Coronavirus Outbreak

[Tiger5150]

@Hangonaminute

Mate I can follow your logic, that if the tests arent 100% accurate, how do you know how bad it is, but when do you look at all the other evidence.

When this first kicked off, I thought it was a massive beat up and that the media were just sensationalising and catastrophising it in order to get as many clicks as they could (I pretty much agree with your opinion of the media). It didnt make sense to me the numbers that they were quoting in China and death rates etc. To me something didnt make sense. The numbers of people getting sick, dying etc didnt line up with what else we were being told about the virus.

In the early days, when we had less than 100 cases, I started tracking case numbers here in Australia and comparing to what was going on in the rest of the world. In the first week again it didnt make sense to me because my projection was for 10's of thousands of cases in Aus VERY quickly. I simply thought that there was no way this could be true because if it was it would mean devastation in other more populous parts of the world before us and there wasnt any.

Until there was. When Iran & Italy started their explosion it followed the same exponential curve that I had forecast for Australia and it was then that it made sense to me and I started to feel more concerned that it was real and it was going to have serious repercussions for the whole world. Ever since then the data that has been provided and the way in correlates to deaths and hospitalisation has been entirely consistent. Whilst there is always going to be discrepancies in the test results the weight of evidence points to this being real and not some media beat up.

Do you think that the measures put in place are going to cause more damage than the virus itself?

It depends on how long it takes to get over it. If we are able to start getting back to life in the next 6-8 weeks no. The length of time that it takes to restart the economy properly depends entirely on the strength and public adherence to the social distancing measures. If its half arsed, it will drag on forever and then the economic damage will take long time to recover from.

Need to compare to the cost of not putting these measures in place. At the rate of spread prior to the measures put in place (23%) we would be at 118000 cases today and would have hit 10M cases in 3 weeks from now. That would have related to 100,000 dead without taking into consideration the fact that our hospitals would be completely overrun, so probably closer to 200,000 dead. Now THAT would take some getting over.

Without the measures in place, this virus will only stop once we have herd immunity or a vaccine is available. Herd immunity for this virus is estimated at 60% of population so 15M people. Without the measures we would have been there by mid May so a vaccine would be no use and again, it would be at a cost of more than 200000 dead.

 

[cochise]

@Hangonaminute

Mate I can follow your logic, that if the tests arent 100% accurate, how do you know how bad it is, but when do you look at all the other evidence.

When this first kicked off, I thought it was a massive beat up and that the media were just sensationalising and catastrophising it in order to get as many clicks as they could (I pretty much agree with your opinion of the media). It didnt make sense to me the numbers that they were quoting in China and death rates etc. To me something didnt make sense. The numbers of people getting sick, dying etc didnt line up with what else we were being told about the virus.

In the early days, when we had less than 100 cases, I started tracking case numbers here in Australia and comparing to what was going on in the rest of the world. In the first week again it didnt make sense to me because my projection was for 10's of thousands of cases in Aus VERY quickly. I simply thought that there was no way this could be true because if it was it would mean devastation in other more populous parts of the world before us and there wasnt any.

Until there was. When Iran & Italy started their explosion it followed the same exponential curve that I had forecast for Australia and it was then that it made sense to me and I started to feel more concerned that it was real and it was going to have serious repercussions for the whole world. Ever since then the data that has been provided and the way in correlates to deaths and hospitalisation has been entirely consistent. Whilst there is always going to be discrepancies in the test results the weight of evidence points to this being real and not some media beat up.

Do you think that the measures put in place are going to cause more damage than the virus itself?


It depends on how long it takes to get over it. If we are able to start getting back to life in the next 6-8 weeks no. The length of time that it takes to restart the economy properly depends entirely on the strength and public adherence to the social distancing measures. If its half arsed, it will drag on forever and then the economic damage will take long time to recover from.

Need to compare to the cost of not putting these measures in place. At the rate of spread prior to the measures put in place (23%) we would be at 118000 cases today and would have hit 10M cases in 3 weeks from now. That would have related to 100,000 dead without taking into consideration the fact that our hospitals would be completely overrun, so probably closer to 200,000 dead. Now THAT would take some getting over.

You have to remember though that those numbers are not accurate though ;p

 

[JD Tiger]

Don't get caught up on numbers, we already know that the false positive test rate and false negative rates are outrageous so I really don't know how or where they're getting these numbers from because we have no accurate way of testing for it.

But the public love numbers, so they just give us numbers, highly inaccurate numbers and fancy graphs to satisfy the mindless morons.

"Hurry up Karen, the public need to see another graph, don't worry if it's not accurate they don't know anyway, they only know what we put on the graph, they'll believe whatever you put on there, we just need to show them lines and numbers"


Of course I dont think and I dont think anyone here thinks these numbers are definitive but based on the high number of testing carried out in Australia and the consistency of the data correlated against itself and also against hard figures that ARE definitive such as hospital admissions and deaths, the numbers are a good representation of whats going on.

False negatives or positives dont matter once people start arriving in Hospitals.

You cant see any value in comparisons of the data from Mid March to today?

I don't see any value in this whole thing, this whole thing has been a total overreaction the two doctors who started this whole "social isolation" thing have come out already and said their computer models were all wrong and their estimate of total number of deaths is going to be less than half predicted which is as many as a normal flu season

The prevention has and will cause more deaths and disruption to our lives than the virus itself.
They'll just be slower.

Are you going to stay inside until we get an effective vaccine for the flu, malaria, tuberculosis, or parasites like Chagas, elephantiasis, hookworm or liver flukes?

What about Nipah, Lassa or M.E respitory syndrome?

Lyme, West Nile, Zika, Hepatitis C?

What about respitory syncytial virus?

Shit, I bet you haven't even heard of half of these, you'll never go outside again.

You haven't seen the mass graves in New York? Or the nearly 10000 deaths in New York already?

Yes I have, but what I haven't seen is an accurate way to determine how many were actually caused by covid19.

I also haven't seen the whole world shut down due to all the other things I listed, which have the potential to kill as many if not more than covid19.

The media has duped the masses again

By "the masses" you mean the scientific community and all of the world leaders and their governments who have led the response to the virus? But not you, no you're too clever for that, you can see that this whole thing is being driven by the media for the clear agenda of selling more newspapers or something...

No, by "The masses"
I mean the brain dead zombies that believe everything that they hear on their idiot box.

Got a question for you to think about, how many times throughout history do we later find out that the narrative that at the time was being presented as the truth was actually wrong or intentionally misleading?

As for listening to the GOVERNMENT
Let's look at what the word means, let's break it down.
The word 'Govern' is from the Latin verb Guverno, Guvernare which means "To control"
The word 'Ment' is a Latin noun Mens, Mentis which means "Mind"
= Mind Control

So keep listening to your Government tell you what to do through your idiot box


Ok so its the government doing this to "control the masses"? Seriously?

Lets look at this closer. In the US, you have an incumbent President, who is a filthy capitalist, seeking re-election in a vote THIS year, planning his whole strategy for re-election on a booming economy and he thought to himself..."I know what would seal the deal....if I make everyone stay inside and completely grind the economy into the ground...that'll work"

and in Australia, a conservative government, about to post a budget surplus ...."this is too easy, lets set a challenge and try to get unemployment up over 25%"

I am genuinely interested in what you think the government stands to gain in doing this?

How long have you got

Post it, what does it matter to you how long they have to read it. Someone may read it, I may depending on how long it is (if it's 10 pages worth of writing well then no).

 

[momo_amp_medo]

Guys ...... your just pumping up his tyres.

 

[Hangonaminute]

I see Victoria is declaring a State of Emergency and extending the lockdown for another 4 weeks..
even though new cases are down...

Are we going to stay inside until we get an effective vaccine for the flu, malaria, tuberculosis, or parasites like Chagas, elephantiasis, hookworm or liver flukes?

What about Nipah, Lassa or M.E respitory syndrome?

Lyme, West Nile, Zika, Hepatitis C?

What about respitory syncytial virus?

Shit, I bet most people haven't even heard of half of these, you'll never go outside again.


none of them other than the Flu or Hep C are in Australia. Hep C has a cure. The Flu had a case mortality rate in Australia of 0.2%, COVID is 5 x higher at 1%.

What is your point and what are you suggesting?

How are you getting 1% when we don't have an accurate test for it?

 

[Hangonaminute]

Don't get caught up on numbers, we already know that the false positive test rate and false negative rates are outrageous so I really don't know how or where they're getting these numbers from because we have no accurate way of testing for it.

But the public love numbers, so they just give us numbers, highly inaccurate numbers and fancy graphs to satisfy the mindless morons.

"Hurry up Karen, the public need to see another graph, don't worry if it's not accurate they don't know anyway, they only know what we put on the graph, they'll believe whatever you put on there, we just need to show them lines and numbers"


Of course I dont think and I dont think anyone here thinks these numbers are definitive but based on the high number of testing carried out in Australia and the consistency of the data correlated against itself and also against hard figures that ARE definitive such as hospital admissions and deaths, the numbers are a good representation of whats going on.

False negatives or positives dont matter once people start arriving in Hospitals.

You cant see any value in comparisons of the data from Mid March to today?

I don't see any value in this whole thing, this whole thing has been a total overreaction the two doctors who started this whole "social isolation" thing have come out already and said their computer models were all wrong and their estimate of total number of deaths is going to be less than half predicted which is as many as a normal flu season

The prevention has and will cause more deaths and disruption to our lives than the virus itself.
They'll just be slower.

Are you going to stay inside until we get an effective vaccine for the flu, malaria, tuberculosis, or parasites like Chagas, elephantiasis, hookworm or liver flukes?

What about Nipah, Lassa or M.E respitory syndrome?

Lyme, West Nile, Zika, Hepatitis C?

What about respitory syncytial virus?

Shit, I bet you haven't even heard of half of these, you'll never go outside again.

You haven't seen the mass graves in New York? Or the nearly 10000 deaths in New York already?

Yes I have, but what I haven't seen is an accurate way to determine how many were actually caused by covid19.

I also haven't seen the whole world shut down due to all the other things I listed, which have the potential to kill as many if not more than covid19.

The media has duped the masses again

By "the masses" you mean the scientific community and all of the world leaders and their governments who have led the response to the virus? But not you, no you're too clever for that, you can see that this whole thing is being driven by the media for the clear agenda of selling more newspapers or something...

No, by "The masses"
I mean the brain dead zombies that believe everything that they hear on their idiot box.

Got a question for you to think about, how many times throughout history do we later find out that the narrative that at the time was being presented as the truth was actually wrong or intentionally misleading?

As for listening to the GOVERNMENT
Let's look at what the word means, let's break it down.
The word 'Govern' is from the Latin verb Guverno, Guvernare which means "To control"
The word 'Ment' is a Latin noun Mens, Mentis which means "Mind"
= Mind Control

So keep listening to your Government tell you what to do through your idiot box

So just ignore the 113000 deaths?

No, but as I said, Are you going to stay inside until we get an effective vaccine for the flu, malaria, tuberculosis, or parasites like Chagas, elephantiasis, hookworm or liver flukes?

What about Nipah, Lassa or M.E respitory syndrome?

Lyme, West Nile, Zika, Hepatitis C?

What about respitory syncytial virus?

Shit, I bet you haven't even heard of half of these, you'll never go outside again.

The cure will end up being more devastating than the virus.
Imagine if we shut the world down for any of the above, before this covid19 rubbish I bet my balls that none of the above mentioned even crossed your mind as you went about your day.
Yet now you're avoiding everyone because of this which is no more deadly than any of them.

Why? I'll tell you why, because the fear generators have controlled your mind again, but nobody wants to actually admit that they're being manipulated by the media.

I know this is a little off topic, but I have to laugh at America, the land of FREE and the home of the BRAVE!!
Yeah right, they're all locked in their houses shit scared of an invisible boogey man.

More like "the land of the caged and the home of the terrified"

So what should we do when we have 114000 dead, hospital systems overwhelmed, mass graves in New York and according to you we don't even know what is causing all this? That sounds like more of a reason for a lockdown than if we actually knew what was happening!

Why didn't the world shutdown during SARS and MERS which had a way higher mortality rate?

I'm not saying covid19 isn't deadly, but the drastic measures put in place to prevent it are going to be more devastating than the virus itself

 

[happy_tiger]

Kids are at home until 22th of May ......God help me

 

[Hangonaminute]

Only 800 tests done yesterday due to Easter compared to the usual 3000- 4000 per day.

And they're all highly inaccurate


What source do you base this opinion on?

How do you reconcile hard data such as hospital admissions and deaths against overall numbers?

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32133832/?fbclid=IwAR3LHLplRtmPZED3jt_Hjf2ZKysmDcXMU5LgVgNPcqNAtb9EzcQBKMtCIoI


Genuinely not being a smartarse, but are you used to reading scientific literature? That publication (that was made 5 weeks ago in a 3 month old virus) has been withdrawn because peer review has shown it to be based on theoretical information rather than epidemiological field data. So not a good source. In fact because it has not been based on correct field data, that may prove a higher infection rate in asymptomatic people.

So the false positive test rate is what now?


According to Swinburne University and Mayo clinic, false positives are negligible, false negatives may be up to 20%, which of course means there are more cases than reported not less.

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/australia-s-coronavirus-testing-has-expanded-but-some-negative-tests-can-be-wrong

What's "negligible"?

So you just proves my point, which is we don't have an accurate way to confirm covid19 our tests aren't accurate 20% false negative rate isn't accurate.
So how are people arriving at these numbers?

Until there's an accurate way to test for this, graphs and numbers on the news are pulled out of people's bums


No they are not. The data quoted is the minimum confirmed cases. Due to the fact that there are potentially relatively high false negatives, it is likely the confirmed cases are higher. But at least you can determine a best way forward based on these figures that it is at least this bad.

The reason for the high false negatives is not a fault with the testing, it is due to the virus itself. The tests, test for the presence of the COVID RNA. You can have COVID but the RNA is only present in your nose and throat when it is shedding (when you are infectious). This doesnt happen for the first 5 days after infection so if you get tested within 5 days of getting it, you are going to probably show up as negative, but still have it.

Yeah it's the viruses fault that they don't have an accurate test.
Are you listening to yourself?


When I type I don't actually say the words out loud but Im getting a mental picture of you listening to yourself as you type.

So no, I dont listen to myself, but I did read what I typed and I posted a pretty detailed reason why its IMPOSSIBLE to have a PCR test for RNA that tests positive for RNA when RNA isnt present due to 5 day incubation periods. But you know....biology.

Would I make the point more clearly if I continually cut and paste the same NY times article excerpt about a whole heap of diseases that dont even exist in Australia, over and over and over again. Is that how I communicate more effectively?

Not specifically talking about only Australia.

 

[Hangonaminute]

Kids are at home until 22th of May ......God help me

Not mine, they're going to school.

If you can work, you're an "essential worker"
If you have to work from home, you're an "essential worker"
You can't home school your children and work at the same time so your children can attend school.

In Qld that is, not sure about everywhere else.

 

[Hangonaminute]

Don't get caught up on numbers, we already know that the false positive test rate and false negative rates are outrageous so I really don't know how or where they're getting these numbers from because we have no accurate way of testing for it.

But the public love numbers, so they just give us numbers, highly inaccurate numbers and fancy graphs to satisfy the mindless morons.

"Hurry up Karen, the public need to see another graph, don't worry if it's not accurate they don't know anyway, they only know what we put on the graph, they'll believe whatever you put on there, we just need to show them lines and numbers"


Of course I dont think and I dont think anyone here thinks these numbers are definitive but based on the high number of testing carried out in Australia and the consistency of the data correlated against itself and also against hard figures that ARE definitive such as hospital admissions and deaths, the numbers are a good representation of whats going on.

False negatives or positives dont matter once people start arriving in Hospitals.

You cant see any value in comparisons of the data from Mid March to today?

I don't see any value in this whole thing, this whole thing has been a total overreaction the two doctors who started this whole "social isolation" thing have come out already and said their computer models were all wrong and their estimate of total number of deaths is going to be less than half predicted which is as many as a normal flu season

The prevention has and will cause more deaths and disruption to our lives than the virus itself.
They'll just be slower.

Are you going to stay inside until we get an effective vaccine for the flu, malaria, tuberculosis, or parasites like Chagas, elephantiasis, hookworm or liver flukes?

What about Nipah, Lassa or M.E respitory syndrome?

Lyme, West Nile, Zika, Hepatitis C?

What about respitory syncytial virus?

Shit, I bet you haven't even heard of half of these, you'll never go outside again.

You haven't seen the mass graves in New York? Or the nearly 10000 deaths in New York already?

Yes I have, but what I haven't seen is an accurate way to determine how many were actually caused by covid19.

I also haven't seen the whole world shut down due to all the other things I listed, which have the potential to kill as many if not more than covid19.

The media has duped the masses again

By "the masses" you mean the scientific community and all of the world leaders and their governments who have led the response to the virus? But not you, no you're too clever for that, you can see that this whole thing is being driven by the media for the clear agenda of selling more newspapers or something...

No, by "The masses"
I mean the brain dead zombies that believe everything that they hear on their idiot box.

Got a question for you to think about, how many times throughout history do we later find out that the narrative that at the time was being presented as the truth was actually wrong or intentionally misleading?

As for listening to the GOVERNMENT
Let's look at what the word means, let's break it down.
The word 'Govern' is from the Latin verb Guverno, Guvernare which means "To control"
The word 'Ment' is a Latin noun Mens, Mentis which means "Mind"
= Mind Control

So keep listening to your Government tell you what to do through your idiot box


Ok so its the government doing this to "control the masses"? Seriously?

Lets look at this closer. In the US, you have an incumbent President, who is a filthy capitalist, seeking re-election in a vote THIS year, planning his whole strategy for re-election on a booming economy and he thought to himself..."I know what would seal the deal....if I make everyone stay inside and completely grind the economy into the ground...that'll work"

and in Australia, a conservative government, about to post a budget surplus ...."this is too easy, lets set a challenge and try to get unemployment up over 25%"

I am genuinely interested in what you think the government stands to gain in doing this?

How long have you got


Give me three of your best, Im genuinely interested in how the Aus or US govt would benefit from this.

And give you the opportunity to say something about "a tin foil hat"?
I'm not that silly.

 

[Tiger5150]

I see Victoria is declaring a State of Emergency and extending the lockdown for another 4 weeks..
even though new cases are down...

Are we going to stay inside until we get an effective vaccine for the flu, malaria, tuberculosis, or parasites like Chagas, elephantiasis, hookworm or liver flukes?

What about Nipah, Lassa or M.E respitory syndrome?

Lyme, West Nile, Zika, Hepatitis C?

What about respitory syncytial virus?

Shit, I bet most people haven't even heard of half of these, you'll never go outside again.


none of them other than the Flu or Hep C are in Australia. Hep C has a cure. The Flu had a case mortality rate in Australia of 0.2%, COVID is 5 x higher at 1%.

What is your point and what are you suggesting?

How are you getting 1% when we don't have an accurate test for it?

Because its 1% of ***confirmed*** positive cases (based on Swinburne Uni & Mayo)

 

[Hangonaminute]

Don't get caught up on numbers, we already know that the false positive test rate and false negative rates are outrageous so I really don't know how or where they're getting these numbers from because we have no accurate way of testing for it.

But the public love numbers, so they just give us numbers, highly inaccurate numbers and fancy graphs to satisfy the mindless morons.

"Hurry up Karen, the public need to see another graph, don't worry if it's not accurate they don't know anyway, they only know what we put on the graph, they'll believe whatever you put on there, we just need to show them lines and numbers"


Of course I dont think and I dont think anyone here thinks these numbers are definitive but based on the high number of testing carried out in Australia and the consistency of the data correlated against itself and also against hard figures that ARE definitive such as hospital admissions and deaths, the numbers are a good representation of whats going on.

False negatives or positives dont matter once people start arriving in Hospitals.

You cant see any value in comparisons of the data from Mid March to today?

I don't see any value in this whole thing, this whole thing has been a total overreaction the two doctors who started this whole "social isolation" thing have come out already and said their computer models were all wrong and their estimate of total number of deaths is going to be less than half predicted which is as many as a normal flu season

The prevention has and will cause more deaths and disruption to our lives than the virus itself.
They'll just be slower.

Are you going to stay inside until we get an effective vaccine for the flu, malaria, tuberculosis, or parasites like Chagas, elephantiasis, hookworm or liver flukes?

What about Nipah, Lassa or M.E respitory syndrome?

Lyme, West Nile, Zika, Hepatitis C?

What about respitory syncytial virus?

Shit, I bet you haven't even heard of half of these, you'll never go outside again.

You haven't seen the mass graves in New York? Or the nearly 10000 deaths in New York already?

Yes I have, but what I haven't seen is an accurate way to determine how many were actually caused by covid19.

I also haven't seen the whole world shut down due to all the other things I listed, which have the potential to kill as many if not more than covid19.

The media has duped the masses again

By "the masses" you mean the scientific community and all of the world leaders and their governments who have led the response to the virus? But not you, no you're too clever for that, you can see that this whole thing is being driven by the media for the clear agenda of selling more newspapers or something...

No, by "The masses"
I mean the brain dead zombies that believe everything that they hear on their idiot box.

Got a question for you to think about, how many times throughout history do we later find out that the narrative that at the time was being presented as the truth was actually wrong or intentionally misleading?

As for listening to the GOVERNMENT
Let's look at what the word means, let's break it down.
The word 'Govern' is from the Latin verb Guverno, Guvernare which means "To control"
The word 'Ment' is a Latin noun Mens, Mentis which means "Mind"
= Mind Control

So keep listening to your Government tell you what to do through your idiot box

So just ignore the 113000 deaths?

No, but as I said, Are you going to stay inside until we get an effective vaccine for the flu, malaria, tuberculosis, or parasites like Chagas, elephantiasis, hookworm or liver flukes?

What about Nipah, Lassa or M.E respitory syndrome?

Lyme, West Nile, Zika, Hepatitis C?

What about respitory syncytial virus?

Shit, I bet you haven't even heard of half of these, you'll never go outside again.

The cure will end up being more devastating than the virus.
Imagine if we shut the world down for any of the above, before this covid19 rubbish I bet my balls that none of the above mentioned even crossed your mind as you went about your day.
Yet now you're avoiding everyone because of this which is no more deadly than any of them.

Why? I'll tell you why, because the fear generators have controlled your mind again, but nobody wants to actually admit that they're being manipulated by the media.

I know this is a little off topic, but I have to laugh at America, the land of FREE and the home of the BRAVE!!
Yeah right, they're all locked in their houses shit scared of an invisible boogey man.

More like "the land of the caged and the home of the terrified"

So what should we do when we have 114000 dead, hospital systems overwhelmed, mass graves in New York and according to you we don't even know what is causing all this? That sounds like more of a reason for a lockdown than if we actually knew what was happening!

Now you're twisting my words

You said American's were hiding indoors from an invisible boogey man, 22000 deaths and mass graves are not invisible. You are saying we are overreacting by closing down when we don't know the true numbers or what caused them, we know that 114000 people are dead, we know they were burying people in mass graves in New York. We have not overreacted!

I'm talking about the virus being invisible.

(please don't say we can see it through a microscope)

 

[mike]

Don't get caught up on numbers, we already know that the false positive test rate and false negative rates are outrageous so I really don't know how or where they're getting these numbers from because we have no accurate way of testing for it.

But the public love numbers, so they just give us numbers, highly inaccurate numbers and fancy graphs to satisfy the mindless morons.

"Hurry up Karen, the public need to see another graph, don't worry if it's not accurate they don't know anyway, they only know what we put on the graph, they'll believe whatever you put on there, we just need to show them lines and numbers"


Of course I dont think and I dont think anyone here thinks these numbers are definitive but based on the high number of testing carried out in Australia and the consistency of the data correlated against itself and also against hard figures that ARE definitive such as hospital admissions and deaths, the numbers are a good representation of whats going on.

False negatives or positives dont matter once people start arriving in Hospitals.

You cant see any value in comparisons of the data from Mid March to today?

I don't see any value in this whole thing, this whole thing has been a total overreaction the two doctors who started this whole "social isolation" thing have come out already and said their computer models were all wrong and their estimate of total number of deaths is going to be less than half predicted which is as many as a normal flu season

The prevention has and will cause more deaths and disruption to our lives than the virus itself.
They'll just be slower.

Are you going to stay inside until we get an effective vaccine for the flu, malaria, tuberculosis, or parasites like Chagas, elephantiasis, hookworm or liver flukes?

What about Nipah, Lassa or M.E respitory syndrome?

Lyme, West Nile, Zika, Hepatitis C?

What about respitory syncytial virus?

Shit, I bet you haven't even heard of half of these, you'll never go outside again.

You haven't seen the mass graves in New York? Or the nearly 10000 deaths in New York already?

Yes I have, but what I haven't seen is an accurate way to determine how many were actually caused by covid19.

I also haven't seen the whole world shut down due to all the other things I listed, which have the potential to kill as many if not more than covid19.

The media has duped the masses again

By "the masses" you mean the scientific community and all of the world leaders and their governments who have led the response to the virus? But not you, no you're too clever for that, you can see that this whole thing is being driven by the media for the clear agenda of selling more newspapers or something...

No, by "The masses"
I mean the brain dead zombies that believe everything that they hear on their idiot box.

Got a question for you to think about, how many times throughout history do we later find out that the narrative that at the time was being presented as the truth was actually wrong or intentionally misleading?

As for listening to the GOVERNMENT
Let's look at what the word means, let's break it down.
The word 'Govern' is from the Latin verb Guverno, Guvernare which means "To control"
The word 'Ment' is a Latin noun Mens, Mentis which means "Mind"
= Mind Control

So keep listening to your Government tell you what to do through your idiot box


Ok so its the government doing this to "control the masses"? Seriously?

Lets look at this closer. In the US, you have an incumbent President, who is a filthy capitalist, seeking re-election in a vote THIS year, planning his whole strategy for re-election on a booming economy and he thought to himself..."I know what would seal the deal....if I make everyone stay inside and completely grind the economy into the ground...that'll work"

and in Australia, a conservative government, about to post a budget surplus ...."this is too easy, lets set a challenge and try to get unemployment up over 25%"

I am genuinely interested in what you think the government stands to gain in doing this?

How long have you got


Give me three of your best, Im genuinely interested in how the Aus or US govt would benefit from this.

And give you the opportunity to say something about "a tin foil hat"?
I'm not that silly.

I think you are. Either that or extremely bored so you had to make up the ultimate conspiracy theory in the middle of a pandemic just to make yourself feel better.

 

[Hangonaminute]

I see Victoria is declaring a State of Emergency and extending the lockdown for another 4 weeks..
even though new cases are down...

Are we going to stay inside until we get an effective vaccine for the flu, malaria, tuberculosis, or parasites like Chagas, elephantiasis, hookworm or liver flukes?

What about Nipah, Lassa or M.E respitory syndrome?

Lyme, West Nile, Zika, Hepatitis C?

What about respitory syncytial virus?

Shit, I bet most people haven't even heard of half of these, you'll never go outside again.


none of them other than the Flu or Hep C are in Australia. Hep C has a cure. The Flu had a case mortality rate in Australia of 0.2%, COVID is 5 x higher at 1%.

What is your point and what are you suggesting?

How are you getting 1% when we don't have an accurate test for it?


Because its 1% of ***confirmed*** positive cases (based on Swinburne Uni & Mayo)

How did they determine 1%?

 

[Tiger5150]

Don't get caught up on numbers, we already know that the false positive test rate and false negative rates are outrageous so I really don't know how or where they're getting these numbers from because we have no accurate way of testing for it.

But the public love numbers, so they just give us numbers, highly inaccurate numbers and fancy graphs to satisfy the mindless morons.

"Hurry up Karen, the public need to see another graph, don't worry if it's not accurate they don't know anyway, they only know what we put on the graph, they'll believe whatever you put on there, we just need to show them lines and numbers"


Of course I dont think and I dont think anyone here thinks these numbers are definitive but based on the high number of testing carried out in Australia and the consistency of the data correlated against itself and also against hard figures that ARE definitive such as hospital admissions and deaths, the numbers are a good representation of whats going on.

False negatives or positives dont matter once people start arriving in Hospitals.

You cant see any value in comparisons of the data from Mid March to today?

I don't see any value in this whole thing, this whole thing has been a total overreaction the two doctors who started this whole "social isolation" thing have come out already and said their computer models were all wrong and their estimate of total number of deaths is going to be less than half predicted which is as many as a normal flu season

The prevention has and will cause more deaths and disruption to our lives than the virus itself.
They'll just be slower.

Are you going to stay inside until we get an effective vaccine for the flu, malaria, tuberculosis, or parasites like Chagas, elephantiasis, hookworm or liver flukes?

What about Nipah, Lassa or M.E respitory syndrome?

Lyme, West Nile, Zika, Hepatitis C?

What about respitory syncytial virus?

Shit, I bet you haven't even heard of half of these, you'll never go outside again.

You haven't seen the mass graves in New York? Or the nearly 10000 deaths in New York already?

Yes I have, but what I haven't seen is an accurate way to determine how many were actually caused by covid19.

I also haven't seen the whole world shut down due to all the other things I listed, which have the potential to kill as many if not more than covid19.

The media has duped the masses again

By "the masses" you mean the scientific community and all of the world leaders and their governments who have led the response to the virus? But not you, no you're too clever for that, you can see that this whole thing is being driven by the media for the clear agenda of selling more newspapers or something...

No, by "The masses"
I mean the brain dead zombies that believe everything that they hear on their idiot box.

Got a question for you to think about, how many times throughout history do we later find out that the narrative that at the time was being presented as the truth was actually wrong or intentionally misleading?

As for listening to the GOVERNMENT
Let's look at what the word means, let's break it down.
The word 'Govern' is from the Latin verb Guverno, Guvernare which means "To control"
The word 'Ment' is a Latin noun Mens, Mentis which means "Mind"
= Mind Control

So keep listening to your Government tell you what to do through your idiot box

So just ignore the 113000 deaths?

No, but as I said, Are you going to stay inside until we get an effective vaccine for the flu, malaria, tuberculosis, or parasites like Chagas, elephantiasis, hookworm or liver flukes?

What about Nipah, Lassa or M.E respitory syndrome?

Lyme, West Nile, Zika, Hepatitis C?

What about respitory syncytial virus?

Shit, I bet you haven't even heard of half of these, you'll never go outside again.

The cure will end up being more devastating than the virus.
Imagine if we shut the world down for any of the above, before this covid19 rubbish I bet my balls that none of the above mentioned even crossed your mind as you went about your day.
Yet now you're avoiding everyone because of this which is no more deadly than any of them.

Why? I'll tell you why, because the fear generators have controlled your mind again, but nobody wants to actually admit that they're being manipulated by the media.

I know this is a little off topic, but I have to laugh at America, the land of FREE and the home of the BRAVE!!
Yeah right, they're all locked in their houses shit scared of an invisible boogey man.

More like "the land of the caged and the home of the terrified"

So what should we do when we have 114000 dead, hospital systems overwhelmed, mass graves in New York and according to you we don't even know what is causing all this? That sounds like more of a reason for a lockdown than if we actually knew what was happening!

Why didn't the world shutdown during SARS and MERS which had a way higher mortality rate?

I'm not saying covid19 isn't deadly, but the drastic measures put in place to prevent it are going to be more devastating than the virus itself

Because it didnt spread worldwide. SARS is a MUCH less infectious virus than COVID. It was only in few countries, and in those countries they DID shutdown. Why do you think Taiwan had such a good result in this epidemic? Because they had a trial run with SARS.

 

[Tiger5150]

I see Victoria is declaring a State of Emergency and extending the lockdown for another 4 weeks..
even though new cases are down...

Are we going to stay inside until we get an effective vaccine for the flu, malaria, tuberculosis, or parasites like Chagas, elephantiasis, hookworm or liver flukes?

What about Nipah, Lassa or M.E respitory syndrome?

Lyme, West Nile, Zika, Hepatitis C?

What about respitory syncytial virus?

Shit, I bet most people haven't even heard of half of these, you'll never go outside again.


none of them other than the Flu or Hep C are in Australia. Hep C has a cure. The Flu had a case mortality rate in Australia of 0.2%, COVID is 5 x higher at 1%.

What is your point and what are you suggesting?

How are you getting 1% when we don't have an accurate test for it?


Because its 1% of ***confirmed*** positive cases (based on Swinburne Uni & Mayo)

How did they determine 1%?

Its the case mortality rate, not total mortality rate. It is deaths divided by confirmed positive test results.

 

[diedpretty]

I see Victoria is declaring a State of Emergency and extending the lockdown for another 4 weeks..
even though new cases are down...

Are we going to stay inside until we get an effective vaccine for the flu, malaria, tuberculosis, or parasites like Chagas, elephantiasis, hookworm or liver flukes?

What about Nipah, Lassa or M.E respitory syndrome?

Lyme, West Nile, Zika, Hepatitis C?

What about respitory syncytial virus?

Shit, I bet most people haven't even heard of half of these, you'll never go outside again.


none of them other than the Flu or Hep C are in Australia. Hep C has a cure. The Flu had a case mortality rate in Australia of 0.2%, COVID is 5 x higher at 1%.

What is your point and what are you suggesting?

How are you getting 1% when we don't have an accurate test for it?


Because its 1% of ***confirmed*** positive cases (based on Swinburne Uni & Mayo)

That is the only problem with your figures. The fact that it can only be applied to confirmed cases may lead to an exagerated death rate. Doesn,t take in to account those who have it but have shown no symptoms or those who have had a mild reaction and in both cases have not been tested. There is no way of knowing what those numbers are.

 

[Hangonaminute]

I see Victoria is declaring a State of Emergency and extending the lockdown for another 4 weeks..
even though new cases are down...

Are we going to stay inside until we get an effective vaccine for the flu, malaria, tuberculosis, or parasites like Chagas, elephantiasis, hookworm or liver flukes?

What about Nipah, Lassa or M.E respitory syndrome?

Lyme, West Nile, Zika, Hepatitis C?

What about respitory syncytial virus?

Shit, I bet most people haven't even heard of half of these, you'll never go outside again.


none of them other than the Flu or Hep C are in Australia. Hep C has a cure. The Flu had a case mortality rate in Australia of 0.2%, COVID is 5 x higher at 1%.

What is your point and what are you suggesting?

How are you getting 1% when we don't have an accurate test for it?


Because its 1% of ***confirmed*** positive cases (based on Swinburne Uni & Mayo)

How did they determine 1%?


Its the case mortality rate, not total mortality rate. It is deaths divided by confirmed positive test results.

And yet we don't have an accurate way to test for it. So how do we get confirmed positive test results with an inaccurate test?

 

[Hangonaminute]

Apparently Australia has just had it's 61st confirmed covid19 death wow!!!!
We should all isolate ourselves for months.

More people die from falling coconuts than this, and we can actually confirm their deaths accurately.

 

[Tiger5150]

I see Victoria is declaring a State of Emergency and extending the lockdown for another 4 weeks..
even though new cases are down...

Are we going to stay inside until we get an effective vaccine for the flu, malaria, tuberculosis, or parasites like Chagas, elephantiasis, hookworm or liver flukes?

What about Nipah, Lassa or M.E respitory syndrome?

Lyme, West Nile, Zika, Hepatitis C?

What about respitory syncytial virus?

Shit, I bet most people haven't even heard of half of these, you'll never go outside again.


none of them other than the Flu or Hep C are in Australia. Hep C has a cure. The Flu had a case mortality rate in Australia of 0.2%, COVID is 5 x higher at 1%.

What is your point and what are you suggesting?

How are you getting 1% when we don't have an accurate test for it?


Because its 1% of ***confirmed*** positive cases (based on Swinburne Uni & Mayo)

That is the only problem with your figures. The fact that it can only be applied to confirmed cases may lead to an exagerated death rate. Doesn,t take in to account those who have it but have shown no symptoms or those who have had a mild reaction and in both cases have not been tested. There is no way of knowing what those numbers are.

I agree 100%, but this data is better than no data and if it used in conjunction with other information available then it can provide pretty accurate insight and information for decisions to be made.

As an example of what I mean, if we look at Australia we have a reasonably good test regime (testing 13880 people per 1M) and have a case mortality rate (deaths/total *known* cases) of 1%. When we compare that to case mortality rates all over the world we see that 1% is towards the bottom end of what is being published all over the world and from that we can assume that it is not much lower than 1%, but it definitely would be because you are right in that there would be more cases in Australia than they know.

But if you then look at say the US, they have a case mortality rate of 4% but have only tested 8557 per 1M. There isnt that much difference in the physiology between US and Australian humans so we can probably deduce that they have a total cases probably 4 x what they are reporting.