6 wins

[Cosimo_Zaretti]

Some simple arithmetic. 16 teams in the comp, 8 through to the finals. Win better than 50% and you finish up in the top half and get to play in September. Win right on 50% and you're in the annual for and against logjam. Let's not go there.

So by my maths there are 24 games in a season. The Tigers have played 12, won 7\. We need 13 wins to guarantee a finals berth. That means scratching together 6 more from the remaining 12 matches.

So which games are getting us home?

Round 14 V Bunnies
Round 15 Bye
Round 16 V Raiders
Round 17 V Panthers
Round 18 V Sea Eagles
Round 19 V Bulldogs
Round 20 V Dragons
Round 21 V Storm
Round 22 V Cowboys
Round 23 V Roosters
Round 24 V Bulldogs
Round 25 V Raiders
Round 26 V Sharks.

There are some gifts in there, like playing the Raiders twice and a rematch with the Cows. We've made a reasonable start despite injuries, just need those 7 wins.

Edited to reflect current standings.

 

[happy_tiger]

Round 17-24 is the key

Apart from the Saints game these are the ones we have to stand up and perform

 

[pHyR3]

win 1 from our next 2 matches, which are both very winnable; sharks and then broncos without their origin players and we should be able to scrape 7 wins with tedesco, sue, simona, farah, gavet, taupau, sironen and fulton all back.

 

[tigerbill]

I feel that it isn't about our opponents, it's about our injuries. This makes predictions hard.

 

[happy_tiger]

Games we should win if we are Top 8 contenders

Round 10 Sharks
Round 11 Broncos
Round 13 Knights
Round 16 Raiders
Round 17 Penrith
Round 20 Saints
Round 25 Raiders
Round 26 Sharks

Winnable games
Round 14 Souths
Round 21 Storm (home game )
Round 22 Cowboys

Other games we would probably go in as underdogs but winnable if we are at near full strength

 

[jirskyr]

I think it's a mistake to start counting matches. We want to win every match and take each week at a time, only look at the table once the work is done and we are trying to improve where in the Top 8 we finish.

Because the is no forecasting these remaining rounds, my tipping is already horrible as it is.

 

[Cosimo_Zaretti]

Ok, to guarantee that top 8 spot without playing for and against roulette we now need 7 wins from the remaining 14 games. If we could pull of a win against an origin depleted Brisbane we'd be in a much nicer spot.