Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Tiger5150]

From my perspective from a purely military and political point of view Putin is winning the war.

I mean look at the narrative the west has gone with, that is talking about the brave Ukrainian fighters focused on the tragic humanitarian situation, sounds like a "moral victory " and we all know how useful they are. Powerful entities don't focus on these too much almost sounds like their apology to the Ukrainian people after being promised support but left in the lurch.

The Ukrainian military positions seem unsound and unsustainable .

Invaded along 3 different axis along what is at a guess probably a 2000km front nowhere do they hold a continuous front, they've lost or losing all access to the sea and while the Dneiper would make an excellent defense line sadly the Russians are advancing along both banks of the river from north and south. Where can they possibly rally? I was hoping they would hold the western cities but now those are being surrounded. Right now with their mobilisation they would easily outnumber the Russians in manpower but not in firepower but they do have some access to Soviet heavy weaponry. So 1 week in and they are facing collapse a nation of 44 million probably half the land mass of Australia and Putin has only applied a relatively small force and only used less than 10% of his air power. Hard to see them holding out for more than a month. Trapped in the cities the Russians can cut phone, power and water.

So their hope lies in an i insurgency. Trouble is insurgents historically have little success in the steppes. There's nowhere to hide, except the cities, and it looks like they are entering that phase now.

and then............?

Putin will have a pyrric victory, holding citys that are barely more than rubble with armed geurilla factions picking off Russians continually, with the west maintaining sanctions. It will be a 10year guerilla war a la Chechnya.

 

[innsaneink]

By the end of this year all currency will be Gold ,Silver and precious metal backed...the fiat system was introduced for the criminal polititions and their mates...
stay strong Magpie...

In january you said ''a few weeks'' about the same rubbish

Keep moving the goalposts

 

[Nelson]

From my perspective from a purely military and political point of view Putin is winning the war.

I mean look at the narrative the west has gone with, that is talking about the brave Ukrainian fighters focused on the tragic humanitarian situation, sounds like a "moral victory " and we all know how useful they are. Powerful entities don't focus on these too much almost sounds like their apology to the Ukrainian people after being promised support but left in the lurch.

It's not a bloody narrative, it's a perspective. They have focused on the tragic humanitarian situation because that's what it is: civilians are dying and fleeing their homeland in large numbers. They have focused on brave Ukrainian fighters because that's what they are: people taking up arms to defend their homeland from aggressors with superior arms that are invading for...what? The reasons for bombing the crap out of civilian cities seem pretty opaque and ring pretty hollow to most people. You might think it's all a very clever military and political ploy but most don't see it that way, they see it as a senseless invasion. Most aren't interested in seeing cheerleading for warmongers.
No doubt the Russians will crush them at some point because it's pretty clear that the Ukrainians will not receive international military assistance, but whether the "war" ultimately ends quickly or favourably for Russia will not be apparent for a long time. The sanctions won't just end because Russia achieves some notional "victory", they have ostracised themselves from a significant portion of the international community and it will have ramifications for many years to come. You seem to have read sufficient Russian propaganda as to have convinced yourself that they will be perfectly capable of insulating themselves against international blowback - I don't pretend to know but I find that a highly questionable proposition.

 

[Tiger5150]

It's not a bloody narrative, it's a perspective. They have focused on the tragic humanitarian situation because that's what it is: civilians are dying and fleeing their homeland in large numbers. They have focused on brave Ukrainian fighters because that's what they are: people taking up arms to defend their homeland from aggressors with superior arms that are invading for...what? The reasons for bombing the crap out of civilian cities seem pretty opaque and ring pretty hollow to most people. You might think it's all a very clever military and political ploy but most don't see it that way, they see it as a senseless invasion. Most aren't interested in seeing cheerleading for warmongers.
No doubt the Russians will crush them at some point because it's pretty clear that the Ukrainians will not receive international military assistance, but whether the "war" ultimately ends quickly or favourably for Russia will not be apparent for a long time. The sanctions won't just end because Russia achieves some notional "victory", they have ostracised themselves from a significant portion of the international community and it will have ramifications for many years to come. You seem to have read sufficient Russian propaganda as to have convinced yourself that they will be perfectly capable of insulating themselves against international blowback - I don't pretend to know but I find that a highly questionable proposition.

Well said

 

[Tiger5150]

My feeling us Zelenskyy aside from becoming a national hero is being groomed as a prime minister under Putin's direction

If the Russians get their hands on Zelensky, they will kill him.

 

[Kaito]

We're arming Saudi Arabia and UAE to bomb Yemen right now. Not a bow peep from you and your buddies..

 

[clokan]

Good to see your back.

Don't think it will work that way. The guerillas won't last long in the cities without supply, urban guerrillas historically don't do well. That can change however. But we are entering that phase now and that's why l suspect the Russians aren't in a hurry to move in on Kiev, probably because they want to utterly demoralise their enemy.

My feeling us Zelenskyy aside from becoming a national hero is being groomed as a prime minister under Putin's direction and would be acceptable to the west because they could frame the defeat as less so because their man is still in power. He probably would be a willing servant of Putin and may crack down hard on insurgents himself in the national interest so as not to destroy the country. Also aside from perhaps a division in Kiev and another holding the southern ports with a small AA contingent he can withdraw and recruit a "police " contingent from brutalised populations in the east where the fighting has benn till now. Aliong with Chechnyans they would do the "policing". Most have scores to settle. If Zelenskyy goes the Ukrainians have no standout which is a problem for all sides and if so Putin may partition the country.

I believe it is very unlikely that Zelenskyy will side with Putin

 

[PJ_]

We're arming Saudi Arabia and UAE to bomb Yemen right now. Not a bow peep from you and your buddies..

O you who have believed, whoever of you should revert from his religion - Allah will bring forth [in place of them] a people He will love and who will love Him [who are] humble toward the believers, powerful against the disbelievers; they strive in the cause of Allah and do not fear the blame of a critic. That is the favor of Allah ; He bestows it upon whom He wills. And Allah is all-Encompassing and Knowing.

 

[PJ_]

Special place Yemen

 

[PJ_]

Lots of troubles in the middle east but it's not as fashionable I guess.

 

[Kaito]

Al humdullilah

 

[Kaito]

Lots of troubles in the middle east but it's not as fashionable I guess.

Always trouble in the Middle East, very little room 4 western intervention these days 😀

 

[Tim Sheens]

We're arming Saudi Arabia and UAE to bomb Yemen right now. Not a bow peep from you and your buddies..

Not what I would call "buddies" with anyone here and likely disagree more often than finding common ground, still, have addressed our being complicit in harming Yemen and elsewhere early in this thread.

 

[earl]

Lots of troubles in the middle east but it's not as fashionable I guess.

Have you seen that region's history. If there aren't massive problems it'd be highly unusual. I don't know what the west can do about it or if doing anything is the right thing to do.

 

[InBenjiWeTrust]

My feeling for war in general is disgusting.


Thats true.

The sanctions are an interesting one. It will depend if we go to a cold war scenario or continue more or less with global trade as we know now. But i might add I heard the German chancellor say that he "hopes the sanctions last more than 6 months ". Now that shows with Europe getting 43% of their gas from Russia its not possible to cut them off for too long. The R


Well nobody can ever now for sure, but hypothetically if one looks at their history overy the last 200 plus years they have shown amazing ability to withstand privation during war, famiine etc under different political systems and come out on top, and their quiet periods are just hibernation say 1990 to 2005 but they always remain a great power.

History has shown its a mistake to mess with them, just ask Napoleon and Hitler.

Hell, surely they are very resistant, they even survived 80 years of socialism!

 

[FinestTigers]

Europeans are a band of brothers, and
Russia too is a powerful European country, and history will show that it was Russia who helped to defeat ISIS it sure was not the US.

Since the end of the cold war the US has never really thaught of being friends with Russia, why?

Instead, the US has demonised them for the past decades which has in fact forced.Russia to become increasingly friendlier with China and also become their biggest trading partner with massive trading agreements that were signed recently.

The US needed to be friends with Russia more than Russia needs the US.

The foolish ill considerations of the US's foreign policies have backfired and has resulted into a powerful partnership now consisting of Russia, China, and Iran who also have a massive ($400b) contracts with China.

They are known as the United States’ top “strategic threats” but they are getting more and more real with the New Silk Roads, the leading 21st-century project of economic integration across Eurasia.

Knowing this, The US's Deep State is becoming increasingly desperate and very worried about their control of World influences and dominance.

The US should have accepted Russia as one of their European brothers and not as an enemy by demonising them for years and years.

And this partnership of Russia, China, Iran, will be the nightmare for the US for a very long time to come.

 

[Tiger5150]

Europeans are a band of brothers, and
Russia too is a powerful European country, and history will show that it was Russia who helped to defeat ISIS it sure was not the US.

Since the end of the cold war the US has never really thaught of being friends with Russia, why?

Instead, the US has demonised them for the past decades which has in fact forced.Russia to become increasingly friendlier with China and also become their biggest trading partner with massive trading agreements that were signed recently.

The US needed to be friends with Russia more than Russia needs the US.

The foolish ill considerations of the US's foreign policies have backfired and has resulted into a powerful partnership now consisting of Russia, China, and Iran who also have a massive ($400b) contracts with China.

They are known as the United States’ top “strategic threats” but they are getting more and more real with the New Silk Roads, the leading 21st-century project of economic integration across Eurasia.

Knowing this, The US's Deep State is becoming increasingly desperate and very worried about their control of World influences and dominance.

The US should have accepted Russia as one of their European brothers and not as an enemy by demonising them for years and years.

And this partnership of Russia, China, Iran, will be the nightmare for the US for a very long time to come.

This is complete fiction. In 1991 NATO offered Russia membership. In 1994 Russia signed an agreement with NATO setting out a pathway to membership. NATO and Russia have cooperated in a number of theaters including Afghanistan. To an extent the Russians and US cooperated in Syria. Russia destroyed relations with the US and NATO by invading Ukraine the first time in 2014.

 

[FinestTigers]

This is complete fiction. In 1991 NATO offered Russia membership. In 1994 Russia signed an agreement with NATO setting out a pathway to membership. NATO and Russia have cooperated in a number of theaters including Afghanistan. To an extent the Russians and US cooperated in Syria. Russia destroyed relations with the US and NATO by invading Ukraine the first time in 2014.

I never claimed that my complete opinion will be 100% accurate, who's is?

But to say that my opinion is complete fiction i think that is very harsh.

So are you saying that all of the following statements are fictitious?

Europeans are a band of brothers,

Russia too is a powerful european country

it was Russia who helped to defeat ISIS it sure was not the US.

forced.Russia to become increasingly friendlier with China and also become their biggest trading partner with massive trading agreements that were signed recently

a powerful partnership now consisting of Russia, China, and Iran who also have .massive ($400b) contracts with China.

They are known as the United States’ top “strategic threats” but they are getting more and more real with the New Silk Roads, the leading 21st-century project of economic integration across Eurasia.

I am very suprised by your unrefined reply.

 

[Magpie_Magic]

Why global supply chains will be re-written by the 'second Cold War'

Why global supply chains will be re-written by the 'second Cold War'

The Russia-Ukraine conflict could blow apart the global economic order, including its supply chains, writes Gareth Hutchens.

www.abc.net.au

Gee, even the mainstream ABC media has caught up.

Things are moving quickly.

 

[Deleted member 3518]

Not what I would call "buddies" with anyone here and likely disagree more often than finding common ground, still, have addressed our being complicit in harming Yemen and elsewhere early in this thread.

Here’s the thing that is not understood about the Middle East . There’s a huge need for totalitarian states , because power vacuums lead to extreme atrocities like isis etc. Unfortunately , that also means who ever is in charge , whether Sunni ,Shiite , Jewish ,whatever , that those who aren’t that apart of that particular sect/ religion , get the atrocities only inflicted on them ala. Yemen , Lebanon at various times , Iran , Iraq, Syria etc.
It’s viewed as the lesser of 2 evils. Even Afghanistan resembled more of a country under taliban rule than anything it did whilst we were running it .
The Middle East is a mess . Mainly because whichever major religion you may follow , has its origins there .