Good post you've got the gist, many others haven't.
I may add to your good points.
France has been at the forefront of trying to get talks happening. Germans showing more interest in this recently.
It's a real shame that Europe seconded their foreign policy to the U.S. before the war. If they pushed for no NATO membership for Ukraine there'd be no war. As it is,the Europe union will be the biggest loser after Ukraine after the war buying overpriced food, energy and weapons from the US.
At the moment France has hardly sent any war material to Ukraine. They know Russia will be a neighbor forever and have been allied since the 1850s.
A lot more hopeful than chucking weapons in.
Putin can’t be seen to have lost, so we may have to propose something less than stellar for us in the short term.
Russia has bucklies of losing. The western media is promoting this fallacy since the west is pushing a proxy war.
It's really only a matter of how much Ukraine loses and at what cost to the Russians.
The Russians could win this war pretty easily if they wanted to because their weapons are other worldly.
Yeah, despite the horrors Russia is fighting a soft war with one hand behind their back.
Any report that they are losing is dodgy, it’s simply that they are trying to thread a needle.
Yes,
If the truth is known to most citizens in the west they would push for peace. Its in American interests the war drags on.
Putin will not stay on the Russian throne forever.
Whoever is in power, it's unlikely they'd accept Ukraine in NATO.
His biggest mistake has been to unify the west in many ways, create new threats in Finland and Sweden where there wasn’t any before. I wonder if he predicted this? I don’t know.
Finland and Sweden may still not get in. Don't think Putin foresaw this but it wouldn't worry him. Finland is a nation of 5 million in the arctic and neither want permanent bases or nukes. But Ukraine is 45 million a very industrial country with 15 nuclear power stations and loads of military and other infrastructure from Soviet days. Russia don't mind them neutral or even in the EU but won't accept this turned against them with U.S. weapons and nukes period that's ehy this is so important to them.
And if the sanctions play out, Russia becomes more dependent on China. That has its own challenges.
I think that much of this is wanted by the US in order to split the world economically. Russia is winning economically.
Our own spy plane was harassed by them recently and people seemed surprised.
We live in strange times.
In the end I think a multipolar world will bring the best out of the U.S. who got complacent as they Russia and China compete for our business and influence. Lets not forget that America was at its best during Soviet times.
I think many imbalances and financial inequalities that you mentioned will balance out because of these changes.
Sadly Ukraine and it's people and also the soldiers on both sides are suffering for this geopolitical game.