Coronavirus Outbreak

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@happy_tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142293) said:
@Fade-To-Black said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142291) said:
@happy_tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142224) said:
Kids are at home until 22th of May ......God help me

You might need Geo to help you with home-schooling Hap......the 22th of May? Is that just a QLD date? I was always brainwashed into believing it was the 22(nd).
Those toad-juice Pina Colada's must be pretty potent mate!

Yeah Mrs told me when I asked I thought it was 29th .....

Getting older mate ....its nuts I can remember my staff members employee numbers (6 digits )but I forget their names when they are standing in front of me

Yep, I can relate buddy?
 
@Fade-To-Black said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142304) said:
@happy_tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142293) said:
@Fade-To-Black said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142291) said:
@happy_tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142224) said:
Kids are at home until 22th of May ......God help me

You might need Geo to help you with home-schooling Hap......the 22th of May? Is that just a QLD date? I was always brainwashed into believing it was the 22(nd).
Those toad-juice Pina Colada's must be pretty potent mate!

Yeah Mrs told me when I asked I thought it was 29th .....

Getting older mate ....its nuts I can remember my staff members employee numbers (6 digits )but I forget their names when they are standing in front of me

Yep, I can relate buddy?

More worried about CTE mate
 
@Hangonaminute said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142251) said:
Apparently Australia has just had it's 61st confirmed covid19 death wow!!!!
We should all isolate ourselves for months.

More people die from falling coconuts than this, and we can actually confirm their deaths accurately.

I have left this alone, but this post leaves me unable to. Surely you are not that thick to not realise that such low numbers worldwide are because of social distancing and shutdowns.

This is at Col's oblivious Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon worship levels.
 
@happy_tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142282) said:
@hobbo1 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142275) said:
@happy_tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142224) said:
Kids are at home until 22th of May ......God help me

Need more food ..

Need more Goodies

RIP Tim Brooke Taylor ...loved these guys as much the Monty Python crew

Just learnt something I never knew ....he was actually part of the Python before they were Python
 
@happy_tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142407) said:
@hobbo1 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142404) said:
@happy_tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142402) said:
its like who's who in England today .....Boris , Kenny Dalgleish , TBT ..anyone I missed

West ham team

No we've had it for 22 weeks

Why couldn’t this shit happen at the start of the cricket season ? ?
 
@hobbo1 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142408) said:
@happy_tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142407) said:
@hobbo1 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142404) said:
@happy_tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142402) said:
its like who's who in England today .....Boris , Kenny Dalgleish , TBT ..anyone I missed

West ham team

No we've had it for 22 weeks

Why couldn’t this shit happen at the start of the cricket season ? ?

For sure. Cricket used to be awesome in the 80's but it is utter crud these days, would happily see it's extinction?
 
@Hangonaminute said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142251) said:
Apparently Australia has just had it's 61st confirmed covid19 death wow!!!!
We should all isolate ourselves for months.

More people die from falling coconuts than this, and we can actually confirm their deaths accurately.

Isolation appears to be getting to some people...
 
@happy_tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142326) said:
@happy_tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142282) said:
@hobbo1 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142275) said:
@happy_tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142224) said:
Kids are at home until 22th of May ......God help me

Need more food ..

Need more Goodies

RIP Tim Brooke Taylor ...loved these guys as much the Monty Python crew

Just learnt something I never knew ....he was actually part of the Python before they were Python

He, Cleese and Marty Feldman were all in cahoots before Python, Goodies and the two Ronnies.
 
@Cultured_Bogan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142446) said:
@Hangonaminute said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142251) said:
Apparently Australia has just had it's 61st confirmed covid19 death wow!!!!
We should all isolate ourselves for months.

More people die from falling coconuts than this, and we can actually confirm their deaths accurately.

Isolation appears to be getting to some people...

A reporter asked about the reduction to 19 from 21 of ventilated patients in ICU in NSW hospitals. Really he should have known the most likely scenario was the 2 deaths yesterday.
 
Channel 9 are running with the story that meals are still being prepared in the galley thought to be the source of infection on Ruby Princess. That question was asked to the NSW Police Commissioner this morning. He shut it down quickly with the advice this is for Border Force.
 
More breaking news on the radio ....supposedly Brendan Murphy was talking to his NZ counterpart and has said the source of the problems in NW Tassie is a dinner party held by Nurses / medical staff

38 staff attended ......
 
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142187) said:
@Hangonaminute said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142161) said:
@Nelson said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142138) said:
@Hangonaminute said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142135) said:
@cochise said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142130) said:
@Hangonaminute said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142121) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142102) said:
@Hangonaminute said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142096) said:
Don't get caught up on numbers, we already know that the false positive test rate and false negative rates are outrageous so I really don't know how or where they're getting these numbers from because we have no accurate way of testing for it.

But the public love numbers, so they just give us numbers, highly inaccurate numbers and fancy graphs to satisfy the mindless morons.

"Hurry up Karen, the public need to see another graph, don't worry if it's not accurate they don't know anyway, they only know what we put on the graph, they'll believe whatever you put on there, we just need to show them lines and numbers"


Of course I dont think and I dont think anyone here thinks these numbers are definitive but based on the high number of testing carried out in Australia and the consistency of the data correlated against itself and also against hard figures that ARE definitive such as hospital admissions and deaths, the numbers are a good representation of whats going on.

False negatives or positives dont matter once people start arriving in Hospitals.

You cant see any value in comparisons of the data from Mid March to today?

I don't see any value in this whole thing, this whole thing has been a total overreaction the two doctors who started this whole "social isolation" thing have come out already and said their computer models were all wrong and their estimate of total number of deaths is going to be less than half predicted which is as many as a normal flu season

The prevention has and will cause more deaths and disruption to our lives than the virus itself.
They'll just be slower.

Are you going to stay inside until we get an effective vaccine for the flu, malaria, tuberculosis, or parasites like Chagas, elephantiasis, hookworm or liver flukes?

What about Nipah, Lassa or M.E respitory syndrome?

Lyme, West Nile, Zika, Hepatitis C?

What about respitory syncytial virus?

Shit, I bet you haven't even heard of half of these, you'll never go outside again.

You haven't seen the mass graves in New York? Or the nearly 10000 deaths in New York already?

Yes I have, but what I haven't seen is an accurate way to determine how many were actually caused by covid19.

I also haven't seen the whole world shut down due to all the other things I listed, which have the potential to kill as many if not more than covid19.

The media has duped the masses again

By "the masses" you mean the scientific community and all of the world leaders and their governments who have led the response to the virus? But not you, no you're too clever for that, you can see that this whole thing is being driven by the media for the clear agenda of selling more newspapers or something...

No, by "The masses"
I mean the brain dead zombies that believe everything that they hear on their idiot box.

Got a question for you to think about, how many times throughout history do we later find out that the narrative that at the time was being presented as the truth was actually wrong or intentionally misleading?

As for listening to the GOVERNMENT
Let's look at what the word means, let's break it down.
The word 'Govern' is from the Latin verb Guverno, Guvernare which means "To control"
The word 'Ment' is a Latin noun Mens, Mentis which means "Mind"
= Mind Control

So keep listening to your Government tell you what to do through your idiot box


Ok so its the government doing this to "control the masses"? Seriously?

Lets look at this closer. In the US, you have an incumbent President, who is a filthy capitalist, seeking re-election in a vote THIS year, planning his whole strategy for re-election on a booming economy and he thought to himself..."I know what would seal the deal....if I make everyone stay inside and completely grind the economy into the ground...that'll work"

and in Australia, a conservative government, about to post a budget surplus ...."this is too easy, lets set a challenge and try to get unemployment up over 25%"

I am genuinely interested in what you think the government stands to gain in doing this?

Power and control
 
Thoughts and prayers...

https://nypost.com/2020/04/13/virginia-pastor-who-held-packed-church-service-dies-of-coronavirus/?utm_source=twitter_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site+buttons&utm_campaign=site+buttons&fbclid=IwAR2RQizp1nA9EvYCI-M4ybw1rPd_txU5DKeBfEzSS6FnNSrxiE_rYvAq6lE
 
@Hangonaminute said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142489) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142187) said:
@Hangonaminute said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142161) said:
@Nelson said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142138) said:
@Hangonaminute said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142135) said:
@cochise said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142130) said:
@Hangonaminute said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142121) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142102) said:
@Hangonaminute said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142096) said:
Don't get caught up on numbers, we already know that the false positive test rate and false negative rates are outrageous so I really don't know how or where they're getting these numbers from because we have no accurate way of testing for it.

But the public love numbers, so they just give us numbers, highly inaccurate numbers and fancy graphs to satisfy the mindless morons.

"Hurry up Karen, the public need to see another graph, don't worry if it's not accurate they don't know anyway, they only know what we put on the graph, they'll believe whatever you put on there, we just need to show them lines and numbers"


Of course I dont think and I dont think anyone here thinks these numbers are definitive but based on the high number of testing carried out in Australia and the consistency of the data correlated against itself and also against hard figures that ARE definitive such as hospital admissions and deaths, the numbers are a good representation of whats going on.

False negatives or positives dont matter once people start arriving in Hospitals.

You cant see any value in comparisons of the data from Mid March to today?

I don't see any value in this whole thing, this whole thing has been a total overreaction the two doctors who started this whole "social isolation" thing have come out already and said their computer models were all wrong and their estimate of total number of deaths is going to be less than half predicted which is as many as a normal flu season

The prevention has and will cause more deaths and disruption to our lives than the virus itself.
They'll just be slower.

Are you going to stay inside until we get an effective vaccine for the flu, malaria, tuberculosis, or parasites like Chagas, elephantiasis, hookworm or liver flukes?

What about Nipah, Lassa or M.E respitory syndrome?

Lyme, West Nile, Zika, Hepatitis C?

What about respitory syncytial virus?

Shit, I bet you haven't even heard of half of these, you'll never go outside again.

You haven't seen the mass graves in New York? Or the nearly 10000 deaths in New York already?

Yes I have, but what I haven't seen is an accurate way to determine how many were actually caused by covid19.

I also haven't seen the whole world shut down due to all the other things I listed, which have the potential to kill as many if not more than covid19.

The media has duped the masses again

By "the masses" you mean the scientific community and all of the world leaders and their governments who have led the response to the virus? But not you, no you're too clever for that, you can see that this whole thing is being driven by the media for the clear agenda of selling more newspapers or something...

No, by "The masses"
I mean the brain dead zombies that believe everything that they hear on their idiot box.

Got a question for you to think about, how many times throughout history do we later find out that the narrative that at the time was being presented as the truth was actually wrong or intentionally misleading?

As for listening to the GOVERNMENT
Let's look at what the word means, let's break it down.
The word 'Govern' is from the Latin verb Guverno, Guvernare which means "To control"
The word 'Ment' is a Latin noun Mens, Mentis which means "Mind"
= Mind Control

So keep listening to your Government tell you what to do through your idiot box


Ok so its the government doing this to "control the masses"? Seriously?

Lets look at this closer. In the US, you have an incumbent President, who is a filthy capitalist, seeking re-election in a vote THIS year, planning his whole strategy for re-election on a booming economy and he thought to himself..."I know what would seal the deal....if I make everyone stay inside and completely grind the economy into the ground...that'll work"

and in Australia, a conservative government, about to post a budget surplus ...."this is too easy, lets set a challenge and try to get unemployment up over 25%"

I am genuinely interested in what you think the government stands to gain in doing this?

Power and control


Not convinced without further explanation. Power & control only makes sense to me in a leftist, post modern or socialist scenario in which larger more involved government is the goal, but again when its a Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon, Johnson or Morrison government, I dont see that agenda and they only stand to lose, there is no win for them.

Im also pretty sure that three nights in ICU would not have been part of the grand plan for Boris.

So either you expand on your thoughts, or we are done.
 
Just keep listening to the instructions of your Government (Mind control) and Health Minister (the one who let infected people off the cruise ship which has claimed most of the deaths in Australia)

You have all been conditioned by the system to the point where you'll defend it even though it's obvious that it's not serving you well.

Follow their "orders" do as you're told.
 
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142492) said:
@Hangonaminute said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142489) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142187) said:
@Hangonaminute said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142161) said:
@Nelson said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142138) said:
@Hangonaminute said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142135) said:
@cochise said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142130) said:
@Hangonaminute said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142121) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142102) said:
@Hangonaminute said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142096) said:
Don't get caught up on numbers, we already know that the false positive test rate and false negative rates are outrageous so I really don't know how or where they're getting these numbers from because we have no accurate way of testing for it.

But the public love numbers, so they just give us numbers, highly inaccurate numbers and fancy graphs to satisfy the mindless morons.

"Hurry up Karen, the public need to see another graph, don't worry if it's not accurate they don't know anyway, they only know what we put on the graph, they'll believe whatever you put on there, we just need to show them lines and numbers"


Of course I dont think and I dont think anyone here thinks these numbers are definitive but based on the high number of testing carried out in Australia and the consistency of the data correlated against itself and also against hard figures that ARE definitive such as hospital admissions and deaths, the numbers are a good representation of whats going on.

False negatives or positives dont matter once people start arriving in Hospitals.

You cant see any value in comparisons of the data from Mid March to today?

I don't see any value in this whole thing, this whole thing has been a total overreaction the two doctors who started this whole "social isolation" thing have come out already and said their computer models were all wrong and their estimate of total number of deaths is going to be less than half predicted which is as many as a normal flu season

The prevention has and will cause more deaths and disruption to our lives than the virus itself.
They'll just be slower.

Are you going to stay inside until we get an effective vaccine for the flu, malaria, tuberculosis, or parasites like Chagas, elephantiasis, hookworm or liver flukes?

What about Nipah, Lassa or M.E respitory syndrome?

Lyme, West Nile, Zika, Hepatitis C?

What about respitory syncytial virus?

Shit, I bet you haven't even heard of half of these, you'll never go outside again.

You haven't seen the mass graves in New York? Or the nearly 10000 deaths in New York already?

Yes I have, but what I haven't seen is an accurate way to determine how many were actually caused by covid19.

I also haven't seen the whole world shut down due to all the other things I listed, which have the potential to kill as many if not more than covid19.

The media has duped the masses again

By "the masses" you mean the scientific community and all of the world leaders and their governments who have led the response to the virus? But not you, no you're too clever for that, you can see that this whole thing is being driven by the media for the clear agenda of selling more newspapers or something...

No, by "The masses"
I mean the brain dead zombies that believe everything that they hear on their idiot box.

Got a question for you to think about, how many times throughout history do we later find out that the narrative that at the time was being presented as the truth was actually wrong or intentionally misleading?

As for listening to the GOVERNMENT
Let's look at what the word means, let's break it down.
The word 'Govern' is from the Latin verb Guverno, Guvernare which means "To control"
The word 'Ment' is a Latin noun Mens, Mentis which means "Mind"
= Mind Control

So keep listening to your Government tell you what to do through your idiot box


Ok so its the government doing this to "control the masses"? Seriously?

Lets look at this closer. In the US, you have an incumbent President, who is a filthy capitalist, seeking re-election in a vote THIS year, planning his whole strategy for re-election on a booming economy and he thought to himself..."I know what would seal the deal....if I make everyone stay inside and completely grind the economy into the ground...that'll work"

and in Australia, a conservative government, about to post a budget surplus ...."this is too easy, lets set a challenge and try to get unemployment up over 25%"

I am genuinely interested in what you think the government stands to gain in doing this?

Power and control


Not convinced without further explanation. Power & control only makes sense to me in a leftist, post modern or socialist scenario in which larger more involved government is the goal, but again when its a Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon, Johnson or Morrison government, I dont see that agenda and they only stand to lose, there is no win for them.

Im also pretty sure that three nights in ICU would not have been part of the grand plan for Boris.

So either you expand on your thoughts, or we are done.

Oh now I get it, you actually think these puppets you see on the TV are in control.

Now I understand why it makes no sense to you when I say "Power and control"
At least you're thinking now, most people aren't capable of doing even that.
 
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1142064) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1141669) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140989) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140614) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140336) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140092) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1139798) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1139484) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1139116) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1138849) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1138622) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1138253) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1138063) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137850) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137555) said:
@cochise said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137552) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137549) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137300) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137292) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137277) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137269) said:
I’m having difficulty in understanding social distancing rules? It seems ok to stand in a queue to vote but a funeral must be limited to 10 mourners. It seems ok for hairdressers to continue to work, but beaches must be closed because the bathers are getting too close?
Has this pandemic shown us how ineffective our political system is ? Or are we just lacking leadership? I can understand why we need to take advice from WHO , but we always seem to be behind the pace? Russia closed its borders, and started contact tracing, in January. I’m not suggesting Russia is a model to follow or a country I would like to live in , merely pointing to decisive leadership.


Not having a go at you, nor am I necessarily defending the Govt or leadership, but what exactly do you think they should do? Are you suggesting a full lockdown?

Seems that most people are screaming that the Govt "should do more!!!" but I think it seems to be a lot of people who would not vote Libs in any situation.

Personally, I dont want the Govt to do more, or do less. I want them to take the advice of ALL the experts available to them to chart a course that navigates the tricky path of minimising deaths, ensuring our health system is not overwhelmed yet maintaining the maximum economic heartbeat possible.

Of course the natural reaction is to think to stop everything, shut down everything in total lockdown, and it may come to that and be necessary if it looks like it will overwhelm the health system, and Id be all for it in those circumstances, but if it is possible to reduce the rate of spread to a point that the health system can cope, yet keep as much of the economy running, then for me that is the best path.

This may seem callous for want of a better word, but when this is over, we are going to need to climb out of it and the depth of the decline economically will have a massive impact on many peoples lives for years to come and it will be the lower socioeconomic levels hit hardest. Rich people with assets will make it through.

The natural reaction is always 1 death is too many, but we average 4500 deaths a year for influenza and we dont shut down the economy to save those deaths. I am NOT suggeting this is the same as the flu, its not and if we did nothing there would be more than 10 x that number dead, but there does need to be a balance between possibility of deaths and possibility of economic depression.


5150, I’m not having a go at you either and I’m not wanting to get into a any pee high club discussion.
Just pointing out my observation that we always appear to be a country which follows, rather than one which gets on the front foot instinctively and decisively does what’s best for Australia and it’s citizens. There was a time when citizenship meant something. Anyway, cheer on your club if you like, but it doesn’t explain the failings in our political system.
Here’s an example..
https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/6698458/hairdressers-call-for-clear-messaging-directive-to-close-from-government/


Mate I dont necessarily disagree with you and I am **definitely** not wanting to get into a club discussion, in fact I dont actually feel like I have a club in this discussion, definitely not one Im cheering on.

Part of what prompted me to respond to your post was listening to discussions about what is going on in the UK. Their strategy is a bit different to what is going on in Italy & US and to a great extent appears to be a lot more successful. Their strategy is not based on auto lock down but involves lock down when required.

Im not sure what you are specifically referring to when you say the Govt which follows, particularly when we were the second country to shut borders to China, Iran & Italy. It is entirely possible that the strategy that the Aus Govt is following, on the advice of their experts, is entirely intentional and what is happening is EXACTLY what they are trying to do, but merely is different to the instinctive reaction of the general population, who aren't aware of the advice they are getting from the expertise.


Obviously not everyone is listening to the same experts.
I don’t have a problem with the governments staggered approach, although the downside is they need to wait 14 days to see what’s working. It was usually the approach I’ve taken, whether in business or with my health. If we follow the Shorten / Albo approach which is ‘throw the kitchen sink at it and hope for the best, then if it doesn’t work it’s harder to find out why. Or if it does work we can only speculate which remedy was more effective. I don’t know if the enormity of our problem is registering with some. I’ve heard from Doc the damage the virus causes to the lungs is irreparable.

It is hard to argue with the measures so far when the data is starting to turn for us, we know have to see if we need to make more restrictions to get it turn enough!


I was not going to post this for a few days to see how it panned out, but what you are saying correlates well with it. Four days ago the exponential rate of growth dropped markedly from a steady 1.23 - 1.25 down to 1.13. But since then it seems to have instantly found a new steady level with four days 1.13, 1.15, 1.13, 1.14. Hoping it drops again but if it stays there, more measures might be needed.

![5e131f51-c76b-4abd-8e5b-98bd82a04973-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585441939077-5e131f51-c76b-4abd-8e5b-98bd82a04973-image.png)


Well a couple of people wanted an update so here we are.....

Yesterday there was a significant dip in the exponential growth multiplier. It dipped down from a steady 1.3 for a few days, down below 1.1 to 1.09. This is pretty significant as it may be the second round of restrictions washing through. For those playing along at home, to be steady at 1.1 we need less that 4382 cases by the end of today.

![178df555-a81b-4a63-9bb3-34a41cc35182-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585526104568-178df555-a81b-4a63-9bb3-34a41cc35182-image.png)

![c51fe25f-5ed6-4aba-b79c-9310e59195b8-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585526115100-c51fe25f-5ed6-4aba-b79c-9310e59195b8-image.png)

This is obviously encouraging as slowing it down is obviously a good thing, but how does this end? At what point do we start thinking about re-opening the economy (Im not suggesting soon)?

I could imagine a scenario where parts of the local economy are reopened, but with disasters all over the world (US and parts of Europe), once its under control here I can see our borders closed for a LONG time.


Ok so something is definitely happening and so far it looks good. Another big dip yesterday in the exponential growth multiplier . It was steady at 1.23 for weeks, then spent four days at 1.13 and has spent the last two days going down. 1.09 Sunday and 1.06 yesterday.

Its very encouraging and shows that the restrictions and changes in behaviour are working. I have a couple of worries. People are behaving better, but not perfectly (we are Aussies) and I dont think we can get that multiplier down to 1 based on restrictions alone, so what does that mean? We get to a low multiplier (growth rate) and stay indoors?

I also worry that if we get teh growth rate low enough people will say "screw this" and go back to normal life and rates will bounce back up.

Anyway, so far so good. For those playing along, to keep it at 1.06 we need to keep the total to under 4523. At the time of posting (9:30) it was already 4364.

![c9c38040-01b2-4ecf-a963-6a8e70972bc0-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585607821813-c9c38040-01b2-4ecf-a963-6a8e70972bc0-image.png)

![09b6c536-47a1-4dc1-ae3d-aceabc0c1e8b-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585607833853-09b6c536-47a1-4dc1-ae3d-aceabc0c1e8b-image.png)


Another update. Yesterday stayed pretty steady with exponential multiplier of 1.06. I can see some merit in Mikes comment about reduced testing however. TO stay steady at 1.06 we need todays cases to stay below 4830. We are at 4711 already at 9am.

![ed65db15-fd88-4054-8e6f-ecfff673bd36-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585692708400-ed65db15-fd88-4054-8e6f-ecfff673bd36-image.png)

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Todays update. Yesterday was steady, very steady unfortunately. After an encouraging dip in the exponential multiplier, we have now had three days steady at 1.06.

Hoping the stricter measures start to wash through and we are not stuck here.

Need to keep total cases under 5150 today.

![6029adc5-7fef-4a6d-8dab-222a459887f5-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585781846743-6029adc5-7fef-4a6d-8dab-222a459887f5-image.png)

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Todays update.

A slight dip again yesterday. After three days at 1.06, the exponential multiplier dipped slightly to 1.05. Hopefully continues down but we might be getting to the point of diminishing returns. To maintain 1.05 growth or less, we need todays total to stay under 5400.

Had a thought this morning when considering someone else pointing out that new cases seem to be almost staying under 300 a day and this being a good thing. I agree that relative to what could be it is a reasonable result, but at current death rates, that would still 3-4 deaths a day (delayed by 20 days).

![ee01dccd-74e6-4dfc-ad52-b01285b7d64e-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585872542727-ee01dccd-74e6-4dfc-ad52-b01285b7d64e-image.png)

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Update for Friday 03/04/20

Another encouraging dip in the exponential multiplier. Dropped down from 1.056 to 1.041. Very encouraging. To maintain 1.04 we need the total cases to remain under 5570 today. at 10am they are still at last nights total 5350.

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Saturdays Update
Another encouraging dip. THe exponential multiplier dropped under 1.04 to 1.037. To keep it this low we need to stay under 5757 total cases today.

![a5aeb14a-c0e1-40ca-9df8-3fe3cb2ccf9c-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586041612571-a5aeb14a-c0e1-40ca-9df8-3fe3cb2ccf9c-image.png)

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I'd like to briefly derail this NSW Health & Border Force discussion with some boring numbers.

The trajectory continued downwards yesterday. The exponential multiplier dipped lower than Saturdays 1.037 to 1.024 which is very encouraging. Only 137 new cases (still equals 1-2 deaths in 2 weeks) . Clearly the measures are working. Fingers crossed there is no reversal. I hope Aussies being Aussies we dont revert to close enough and start to get out and about for a while. To stay at this low point, we need the total cases to stay below 5827 today.

Personally I'd love to see the multiplier get to 1, stick at it for 3-4 weeks then open everything but the borders back up.

![eb76f43e-f9a6-43d9-9966-1ae81dccaeec-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586131024323-eb76f43e-f9a6-43d9-9966-1ae81dccaeec-image.png)

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Todays update. This seems too good to be true. Yesterday the exponential multiplier dropped again under 1.02 to 1.018. To maintain this we need to stay under 5905 today.

![c5502386-c1d5-4aa1-9d08-5043f7e1e6de-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586208096790-c5502386-c1d5-4aa1-9d08-5043f7e1e6de-image.png)

![ed576d66-b7b9-461d-975d-7f08b004cdc6-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586208113816-ed576d66-b7b9-461d-975d-7f08b004cdc6-image.png)


Todays update, after yesterdays optimism, a bit of reality.

The exponential multiplier stayed steady at 1.019. Its not a bad result and its relatively low, but Im hopeful for the sake of opening things up again that we can get it way lower. I want the total cases number to stay under 6000 today.

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Well it seems we have hit a plateau. After a few days with solid drops in the exponential multiplier, down to a reasonably low level, we have now had three days of very steady levels of 1.018, 1.019 and yesterday 1.017. When this started I said it was unnerving how predictable it was every day when it was around 1.23 and again now for three days Ive been able to predict within 10 the total cases at the end of the day. The rate is relatively low, but for any chance of an exit I think we need it to drop more, at least below 1.01.

To maintain yesterdays rate, we need the total to stay under 6119 today. Personally I'd love it to stay at least under 6112 because that would be the first day with under 100 new cases for a long time.

Again for comparison, if we didnt drop the rate from 1.23, we would have had 62413 cases yesterday.

![915f240e-df46-4e6d-a19b-c1e016745693-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586386729493-915f240e-df46-4e6d-a19b-c1e016745693-image.png)

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Todays update. Remember I said it was getting predictable again, with expected number to be 6112 - 6119, it turned out to be 6104, so not bad. This equates to a slight drop again in the exponential multiplier down from 1.017 to 1.015, so pretty steady. First time under 100 new cases since 17 March

Expect it to be around 6195 today.

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Yesterday was predictably predictable. Total cases reached 6292. I guess it could be seen as slow steady progress downward with the multiplier dropping slightly again from 1.016 to 1.014 but its very slow and very steady. Seems to me the law of diminishing returns has kicked in and its hard to get better than this.

Expect cases to get to 6380 today but it would be encouraging to see a more significant dip. Actually it will be interesting to see if say on Tues or Wed if we see a rise because of Easter.

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Let me know if you are getting sick of these updates


Not sure of what to make of todays update. Yesterday there were only 21 new cases. This drops the exponential multiplier down from 1.014 to 1.003 which is effectively all over (remember 1.0 is no new cases and we are done). Now I am pretty sure that this is more a case of not a lot of testing on Easter Sunday rather than the end of the epidemic, so it will be interesting to see what happens this week.

My biggest concern is that the public sees these figures and just gets back to normal life but I hope they dont. They have to understand the time lag in infection, symptoms, infectious state. I would love to see these hard restrictions last 4 more weeks to eradicate it.

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At the risk of provoking @Hangonaminute and the new world order, but for the sake of continuity, here is the update on the figures.

Not sure how much can be taken from these numbers (restraint Hangon)...but only 46 new cases reported yesterday. Again, most likely a hangover from Easter weekend and we will see over the next few days if its an ongoing trend. FWIW the exponential multiplier bumped up slightly from incredibly low 0.003 to an also low 0.007.

What I find interesting and encouraging is NSW Department of Health are opening up test centres now where you can get tested on demand, anyone can get tested. This may spike numbers up but the result will be more reliable data and hopefully the start of an exit strategy. If they open testing up to all comers and the data doesnt change much, then they will know that they are on the right track and a possible way out.

![b986164a-dca9-4a46-9bbb-ae97ad14fa39-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586828679298-b986164a-dca9-4a46-9bbb-ae97ad14fa39-image.png)

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