hank37w
Well-known member
Hearing that has made me feel so much better. 🤣
The J(uro) Curve
- Thread starter Juro
- Start date
hank37w
Well-known member
Juro
Well-known member
We were only 27% at this point in 2005. Mind you, that was our low point that year, before going on our big winning streak.
Juro
Well-known member
Last week we had a gritty win. This week we had a gritty loss. We're going to need plenty of grit to turn the curve around.
We fell to a 33% chance of making the finals, our best chance at this point in a season since 2019. This would rank as 11th best of our 27 seasons to date.
I've mixed up the chart this week, to show us compared with other years where we were in a similar position at this point in the season. Those were 2002, 2005, 2008 and 2019. The interesting thing to me is that it was in the next round or two where those lines diverged. In 2005, we started our long winning streak, which carried us to the top 4. In 2008 and 2019 we weren't able to win more than a game or two in a row and only won about half of our remaining games, so their lines bounced up and down until eventually collapsing at the finish line. 2002 just went into a freefall from this point.
Key numbers are:
* 0.2% of minor premiership (-0.2% since last week)
- Panthers are 72% (-8%)
- Warriors are 14% (+6%)
- 5 team have reached 0.00%
* 6% of finishing in top 4 (-6%)
- Panthers are 97% (-1%)
- Warriors are 75% (+10%)
- Dragons are already at 0.00%
* 33% of finishing in top 8 (-12%)
- Panthers are 99.9% (-)
- Warriors are 96% (+3%)
- Dolphins are 89% (+8%)
- Dragons are the first team to reach 0.00%
* 12% of finishing in bottom 4 (+4%)
- Dragons are 99% (+1%)
- Titans are 67% (-8%)
- Raiders are 61% (+13%)
- Panthers are already at 0.00%
* 0.2% of wooden spoon (-)
- Dragons are 83% (+9%)
- Titans are 5% (-8%)
- Raiders are 4% (-)
- Rabbitohs are the 7th team to reach 0.00%
We fell to a 33% chance of making the finals, our best chance at this point in a season since 2019. This would rank as 11th best of our 27 seasons to date.
I've mixed up the chart this week, to show us compared with other years where we were in a similar position at this point in the season. Those were 2002, 2005, 2008 and 2019. The interesting thing to me is that it was in the next round or two where those lines diverged. In 2005, we started our long winning streak, which carried us to the top 4. In 2008 and 2019 we weren't able to win more than a game or two in a row and only won about half of our remaining games, so their lines bounced up and down until eventually collapsing at the finish line. 2002 just went into a freefall from this point.
Key numbers are:
* 0.2% of minor premiership (-0.2% since last week)
- Panthers are 72% (-8%)
- Warriors are 14% (+6%)
- 5 team have reached 0.00%
* 6% of finishing in top 4 (-6%)
- Panthers are 97% (-1%)
- Warriors are 75% (+10%)
- Dragons are already at 0.00%
* 33% of finishing in top 8 (-12%)
- Panthers are 99.9% (-)
- Warriors are 96% (+3%)
- Dolphins are 89% (+8%)
- Dragons are the first team to reach 0.00%
* 12% of finishing in bottom 4 (+4%)
- Dragons are 99% (+1%)
- Titans are 67% (-8%)
- Raiders are 61% (+13%)
- Panthers are already at 0.00%
* 0.2% of wooden spoon (-)
- Dragons are 83% (+9%)
- Titans are 5% (-8%)
- Raiders are 4% (-)
- Rabbitohs are the 7th team to reach 0.00%
Juro
Well-known member
Last week we had a gritty loss. Was this weekend full of grit or another 4 letter word ending in 'it'?
We fell to a 20% chance of making the finals, our best chance at this point in a season since 2019. This would rank as 12th best of our 27 seasons to date, and is lower than our average chance at this stage of the season (26%).
This week our comparible season were 2002, 2016, 2018 and 2019. As you can see, or you already knew, none of those seasons ended the way we wanted. In fact, we have never come back from a lower percentage than in 2005, when we reached a low of 27%.
Time to write some new history!
Key numbers are:
* 0.01% of minor premiership (-0.2% since last week (but still a chance!!!))
- Panthers are 63% (-9%)
- Warriors are 10% (-4%)
- Dolphins are 8% (+4%)
- Bulldogs are the 6th team to reach 0.00%
* 2% of finishing in top 4 (-4%)
- Panthers are 95% (-2%)
- Warriors are 60% (-15%)
- Dolphins are 56% (+5%)
- Titans are the 2nd team to reach 0.00%
* 20% of finishing in top 8 (-13%)
- Panthers are 99.9% (-)
- Warriors are 93% (-3%)
- Dolphins are 93% (+4%)
- Dragons are already at 0.00%
* 17% of finishing in bottom 4 (+5%)
- Dragons are 99.8% (+0.8%)
- Titans are 78% (+11%)
- Eels are 66% (+11%)
- Panthers are already at 0.00%
* 0.3% of wooden spoon (+0.1%)
- Dragons are 87% (+4%)
- Titans are 6% (+1%)
- Eels are 4% (-)
- There are 7 teams already at 0.00%
We fell to a 20% chance of making the finals, our best chance at this point in a season since 2019. This would rank as 12th best of our 27 seasons to date, and is lower than our average chance at this stage of the season (26%).
This week our comparible season were 2002, 2016, 2018 and 2019. As you can see, or you already knew, none of those seasons ended the way we wanted. In fact, we have never come back from a lower percentage than in 2005, when we reached a low of 27%.
Time to write some new history!
Key numbers are:
* 0.01% of minor premiership (-0.2% since last week (but still a chance!!!))
- Panthers are 63% (-9%)
- Warriors are 10% (-4%)
- Dolphins are 8% (+4%)
- Bulldogs are the 6th team to reach 0.00%
* 2% of finishing in top 4 (-4%)
- Panthers are 95% (-2%)
- Warriors are 60% (-15%)
- Dolphins are 56% (+5%)
- Titans are the 2nd team to reach 0.00%
* 20% of finishing in top 8 (-13%)
- Panthers are 99.9% (-)
- Warriors are 93% (-3%)
- Dolphins are 93% (+4%)
- Dragons are already at 0.00%
* 17% of finishing in bottom 4 (+5%)
- Dragons are 99.8% (+0.8%)
- Titans are 78% (+11%)
- Eels are 66% (+11%)
- Panthers are already at 0.00%
* 0.3% of wooden spoon (+0.1%)
- Dragons are 87% (+4%)
- Titans are 6% (+1%)
- Eels are 4% (-)
- There are 7 teams already at 0.00%
mtd#2
Well-known member
I am glad this is back.
Hopefully we are about to see an upward swing!
mtd#2
Well-known member
I think I recall seeing juro comment that everytime he starts this that the club falls off a cliff... Looks like it came to fruition
The Fresh Oil
Well-known member
I like to plot my cliff jumps so I enjoy the curve
You made me laugh as tragic as it always ends up being watching the nosedive through the season
Juro
Well-known member
Just got back from a 2 week holiday. What have I missed?
Nothing. Business as usual...
Here is the Round 18 curve, you remember, the one after we got wooped by the bottom team...
We fell to a 12% chance of making the finals, our best chance at this point in a season since 2019. Just goes to show how awful our last 6 years have been...
This would rank as 14th best of our 27 seasons to date, and is lower than our average chance at this stage of the season (23%).
This week our comparible season were 2002, 2009, 2016 and 2021. The only really interesting season of those was 2009 when we went on that wonderful winning streak which came to a crashing halt with Taniela Tuiaki's injury. Bloody Parra.
Key numbers are:
* 0.00% of minor premiership (-0.01% since last week)
- Panthers are 75% (+8%)
- Warriors are 8% (-2%)
- Knights are 7% (+1%)
- We are the 7th team to reach 0.00%
* 0.5% of finishing in top 4 (-1%)
- Panthers are 98% (+3%)
- Warriors are 62% (+2%)
- Knights are 60% (+14%)
- Broncos are the 3rd team to reach 0.00%
* 12% of finishing in top 8 (-8%)
- Panthers are 100% (the 1st team to reach this)
- Warriors are 95% (+2%)
- Knights are 94% (+6%)
- Dragons are already at 0.00%
* 23% of finishing in bottom 4 (+6%)
- Dragons are 99% (-0.8%)
- Titans are 76% (-2%)
- Broncos are 68% (+11%)
- Panthers are already at 0.00%
* 0.4% of wooden spoon (+0.1%)
- Dragons are 82% (-5%)
- Titans are 9% (+3%)
- Broncos are 4% (+2%)
- Sharks are the 8th team to reach 0.00%
Nothing. Business as usual...
Here is the Round 18 curve, you remember, the one after we got wooped by the bottom team...
We fell to a 12% chance of making the finals, our best chance at this point in a season since 2019. Just goes to show how awful our last 6 years have been...
This would rank as 14th best of our 27 seasons to date, and is lower than our average chance at this stage of the season (23%).
This week our comparible season were 2002, 2009, 2016 and 2021. The only really interesting season of those was 2009 when we went on that wonderful winning streak which came to a crashing halt with Taniela Tuiaki's injury. Bloody Parra.
Key numbers are:
* 0.00% of minor premiership (-0.01% since last week)
- Panthers are 75% (+8%)
- Warriors are 8% (-2%)
- Knights are 7% (+1%)
- We are the 7th team to reach 0.00%
* 0.5% of finishing in top 4 (-1%)
- Panthers are 98% (+3%)
- Warriors are 62% (+2%)
- Knights are 60% (+14%)
- Broncos are the 3rd team to reach 0.00%
* 12% of finishing in top 8 (-8%)
- Panthers are 100% (the 1st team to reach this)
- Warriors are 95% (+2%)
- Knights are 94% (+6%)
- Dragons are already at 0.00%
* 23% of finishing in bottom 4 (+6%)
- Dragons are 99% (-0.8%)
- Titans are 76% (-2%)
- Broncos are 68% (+11%)
- Panthers are already at 0.00%
* 0.4% of wooden spoon (+0.1%)
- Dragons are 82% (-5%)
- Titans are 9% (+3%)
- Broncos are 4% (+2%)
- Sharks are the 8th team to reach 0.00%
Last edited:
Juro
Well-known member
Now onto Round 19.
With the loss to the Warriors, we fell to a 4% chance of making the finals, almost exactly the same as we were at this point in 2021. That year we stayed mathematically alive until Round 23.
This would rank as 16th best of our 27 seasons to date, and is lower than our average chance at this stage of the season (24%). Another way of saying it is that it is the 12th worst of our 27 seasons. In 4 of those seasons, we had already reached 0.00%.
This week our comparible season were 2001, 2002, 2021 and 2025. No further comment. The chart speaks for itself.
Key numbers are:
* 0.00% of minor premiership
- Panthers are 73% (-2%)
- Warriors are 12% (+4%)
- Roosters are 8% (+3%)
- There are 7 teams at 0.00%
* 0.1% of finishing in top 4 (-0.4%)
- Panthers are 98% (-)
- Warriors are 75% (+13%)
- Roosters are 61% (+2%)
- Eels are the 4th team to reach 0.00%
* 4% of finishing in top 8 (-8%)
- Panthers are already at 100%
- Warriors are 98% (+3%)
- Roosters are 95% (+5%)
- Dragons are already at 0.00%
* 33% of finishing in bottom 4 (+10%)
- Dragons are 99% (-)
- Titans are 85% (+9%)
- Broncos are 66% (-2%)
- Warriors and Roosters are the 2nd and 3rd teams to reach 0.00%
* 0.6% of wooden spoon (+0.2%)
- Dragons are 80% (-2%)
- Titans are 12% (+3%)
- Broncos are 4% (-)
- Storm are the 9th team to reach 0.00%
With the loss to the Warriors, we fell to a 4% chance of making the finals, almost exactly the same as we were at this point in 2021. That year we stayed mathematically alive until Round 23.
This would rank as 16th best of our 27 seasons to date, and is lower than our average chance at this stage of the season (24%). Another way of saying it is that it is the 12th worst of our 27 seasons. In 4 of those seasons, we had already reached 0.00%.
This week our comparible season were 2001, 2002, 2021 and 2025. No further comment. The chart speaks for itself.
Key numbers are:
* 0.00% of minor premiership
- Panthers are 73% (-2%)
- Warriors are 12% (+4%)
- Roosters are 8% (+3%)
- There are 7 teams at 0.00%
* 0.1% of finishing in top 4 (-0.4%)
- Panthers are 98% (-)
- Warriors are 75% (+13%)
- Roosters are 61% (+2%)
- Eels are the 4th team to reach 0.00%
* 4% of finishing in top 8 (-8%)
- Panthers are already at 100%
- Warriors are 98% (+3%)
- Roosters are 95% (+5%)
- Dragons are already at 0.00%
* 33% of finishing in bottom 4 (+10%)
- Dragons are 99% (-)
- Titans are 85% (+9%)
- Broncos are 66% (-2%)
- Warriors and Roosters are the 2nd and 3rd teams to reach 0.00%
* 0.6% of wooden spoon (+0.2%)
- Dragons are 80% (-2%)
- Titans are 12% (+3%)
- Broncos are 4% (-)
- Storm are the 9th team to reach 0.00%
Juro
Well-known member
Oh god, how long is this season???
Yes, we are still a mathematical chance, at least for now. Down to a 1% chance of making the finals, this now ranks as 20th best of our 27 seasons to date, and is lower than our average chance at this stage of the season (23%). Another way of saying it is that it is the 8th worst of our 27 seasons. In 5 of those seasons, we had already reached 0.00%.
This week our comparible season were 2002, 2003, 2015 and 2021. No further comment. The chart speaks for itself.
Key numbers are:
* 0.00% of minor premiership
- Panthers are 60% (-13%)
- Warriors are 20% (+8%)
- Roosters are 14% (+6%)
- Sharks are 4% (+2%)
- Storm are the 8th team to reach 0.00%, although they have been less than 1% since Round 6
* 0.00% of finishing in top 4 (-0.1%), 5th team to reach 0.00%
- Panthers are 97% (-1%)
- Warriors are 85% (+10%)
- Roosters are 72% (+11%)
- Sharks are 57% (+14%)
* 1% of finishing in top 8 (-3%)
- Panthers are already at 100%
- Warriors are 99% (+1%)
- Roosters are 98% (+3%)
- Sharks are 96% (+8%)
- Dolphins are 92% (+13%)
- Knights are 88% (-3%)
- Cowboys are 62% (-9%)
- Dragons are already at 0.00%
* 53% of finishing in bottom 4 (+20%)
- Dragons are 99.9% (+0.9%)
- Titans are 79% (-6%)
- Eels are 67% (+4%)
- Broncos are 58% (-8%)
- Dolphins and Sharks are the 4th and 55h teams to reach 0.00%
* 0.8% of wooden spoon (+0.2%)
- Dragons are 91% (+11%)
- Titans are 5% (-7%)
- Eels are 3% (-)
- Broncos are 1% (-3%)
- Storm are the 9th team to reach 0.00%
Yes, we are still a mathematical chance, at least for now. Down to a 1% chance of making the finals, this now ranks as 20th best of our 27 seasons to date, and is lower than our average chance at this stage of the season (23%). Another way of saying it is that it is the 8th worst of our 27 seasons. In 5 of those seasons, we had already reached 0.00%.
This week our comparible season were 2002, 2003, 2015 and 2021. No further comment. The chart speaks for itself.
Key numbers are:
* 0.00% of minor premiership
- Panthers are 60% (-13%)
- Warriors are 20% (+8%)
- Roosters are 14% (+6%)
- Sharks are 4% (+2%)
- Storm are the 8th team to reach 0.00%, although they have been less than 1% since Round 6
* 0.00% of finishing in top 4 (-0.1%), 5th team to reach 0.00%
- Panthers are 97% (-1%)
- Warriors are 85% (+10%)
- Roosters are 72% (+11%)
- Sharks are 57% (+14%)
* 1% of finishing in top 8 (-3%)
- Panthers are already at 100%
- Warriors are 99% (+1%)
- Roosters are 98% (+3%)
- Sharks are 96% (+8%)
- Dolphins are 92% (+13%)
- Knights are 88% (-3%)
- Cowboys are 62% (-9%)
- Dragons are already at 0.00%
* 53% of finishing in bottom 4 (+20%)
- Dragons are 99.9% (+0.9%)
- Titans are 79% (-6%)
- Eels are 67% (+4%)
- Broncos are 58% (-8%)
- Dolphins and Sharks are the 4th and 55h teams to reach 0.00%
* 0.8% of wooden spoon (+0.2%)
- Dragons are 91% (+11%)
- Titans are 5% (-7%)
- Eels are 3% (-)
- Broncos are 1% (-3%)
- Storm are the 9th team to reach 0.00%
Juro
Well-known member
Okay, relax. We are almost there.
Where, you ask? Why at 0% chance of making the finals. Like I said, almost there. We are now at 0.04%, this still ranks as 20th best of our 27 seasons to date, and is lower than our average chance at this stage of the season (25%). Another way of saying it is that it is the 8th worst of our 27 seasons. In 5 of those seasons, we had already reached 0.00%.
This week our comparible season were 2003 (0.03%), 2013 (0.01%), 2015 (1%) and 2025 (0.7%). Yes, we were in a better position this time last year.
Key numbers are:
* 0.00% of minor premiership
- Panthers are 71% (+11%)
- Roosters are 16% (+2%)
- Warriors are 8% (-12%)
- Sharks are 4% (-)
- Sea Eagles are the 9th team to reach 0.00%
* 0.00% of finishing in top 4
- Panthers are 99% (+2%)
- Roosters are 82% (+10%)
- Warriors are 76% (-9%)
- Sharks are 73% (+16%)
- 5 teams are already at 0.00%
* 0.04% of finishing in top 8 (-1%)
- Panthers are already at 100%
- Roosters are 99.5% (+1.5%)
- Warriors are 99% (-)
- Sharks are 99% (+3%)
- Dolphins are 91% (-1%)
- Knights are 81% (-7%)
- Cowboys are 74% (+12%)
- Rabbitohs are 74% (+13%)
- Sea Eagles are 31% (-21%)
- Dragons are already at 0.00%
* 67% of finishing in bottom 4 (+14%)
- Dragons are 100% (+0.01%)
- Eels are 75% (+8%)
- Broncos are 70% (+12%)
- Titans are 64% (-15%)
- 5 teams are already at 0.00%
* 0.9% of wooden spoon (+0.1%)
- Dragons are 96% (+5%)
- Eels are 2% (-1%)
- Broncos are 0.9% (-0.1%)
- Titans are 0.3% (-5%)
- Bulldogs and Raiders are the 11th and 12th teams to reach 0.00%
Where, you ask? Why at 0% chance of making the finals. Like I said, almost there. We are now at 0.04%, this still ranks as 20th best of our 27 seasons to date, and is lower than our average chance at this stage of the season (25%). Another way of saying it is that it is the 8th worst of our 27 seasons. In 5 of those seasons, we had already reached 0.00%.
This week our comparible season were 2003 (0.03%), 2013 (0.01%), 2015 (1%) and 2025 (0.7%). Yes, we were in a better position this time last year.
Key numbers are:
* 0.00% of minor premiership
- Panthers are 71% (+11%)
- Roosters are 16% (+2%)
- Warriors are 8% (-12%)
- Sharks are 4% (-)
- Sea Eagles are the 9th team to reach 0.00%
* 0.00% of finishing in top 4
- Panthers are 99% (+2%)
- Roosters are 82% (+10%)
- Warriors are 76% (-9%)
- Sharks are 73% (+16%)
- 5 teams are already at 0.00%
* 0.04% of finishing in top 8 (-1%)
- Panthers are already at 100%
- Roosters are 99.5% (+1.5%)
- Warriors are 99% (-)
- Sharks are 99% (+3%)
- Dolphins are 91% (-1%)
- Knights are 81% (-7%)
- Cowboys are 74% (+12%)
- Rabbitohs are 74% (+13%)
- Sea Eagles are 31% (-21%)
- Dragons are already at 0.00%
* 67% of finishing in bottom 4 (+14%)
- Dragons are 100% (+0.01%)
- Eels are 75% (+8%)
- Broncos are 70% (+12%)
- Titans are 64% (-15%)
- 5 teams are already at 0.00%
* 0.9% of wooden spoon (+0.1%)
- Dragons are 96% (+5%)
- Eels are 2% (-1%)
- Broncos are 0.9% (-0.1%)
- Titans are 0.3% (-5%)
- Bulldogs and Raiders are the 11th and 12th teams to reach 0.00%
shiretiger
Well-known member
Last edited:
tig_prmz
Well-known member
This being our 7th best season in history is quite funny.
Juro
Well-known member
20th best, 8th worst
Juro
Well-known member
Time for a new curve. Since we've now reached 0% for the top 8, let's move to the real fight, the race for the bottom 4. And yes, it doesn't look pretty either.
But just before we get onto that, we reached 0% for the top 8 in 22 weeks. This will be the 24th season we have done so, and it is the equal 6th fastest we have reached that unfortunate milestone. The only years we did it faster were:
Key numbers are:
* 0.00% of minor premiership
- Panthers are 73% (+2%)
- Roosters are 16% (-)
- Warriors are 8% (-)
- Sharks are 4% (-)
- Dolphins are 0.1% (-1%)
- All other teams have now reached 0.00%
* 0.00% of finishing in top 4
- Panthers are 99.6% (+0.6%)
- Roosters are 90% (+8%)
- Warriors are 83% (+7%)
- Sharks are 80% (+7%)
- Dolphins are 29% (-1%)
- Raiders and Storm are the 6th and 7th teams to reach 0.00%
* 0.00% of finishing in top 8 (-0.04%)
- Roosters are the 2nd team to reach 100% (+0.5%)
- Warriors are 99.9% (+0.9%)
- Sharks are 99.9% (+0.9%)
- Dolphins are 97% (+6%)
- Knights are 94% (+13%)
- Rabbitohs are 61% (-13%)
- Cowboys are 58% (-16%)
- Bulldogs are 48% (+22%)
- Sea Eagles are 32% (+1%)
- Raiders are 9% (-10%)
- Storm are 2% (-4%)
- Eels are 0.3% (+0.2%)
- Broncos are 0.01% (-0.2%)
- We and Titans are the 2nd and 3rd teams to reach 0.00%
* 76% of finishing in bottom 4 (+9%)
- Dragons are already at 100%
- Broncos are 77% (+7%)
- Titans are 73% (+9%)
- Eels are 53% (-22%)
- Storm are 16% (+2%)
- Knights are the 6th team to reach 0.00%
* 0.2% of wooden spoon (-0.7%)
- Dragons are 99% (+3%)
- Broncos are 0.6% (-0.3%)
- Titans are 0.3% (-)
- Eels are 0.2% (-2%)
- all other teams have now reached 0.00%
But just before we get onto that, we reached 0% for the top 8 in 22 weeks. This will be the 24th season we have done so, and it is the equal 6th fastest we have reached that unfortunate milestone. The only years we did it faster were:
- 2020: Round 18 (of only 20 rounds)
- 2022: Round 18
- 2023: Round 19
- 2024: Round 19
- 2017: Round 20
Key numbers are:
* 0.00% of minor premiership
- Panthers are 73% (+2%)
- Roosters are 16% (-)
- Warriors are 8% (-)
- Sharks are 4% (-)
- Dolphins are 0.1% (-1%)
- All other teams have now reached 0.00%
* 0.00% of finishing in top 4
- Panthers are 99.6% (+0.6%)
- Roosters are 90% (+8%)
- Warriors are 83% (+7%)
- Sharks are 80% (+7%)
- Dolphins are 29% (-1%)
- Raiders and Storm are the 6th and 7th teams to reach 0.00%
* 0.00% of finishing in top 8 (-0.04%)
- Roosters are the 2nd team to reach 100% (+0.5%)
- Warriors are 99.9% (+0.9%)
- Sharks are 99.9% (+0.9%)
- Dolphins are 97% (+6%)
- Knights are 94% (+13%)
- Rabbitohs are 61% (-13%)
- Cowboys are 58% (-16%)
- Bulldogs are 48% (+22%)
- Sea Eagles are 32% (+1%)
- Raiders are 9% (-10%)
- Storm are 2% (-4%)
- Eels are 0.3% (+0.2%)
- Broncos are 0.01% (-0.2%)
- We and Titans are the 2nd and 3rd teams to reach 0.00%
* 76% of finishing in bottom 4 (+9%)
- Dragons are already at 100%
- Broncos are 77% (+7%)
- Titans are 73% (+9%)
- Eels are 53% (-22%)
- Storm are 16% (+2%)
- Knights are the 6th team to reach 0.00%
* 0.2% of wooden spoon (-0.7%)
- Dragons are 99% (+3%)
- Broncos are 0.6% (-0.3%)
- Titans are 0.3% (-)
- Eels are 0.2% (-2%)
- all other teams have now reached 0.00%
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