Wests Tigers Draw - 2017

[supercoach]

If Maloney gets injured, what are the chances of Moses getting the call up for origin?

None I would say - hope so anyway, I would think Moylan and Bird (they eventually will fade in comparison) would both be in front of him at this stage.

As it should be - he needs more experience, nothing to be gained by rushing him in, doesn't perform too well and then shaft him into oblivion.

When he makes it, in my opinion he is going to be there for a Looooong time!

I agree, but he also strikes me as a kid who the higher you set the bar the higher he jumps. Also got the feeling he has plenty of people in his corner who have some say when it comes to the Blues. Realistically he still two years away, but with the blues being perennial losers you never know

 

[jirskyr]

Bit of analysis - I think it's 4 Fridays, 3 Sats, 10 Sundays, 1 Monday in that draw so far? No 5D turnarounds and 3 x 9D ones.

All-time day stats, Tigers are :
32/84 on Fri = 38.10%
51/129 on Sat = 39.53%
85/170 on Sun = 50.00%
16/34 on Mon = 47.06%
185/421 all time = 43.94%

So we clearly have a better strike rate on Sundays. There are likely multiple reasons for this - we tend to perform better in day games, I would expect a large number of our Sunday matches are "traditional home" games, opponents are generally weaker on Sundays.

We do worst on Fridays, but this makes sense - they are the top billing, so you normally get the harder sides, and you often face the Friday-night darlings like Broncos.

So the 2016 draw is positive in terms of a heavy leaning towards our traditionally strongest footballing day.

All-time turnaround stats, Tigers are:
20/53 with 5 days TA = 37.74%
34/81 with 6 = 41.98%
43/100 with 7 = 43.00%
40/93 with 8 = 43.01%
16/29 with 9 = 55.17%
4/8 with 10 = 50.00%
0/2 with 11 = 0.00%
1/3 with 12 = 33.33%
2/11 with 13 = 18.18%
5/10 with 14 = 50.00%
7/8 with 15 = 87.50%
3/4 with 16 = 75.00%

I believe NRL has reduced the 5-day turnarounds for all clubs, and clearly for us this is a good thing.

One thing I really notice is that with a normal 1-week gap between matches, we sit right on our usual win rate 43.94%. However push it up just slightly to 9 or 10 days and that win rate jumps substantially. So the 9-day TAs next year are great.

You have to take this with a little grain of salt of course, because there are far fewer matches played on extended turnaround, e.g. you couldn't really say 11 days is a bad length for us, we've only had two games under such conditions.

But generally speaking, we do consistently worse on 5 days TA, equivalently average on 6-8 days, very well on 9 days (29 games being a decent sample size) and same again on 10 days. Between 11-12 days break there aren't many games, but interestingly with a 13-day TA the results are very poor - this is probably due to such games falling on a Friday, our traditionally worst day. Given the full 2 weeks or more break, our results are back up to being good.

 

[Tiger4life]

Bit of analysis - I think it's 4 Fridays, 3 Sats, 10 Sundays, 1 Monday in that draw so far? No 5D turnarounds and 3 x 9D ones.

All-time day stats, Tigers are :
32/84 on Fri = 38.10%
51/129 on Sat = 39.53%
85/170 on Sun = 50.00%
16/34 on Mon = 47.06%
185/421 all time = 43.94%

So we clearly have a better strike rate on Sundays. There are likely multiple reasons for this - we tend to perform better in day games, I would expect a large number of our Sunday matches are "traditional home" games, opponents are generally weaker on Sundays.

We do worst on Fridays, but this makes sense - they are the top billing, so you normally get the harder sides, and you often face the Friday-night darlings like Broncos.

So the 2016 draw is positive in terms of a heavy leaning towards our traditionally strongest footballing day.

All-time turnaround stats, Tigers are:
20/53 with 5 days TA = 37.74%
34/81 with 6 = 41.98%
43/100 with 7 = 43.00%
40/93 with 8 = 43.01%
16/29 with 9 = 55.17%
4/8 with 10 = 50.00%
0/2 with 11 = 0.00%
1/3 with 12 = 33.33%
2/11 with 13 = 18.18%
5/10 with 14 = 50.00%
7/8 with 15 = 87.50%
3/4 with 16 = 75.00%

I believe NRL has reduced the 5-day turnarounds for all clubs, and clearly for us this is a good thing.

One thing I really notice is that with a normal 1-week gap between matches, we sit right on our usual win rate 43.94%. However push it up just slightly to 9 or 10 days and that win rate jumps substantially. So the 9-day TAs next year are great.

You have to take this with a little grain of salt of course, because there are far fewer matches played on extended turnaround, e.g. you couldn't really say 11 days is a bad length for us, we've only had two games under such conditions.

But generally speaking, we do consistently worse on 5 days TA, equivalently average on 6-8 days, very well on 9 days (29 games being a decent sample size) and same again on 10 days. Between 11-12 days break there aren't many games, but interestingly with a 13-day TA the results are very poor - this is probably due to such games falling on a Friday, our traditionally worst day. Given the full 2 weeks or more break, our results are back up to being good.

Great analysis, thanks. Sunday arvo definitely suits TIGERS style of throwing the footy around.

 

[innsaneink]

Full on!

 

[NT_Tiger]

Bit of analysis - ….......One thing I really notice is that with a normal 1-week gap between matches, we sit right on our usual win rate 43.94%. However push it up just slightly to 9 or 10 days and that win rate jumps substantially. So the 9-day TAs next year are great.

You have to take this with a little grain of salt of course, because there are far fewer matches played on extended turnaround, e.g. you couldn't really say 11 days is a bad length for us, we've only had two games under such conditions.

But generally speaking, we do consistently worse on 5 days TA, equivalently average on 6-8 days, very well on 9 days (29 games being a decent sample size) and same again on 10 days. Between 11-12 days break there aren't many games, but interestingly with a 13-day TA the results are very poor - this is probably due to such games falling on a Friday, our traditionally worst day. Given the full 2 weeks or more break, our results are back up to being good.

Given the consensus is that our pack has a hard time backing up each week, the longer turn arounds should really benefit us. It will be interesting to see.
Thanks for the analysis.

 

[happy_tiger]

Bit of analysis - I think it's 4 Fridays, 3 Sats, 10 Sundays, 1 Monday in that draw so far? No 5D turnarounds and 3 x 9D ones.

All-time day stats, Tigers are :
32/84 on Fri = 38.10%
51/129 on Sat = 39.53%
85/170 on Sun = 50.00%
16/34 on Mon = 47.06%
185/421 all time = 43.94%

So we clearly have a better strike rate on Sundays. There are likely multiple reasons for this - we tend to perform better in day games, I would expect a large number of our Sunday matches are "traditional home" games, opponents are generally weaker on Sundays.

We do worst on Fridays, but this makes sense - they are the top billing, so you normally get the harder sides, and you often face the Friday-night darlings like Broncos.

So the 2016 draw is positive in terms of a heavy leaning towards our traditionally strongest footballing day.

All-time turnaround stats, Tigers are:
20/53 with 5 days TA = 37.74%
34/81 with 6 = 41.98%
43/100 with 7 = 43.00%
40/93 with 8 = 43.01%
16/29 with 9 = 55.17%
4/8 with 10 = 50.00%
0/2 with 11 = 0.00%
1/3 with 12 = 33.33%
2/11 with 13 = 18.18%
5/10 with 14 = 50.00%
7/8 with 15 = 87.50%
3/4 with 16 = 75.00%

I believe NRL has reduced the 5-day turnarounds for all clubs, and clearly for us this is a good thing.

One thing I really notice is that with a normal 1-week gap between matches, we sit right on our usual win rate 43.94%. However push it up just slightly to 9 or 10 days and that win rate jumps substantially. So the 9-day TAs next year are great.

You have to take this with a little grain of salt of course, because there are far fewer matches played on extended turnaround, e.g. you couldn't really say 11 days is a bad length for us, we've only had two games under such conditions.

But generally speaking, we do consistently worse on 5 days TA, equivalently average on 6-8 days, very well on 9 days (29 games being a decent sample size) and same again on 10 days. Between 11-12 days break there aren't many games, but interestingly with a 13-day TA the results are very poor - this is probably due to such games falling on a Friday, our traditionally worst day. Given the full 2 weeks or more break, our results are back up to being good.

We never seem to play well after the bye , which would link to the 13 day break

Yeah we are that bad on Friday's , didn't surprise me

 

[supercoach]

A lot of work must have gone into those stats and what it shows to me that we simply do not win enough!!!

 

[WestsBenTigers]

Do we play bad on Fridays nights due to the conditions or bad against Friday opponents?

 

[happy_tiger]

A lot of work must have gone into those stats and what it shows to me that we simply do not win enough!!!

Yeah a 50+% season would be nice for a change

 

[goldcoast_tiger]

damn, we better be FAST out of the gates.

play like the seasons on the line, because it will likely be decided in the first 8 weeks. we cant afford to be anything less than 3-5 which isnt easy:

Rabbitohs, Panthers, Raiders, Storm, Dragons, Cowboys, Eels, Bulldogs

we can beat souths, dragons and then maybe 1 of the other teams.

i think we play brisbane during origin again though so thats nice

I think that you are closer to the truth,
0f our first 11 games , the Dragons is the only game that I'd be game to back us to win.

I'd be worrying about all the rest.
If we start at our top we could be pretty happy at the end of round 11.

If we don't, our season could be over by round 12

 

[pHyR3]

damn, we better be FAST out of the gates.

play like the seasons on the line, because it will likely be decided in the first 8 weeks. we cant afford to be anything less than 3-5 which isnt easy:

Rabbitohs, Panthers, Raiders, Storm, Dragons, Cowboys, Eels, Bulldogs

we can beat souths, dragons and then maybe 1 of the other teams.

i think we play brisbane during origin again though so thats nice

I think that you are closer to the truth,
0f our first 11 games , the Dragons is the only game that I'd be game to back us to win.

I'd be worrying about all the rest.
If we start at our top we could be pretty happy at the end of round 11.

If we don't, our season could be over by round 12

yup definitely, with injuries in our favour and no surprise origin selections i would back us to go on a nice little run (like 60-65% win rate) from round 9 until end of origin period.

our schedule eases up a lot then, and gets harder in the back end. so need to pick up a few wins early, a lot during origin and we should be okay. touch wood

 

[Nelson]

damn, we better be FAST out of the gates.

play like the seasons on the line, because it will likely be decided in the first 8 weeks. we cant afford to be anything less than 3-5 which isnt easy:

Rabbitohs, Panthers, Raiders, Storm, Dragons, Cowboys, Eels, Bulldogs

we can beat souths, dragons and then maybe 1 of the other teams.

i think we play brisbane during origin again though so thats nice

I reckon we can beat all of those teams. We should beat souths, dragons, eels & bulldogs. Panthers at Campbelltown & Storm at Leichhardt too. Would be happy with at least 4-4

Agree that the first couple of months are crucial. Our start this year killed us. 2-8 after 10 rounds… :/

eels and storm?? doubtful unless they drop off from last year (ignoring eels' points strip and decimation by injury)

I meant that playing storm at Leichhardt gives us a better chance than playing them in Melbourne

And yeah reckon Eels will be worse off next year without Foran, Gordon, Paulo (I know he left mid season but played when they beat us), possibly Semi

They have some weak spots but they have a dangerous pack with plenty of running impact and some try scoring backs in French and Semi. I've heard Arthur wants to run an 80 minute hooker this season so they'll probably start out with something like:

1\. Bevan French
2\. Semi Radradra
3\. Brad Takairangi
4\. Michael Jennings
5\. Josh Hoffman
6\. Clint Gutherson
7\. Corey Norman
8\. Tim Mannah
9\. Isaac De Gois
10\. Nathan Brown
11\. Manu Ma'u
12\. Beau Scott
13\. Tepai Moeroa

14\. Siosaia Vave
15\. Suaia Matagi
16\. Kenny Edwards
17\. Peni Terepo / David Gower

If they get a few injuries they're a little light on depth in the forwards with Wicks and Paulo both gone. There will also be a lot of pressure on Corey Norman to perform.

 

[Geo]

Game at a time…

 

[jirskyr]

A lot of work must have gone into those stats and what it shows to me that we simply do not win enough!!!

Not really, I set up the stats some time ago to help with betting. Now I all I do is paste in the results and it updates automatically.

But no 43% is not enough winning.

 

[happy_tiger]

Game at a time…

What sort of garbage logic is that ??

Next thing you'll muttering on about completion rates , low penalty counts and keeping the missed tackle count under 15

 

[WestsBenTigers]

If 43% is a bad winning rate, would any of you guys happen to know all 16 clubs winning rate.

Thx WBT

 

[Masterton]

If 43% is a bad winning rate, would any of you guys happen to know all 16 clubs winning rate.

Thx WBT

here you go

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NRL_records#Team_wins.2C_losses_and_draws

 

[will1999]

any chance of making the top 8 this year

 

[Tim Sheens]

any chance of making the top 8 this year

Welcome to the forum Will.

Assuming that you were asking a question? Can't make it this year, but a better than average shot in 2017 and finishing the regular season fourth to sixth for mine.

 

[pHyR3]

If 43% is a bad winning rate, would any of you guys happen to know all 16 clubs winning rate.

Thx WBT

here you go

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NRL_records#Team_wins.2C_losses_and_draws

given the bottom 10 clubs dont exist any longer,

19th/32 clubs doesn't look too great….