Recent content by Juro

One week to go, and almost everything has been revealed. Almost... We are now at 95% chance of finishing in the bottom 4. As there have been only a few years with 27 rounds, there has only been one other season we were still a chance of making the bottom 4, and that was last year. We were 31%...

Not even the J Curve saw that win coming! But it does give us an outside chance of climbing out of the bottom 4. We are now at 62% chance of finishing in the bottom 4. This week our comparible seasons were 2002 (35%), 2008 (50%), 2014 (75%) and 2015 (76%). At least in 2008, we managed to...

I'm assuming there will be no bye, given we have an even number of teams next year...

We are now at 80% chance of finishing in the bottom 4. This week our comparible seasons were 2001 (93%), 2003 (93%), 2015 (92%) and 2021 (62%). Key numbers are: * 0.00% of minor premiership - Roosters are 50% (+18%) - Panthers are 25% (-30%) - Warriors are 23% (+11%) - Dolphins are 2%...

We had a bye week (YAY!!!) but that doesn't mean the numbers don't change. Results from other games largely went our way in aiming to avoid the bottom 4, except for the Dragons winning. We are now at 68% chance of finishing in the bottom 4. This week our comparible seasons were 2001 (63%), 2003...

Time for a new curve. Since we've now reached 0% for the top 8, let's move to the real fight, the race for the bottom 4. And yes, it doesn't look pretty either. But just before we get onto that, we reached 0% for the top 8 in 22 weeks. This will be the 24th season we have done so, and it is the...

20th best, 8th worst

Okay, relax. We are almost there. Where, you ask? Why at 0% chance of making the finals. Like I said, almost there. We are now at 0.04%, this still ranks as 20th best of our 27 seasons to date, and is lower than our average chance at this stage of the season (25%). Another way of saying it is...

Oh god, how long is this season??? Yes, we are still a mathematical chance, at least for now. Down to a 1% chance of making the finals, this now ranks as 20th best of our 27 seasons to date, and is lower than our average chance at this stage of the season (23%). Another way of saying it is that...

Now onto Round 19. With the loss to the Warriors, we fell to a 4% chance of making the finals, almost exactly the same as we were at this point in 2021. That year we stayed mathematically alive until Round 23. This would rank as 16th best of our 27 seasons to date, and is lower than our...

Just got back from a 2 week holiday. What have I missed? Nothing. Business as usual... Here is the Round 18 curve, you remember, the one after we got wooped by the bottom team... We fell to a 12% chance of making the finals, our best chance at this point in a season since 2019. Just goes to...

Last week we had a gritty loss. Was this weekend full of grit or another 4 letter word ending in 'it'? We fell to a 20% chance of making the finals, our best chance at this point in a season since 2019. This would rank as 12th best of our 27 seasons to date, and is lower than our average chance...

Last week we had a gritty win. This week we had a gritty loss. We're going to need plenty of grit to turn the curve around. We fell to a 33% chance of making the finals, our best chance at this point in a season since 2019. This would rank as 11th best of our 27 seasons to date. I've mixed up...

We were only 27% at this point in 2005. Mind you, that was our low point that year, before going on our big winning streak.

Well we are 2 points away from 4th, compared to 6 points away from 14th