Coronavirus Outbreak

[tigger]

So Four Weddings and a Funeral from next week announced on another record day with messaging tied in knots, Paramedics, many health workers overwhelmed and a double vaccinated colleague in ICU.

I thought this was a bit stupid. They aren't even having vaccine mandates in this situation.

It's pretty funny actually.

So how should we receive this news of the double vaxxed nurse? And also the nurse would have been reminded daily and would have been following the best Hygiene practices at the hospital,
Were we not made to believe that being fully vaxxed would keep out of ICU,
how do we explain this news now?
Is this not very concerning?

We were never told that being fully vaxxed would keep you out of hospital? We were told that it makes you 25 times less likely to be hospitalised and 25 time less likely to die. Pretty simple to understand really.

Thanks @cochise , but my point was, we were made to beleive that being double vaxxed would at least keep you out of the ICU or would be almost no chance.

Public Health England analysis show an 8% chance of hospitalisation if infected and double vaxxed with AZ or 4% chance of hospitalisation if double vaxxed with Pfizer.

Low chance but not zero.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant

Thanks for that mate, it is a very explanatory answer.

To be honest, for me this data poses more questions.

This data (and others seem to be the same) states you have 4% chance of hospitalisation if you catch Delta double vaxxed with Pfizer, 8% with AZ.

Currently there are 14671 active cases in NSW with 761 in hospital. If we reduce the total number by say 5500 for the last week (assume it takes a week to get that sick) that is 9171 cases and the 761 in hospital represents 8%. Can only assume that at least more than 50% of the cases are unvaxxed (probably a lot more). My point being on these numbers I dont see how the vaccine is reducing the risk (once you have the infection) of hospitalisation.

I genuinely dont want to argue a case against vaccine effectiveness, and of course the vaccine will also reduce the risk of contracting, but I'd be keen for someone to walk me through how there is much of a reduction.

I can only assume that in the absence of vaccination the numbers hospitalised would be higher. Using simple made up figures, it might look like this.

10% of unvaccinated people will be hospitalised. 4 % of vaccinated people will be hospitalised.
100 people all unvaccinated. 10 hospitalised = 10% of total population (TP)
100 people. 30 vaccinated. 70 unvaccinated. 1+7 = 8 hospitalised = 8% of TP
100 people. 50 vaccinated. 50 unvaccinated. 2+5 = 7 hospitalised = 7% of TP
100 people. 70 vaccinated. 30 unvaccinated. 3+3 = 6 hospitalised = 6% of TP

**The percentage decrease in hospitalisation, when taken as a percentage of the total number of people being hospitalised is significant. But when it is taken as a percentage of the total number infected it appears to be insignificant.** However, as you can see, in these made up figures, the difference between o% vaccination and 70% vaccination would be a 40% reduction in hospitalisation.

 

[Pascoes_barber]

So Four Weddings and a Funeral from next week announced on another record day with messaging tied in knots, Paramedics, many health workers overwhelmed and a double vaccinated colleague in ICU.

I thought this was a bit stupid. They aren't even having vaccine mandates in this situation.

It's pretty funny actually.

So how should we receive this news of the double vaxxed nurse? And also the nurse would have been reminded daily and would have been following the best Hygiene practices at the hospital,
Were we not made to believe that being fully vaxxed would keep out of ICU,
how do we explain this news now?
Is this not very concerning?

We were never told that being fully vaxxed would keep you out of hospital? We were told that it makes you 25 times less likely to be hospitalised and 25 time less likely to die. Pretty simple to understand really.

Thanks @cochise , but my point was, we were made to beleive that being double vaxxed would at least keep you out of the ICU or would be almost no chance.

Public Health England analysis show an 8% chance of hospitalisation if infected and double vaxxed with AZ or 4% chance of hospitalisation if double vaxxed with Pfizer.

Low chance but not zero.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant

Thanks for that mate, it is a very explanatory answer.

To be honest, for me this data poses more questions.

This data (and others seem to be the same) states you have 4% chance of hospitalisation if you catch Delta double vaxxed with Pfizer, 8% with AZ.

Currently there are 14671 active cases in NSW with 761 in hospital. If we reduce the total number by say 5500 for the last week (assume it takes a week to get that sick) that is 9171 cases and the 761 in hospital represents 8%. Can only assume that at least more than 50% of the cases are unvaxxed (probably a lot more). My point being on these numbers I dont see how the vaccine is reducing the risk (once you have the infection) of hospitalisation.

I genuinely dont want to argue a case against vaccine effectiveness, and of course the vaccine will also reduce the risk of contracting, but I'd be keen for someone to walk me through how there is much of a reduction.

Because almost 100% in hospital are unvaccinated.

I get that, but that strengthens the point above. Based on my calculations of the NSW health numbers (welcome correction of my calculations), it would suggest that if you catch COVID and are unvaccinated, you have an 8% chance of being hospitalised. According to the Public Health England analysis, if you are fully vaxxed with AZ and contract COVID you also have an 8% chance of hospitalisation (4% on Pfizer).

Would genuinely welcome someone (even Earl) to correct my assessment and show me where this is wrong (I'd love to be wrong)?
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant
https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/find-the-facts-about-covid-19#new-cases-of-covid-19-and-current-cases-in-hospital

I have to admit, I do not understand the point you're trying to make.

COVID-19 WEEKLY SURVEILLANCE IN NSW - **NSW Health**:
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Documents/covid-surveillance-report-20210813.pdf


That's a few weeks out of date (to end July), but looks to be <2% of hospital admissions.

This figure **does not** account for the many, many thousands of cases that do not require/have not required hospitalisation, or those who were entirely asymptomatic either due to the effectiveness of the vaccine or sheer luck.

 

[cochise]

So Four Weddings and a Funeral from next week announced on another record day with messaging tied in knots, Paramedics, many health workers overwhelmed and a double vaccinated colleague in ICU.

I thought this was a bit stupid. They aren't even having vaccine mandates in this situation.

It's pretty funny actually.

So how should we receive this news of the double vaxxed nurse? And also the nurse would have been reminded daily and would have been following the best Hygiene practices at the hospital,
Were we not made to believe that being fully vaxxed would keep out of ICU,
how do we explain this news now?
Is this not very concerning?

We were never told that being fully vaxxed would keep you out of hospital? We were told that it makes you 25 times less likely to be hospitalised and 25 time less likely to die. Pretty simple to understand really.

Thanks @cochise , but my point was, we were made to beleive that being double vaxxed would at least keep you out of the ICU or would be almost no chance.

No we weren't

 

[Tiger5150]

So Four Weddings and a Funeral from next week announced on another record day with messaging tied in knots, Paramedics, many health workers overwhelmed and a double vaccinated colleague in ICU.

I thought this was a bit stupid. They aren't even having vaccine mandates in this situation.

It's pretty funny actually.

So how should we receive this news of the double vaxxed nurse? And also the nurse would have been reminded daily and would have been following the best Hygiene practices at the hospital,
Were we not made to believe that being fully vaxxed would keep out of ICU,
how do we explain this news now?
Is this not very concerning?

We were never told that being fully vaxxed would keep you out of hospital? We were told that it makes you 25 times less likely to be hospitalised and 25 time less likely to die. Pretty simple to understand really.

Thanks @cochise , but my point was, we were made to beleive that being double vaxxed would at least keep you out of the ICU or would be almost no chance.

Public Health England analysis show an 8% chance of hospitalisation if infected and double vaxxed with AZ or 4% chance of hospitalisation if double vaxxed with Pfizer.

Low chance but not zero.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant

Thanks for that mate, it is a very explanatory answer.

To be honest, for me this data poses more questions.

This data (and others seem to be the same) states you have 4% chance of hospitalisation if you catch Delta double vaxxed with Pfizer, 8% with AZ.

Currently there are 14671 active cases in NSW with 761 in hospital. If we reduce the total number by say 5500 for the last week (assume it takes a week to get that sick) that is 9171 cases and the 761 in hospital represents 8%. Can only assume that at least more than 50% of the cases are unvaxxed (probably a lot more). My point being on these numbers I dont see how the vaccine is reducing the risk (once you have the infection) of hospitalisation.

I genuinely dont want to argue a case against vaccine effectiveness, and of course the vaccine will also reduce the risk of contracting, but I'd be keen for someone to walk me through how there is much of a reduction.

Because almost 100% in hospital are unvaccinated.

I get that, but that strengthens the point above. Based on my calculations of the NSW health numbers (welcome correction of my calculations), it would suggest that if you catch COVID and are unvaccinated, you have an 8% chance of being hospitalised. According to the Public Health England analysis, if you are fully vaxxed with AZ and contract COVID you also have an 8% chance of hospitalisation (4% on Pfizer).

Would genuinely welcome someone (even Earl) to correct my assessment and show me where this is wrong (I'd love to be wrong)?
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant
https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/find-the-facts-about-covid-19#new-cases-of-covid-19-and-current-cases-in-hospital

Hi mate, see my post above yours. The plain English meaning of effectiveness is not what these studies mean when they use the word.

This is from a wall Street journal article, the first thing I got when looking for a better explanation than my own:
"In the approximately 44,000-person study of the Pfizer vaccine, 170 developed Covid-19 with at least one symptom. Of those, just eight had been vaccinated, while 162 had received a placebo. The 95% efficacy rate is derived from that ratio."

So the sample in the above becomes "people who contract covid" and the efficacy is as described, the ratio of 162/170.

With respect OMT, I understand the meaning of effectiveness and efficacy very well and your summary above is 100% *with respect to contracting symptomatic* COVID and is completely in accordance with the New England Journal of Medicine Study I have posted over and over again with regards to the efficacy to catching COVID.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891


So in the hospitalisation example it basically means for every 100 people in hospital with covid, only 4 - 8 (depending on vaccine type) will be double dosed.

I think this is wrong and so is my initial analysis of the hospitalisation rates that I have posted earlier.

I tracked down the actual study that the 92% AZ effectiveness against hospitalisation and 96% for Pfizer (linked below). It is not calculated the way I calculated it earlier and not the way you post here either.

The 92%/96% effectiveness against hospitalisation (VE) is derived by multiplying the effectiveness of the vaccine against contracting the disease (Odds Ratio OR) by the proportion of people in hospital that are double vaxxed (hazard ratio HR).

The calculation is VE=1-(ORxHR).

This to me is surprising. In the study that comes up with the 92%/96% VE, the actual proportion of people in hospital double vaxxed is actually around 35% and when that is multiplied by efficacy of the vaccines as determined by the exact same New England Journal of Medicine (reference 1. in PHE Study), thats how you get the 92%/95% figure. Actual proportion of fully vaxxed people in hospital is much higher than 4-8%.

https://khub.net/web/phe-national/public-library/-/document_library/v2WsRK3ZlEig/view_file/479607329?_com_liferay_document_library_web_portlet_DLPortlet_INSTANCE_v2WsRK3ZlEig_redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fkhub.net%3A443%2Fweb%2Fphe-national%2Fpublic-library%2F-%2Fdocument_library%2Fv2WsRK3ZlEig%2Fview%2F479607266

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891

Again, Im throwing this up for discussion and not claiming any high ground. Very happy for someone to point out any flaws.

 

[old_man_tiger]

So Four Weddings and a Funeral from next week announced on another record day with messaging tied in knots, Paramedics, many health workers overwhelmed and a double vaccinated colleague in ICU.

I thought this was a bit stupid. They aren't even having vaccine mandates in this situation.

It's pretty funny actually.

So how should we receive this news of the double vaxxed nurse? And also the nurse would have been reminded daily and would have been following the best Hygiene practices at the hospital,
Were we not made to believe that being fully vaxxed would keep out of ICU,
how do we explain this news now?
Is this not very concerning?

We were never told that being fully vaxxed would keep you out of hospital? We were told that it makes you 25 times less likely to be hospitalised and 25 time less likely to die. Pretty simple to understand really.

Thanks @cochise , but my point was, we were made to beleive that being double vaxxed would at least keep you out of the ICU or would be almost no chance.

Public Health England analysis show an 8% chance of hospitalisation if infected and double vaxxed with AZ or 4% chance of hospitalisation if double vaxxed with Pfizer.

Low chance but not zero.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant

Thanks for that mate, it is a very explanatory answer.

To be honest, for me this data poses more questions.

This data (and others seem to be the same) states you have 4% chance of hospitalisation if you catch Delta double vaxxed with Pfizer, 8% with AZ.

Currently there are 14671 active cases in NSW with 761 in hospital. If we reduce the total number by say 5500 for the last week (assume it takes a week to get that sick) that is 9171 cases and the 761 in hospital represents 8%. Can only assume that at least more than 50% of the cases are unvaxxed (probably a lot more). My point being on these numbers I dont see how the vaccine is reducing the risk (once you have the infection) of hospitalisation.

I genuinely dont want to argue a case against vaccine effectiveness, and of course the vaccine will also reduce the risk of contracting, but I'd be keen for someone to walk me through how there is much of a reduction.

Because almost 100% in hospital are unvaccinated.

I get that, but that strengthens the point above. Based on my calculations of the NSW health numbers (welcome correction of my calculations), it would suggest that if you catch COVID and are unvaccinated, you have an 8% chance of being hospitalised. According to the Public Health England analysis, if you are fully vaxxed with AZ and contract COVID you also have an 8% chance of hospitalisation (4% on Pfizer).

Would genuinely welcome someone (even Earl) to correct my assessment and show me where this is wrong (I'd love to be wrong)?
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant
https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/find-the-facts-about-covid-19#new-cases-of-covid-19-and-current-cases-in-hospital

Hi mate, see my post above yours. The plain English meaning of effectiveness is not what these studies mean when they use the word.

This is from a wall Street journal article, the first thing I got when looking for a better explanation than my own:
"In the approximately 44,000-person study of the Pfizer vaccine, 170 developed Covid-19 with at least one symptom. Of those, just eight had been vaccinated, while 162 had received a placebo. The 95% efficacy rate is derived from that ratio."

So the sample in the above becomes "people who contract covid" and the efficacy is as described, the ratio of 162/170.

With respect OMT, I understand the meaning of effectiveness and efficacy very well and your summary above is 100% *with respect to contracting symptomatic* COVID and is completely in accordance with the New England Journal of Medicine Study I have posted over and over again with regards to the efficacy to catching COVID.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891


So in the hospitalisation example it basically means for every 100 people in hospital with covid, only 4 - 8 (depending on vaccine type) will be double dosed.

This is wrong and so is my initial analysis of the hospitalisation rates that I have posted earlier.

I tracked down the actual study that the 92% AZ effectiveness against hospitalisation and 96% for Pfizer (linked below). It is not calculated the way I calculated it earlier and not the way you post here either.

The 92%/96% effectiveness against hospitalisation (VE) is derived by multiplying the effectiveness of the vaccine against contracting the disease (Odds Ratio OR) by the proportion of people in hospital that are double vaxxed (hazard ratio HR).

The calculation is VE=1-(ORxHR).

This to me is surprising. In the study that comes up with the 92%/96% VE, the actual proportion of people in hospital double vaxxed is actually around 35% and when that is multiplied by efficacy of the vaccines as determined by the exact same New England Journal of Medicine (reference 1. in PHE Study), thats how you get the 92%/95% figure. Actual proportion is much higher than 4-8%.

https://khub.net/web/phe-national/public-library/-/document_library/v2WsRK3ZlEig/view_file/479607329?_com_liferay_document_library_web_portlet_DLPortlet_INSTANCE_v2WsRK3ZlEig_redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fkhub.net%3A443%2Fweb%2Fphe-national%2Fpublic-library%2F-%2Fdocument_library%2Fv2WsRK3ZlEig%2Fview%2F479607266

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891

Again, Im throwing this up for discussion and not caliming any high ground. Very happy for someone to point out any flaws.

Thanks I'll read that??

 

[Tiger5150]

So Four Weddings and a Funeral from next week announced on another record day with messaging tied in knots, Paramedics, many health workers overwhelmed and a double vaccinated colleague in ICU.

I thought this was a bit stupid. They aren't even having vaccine mandates in this situation.

It's pretty funny actually.

So how should we receive this news of the double vaxxed nurse? And also the nurse would have been reminded daily and would have been following the best Hygiene practices at the hospital,
Were we not made to believe that being fully vaxxed would keep out of ICU,
how do we explain this news now?
Is this not very concerning?

We were never told that being fully vaxxed would keep you out of hospital? We were told that it makes you 25 times less likely to be hospitalised and 25 time less likely to die. Pretty simple to understand really.

Thanks @cochise , but my point was, we were made to beleive that being double vaxxed would at least keep you out of the ICU or would be almost no chance.

Public Health England analysis show an 8% chance of hospitalisation if infected and double vaxxed with AZ or 4% chance of hospitalisation if double vaxxed with Pfizer.

Low chance but not zero.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant

Thanks for that mate, it is a very explanatory answer.

To be honest, for me this data poses more questions.

This data (and others seem to be the same) states you have 4% chance of hospitalisation if you catch Delta double vaxxed with Pfizer, 8% with AZ.

Currently there are 14671 active cases in NSW with 761 in hospital. If we reduce the total number by say 5500 for the last week (assume it takes a week to get that sick) that is 9171 cases and the 761 in hospital represents 8%. Can only assume that at least more than 50% of the cases are unvaxxed (probably a lot more). My point being on these numbers I dont see how the vaccine is reducing the risk (once you have the infection) of hospitalisation.

I genuinely dont want to argue a case against vaccine effectiveness, and of course the vaccine will also reduce the risk of contracting, but I'd be keen for someone to walk me through how there is much of a reduction.

Because almost 100% in hospital are unvaccinated.

I get that, but that strengthens the point above. Based on my calculations of the NSW health numbers (welcome correction of my calculations), it would suggest that if you catch COVID and are unvaccinated, you have an 8% chance of being hospitalised. According to the Public Health England analysis, if you are fully vaxxed with AZ and contract COVID you also have an 8% chance of hospitalisation (4% on Pfizer).

Would genuinely welcome someone (even Earl) to correct my assessment and show me where this is wrong (I'd love to be wrong)?
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant
https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/find-the-facts-about-covid-19#new-cases-of-covid-19-and-current-cases-in-hospital

I have to admit, I do not understand the point you're trying to make.

Im probably not explaining it well.

Assume that vaccines didnt exist. Based on NSW healths numbers it seems that if you get COVID you have about an 8% chance of ending up in hospital. What Ive been trying to get my head around, is that the Public HEalth England analysis states that AZ vaccine is 92% effective at preventing hospitalisation. I was trying to understand how that doesnt equal about the same (8%)? I may have found my answer in the later post.

COVID-19 WEEKLY SURVEILLANCE IN NSW - **NSW Health**:
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Documents/covid-surveillance-report-20210813.pdf


That's a few weeks out of date (to end July), but looks to be <2% of hospital admissions.



IMO these numbers do not show or prove anything with regards vaccine effectiveness at preventing hospitalisation due to the fact that particularly at the end of July our vax numbers were so low. Because the number of vaxxed people are low, it will also stand as a fact that just on pure percentages the percentages of vaxed people in hospital will be low regardless of effectiveness.

In fact if you also take into consideration that the vaccines are supposedly 88% effective at stopping you from catching COVID (67% for AZ), if anything I would suggest the vaxxed percentages in the hospital data above should be lower (they are higher than I would expect). I think your data, when analysised through the filter that I ahve just explained (low vaxxed numbers) actually stands up pretty well to my recent explanation of how they came to the 92%/96% figure.

 

[FinestTigers]

So Four Weddings and a Funeral from next week announced on another record day with messaging tied in knots, Paramedics, many health workers overwhelmed and a double vaccinated colleague in ICU.

I thought this was a bit stupid. They aren't even having vaccine mandates in this situation.

It's pretty funny actually.

So how should we receive this news of the double vaxxed nurse? And also the nurse would have been reminded daily and would have been following the best Hygiene practices at the hospital,
Were we not made to believe that being fully vaxxed would keep out of ICU,
how do we explain this news now?
Is this not very concerning?

We were never told that being fully vaxxed would keep you out of hospital? We were told that it makes you 25 times less likely to be hospitalised and 25 time less likely to die. Pretty simple to understand really.

Thanks @cochise , but my point was, we were made to beleive that being double vaxxed would at least keep you out of the ICU or would be almost no chance.

No we weren't

Okay, just wanted it cleared up ?

 

[cochise]

Watching this morning's presser was appalling.

More backflips around weddings.

After telling people that you can go downhill and die quickly & call an ambulance if you have breathing difficulties, today there are too many people calling ambulance creating pressure on the system.

No mention of the number of ambulances parked outside of hospitals because their patients can't get in .

Talk of enacting the plan that has been prepared over the last 18 months. If this is the plan, then it is not a very good one.

Overarching message seems to be that this is all your fault. The lack of accountability is disgraceful. Hazzard by name, Hazzard by nature.

I think that was more in relation to people calling triple 0 for food deliveries and transportation for vaccinations.

 

[Harvey]

Watching this morning's presser was appalling.

More backflips around weddings.

After telling people that you can go downhill and die quickly & call an ambulance if you have breathing difficulties, today there are too many people calling ambulance creating pressure on the system.

No mention of the number of ambulances parked outside of hospitals because their patients can't get in .

Talk of enacting the plan that has been prepared over the last 18 months. If this is the plan, then it is not a very good one.

Overarching message seems to be that this is all your fault. The lack of accountability is disgraceful. Hazzard by name, Hazzard by nature.

I think that was more in relation to people calling triple 0 for food deliveries and transportation for vaccinations.

I don't think a press conference is going to change the behaviour of those morons. But those that follow government advice & do the right thing will now think twice before calling.

 

[Pascoes_barber]

I have to admit, I do not understand the point you're trying to make.


Im probably not explaining it well.

Assume that vaccines didnt exist. Based on NSW healths numbers it seems that if you get COVID you have about an 8% chance of ending up in hospital. What Ive been trying to get my head around, is that the Public HEalth England analysis states that AZ vaccine is 92% effective at preventing hospitalisation. I was trying to understand how that doesnt equal about the same (8%)? I may have found my answer in the later post.

It's been a long week, but I don't think I can get my head around this either.

COVID-19 WEEKLY SURVEILLANCE IN NSW - **NSW Health**:
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Documents/covid-surveillance-report-20210813.pdf


That's a few weeks out of date (to end July), but looks to be <2% of hospital admissions.



IMO these numbers do not show or prove anything with regards vaccine effectiveness at preventing hospitalisation due to the fact that particularly at the end of July our vax numbers were so low. Because the number of vaxxed people are low, it will also stand as a fact that just on pure percentages the percentages of vaxed people in hospital will be low regardless of effectiveness.

I'm not really sure how you come to that. Vaccination percentages were low, but they weren't 2% low.

Out of curiosity I just checked, 18.72% for 16+ in NSW, with an obvious skew towards the older population.

And on that topic, you could likely extrapolate some more meaning by looking at the demographics; what percentage of each age group make up the overall population, what percentage of each age group are currently hospitalised due to COVID-19, then review each age group's percentage of full vaccinated status given Delta has thrown the whole 'it only really effects the elderly or those with pre-existing comorbities' out the window.




Either way, it's probably not yet a large enough sample size to really be 'sure' of anything.

Give it another month and there'll be a bigger dataset to play with - probably 50,000 confirmed cases, and all of them being the same variant.

At the rapid rate of vaccination finally underway you probably also see half of NSW fully vaccinated by then too.

 

[Tiger5150]

I have to admit, I do not understand the point you're trying to make.


Im probably not explaining it well.

Assume that vaccines didnt exist. Based on NSW healths numbers it seems that if you get COVID you have about an 8% chance of ending up in hospital. What Ive been trying to get my head around, is that the Public HEalth England analysis states that AZ vaccine is 92% effective at preventing hospitalisation. I was trying to understand how that doesnt equal about the same (8%)? I may have found my answer in the later post.

It's been a long week, but I don't think I can get my head around this either.

COVID-19 WEEKLY SURVEILLANCE IN NSW - **NSW Health**:
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Documents/covid-surveillance-report-20210813.pdf


That's a few weeks out of date (to end July), but looks to be <2% of hospital admissions.



IMO these numbers do not show or prove anything with regards vaccine effectiveness at preventing hospitalisation due to the fact that particularly at the end of July our vax numbers were so low. Because the number of vaxxed people are low, it will also stand as a fact that just on pure percentages the percentages of vaxed people in hospital will be low regardless of effectiveness.

I'm not really sure how you come to that. Vaccination percentages were low, but they weren't 2% low.

NO but overall they were low and then the vaccine should prevent almost all of them catching it so it should be exceedingly low.


Out of curiosity I just checked, 18.72% for 16+ in NSW, with an obvious skew towards the older population.

OK Bingo...actual numbers....

so if 18.72% are fully vaxxed and lets use the Pfizer efficacy against contracting COVID, this reduces the percentage that can be fully vaxxed and are likely to catch it to 18.72 x 0.12 (Pfizer efficacy) which equals 2.24% which is around the number in your data. If that was true it would imply that the vaccine doesnt further reduce your risk of hospitalisation once you have caught it..

Using AZ numbers, 18.72 x 0.27 (AZ efficacy) = 5% in which case yes, it would imply a reduction.

Of course this data is unsuitable to really make this analysis. The number of each vaccine is unknown, ages not taken into consideration etc.



And on that topic, you could likely extrapolate some more meaning by looking at the demographics; what percentage of each age group make up the overall population, what percentage of each age group are currently hospitalised due to COVID-19, then review each age group's percentage of full vaccinated status given Delta has thrown the whole 'it only really effects the elderly or those with pre-existing comorbities' out the window.




Either way, it's probably not yet a large enough sample size to really be 'sure' of anything.

Give it another month and there'll be a bigger dataset to play with - probably 50,000 confirmed cases, and all of them being the same variant.

At the rapid rate of vaccination finally underway you probably also see half of NSW fully vaccinated by then too.

You have correctly demonstrated that with age demographics etc thrown in, this becomes clear as mud and I dont think there is any merit in trying to extrapolate anything meaningful from that data.

I do think that I now understand the 92%/96% figure better now though and I dont ever think it will related to 4-8% of hospital cases vaccinated.

 

[Geo]

Well that's a relief..

 

[Tiger5150]

Well that's a relief..

Im sure Earl will come along and explain it better soon. :wink:

 

[tony soprano]

1st jab down.

 

[mike]

Well the bottom line is you don’t die.

AstraZeneca are 92% effective against hospitalisation due to the Delta variant and showed **no deaths** among those vaccinated.

https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2021/covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-effective-against-delta-indian-variant.html

 

[Ultimate Warrior]

Well the bottom line is you don’t die.

AstraZeneca are 92% effective against hospitalisation due to the Delta variant and showed **no deaths** among those vaccinated.

https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2021/covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-effective-against-delta-indian-variant.html

Got me some AZ. Still need the second dose.

Can’t wait to enjoy my freedoms.

And to knobs that are anti vaxxers, if you get COVID, I hope you are happy to be seen behind anyone who has been vaccinated and is trying to do the right thing. They deserve that respect and privilege.

Anti vaxxers - you get what you get and you don’t get upset.

 

[FinestTigers]

Well the bottom line is you don’t die.

AstraZeneca are 92% effective against hospitalisation due to the Delta variant and showed **no deaths** among those vaccinated.

https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2021/covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-effective-against-delta-indian-variant.html

@mike , I still remember you asking me if i'm being vaxxed or not, do you still want to know?

 

[innsaneink]

Well the bottom line is you don’t die.

AstraZeneca are 92% effective against hospitalisation due to the Delta variant and showed **no deaths** among those vaccinated.

https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2021/covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-effective-against-delta-indian-variant.html

@mike , I still remember you asking me if i'm being vaxxed or not, do you still want to know?

I'm eagerly anticipating....

 

[mike]

Well the bottom line is you don’t die.

AstraZeneca are 92% effective against hospitalisation due to the Delta variant and showed **no deaths** among those vaccinated.

https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2021/covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-effective-against-delta-indian-variant.html

@mike , I still remember you asking me if i'm being vaxxed or not, do you still want to know?

That’s entirely up to you.

 

[FinestTigers]

Well the bottom line is you don’t die.

AstraZeneca are 92% effective against hospitalisation due to the Delta variant and showed **no deaths** among those vaccinated.

https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2021/covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-effective-against-delta-indian-variant.html

@mike , I still remember you asking me if i'm being vaxxed or not, do you still want to know?

That’s entirely up to you.

But before i give my answer, could you tell me what your guess is?