Analysis of seasons past- results surprise

[innsaneink]

meh

 

[jirskyr]

meh

I've known you to be more constructive than this - your apathy for 2015 reached its peak? Still taking time to comment though?

 

[NT_Tiger]

Well argued jirskyr.

 

[magpiecol]

I have added rounds 18 and 19 to the original data.

Our attack is now averaging 17.42 points a game - **The worst ever by a Wests Tigers team**.

Our defense is now averaging 24.36 points a game - **Only the 10th best for a Wests Tigers team**
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So lets get this clear and cut all the spin -

***16th out of 16 in attack\
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*10th out of 16 in defense.**

Is it any wonder we are coming dead last.

No this is incorrect. Everything I have posted in this thread is all results up to and including Round 19 vs Broncos.

We didn't even play Round 18, it was a bye.

Attack in 2015 is 14/16 of all seasons as measured by "Points For per game", defence is 6/16 for Points Against.

We are coming last 2015 for several reasons, and it is not just about points scored or conceded. Firstly, our losing margins are quite small, but they are consistent. I.e. we lose often but not by much = we are unable to convert close games into wins. That is the primary issue with our 2015 season: we either win big, or we lose.

We also happen to be caught in an unfortunately better performing bottom ladder.

For the past 5 seasons 2010-2014, the bottom placed side has totalled 5 or 6 wins (for 2010 Melbourne were moved to last due to salary cap, but 2nd last Cowboys only had 5 wins). We are obviously already on 5 wins with 7 games in hand.

Furthermore, the win % for bottom teams in 2015 is higher than any of the previous 5 seasons:
- bottom 4 teams win % 2010-2014 = 30.63%; in 2015 = 33.82%
- bottom 3 teams win % 2010-2014 = 28.33%; in 2015 = 33.33%
- bottom 2 teams win % 2010-2014 = 26.25%; in 2015 = 32.35%

In other words, the bottom 4 are doing better this year than any of the previous 5 years. Even further to this, the average difference between 8th and last for the previous 5 years was 0.55 table points per game. It is currently 0.47 table points per game, so we are closer to the Top 8 than last usually is.

So it's not just about Tigers doing badly in 2015, it is also that bottom-performing sides this year are doing better than they usually do.

It amuses me that you say "lets get clear and cut out the spin" and then proceed to spin/interpret the data the way you see fit.

Data is data, it is facts. Interpretation of data is always prone to bias; as others have said you may be able to support opposed arguments by selective interpretation of the same data.

But don't make the mistake of calling one argument "spin" and another "clear". All arguments about human behaviour are spin of one kind of another.

Facts will never convince the haters. Most of them, from what I have read, would not understand them anyway. They only understand instant gratification. Nothing else. Waiting for something? Forget it.

 

[stevetiger]

Facts will never convince the haters. Most of them, from what I have read, would not understand them anyway. They only understand instant gratification. Nothing else. Waiting for something? Forget it.

Come one. You can't say that. You just can't.

Are we last on the ladder ? Have had we had a dud season ?

You have no facts to back you up.

There are no haters. There are those who are judging the situation fairly and there are those with some bizarre agenda who are supporting our JT. Admit he has been terrible but hopefully he learns from everything that has happened and improves significantly next season. That is the best that we can hope for. Spinning the situation for some bizarre reason doesn't help anyone.

 

[TrueTiger]

meh

I've known you to be more constructive than this - your apathy for 2015 reached its peak? Still taking time to comment though?

can we have a group hug ??? :slight_smile:

 

[TrueTiger]

Well argued jirskyr.

Im very impressed with the work on the stats jirsky,I for one appreciate you putting them forward…

 

[innsaneink]

Talk about over analyzing things

You gotta.laugh

FTR there is no surprise results here…it's all here.
http://afltables.com/rl/rl_index.html

 

[tig_prmz]

great work jirskyr but what happens if you take into account statas upto round 19 of other seasons only as well?

i remember last year we were in the hunt until about this time then we started letting in 50 points a game.

our seasons only gonna get worse from here.

the thing about RL is that there are far too many variables to have stats based around points conceded and scored only.

good work and i love the stats but dont think they prove much tbh.

 

[jirskyr]

Facts will never convince the haters. Most of them, from what I have read, would not understand them anyway. They only understand instant gratification. Nothing else. Waiting for something? Forget it.

Come one. You can't say that. You just can't.

Are we last on the ladder ? Have had we had a dud season ?

You have no facts to back you up.

There are no haters. There are those who are judging the situation fairly and there are those with some bizarre agenda who are supporting our JT. Admit he has been terrible but hopefully he learns from everything that has happened and improves significantly next season. That is the best that we can hope for. Spinning the situation for some bizarre reason doesn't help anyone.

Surely Steve you understand the irony of your last paragraph? "There are no haters, there are only those judging fairly (i.e. me) and those with bizarre agendas". It is your opinion that you are judging fairly, it doesn't mean people who disagree with you are being unreasonable.

I think we have consensus that this is a crap season. The question is how bad season is it really, in context, and what are the causes?

You can't just say "admit he has been terrible". No, the results have been bad, but you don't really know how good a coach he is. This is especially true given only 1 year of observations with the Tigers (and only 5 seasons experience total).

Being a good coach should not simply be measured by # of wins, because there is more to winning than just who your coach is. Prime example is Wayne Bennett - 12th last year, first this year. Did the coach suddenly go from poor to great?

So I think col is saying that you need to give a coach time to produce the good performances. I happen to agree with this. Tim Sheens didn't get the Tigers to the finals in his first season, but he did get us there.

As to whether Tigers are improving, that is debatable. For # wins and table position, if that is all that counts, then no we are not currently improving. If you look at defence, well we are improving a fair amount. Attack has statistically improved a little.

 

[Pokies]

Ahh yes round 19 2014\. Who can forget the day we tore the dogs apart and were looking good for a top 8 berth.

Then the proverbial hit the fan and Potter was systematically destroyed from within the club and with the team losing all hope.
The last 7 rounds of 2014 we finished up like this:
Loss: 28 - 12
Loss: 28 - 6
Loss: 64 - 6
Loss: 48 - 4
Loss: 30 - 10
Loss: 27 -12
Win: 26 -10

I think its safe to say that Potters stats were influenced towards the negative quite significantly during these last 7 games.
Lets see how we finish off the remaining 7 in 2015.

The stat that stood out the most to me was Taylors winning percentage - 29.41%. (the worst in the history of Wests Tigers)

At the end of the day I think we all agree that's the most important thing winning or losing and its the easiest way of judging if a season has been successful or not.

 

[jirskyr]

Talk about over analyzing things

You gotta.laugh

FTR there is no surprise results here…it's all here.
http://afltables.com/rl/rl_index.html

Yeah raw data is there, but they only analyse certain stats. You can't investigate beyond what they make available.

 

[alexaki]

can you come do my 2015 tax return..

 

[Tiger_In_The_Gong]

Jirskyr, apologies for the misunderstanding. I had confused what you posted.

I think youve put in a massive effort with these stats so full credit for the effort..

I do however maintain that the stats were an attempt to apologise for Taylors failings, but they are your stats and your prerogative to interpret them how you please.

 

[stevetiger]

Facts will never convince the haters. Most of them, from what I have read, would not understand them anyway. They only understand instant gratification. Nothing else. Waiting for something? Forget it.

Come one. You can't say that. You just can't.

Are we last on the ladder ? Have had we had a dud season ?

You have no facts to back you up.

There are no haters. There are those who are judging the situation fairly and there are those with some bizarre agenda who are supporting our JT. Admit he has been terrible but hopefully he learns from everything that has happened and improves significantly next season. That is the best that we can hope for. Spinning the situation for some bizarre reason doesn't help anyone.

Surely Steve you understand the irony of your last paragraph? "There are no haters, there are only those judging fairly (i.e. me) and those with bizarre agendas". It is your opinion that you are judging fairly, it doesn't mean people who disagree with you are being unreasonable.

I think we have consensus that this is a crap season. The question is how bad season is it really, in context, and what are the causes?

You can't just say "admit he has been terrible". No, the results have been bad, but you don't really know how good a coach he is. This is especially true given only 1 year of observations with the Tigers (and only 5 seasons experience total).

Being a good coach should not simply be measured by # of wins, because there is more to winning than just who your coach is. Prime example is Wayne Bennett - 12th last year, first this year. Did the coach suddenly go from poor to great?

So I think col is saying that you need to give a coach time to produce the good performances. I happen to agree with this. Tim Sheens didn't get the Tigers to the finals in his first season, but he did get us there.

As to whether Tigers are improving, that is debatable. For # wins and table position, if that is all that counts, then no we are not currently improving. If you look at defence, well we are improving a fair amount. Attack has statistically improved a little.

I think its pretty clear that we are coming dead last and its our worst season on record. When I hear haters and all the spin it is pretty obvious to me that there is some agenda coming from those guys.

I'm glad that you admit it has been a crap season. That's what I expect to hear. You can also say the coach has done a terrible job because of the boring play that we have come up with and our defence has been ordinary. The thing that really gets me though is the spin. If JT was honest (the same as his supporters) then I'd be cool with it.

I'll add that although I think ideally JT would be sacked it is based on his delusional comments rather than anything else. He has done some good things namely Lawrence has been great and Richards had to go. I also don't think he will go and I'm cool with that because he may improve.

 

[Tiger_In_The_Gong]

The stats with a direct comparison Potter v Taylor rounds 1 to 19

Potter average points for = 21.17
Potter average points against = 28.35

Taylor average points for = 18.18
Taylor average points against = 22.53

Seems about right.

 

[boonboon]

The stats with a direct comparison Potter v Taylor rounds 1 to 19

Potter average points for = 21.17
Potter average points against = 28.35

Taylor average points for = 18.18
Taylor average points against = 22.53

Seems about right.

Good to see someone else recognising JT is a much better coach then Potter

 

[Eddie]

Peter Morres was the English cricket coach twice….

He used to go in the sheds 5 minute after a batsman got out, shove a computer in the face and say lets look at the data....

He had all these graphs, wagon wheels, etc for the media to show the team was improving. It all sounded great and some of the stats were in his favour (except the win/loss ratio)

Unfortunetly He drove players insane and the media talked about him being like a robot (and was sacked twice) He didnt win many games but always promised great things were on the horizon (they never were)

The problem I have with Taylor is that every press conference - almost every answer he is trying to justify himself. He comes across as extremely thin skinned. Seriously ringing a radio station to explain himself? Th writing was on the wall then.

Seriously I wish Taylor (and his stats men in here) would stop with the nauseating were improving and were going to ram these stats down your thraot to prove it. Better off just saying look were in last place, we need to do a better job.

 

[innsaneink]

The stats with a direct comparison Potter v Taylor rounds 1 to 19

Potter average points for = 21.17
Potter average points against = 28.35

Taylor average points for = 18.18
Taylor average points against = 22.53

Seems about right.

Good to see someone else recognising JT is a much better coach then Potter

LMAO

Yes, use stats to gauge Potsys results with us.

No idea

:deadhorse:

 

[stevetiger]

Seriously I wish Taylor (and his stats men in here) would stop with the nauseating were improving and were going to ram these stats down your thraot to prove it. Better off just saying look were in last place, we need to do a better job.

Exactly. Accept reality and show some class. That is where you need to start from. The spin is getting old.