Warriors Team

[sheer64]

We should sign Katoa

Hell YES!!! He is a gun.

 

[Geo]

Even Jacinta hates the Wobblers..

 

[GNR4LIFE]

Geez they are there for the hammering this week. Load up on us.

 

[sheer64]

Even Jacinta hates the Wobblers..

She hates everyone equally.

 

[Needaname]

Tigers typically dont do well with these games....

Payton would just be licking his lips, considering his odds..

 

[Fade.To.Black]

Hopefully our players don't show the same contempt that a few on here are showing towards the Warriors or else we will be in for a rude shock.
We should win and hopefully win well but these sort of games are more worrying than squaring off against the gun teams IMO.

 

[Adam Doobie]

Man...don't even worry guys. Banana skin games are a thing of the past. We will smash them.

 

[Fade.To.Black]

Man...don't even worry guys. Banana skin games are a thing of the past. We will smash them.

You mean games like the Titans one earlier this year?
Hope you're right.

 

[jirskyr]

Tigers typically dont do well with these games....

Not true, Tigers have a good winning record when favourites (~67%), as all teams actually do. Bookies don't get that part wrong very often.

Even just this year we are 4 W 2 L against teams below us on the current ladder, which is 67% win rate.

 

[jirskyr]

Jacinta

Jacinda

 

[twentyforty]

Tigers typically dont do well with these games....

Not true, Tigers have a good winning record when favourites (~67%), as all teams actually do. Bookies don't get that part wrong very often.

Even just this year we are 4 W 2 L against teams below us on the current ladder, which is 67% win rate.

Either way, this will be a big test for the Tigers. I expect them to get on top early and go on with the job for the full 80. Anything less will be an indication that we struggle at the sharp end of the season.
I like the way players are playing to Madge’s expectations. Now this is a game for them to reach deeper. There are still one or two players on healthy contracts who could do more.

 

[JD Tiger]

Tigers typically dont do well with these games....

Not true, Tigers have a good winning record when favourites (~67%), as all teams actually do. Bookies don't get that part wrong very often.

Even just this year we are 4 W 2 L against teams below us on the current ladder, which is 67% win rate.

I wouldn't necessarily say 4/6 wins vs teams below us is good. I certainly wouldn't say it's good enough.
It's all subjective though. And I doubt many teams close to our level are much better.

 

[jirskyr]

Tigers typically dont do well with these games....

Not true, Tigers have a good winning record when favourites (~67%), as all teams actually do. Bookies don't get that part wrong very often.

Even just this year we are 4 W 2 L against teams below us on the current ladder, which is 67% win rate.

I wouldn't necessarily say 4/6 wins vs teams below us is good. I certainly wouldn't say it's good enough.
It's all subjective though. And I doubt many teams close to our level are much better.

I agree 4/6 isn't great, but it is consistent with our win rate when we are favourites. Just trying to dispel this myth that Tigers lose must-win or should-win games, because with statistical significance we normally win. Just folks remember the losses.

re sides around us on the table, no they aren't much better, though I would say for 2020 there are more "easybeats" than there have been in other seasons.

For 2019 the bottom 4 sites managed 30 total wins (24 rounds), 2018 29 wins, 2017 26 wins, 2016 24 wins, 2015 34 wins, 2014 32 wins, 2013 29 wins. All 24-round seasons, average wins for bottom-4 sides in this period is **29.14 wins**.

2016 is an anomaly because Parra were in the bottom 4 due to salary cap penalties but won 13 games, so I took them out of the equation, and Knights only won 1 game all season, which is very rare and heavily impacts the total matches for the bottom sides (most wooden-spoon teams win 5-6 matches).

2020 after 11 rounds the bottom 4 sides have 11 total wins, if you extrapolate this to the end of year and account for the 4 lost rounds due to COVID, the bottom 4 are on track for 25 total wins, so well below average thus far.

 

[Red88_Tiger]

Tigers typically dont do well with these games....

Not true, Tigers have a good winning record when favourites (~67%), as all teams actually do. Bookies don't get that part wrong very often.

Even just this year we are 4 W 2 L against teams below us on the current ladder, which is 67% win rate.

I understand that stat but that includes when we are favourites by a small margin. Think he is referring to when we are galloping favourites

 

[Cultured_Bogan]

I think we've seen enough since the Titans debacle to suggest we have turned a corner and are always up for the 80 minutes. Hopefully we finish the game with a full bench this week.

 

[Geo]

Jacinta

Jacinda

Her too..

 

[Spartan117]

ven just this year we are 4 W 2 L against teams below us on the current ladder, which is 67% win rate.

Im thinking Titans game earlier in the year...

 

[jirskyr]

Tigers typically dont do well with these games....

Not true, Tigers have a good winning record when favourites (~67%), as all teams actually do. Bookies don't get that part wrong very often.

Even just this year we are 4 W 2 L against teams below us on the current ladder, which is 67% win rate.

I understand that stat but that includes when we are favourites by a small margin. Think he is referring to when we are galloping favourites

I guarantee you that the bigger the margin or pre-game favouritism the better our win rate. I guarantee it. I haven't got the time just now to look it up but I guarantee it's true.

People just have to remember, without even doing the research yourself, the bookies know exactly what they are doing with odds over time. Individual games you can get them, but for all matches over time, they have big teams and computers crunching the numbers. So when Tigers are slightly favourited or very very heavily favourited (by whatever margin you wish to define that), the actual results over time react accordingly.

If what you referred to is true, that we often lose when we are galloping favourites, then by logic the bookies would never install us as galloping favourites, because we lose so reliably. It make no sense to offer top odds against a team that's likely to lose, because they can't "handle the psychology of being favourites". By that same logic, there would actually be a drop-off for Tigers probabilities, where Tigers become such strong favourites that actually it flips and we start being outsiders.

It's similar to the mentality I hear a lot "oh I get nervous when we are too far in front". As if it's preferable to only be slightly in front. Again, guaranteed: the positive win outcomes from big leads during matches would be far above those for small leads during matches. There was some stat I ran a few years ago, for Tigers, that if we scored more than 22 points in a game (regardless of margin) we were something like 85% chance of winning.

 

[jirskyr]

ven just this year we are 4 W 2 L against teams below us on the current ladder, which is 67% win rate.



Im thinking Titans game earlier in the year...

What of it?

 

[GNR4LIFE]

ven just this year we are 4 W 2 L against teams below us on the current ladder, which is 67% win rate.



Im thinking Titans game earlier in the year...

What of it?

I think I know where this is going