Coronavirus Outbreak

[Tiger5150]

I’m having difficulty in understanding social distancing rules? It seems ok to stand in a queue to vote but a funeral must be limited to 10 mourners. It seems ok for hairdressers to continue to work, but beaches must be closed because the bathers are getting too close?
Has this pandemic shown us how ineffective our political system is ? Or are we just lacking leadership? I can understand why we need to take advice from WHO , but we always seem to be behind the pace? Russia closed its borders, and started contact tracing, in January. I’m not suggesting Russia is a model to follow or a country I would like to live in , merely pointing to decisive leadership.


Not having a go at you, nor am I necessarily defending the Govt or leadership, but what exactly do you think they should do? Are you suggesting a full lockdown?

Seems that most people are screaming that the Govt "should do more!!!" but I think it seems to be a lot of people who would not vote Libs in any situation.

Personally, I dont want the Govt to do more, or do less. I want them to take the advice of ALL the experts available to them to chart a course that navigates the tricky path of minimising deaths, ensuring our health system is not overwhelmed yet maintaining the maximum economic heartbeat possible.

Of course the natural reaction is to think to stop everything, shut down everything in total lockdown, and it may come to that and be necessary if it looks like it will overwhelm the health system, and Id be all for it in those circumstances, but if it is possible to reduce the rate of spread to a point that the health system can cope, yet keep as much of the economy running, then for me that is the best path.

This may seem callous for want of a better word, but when this is over, we are going to need to climb out of it and the depth of the decline economically will have a massive impact on many peoples lives for years to come and it will be the lower socioeconomic levels hit hardest. Rich people with assets will make it through.

The natural reaction is always 1 death is too many, but we average 4500 deaths a year for influenza and we dont shut down the economy to save those deaths. I am NOT suggeting this is the same as the flu, its not and if we did nothing there would be more than 10 x that number dead, but there does need to be a balance between possibility of deaths and possibility of economic depression.


5150, I’m not having a go at you either and I’m not wanting to get into a any pee high club discussion.
Just pointing out my observation that we always appear to be a country which follows, rather than one which gets on the front foot instinctively and decisively does what’s best for Australia and it’s citizens. There was a time when citizenship meant something. Anyway, cheer on your club if you like, but it doesn’t explain the failings in our political system.
Here’s an example..
https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/6698458/hairdressers-call-for-clear-messaging-directive-to-close-from-government/


Mate I dont necessarily disagree with you and I am **definitely** not wanting to get into a club discussion, in fact I dont actually feel like I have a club in this discussion, definitely not one Im cheering on.

Part of what prompted me to respond to your post was listening to discussions about what is going on in the UK. Their strategy is a bit different to what is going on in Italy & US and to a great extent appears to be a lot more successful. Their strategy is not based on auto lock down but involves lock down when required.

Im not sure what you are specifically referring to when you say the Govt which follows, particularly when we were the second country to shut borders to China, Iran & Italy. It is entirely possible that the strategy that the Aus Govt is following, on the advice of their experts, is entirely intentional and what is happening is EXACTLY what they are trying to do, but merely is different to the instinctive reaction of the general population, who aren't aware of the advice they are getting from the expertise.


Obviously not everyone is listening to the same experts.
I don’t have a problem with the governments staggered approach, although the downside is they need to wait 14 days to see what’s working. It was usually the approach I’ve taken, whether in business or with my health. If we follow the Shorten / Albo approach which is ‘throw the kitchen sink at it and hope for the best, then if it doesn’t work it’s harder to find out why. Or if it does work we can only speculate which remedy was more effective. I don’t know if the enormity of our problem is registering with some. I’ve heard from Doc the damage the virus causes to the lungs is irreparable.

It is hard to argue with the measures so far when the data is starting to turn for us, we know have to see if we need to make more restrictions to get it turn enough!


I was not going to post this for a few days to see how it panned out, but what you are saying correlates well with it. Four days ago the exponential rate of growth dropped markedly from a steady 1.23 - 1.25 down to 1.13. But since then it seems to have instantly found a new steady level with four days 1.13, 1.15, 1.13, 1.14. Hoping it drops again but if it stays there, more measures might be needed.



Well a couple of people wanted an update so here we are.....

Yesterday there was a significant dip in the exponential growth multiplier. It dipped down from a steady 1.3 for a few days, down below 1.1 to 1.09. This is pretty significant as it may be the second round of restrictions washing through. For those playing along at home, to be steady at 1.1 we need less that 4382 cases by the end of today.



This is obviously encouraging as slowing it down is obviously a good thing, but how does this end? At what point do we start thinking about re-opening the economy (Im not suggesting soon)?

I could imagine a scenario where parts of the local economy are reopened, but with disasters all over the world (US and parts of Europe), once its under control here I can see our borders closed for a LONG time.


Ok so something is definitely happening and so far it looks good. Another big dip yesterday in the exponential growth multiplier . It was steady at 1.23 for weeks, then spent four days at 1.13 and has spent the last two days going down. 1.09 Sunday and 1.06 yesterday.

Its very encouraging and shows that the restrictions and changes in behaviour are working. I have a couple of worries. People are behaving better, but not perfectly (we are Aussies) and I dont think we can get that multiplier down to 1 based on restrictions alone, so what does that mean? We get to a low multiplier (growth rate) and stay indoors?

I also worry that if we get teh growth rate low enough people will say "screw this" and go back to normal life and rates will bounce back up.

Anyway, so far so good. For those playing along, to keep it at 1.06 we need to keep the total to under 4523. At the time of posting (9:30) it was already 4364.




Another update. Yesterday stayed pretty steady with exponential multiplier of 1.06. I can see some merit in Mikes comment about reduced testing however. TO stay steady at 1.06 we need todays cases to stay below 4830. We are at 4711 already at 9am.




Todays update. Yesterday was steady, very steady unfortunately. After an encouraging dip in the exponential multiplier, we have now had three days steady at 1.6.

Hoping the stricter measures start to wash through and we are not stuck here.

Need to keep total cases under 5150 today.



1.6 or 1.06 sorry? Maybe I misread?

Edit: I did misread. It's 1.6, the graph should be 1.5 not 1.05, that's where I got confused
Second Edit: No, I am wrong again. The graph is right, it's 1.06

No you are right, I screwed up, its 1.06. We are doomed at 1.6. Well spotted, thanks.

 

[Cultured_Bogan]

I’m having difficulty in understanding social distancing rules? It seems ok to stand in a queue to vote but a funeral must be limited to 10 mourners. It seems ok for hairdressers to continue to work, but beaches must be closed because the bathers are getting too close?
Has this pandemic shown us how ineffective our political system is ? Or are we just lacking leadership? I can understand why we need to take advice from WHO , but we always seem to be behind the pace? Russia closed its borders, and started contact tracing, in January. I’m not suggesting Russia is a model to follow or a country I would like to live in , merely pointing to decisive leadership.


Not having a go at you, nor am I necessarily defending the Govt or leadership, but what exactly do you think they should do? Are you suggesting a full lockdown?

Seems that most people are screaming that the Govt "should do more!!!" but I think it seems to be a lot of people who would not vote Libs in any situation.

Personally, I dont want the Govt to do more, or do less. I want them to take the advice of ALL the experts available to them to chart a course that navigates the tricky path of minimising deaths, ensuring our health system is not overwhelmed yet maintaining the maximum economic heartbeat possible.

Of course the natural reaction is to think to stop everything, shut down everything in total lockdown, and it may come to that and be necessary if it looks like it will overwhelm the health system, and Id be all for it in those circumstances, but if it is possible to reduce the rate of spread to a point that the health system can cope, yet keep as much of the economy running, then for me that is the best path.

This may seem callous for want of a better word, but when this is over, we are going to need to climb out of it and the depth of the decline economically will have a massive impact on many peoples lives for years to come and it will be the lower socioeconomic levels hit hardest. Rich people with assets will make it through.

The natural reaction is always 1 death is too many, but we average 4500 deaths a year for influenza and we dont shut down the economy to save those deaths. I am NOT suggeting this is the same as the flu, its not and if we did nothing there would be more than 10 x that number dead, but there does need to be a balance between possibility of deaths and possibility of economic depression.


5150, I’m not having a go at you either and I’m not wanting to get into a any pee high club discussion.
Just pointing out my observation that we always appear to be a country which follows, rather than one which gets on the front foot instinctively and decisively does what’s best for Australia and it’s citizens. There was a time when citizenship meant something. Anyway, cheer on your club if you like, but it doesn’t explain the failings in our political system.
Here’s an example..
https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/6698458/hairdressers-call-for-clear-messaging-directive-to-close-from-government/


Mate I dont necessarily disagree with you and I am **definitely** not wanting to get into a club discussion, in fact I dont actually feel like I have a club in this discussion, definitely not one Im cheering on.

Part of what prompted me to respond to your post was listening to discussions about what is going on in the UK. Their strategy is a bit different to what is going on in Italy & US and to a great extent appears to be a lot more successful. Their strategy is not based on auto lock down but involves lock down when required.

Im not sure what you are specifically referring to when you say the Govt which follows, particularly when we were the second country to shut borders to China, Iran & Italy. It is entirely possible that the strategy that the Aus Govt is following, on the advice of their experts, is entirely intentional and what is happening is EXACTLY what they are trying to do, but merely is different to the instinctive reaction of the general population, who aren't aware of the advice they are getting from the expertise.


Obviously not everyone is listening to the same experts.
I don’t have a problem with the governments staggered approach, although the downside is they need to wait 14 days to see what’s working. It was usually the approach I’ve taken, whether in business or with my health. If we follow the Shorten / Albo approach which is ‘throw the kitchen sink at it and hope for the best, then if it doesn’t work it’s harder to find out why. Or if it does work we can only speculate which remedy was more effective. I don’t know if the enormity of our problem is registering with some. I’ve heard from Doc the damage the virus causes to the lungs is irreparable.

It is hard to argue with the measures so far when the data is starting to turn for us, we know have to see if we need to make more restrictions to get it turn enough!


I was not going to post this for a few days to see how it panned out, but what you are saying correlates well with it. Four days ago the exponential rate of growth dropped markedly from a steady 1.23 - 1.25 down to 1.13. But since then it seems to have instantly found a new steady level with four days 1.13, 1.15, 1.13, 1.14. Hoping it drops again but if it stays there, more measures might be needed.



Well a couple of people wanted an update so here we are.....

Yesterday there was a significant dip in the exponential growth multiplier. It dipped down from a steady 1.3 for a few days, down below 1.1 to 1.09. This is pretty significant as it may be the second round of restrictions washing through. For those playing along at home, to be steady at 1.1 we need less that 4382 cases by the end of today.



This is obviously encouraging as slowing it down is obviously a good thing, but how does this end? At what point do we start thinking about re-opening the economy (Im not suggesting soon)?

I could imagine a scenario where parts of the local economy are reopened, but with disasters all over the world (US and parts of Europe), once its under control here I can see our borders closed for a LONG time.


Ok so something is definitely happening and so far it looks good. Another big dip yesterday in the exponential growth multiplier . It was steady at 1.23 for weeks, then spent four days at 1.13 and has spent the last two days going down. 1.09 Sunday and 1.06 yesterday.

Its very encouraging and shows that the restrictions and changes in behaviour are working. I have a couple of worries. People are behaving better, but not perfectly (we are Aussies) and I dont think we can get that multiplier down to 1 based on restrictions alone, so what does that mean? We get to a low multiplier (growth rate) and stay indoors?

I also worry that if we get teh growth rate low enough people will say "screw this" and go back to normal life and rates will bounce back up.

Anyway, so far so good. For those playing along, to keep it at 1.06 we need to keep the total to under 4523. At the time of posting (9:30) it was already 4364.




Another update. Yesterday stayed pretty steady with exponential multiplier of 1.06. I can see some merit in Mikes comment about reduced testing however. TO stay steady at 1.06 we need todays cases to stay below 4830. We are at 4711 already at 9am.




Todays update. Yesterday was steady, very steady unfortunately. After an encouraging dip in the exponential multiplier, we have now had three days steady at 1.6.

Hoping the stricter measures start to wash through and we are not stuck here.

Need to keep total cases under 5150 today.



So as it stands the day on day case growth rate is sitting at 6% of the total cases from the day previous?


Yes you are right, I just edited my typo,

Yeah I figured it was haha.

Still grim reading though, if the figure of 5150 stays as is today, in 14 days we will still have 10984 cases by my reckoning. If I extrapolate that from the active cases from worldometer at the moment where there are 50 considered seriously ill at the moment, that will come out to be 160 seriously ill and 71 deaths based on 6% exponential growth in relation to total cases (if my maths is correct of course.) We'd be looking at roughly 1106 recovered too which I guess is a positive.

We will know for sure by then whether the restrictions have had a marked effect, especially with the heavy handed fines that will have been announced.

 

[Cairnstigers]

I honestly wouldn't touch any sort of take away or home delivery with a 1.5m pole...

Yes there are risks in going to the supermaket to get the essentials but at least you control your own destiny...

Well no you don't. The box of cereal/jar of vegemite/pack of **snags** etc you pick up could have had someone else **fondling it**. You have to hope you disinfect your basket/trolley well enough to not contract anything, you have you hope the person you are walking past in the aisle hasn't just sneezed/coughed further up the aisle for you to breathe in their aerosolised fluids as supermarkets are not covered by social distancing rules even though they try to apply them where possible. You have to hope the conveyor belts are washed down, the staff are regularly washing their hands. So many more variables rather than talking into a speaker box and having someone **who is wearing gloves** hand you your goods.

Mate
I would like to know who goes to the supermarket to fondle sausages (snags) while wearing a glove
Apart from those in Gladstone

 

[Cultured_Bogan]

I honestly wouldn't touch any sort of take away or home delivery with a 1.5m pole...

Yes there are risks in going to the supermaket to get the essentials but at least you control your own destiny...

Well no you don't. The box of cereal/jar of vegemite/pack of **snags** etc you pick up could have had someone else **fondling it**. You have to hope you disinfect your basket/trolley well enough to not contract anything, you have you hope the person you are walking past in the aisle hasn't just sneezed/coughed further up the aisle for you to breathe in their aerosolised fluids as supermarkets are not covered by social distancing rules even though they try to apply them where possible. You have to hope the conveyor belts are washed down, the staff are regularly washing their hands. So many more variables rather than talking into a speaker box and having someone **who is wearing gloves** hand you your goods.

Mate
I would like to know who goes to the supermarket to fondle sausages (snags) while wearing a glove
Apart from those in Gladstone

Mate you've gone to big lengths to stretch a joke out of that haha...

 

[TrueTiger]

I honestly wouldn't touch any sort of take away or home delivery with a 1.5m pole...

Yes there are risks in going to the supermaket to get the essentials but at least you control your own destiny...

Well no you don't. The box of cereal/jar of vegemite/pack of **snags** etc you pick up could have had someone else **fondling it**. You have to hope you disinfect your basket/trolley well enough to not contract anything, you have you hope the person you are walking past in the aisle hasn't just sneezed/coughed further up the aisle for you to breathe in their aerosolised fluids as supermarkets are not covered by social distancing rules even though they try to apply them where possible. You have to hope the conveyor belts are washed down, the staff are regularly washing their hands. So many more variables rather than talking into a speaker box and having someone **who is wearing gloves** hand you your goods.

Mate
I would like to know who goes to the supermarket to fondle sausages (snags) while wearing a glove
Apart from those in Gladstone

I think he means the production of the said snags...before they are prepackaged..
I think your also right that there is a lot of sausage fondling up Gladstone way...its the norm for them..

 

[happy_tiger]

I honestly wouldn't touch any sort of take away or home delivery with a 1.5m pole...

Yes there are risks in going to the supermaket to get the essentials but at least you control your own destiny...

Well no you don't. The box of cereal/jar of vegemite/pack of **snags** etc you pick up could have had someone else **fondling it**. You have to hope you disinfect your basket/trolley well enough to not contract anything, you have you hope the person you are walking past in the aisle hasn't just sneezed/coughed further up the aisle for you to breathe in their aerosolised fluids as supermarkets are not covered by social distancing rules even though they try to apply them where possible. You have to hope the conveyor belts are washed down, the staff are regularly washing their hands. So many more variables rather than talking into a speaker box and having someone **who is wearing gloves** hand you your goods.

Mate
I would like to know who goes to the supermarket to fondle sausages (snags) while wearing a glove
Apart from those in Gladstone

Mate you've gone to big lengths to stretch a joke out of that haha...

We've just had our first case yesterday ...but I think they are in lockdown in a Brisbane Hotel ...hoping it's not a family I know who are expected from the Phillipines around this time

 

[happy_tiger]

I honestly wouldn't touch any sort of take away or home delivery with a 1.5m pole...

Yes there are risks in going to the supermaket to get the essentials but at least you control your own destiny...

Well no you don't. The box of cereal/jar of vegemite/pack of **snags** etc you pick up could have had someone else **fondling it**. You have to hope you disinfect your basket/trolley well enough to not contract anything, you have you hope the person you are walking past in the aisle hasn't just sneezed/coughed further up the aisle for you to breathe in their aerosolised fluids as supermarkets are not covered by social distancing rules even though they try to apply them where possible. You have to hope the conveyor belts are washed down, the staff are regularly washing their hands. So many more variables rather than talking into a speaker box and having someone **who is wearing gloves** hand you your goods.

Mate
I would like to know who goes to the supermarket to fondle sausages (snags) while wearing a glove
Apart from those in Gladstone

I think he means the production of the said snags...before they are prepackaged..
I think your also right that there is a lot of sausage fondling up Gladstone way...its the norm for them..

At least we have sausages ...not like you ken dolls plastic mound types

 

[TheDaBoss]

Apparently the Ban on NSW will be lifted in 90 Days

thats to long

 

[dazza65]

Apparently the Ban on NSW will be lifted in 90 Days

thats to long

with the amount of people not complying its too short....

 

[twentyforty]

‪If tens of thousands of people die each year of the flu each year can someone explain why we have closed have the country stuffed our economy and walking around with tin foils on our head for the corona virus? ‬

Because we learn from past experience tony.
The 2009 swine flu pandemic was caused by a new strain of H1N1 that originated in Mexico in the spring of 2009 before spreading to the rest of the world. In one year, the virus infected as many as 1.4 billion people across the globe and killed between 151,700 and 575,400 people, according to the CDC. If you had a much more deadly virus at your doorstep with the knowledge of how it would play out if you did nothing, wouldn’t you want to at least try to save some people? I mean knowing that you could?

 

[jirskyr]

I’m having difficulty in understanding social distancing rules? It seems ok to stand in a queue to vote but a funeral must be limited to 10 mourners. It seems ok for hairdressers to continue to work, but beaches must be closed because the bathers are getting too close?
Has this pandemic shown us how ineffective our political system is ? Or are we just lacking leadership? I can understand why we need to take advice from WHO , but we always seem to be behind the pace? Russia closed its borders, and started contact tracing, in January. I’m not suggesting Russia is a model to follow or a country I would like to live in , merely pointing to decisive leadership.


Not having a go at you, nor am I necessarily defending the Govt or leadership, but what exactly do you think they should do? Are you suggesting a full lockdown?

Seems that most people are screaming that the Govt "should do more!!!" but I think it seems to be a lot of people who would not vote Libs in any situation.

Personally, I dont want the Govt to do more, or do less. I want them to take the advice of ALL the experts available to them to chart a course that navigates the tricky path of minimising deaths, ensuring our health system is not overwhelmed yet maintaining the maximum economic heartbeat possible.

Of course the natural reaction is to think to stop everything, shut down everything in total lockdown, and it may come to that and be necessary if it looks like it will overwhelm the health system, and Id be all for it in those circumstances, but if it is possible to reduce the rate of spread to a point that the health system can cope, yet keep as much of the economy running, then for me that is the best path.

This may seem callous for want of a better word, but when this is over, we are going to need to climb out of it and the depth of the decline economically will have a massive impact on many peoples lives for years to come and it will be the lower socioeconomic levels hit hardest. Rich people with assets will make it through.

The natural reaction is always 1 death is too many, but we average 4500 deaths a year for influenza and we dont shut down the economy to save those deaths. I am NOT suggeting this is the same as the flu, its not and if we did nothing there would be more than 10 x that number dead, but there does need to be a balance between possibility of deaths and possibility of economic depression.


5150, I’m not having a go at you either and I’m not wanting to get into a any pee high club discussion.
Just pointing out my observation that we always appear to be a country which follows, rather than one which gets on the front foot instinctively and decisively does what’s best for Australia and it’s citizens. There was a time when citizenship meant something. Anyway, cheer on your club if you like, but it doesn’t explain the failings in our political system.
Here’s an example..
https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/6698458/hairdressers-call-for-clear-messaging-directive-to-close-from-government/


Mate I dont necessarily disagree with you and I am **definitely** not wanting to get into a club discussion, in fact I dont actually feel like I have a club in this discussion, definitely not one Im cheering on.

Part of what prompted me to respond to your post was listening to discussions about what is going on in the UK. Their strategy is a bit different to what is going on in Italy & US and to a great extent appears to be a lot more successful. Their strategy is not based on auto lock down but involves lock down when required.

Im not sure what you are specifically referring to when you say the Govt which follows, particularly when we were the second country to shut borders to China, Iran & Italy. It is entirely possible that the strategy that the Aus Govt is following, on the advice of their experts, is entirely intentional and what is happening is EXACTLY what they are trying to do, but merely is different to the instinctive reaction of the general population, who aren't aware of the advice they are getting from the expertise.


Obviously not everyone is listening to the same experts.
I don’t have a problem with the governments staggered approach, although the downside is they need to wait 14 days to see what’s working. It was usually the approach I’ve taken, whether in business or with my health. If we follow the Shorten / Albo approach which is ‘throw the kitchen sink at it and hope for the best, then if it doesn’t work it’s harder to find out why. Or if it does work we can only speculate which remedy was more effective. I don’t know if the enormity of our problem is registering with some. I’ve heard from Doc the damage the virus causes to the lungs is irreparable.

It is hard to argue with the measures so far when the data is starting to turn for us, we know have to see if we need to make more restrictions to get it turn enough!


I was not going to post this for a few days to see how it panned out, but what you are saying correlates well with it. Four days ago the exponential rate of growth dropped markedly from a steady 1.23 - 1.25 down to 1.13. But since then it seems to have instantly found a new steady level with four days 1.13, 1.15, 1.13, 1.14. Hoping it drops again but if it stays there, more measures might be needed.



Well a couple of people wanted an update so here we are.....

Yesterday there was a significant dip in the exponential growth multiplier. It dipped down from a steady 1.3 for a few days, down below 1.1 to 1.09. This is pretty significant as it may be the second round of restrictions washing through. For those playing along at home, to be steady at 1.1 we need less that 4382 cases by the end of today.



This is obviously encouraging as slowing it down is obviously a good thing, but how does this end? At what point do we start thinking about re-opening the economy (Im not suggesting soon)?

I could imagine a scenario where parts of the local economy are reopened, but with disasters all over the world (US and parts of Europe), once its under control here I can see our borders closed for a LONG time.

Are you actually Juro? This all looks rather like Juro's curve.

 

[pawsandclaws1]

Apparently the Ban on NSW will be lifted in 90 Days

thats to long

With the carnage occurring in the US and UK, the population will be clamouring for an extension and for law breakers to do penal servitude-hard labour.

In big news, the Border Meister is not only going after hardcore toilet paper hoarders but syndicates storing PPE and other medical supplies. Meanwhile Commissioner Fuller deals with the 9 cruise liners sitting off the coast.![alt text.

 

[happy_tiger]

I’m having difficulty in understanding social distancing rules? It seems ok to stand in a queue to vote but a funeral must be limited to 10 mourners. It seems ok for hairdressers to continue to work, but beaches must be closed because the bathers are getting too close?
Has this pandemic shown us how ineffective our political system is ? Or are we just lacking leadership? I can understand why we need to take advice from WHO , but we always seem to be behind the pace? Russia closed its borders, and started contact tracing, in January. I’m not suggesting Russia is a model to follow or a country I would like to live in , merely pointing to decisive leadership.


Not having a go at you, nor am I necessarily defending the Govt or leadership, but what exactly do you think they should do? Are you suggesting a full lockdown?

Seems that most people are screaming that the Govt "should do more!!!" but I think it seems to be a lot of people who would not vote Libs in any situation.

Personally, I dont want the Govt to do more, or do less. I want them to take the advice of ALL the experts available to them to chart a course that navigates the tricky path of minimising deaths, ensuring our health system is not overwhelmed yet maintaining the maximum economic heartbeat possible.

Of course the natural reaction is to think to stop everything, shut down everything in total lockdown, and it may come to that and be necessary if it looks like it will overwhelm the health system, and Id be all for it in those circumstances, but if it is possible to reduce the rate of spread to a point that the health system can cope, yet keep as much of the economy running, then for me that is the best path.

This may seem callous for want of a better word, but when this is over, we are going to need to climb out of it and the depth of the decline economically will have a massive impact on many peoples lives for years to come and it will be the lower socioeconomic levels hit hardest. Rich people with assets will make it through.

The natural reaction is always 1 death is too many, but we average 4500 deaths a year for influenza and we dont shut down the economy to save those deaths. I am NOT suggeting this is the same as the flu, its not and if we did nothing there would be more than 10 x that number dead, but there does need to be a balance between possibility of deaths and possibility of economic depression.


5150, I’m not having a go at you either and I’m not wanting to get into a any pee high club discussion.
Just pointing out my observation that we always appear to be a country which follows, rather than one which gets on the front foot instinctively and decisively does what’s best for Australia and it’s citizens. There was a time when citizenship meant something. Anyway, cheer on your club if you like, but it doesn’t explain the failings in our political system.
Here’s an example..
https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/6698458/hairdressers-call-for-clear-messaging-directive-to-close-from-government/


Mate I dont necessarily disagree with you and I am **definitely** not wanting to get into a club discussion, in fact I dont actually feel like I have a club in this discussion, definitely not one Im cheering on.

Part of what prompted me to respond to your post was listening to discussions about what is going on in the UK. Their strategy is a bit different to what is going on in Italy & US and to a great extent appears to be a lot more successful. Their strategy is not based on auto lock down but involves lock down when required.

Im not sure what you are specifically referring to when you say the Govt which follows, particularly when we were the second country to shut borders to China, Iran & Italy. It is entirely possible that the strategy that the Aus Govt is following, on the advice of their experts, is entirely intentional and what is happening is EXACTLY what they are trying to do, but merely is different to the instinctive reaction of the general population, who aren't aware of the advice they are getting from the expertise.


Obviously not everyone is listening to the same experts.
I don’t have a problem with the governments staggered approach, although the downside is they need to wait 14 days to see what’s working. It was usually the approach I’ve taken, whether in business or with my health. If we follow the Shorten / Albo approach which is ‘throw the kitchen sink at it and hope for the best, then if it doesn’t work it’s harder to find out why. Or if it does work we can only speculate which remedy was more effective. I don’t know if the enormity of our problem is registering with some. I’ve heard from Doc the damage the virus causes to the lungs is irreparable.

It is hard to argue with the measures so far when the data is starting to turn for us, we know have to see if we need to make more restrictions to get it turn enough!


I was not going to post this for a few days to see how it panned out, but what you are saying correlates well with it. Four days ago the exponential rate of growth dropped markedly from a steady 1.23 - 1.25 down to 1.13. But since then it seems to have instantly found a new steady level with four days 1.13, 1.15, 1.13, 1.14. Hoping it drops again but if it stays there, more measures might be needed.



Well a couple of people wanted an update so here we are.....

Yesterday there was a significant dip in the exponential growth multiplier. It dipped down from a steady 1.3 for a few days, down below 1.1 to 1.09. This is pretty significant as it may be the second round of restrictions washing through. For those playing along at home, to be steady at 1.1 we need less that 4382 cases by the end of today.



This is obviously encouraging as slowing it down is obviously a good thing, but how does this end? At what point do we start thinking about re-opening the economy (Im not suggesting soon)?

I could imagine a scenario where parts of the local economy are reopened, but with disasters all over the world (US and parts of Europe), once its under control here I can see our borders closed for a LONG time.

Are you actually Juro? This all looks rather like Juro's curve.

If we finish 9th as a country we will know then ...then again 9th as a country will be an absolute catastrophe ...lets pray for the wooden spoon

 

[Cairnstigers]

I honestly wouldn't touch any sort of take away or home delivery with a 1.5m pole...

Yes there are risks in going to the supermaket to get the essentials but at least you control your own destiny...

Well no you don't. The box of cereal/jar of vegemite/pack of **snags** etc you pick up could have had someone else **fondling it**. You have to hope you disinfect your basket/trolley well enough to not contract anything, you have you hope the person you are walking past in the aisle hasn't just sneezed/coughed further up the aisle for you to breathe in their aerosolised fluids as supermarkets are not covered by social distancing rules even though they try to apply them where possible. You have to hope the conveyor belts are washed down, the staff are regularly washing their hands. So many more variables rather than talking into a speaker box and having someone **who is wearing gloves** hand you your goods.

Mate
I would like to know who goes to the supermarket to fondle sausages (snags) while wearing a glove
Apart from those in Gladstone

I think he means the production of the said snags...before they are prepackaged..
I think your also right that there is a lot of sausage fondling up Gladstone way...its the norm for them..

At least we have sausages ...not like you ken dolls plastic mound types

It's not called a sausage in Gladstone
Its called a Chipolata
There smaller in Gladstone apparently

 

[Cairnstigers]

I honestly wouldn't touch any sort of take away or home delivery with a 1.5m pole...

Yes there are risks in going to the supermaket to get the essentials but at least you control your own destiny...

Well no you don't. The box of cereal/jar of vegemite/pack of **snags** etc you pick up could have had someone else **fondling it**. You have to hope you disinfect your basket/trolley well enough to not contract anything, you have you hope the person you are walking past in the aisle hasn't just sneezed/coughed further up the aisle for you to breathe in their aerosolised fluids as supermarkets are not covered by social distancing rules even though they try to apply them where possible. You have to hope the conveyor belts are washed down, the staff are regularly washing their hands. So many more variables rather than talking into a speaker box and having someone **who is wearing gloves** hand you your goods.

Mate
I would like to know who goes to the supermarket to fondle sausages (snags) while wearing a glove
Apart from those in Gladstone

I think he means the production of the said snags...before they are prepackaged..
I think your also right that there is a lot of sausage fondling up Gladstone way...its the norm for them..

At least we have sausages ...not like you ken dolls plastic mound types

It's not called a sausage in Gladstone
Its called a Chipolata
There smaller in Gladstone apparently

Sorry move to jokes please

 

[happy_tiger]

Mrs was saying that Twiggy Forest has imported 10's of millions of $$$ of supplies

The bloke is legend ...

 

[TrueTiger]

I honestly wouldn't touch any sort of take away or home delivery with a 1.5m pole...

Yes there are risks in going to the supermaket to get the essentials but at least you control your own destiny...

Well no you don't. The box of cereal/jar of vegemite/pack of **snags** etc you pick up could have had someone else **fondling it**. You have to hope you disinfect your basket/trolley well enough to not contract anything, you have you hope the person you are walking past in the aisle hasn't just sneezed/coughed further up the aisle for you to breathe in their aerosolised fluids as supermarkets are not covered by social distancing rules even though they try to apply them where possible. You have to hope the conveyor belts are washed down, the staff are regularly washing their hands. So many more variables rather than talking into a speaker box and having someone **who is wearing gloves** hand you your goods.

Mate
I would like to know who goes to the supermarket to fondle sausages (snags) while wearing a glove
Apart from those in Gladstone

I think he means the production of the said snags...before they are prepackaged..
I think your also right that there is a lot of sausage fondling up Gladstone way...its the norm for them..

At least we have sausages ...not like you ken dolls plastic mound types

Come on mate I was just going off old mate CT,he should know whats going on because he is in Qld albeit a different area,but still in Qld..
plastic is ok as long as you wipe it like a remote control or keyboard..

 

[happy_tiger]

I honestly wouldn't touch any sort of take away or home delivery with a 1.5m pole...

Yes there are risks in going to the supermaket to get the essentials but at least you control your own destiny...

Well no you don't. The box of cereal/jar of vegemite/pack of **snags** etc you pick up could have had someone else **fondling it**. You have to hope you disinfect your basket/trolley well enough to not contract anything, you have you hope the person you are walking past in the aisle hasn't just sneezed/coughed further up the aisle for you to breathe in their aerosolised fluids as supermarkets are not covered by social distancing rules even though they try to apply them where possible. You have to hope the conveyor belts are washed down, the staff are regularly washing their hands. So many more variables rather than talking into a speaker box and having someone **who is wearing gloves** hand you your goods.

Mate
I would like to know who goes to the supermarket to fondle sausages (snags) while wearing a glove
Apart from those in Gladstone

I think he means the production of the said snags...before they are prepackaged..
I think your also right that there is a lot of sausage fondling up Gladstone way...its the norm for them..

At least we have sausages ...not like you ken dolls plastic mound types

It's not called a sausage in Gladstone
Its called a Chipolata
There smaller in Gladstone apparently

Sorry move to jokes please

Repeat after me Kabana .....tastes good with dip , crackers and cheese lol

 

[hobbo1]

It is a disgrace what some multinationals are pulling .....

The one I work for has worked out if they fully apply the 1.5 m rule they can save money in labour , yet they don't have issues with employees still handling cash and don't think gloves or masks are required or eftpos machines don't have the disposable covers /sheaths

Got to love how some Coronavirus rules are important ...others meh ....just keep trading

Maccas now selling burger buns / English muffins and 2 litre milk through the drive through ...anything to make a buck .
Friggin parasites !

I'm genuinely interested why you think this makes them parasites?

We’ll how about they donate $1 for every quarter pounder sold for Covid research or something like that instead of profiteering during a pandemic.

And I very much doubt they’re trying to offload excess stock .

 

[Cultured_Bogan]

It is a disgrace what some multinationals are pulling .....

The one I work for has worked out if they fully apply the 1.5 m rule they can save money in labour , yet they don't have issues with employees still handling cash and don't think gloves or masks are required or eftpos machines don't have the disposable covers /sheaths

Got to love how some Coronavirus rules are important ...others meh ....just keep trading

Maccas now selling burger buns / English muffins and 2 litre milk through the drive through ...anything to make a buck .
Friggin parasites !

I'm genuinely interested why you think this makes them parasites?

We’ll how about they donate $1 for every quarter pounder sold for Covid research or something like that instead of profiteering during a pandemic.

And I very much doubt they’re trying to offload excess stock .

They're keeping people in jobs, youth especially.

I think that's enough for the time being.