Recent content by Juro

Oh god, how long is this season??? Yes, we are still a mathematical chance, at least for now. Down to a 1% chance of making the finals, this now ranks as 20th best of our 27 seasons to date, and is lower than our average chance at this stage of the season (23%). Another way of saying it is that...

Now onto Round 19. With the loss to the Warriors, we fell to a 4% chance of making the finals, almost exactly the same as we were at this point in 2021. That year we stayed mathematically alive until Round 23. This would rank as 16th best of our 27 seasons to date, and is lower than our...

Just got back from a 2 week holiday. What have I missed? Nothing. Business as usual... Here is the Round 18 curve, you remember, the one after we got wooped by the bottom team... We fell to a 12% chance of making the finals, our best chance at this point in a season since 2019. Just goes to...

Last week we had a gritty loss. Was this weekend full of grit or another 4 letter word ending in 'it'? We fell to a 20% chance of making the finals, our best chance at this point in a season since 2019. This would rank as 12th best of our 27 seasons to date, and is lower than our average chance...

Last week we had a gritty win. This week we had a gritty loss. We're going to need plenty of grit to turn the curve around. We fell to a 33% chance of making the finals, our best chance at this point in a season since 2019. This would rank as 11th best of our 27 seasons to date. I've mixed up...

We were only 27% at this point in 2005. Mind you, that was our low point that year, before going on our big winning streak.

Well we are 2 points away from 4th, compared to 6 points away from 14th

A win! Not a pretty win, but a gritty win. A win to say farewell to Leichhardt for a long time. And a win to keep our win/loss record at or above 50%, something we have somehow been able to maintain for 15 rounds now. But a 8 point win does not fully negate a 68 point loss. Last week we...

I TAKE NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE DIRECTION OF THE CURVE. 2026, 12 games down, 12 to go. Judging by far too many comments on social media, the curve should be at zero. But are things really that bad? We are still a 37% chance of making the finals, our best chance at this point in a...

This may not be a shock but I used to love these when I was a kid.

The J-curve looked like it was yet another victim of COVID, but life finds a way. While the curve didn't die, my computer did. Along with my computer went my model that does all the calculations. It has taken a while to recreate the model and redo all the previous years, but here we are. I...

Not yet...

Boo

So we're guaranteed to be 9th place after round 1...

How about Scotts Head? We could be the Scotts Head Princes...