected coach with a modest amount of experience for the re-build. We have signed two well-respected players who could potentially be good coaches, then gave one the chop after 2 years.
- Panthers put a major media personality and former coach in as General Manager (or whatever Gould's title is). We pinched their Operations Manager Moss this year.
- Panthers always produce promising talent. Their talent is currently focussed in the backs, with some real young stars, but as a whole I'd say their talent pool hasn't really stepped up to the next level. Blokes like Waqa Blake, DWZ, Isaah Yeo, Cartwright, Peachey, G Jennings… they look likely enough, but not consistent yet for me. Tigers are in a similar position, though we are more halves-focussed, and at least one of our young players has reached elite-level representatives (Woods).
- Both teams have exciting young fullbacks.
- Both teams have quality rakes. I think Segeyaro is one of the most under-rated hookers in the game.
- Panthers have old experienced heads in the halves, ours are novices.
- Panthers had a fairly brutal clean-out of their old favourites, as part of the re-build: Lewis, Coote, Gordon, Jennings, Walsh. We did the same. I would argue Penrith's discards are actually doing better at their new clubs than our discards are (i.e. they discarded better talent than we did).
- Both teams invested heavily in signings that seemed positive, but did not work out - Idris vs Blair.
- Both teams didn't quite know what to do with Blake Austin, BMM or Dane Laurie.
- Last 10 years, Panthers have finished the season: 10th, 12th, 16th, 12th, 11th, 2nd, 12th, 15th, 10th, 4th. That is 2 finals in 10 years and an average position of 10.4th. Tigers finished: 1st, 11th, 9th, 10th, 9th, 3rd, 4th, 10th, 15th, 13th - 3 finals in 10 years, an average place of 8.5th. If you take it back to 2000, the average position is almost identical: Penrith 9.3th vs Tigers 9.5th.
- Panthers currently have 5 wins / 7 losses / FA -30\. Tigers are 4 / 8 / -31.
- Both teams 2015 have recorded wins over Bulldogs and Titans, but lost to Roosters, Cowboys, Knights in consecutive weeks. Penrith have otherwise beaten Sharks and Manly twice, aka 13th and 16th place, neither of whom we have played. We beat Eels, who accounted for Panthers last week. Both teams beat Titans early, only to lose to them several rounds later.
- Both teams have been hurt by injuries to key positions in recent weeks.
- Both teams have been held to 0 once in the last two rounds.
- Both teams spent a lot of time in the opposition 20 last two weeks, but struggled for consistent threatening attack.
So boiling all this down, which side is travelling better? Sure, Panthers made the finals last year and that counts for the most, and I previously had the opinion that their 2015 has not been too bad. But I watched their last 2 weeks closely and have been quite unimpressed by their form.
Tigers are by all accounts doing poorly, but we haven't played Manly even once, let alone twice, and otherwise our results are fairly consistent with the Panthers.
I can imagine people making excuses for the Panthers, or making an argument that they are heading in the right direction and we are not. But the above analysis tells me that really is not the case. Certainly, I am more emotionally involved in, and pick at the details of, our form, but I cannot mount an argument that Panthers are doing better than us. I also cannot mount an argument that they are more likely to succeed than Tigers, that their juniors will come good and ours won't.
Should the Panthers hook their coach? Is he responsible for the ordinary results, is their game plan muck? Do you think they have an arguably better side than us?
It interests me because we are supposedly 2 years or so behind Penrith in our rebuild, and yet I am not convinced they are on their way to continued success.
The similarities of comparison interest me a lot:
- Both teams won the comp unexpectedly in the mid 2000s and have struggled to reach those same heights.
- Both teams recently had experienced coaches (formerly from Canberra), who had a good 2010 and could not go on with it, getting sacked.
- Panthers started the rebuild in 2012\. Tigers started in 2013, however we pulled the plug on that one and started a new re-rebuild in 2015.
- Panthers signed a well-respected coach with a modest amount of experience for the re-build. We have signed two well-respected players who could potentially be good coaches, then gave one the chop after 2 years.
- Panthers put a major media personality and former coach in as General Manager (or whatever Gould's title is). We pinched their Operations Manager Moss this year.
- Panthers always produce promising talent. Their talent is currently focussed in the backs, with some real young stars, but as a whole I'd say their talent pool hasn't really stepped up to the next level. Blokes like Waqa Blake, DWZ, Isaah Yeo, Cartwright, Peachey, G Jennings… they look likely enough, but not consistent yet for me. Tigers are in a similar position, though we are more halves-focussed, and at least one of our young players has reached elite-level representatives (Woods).
- Both teams have exciting young fullbacks.
- Both teams have quality rakes. I think Segeyaro is one of the most under-rated hookers in the game.
- Panthers have old experienced heads in the halves, ours are novices.
- Panthers had a fairly brutal clean-out of their old favourites, as part of the re-build: Lewis, Coote, Gordon, Jennings, Walsh. We did the same. I would argue Penrith's discards are actually doing better at their new clubs than our discards are (i.e. they discarded better talent than we did).
- Both teams invested heavily in signings that seemed positive, but did not work out - Idris vs Blair.
- Both teams didn't quite know what to do with Blake Austin, BMM or Dane Laurie.
- Last 10 years, Panthers have finished the season: 10th, 12th, 16th, 12th, 11th, 2nd, 12th, 15th, 10th, 4th. That is 2 finals in 10 years and an average position of 10.4th. Tigers finished: 1st, 11th, 9th, 10th, 9th, 3rd, 4th, 10th, 15th, 13th - 3 finals in 10 years, an average place of 8.5th. If you take it back to 2000, the average position is almost identical: Penrith 9.3th vs Tigers 9.5th.
- Panthers currently have 5 wins / 7 losses / FA -30\. Tigers are 4 / 8 / -31.
- Both teams 2015 have recorded wins over Bulldogs and Titans, but lost to Roosters, Cowboys, Knights in consecutive weeks. Penrith have otherwise beaten Sharks and Manly twice, aka 13th and 16th place, neither of whom we have played. We beat Eels, who accounted for Panthers last week. Both teams beat Titans early, only to lose to them several rounds later.
- Both teams have been hurt by injuries to key positions in recent weeks.
- Both teams have been held to 0 once in the last two rounds.
- Both teams spent a lot of time in the opposition 20 last two weeks, but struggled for consistent threatening attack.
So boiling all this down, which side is travelling better? Sure, Panthers made the finals last year and that counts for the most, and I previously had the opinion that their 2015 has not been too bad. But I watched their last 2 weeks closely and have been quite unimpressed by their form.
Tigers are by all accounts doing poorly, but we haven't played Manly even once, let alone twice, and otherwise our results are fairly consistent with the Panthers.
I can imagine people making excuses for the Panthers, or making an argument that they are heading in the right direction and we are not. But the above analysis tells me that really is not the case. Certainly, I am more emotionally involved in, and pick at the details of, our form, but I cannot mount an argument that Panthers are doing better than us. I also cannot mount an argument that they are more likely to succeed than Tigers, that their juniors will come good and ours won't.
Should the Panthers hook their coach? Is he responsible for the ordinary results, is their game plan muck? Do you think they have an arguably better side than us?
It interests me because we are supposedly 2 years or so behind Penrith in our rebuild, and yet I am not convinced they are on their way to continued success.
