Deep Dive 19: Converting Opportunities into Points: Fixing the Wests Tigers’ Red-Zone Attack and Try-Conversion Rate
I thought I would take a different approach to this Deep Dive. Using data to highlight clear deficiencies I thought it may be good to ask what the forum thinks as opposed to me espousing my thoughts.
The data (links provided) has been used to make some basic assessments. Now it is over to you to see where the conversation goes.
Let's see how it pans out.
Introduction
In the NRL, success hinges on a team’s ability to convert possession and territory into points, particularly inside the opponent’s 20-metre “red zone.” The Wests Tigers’ attacking statistics in this area have lagged behind league benchmarks for a long while; contributing to a failure to capitalise on scoring opportunities and impacting our overall competitiveness.
Key data point: In the 2025 season, Wests Tigers converted
58.3% of their red-zone opportunities into tries, well below the
72.1% league average and the
78-80% rates posted by elite sides like Penrith Panthers and Melbourne Storm.
Closing this efficiency gap is a tangible way for Wests Tigers’ to drag ourselves in to the eight in 2026.
Deficiency Analysis
Try Conversion Rate Inside 20m
(Source:
NRL.com 2025 Team Stats)
| Team | Try Conversion % Inside 20m |
| Penrith Panthers | 79.2% |
| Melbourne Storm | 78.4% |
| Sydney Roosters | 75.6% |
| Brisbane Broncos | 74.9% |
| League Average | 72.1% |
| Wests Tigers | 58.3% |
The data shows that we convert significantly fewer red-zone opportunities compared to the competition’s leading sides; and are well below the league average. This is a must fix area for 2026. So what are the likely causes?
Offloads per Game
(Source: SportsBettingAI NRL Team Stats 2025)
Tigers average approximately 11.5 offloads per game and are the competition leaders in this area.
Offloads are important for maintaining attacking momentum and creating second-phase plays in tight defensive zones. While this stat can’t be linked directly to what is happening inside the red zone it shows that we are not turning our second phase play into scoring opportunities.
Tactical Kicking Frequency
(Source: NRL.com Match Stats)
We average fewer tactical kicks than league leaders, with approximately 0.43 tactical kicks per game, compared to an average of 1.32 across the NRL.
Tactical kicking (bombs, grubbers etc) inside the red zone can disrupt defensive line integrity and create try-scoring chances and repeat set opportunities. This stat can’t be linked to directly what is happening inside the red zone. Given our general kicking is significantly lower than the NRL average it is assumed that this correlates to what is happening inside the red zone.
The Eye Test
(Source: Nil)
Despite a lack of granular, verifiable data, several factors from match observations, expert commentary, and rugby league principles underline the Tigers’ struggles in the red zone:
Predictability and Lack of Variation
The Tigers’ attacking sets in the red zone often rely heavily on certain edges or preferred plays, making them predictable and easier to defend.
Opposing teams crowd defensive lines around our known “go-to” channels, limiting space and forcing errors or turnovers.
Execution Under Pressure
The red zone is a high-pressure area where defensive intensity peaks.
We have struggled with execution errors (knock-ons, poor passes, dropped ball) in critical phases, reducing scoring chances.
Without precise data, the eye test suggests that our handling errors and failure to complete the set with high outcome plays limits our success.
- Lack of Tactical Kicking and Variation
Effective teams use tactical kicking (bombs, grubbers) inside 20m to unsettle defences and create aerial contests.
The Tigers’ attacking repertoire inside the red zone appears limited in tactical kicking variety, reducing our ability to stretch defences and create scoring opportunities.
- Player Skill and Cohesion
Red zone success often hinges on composure, skill execution, and intuitive link-up plays.
We are in a rebuilding phase with new combinations, leading to less cohesion and timing issues in attack.
This can’t be used as an excuse in 2026 given the limited roster changes over this off season.
Summary
The Wests Tigers’ red-zone try-conversion efficiency is a clear, quantifiable weakness with a direct impact on our match outcomes.
While opportunity creation appears to be adequate, failure to convert opportunites inside the 20m zone puts pressure on all the other areas of our game.
So the big question for the forum is two-fold:
What is causing us to be so far behind in some of the key attacking stats and what can we do about it?
