Coronavirus Outbreak

[PJ_]

Had first Pfizer jab this morning.
Got to admire the qld health set up at south bank. Massive operation. Would cost an absolute fortune. One of the nurses told me they're averaging 4000 a day.
Only 1 small Cafe though.
Might get a food van 😂

 

[PJ_]

^^^ No side effects, only a feeling of impending doom, but that's prob the game this arvo😁

 

[Don Kershane]

Well I have all my papers now in order

My Aust Govt Covid Vac cert
My Serv NSW Authorised worker Travel rego
My Companys Authorized worker letter

Hope im not riddled with machine gun fire at checkpoint charlie

"Papers please!"


Hope you can supply dated video proof that you didn't visit a clandestine hairdresser if questioned at checkpoint with a neat haircut.

 

[innsaneink]

1218 cases today.

Not good

 

[Tiger5150]

How people misinterpret efficacy rates

Misuse/Misunderstanding efficacy point 1:- Vaccine efficacy rates are transferable to individual risk profile. People misunderstand the efficacy rate to believe it provides some clear protection rate.

For instance a vaccine efficacy rate of 75% does not mean if you are vaccinated you are 75% less likely to develop COVID. It means in a population and conditions as per the clinical trial with an expected infection rate of say 1% we would expect approximately .25% of vaccinated people to develop COVID. It does not mean that you **as an individual are 75% less likely to develop COVID.**

What does it say at 2:10 of your Vox video Earl? Are you spreading lies and misinformation? Simple, important question for you, the mods and everyone on this thread.

Misuse/Misunderstanding efficacy point 2:- Comparing vaccines.

Each ***clinical trial*** is conducted at different times and with different conditions. So a efficacy rate of 100% is not comparable to an efficacy rate of 50% because the conditions can be completely different.
For instance if 1 person developed COVID we have a vaccine efficacy rate of 100% -100 * (1-0/1) however this study may have been done in a much more conducive environment for the vaccine.
For instance if 30 people developed (12 vaccinated) COVID we have a vaccine efficacy rate of 60% -100 * (1-12/30) however this study may have been done when COVID was rampant.
If we switched the trial periods for these two vaccines the results may be completely different. The first vaccine may have had an efficacy rate of 20% if the trial was completed at the same conditions as the second vaccine.


Earl can you please stop? For the hundredth time, you have ***again*** adequately explained the initial *clinical trials* of the vaccines. There have been hundreds of studies since, using real world data of the vaccines, at the same time, place and variant. The one used by Public Health England is the New England Journal of Medicine, it was done this year against Delta, using real world data in the same place and time. Pfizer 88% efficacy against Delta, AZ 67%, There is nothing else that needs to be said. YOU are the one lying and misrepresenting here. It needs to stop.

Again https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891

Misuse/Misunderstanding efficacy point 3:- Focus on the efficacy rate rather than effectiveness against hospitalization/death

This is my opinion but it is also the opinion of large amounts of health experts/epidemiologists etc. It's a pretty simple concept.

A complete lie again. It is NOT the opinion of large amounts of health experts, it is YOUR opinion and that of a Vox video. Public Health England do not share your view.

Do you know how they calculate effectiveness against hospitalisation? The calculation of effectiveness of the vaccine in preventing hospitalisation includes the efficacy at preventing infection which of course makes sense because you are not going to be hospitalised if you dont contract it.

The formula for Vaccine effectiveness (VE) = 1 - (OR x HR)
OR is the Odds Ratio for symptomatic disease from a test negative case control analysis. In simpler terms for you....OR = the efficacy of the vaccine at preventing infection. For Public Health England derive OR from the New England Journal of Medicine study that I have posted over and over and you continually ignore.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant
https://khub.net/web/phe-national/public-library/-/document_library/v2WsRK3ZlEig/view_file/479607329?_com_liferay_document_library_web_portlet_DLPortlet_INSTANCE_v2WsRK3ZlEig_redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fkhub.net%3A443%2Fweb%2Fphe-national%2Fpublic-library%2F-%2Fdocument_library%2Fv2WsRK3ZlEig%2Fview%2F479607266
Efficacy is very important. You need to stop this rubbish. You are actually lying and spreading misinformation.

A common cold that gives you a runny nose is not something to get concerned about however dying is something to be concerned about.

Are you serious Earl? This is your level of misinformation. Covid is like the common cold that give you a runny nose?

Misuse/Misunderstanding efficacy point 4:- Efficacy rates are somehow set in stone. The only time I've seen this misunderstanding is on this forum. So maybe it's not a general misconception.


You must stop lying. The efficacy does not change over time. I have posted many studies about this. If you are vaccinated and locked in a room, anywhere in the world with someone with the Alpha variant, the efficacy of either of the vaccines remains unchanged against that virus today as six months ago. The NEJM study I post all the time (and will again here cleary shows that the Pfizer efficacy at preventing infection with Alpha remains at 94% and 88% for Delta, AZ is 75% for alpha, 67% for Delta. The vaccine efficacy does NOT change over time. The vaccine efficacy is different for different variants. Ive posted scientific proof of this. You posted a rubbish Vox video.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891

People appear to believe that an efficacy rate only changes if there is a new strain or something like that. This completely misses the point. An efficacy rate is solely useful in terms of the conditions under which the trial was conducted.

No...you are talking about the initial clinical trials

>The real world effectiveness will basically not be the same as the efficacy rate.

The efficacy rate determined by scientific test negative case control analysis, published by one of the most authoritative medical journals in the world, under current conditions, at the same place, same time and against the same variant (Delta) is the efficacy of the vaccine.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891

Source:- https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00075-X/fulltext

I like that you are finally posting a link to something Earl, but as a general rule, the reference you post should relate to what you are saying.

In that Lancet article, can you please point out to me where it references your lies about comparing vaccines, your lies about vaccine efficacy declining over time?

Again Earl says he has me on foe but this needs to stop. I think the time where Earl and my back and forths were mildly amusing have passed for everyone but I simply wont let him post these lies and rubbish. Would appreciate if someone would quote in the hope he understands he is wrong and stops.

 

[earl]

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nothing-in-our-studies-ever-prepared-us-for-this-a-nurse-on-sydney-s-frontline-tells-it-like-it-is-20210827-p58mha.html

>We are exhausted. Last night was brutal. We literally hit capacity … Just holding on. None of us have ever faced anything like it. Nothing in our studies ever prepared us for this, and not even the most experienced of us have ever seen anything like it.

>The patients are air-hungry, starving for breath. Just to turn a patient over, from on their back to on their stomach – which is something we must do regularly – and keep them breathing, needs six nurses. And we simply don’t have enough of us. We are on the edge right now, with nurses who sign on for eight-hour shifts, leaving after 12 and 14 hours!

>We have been trying to warn the government for a year. We need more nurses! They boast about the ventilators they’ve now got, but ventilators without nurses are useless

>We are at breaking point right now.

The situation is really bad right now and it could get worse.

@Jedi_Tiger gave us a personal perspective on the situation in the hospitals. Health care workers bear the brunt of this situation.

 

[Geo]

@Earl stop lying please

This cracks me up.

I'm going to continue my approach of providing factual information from epidemiologists and other experts backed up by masses of data crunch by statisticians.

You could call it lying.

You don’t have too

 

[Tiger5150]

Simple question to the mods here @Geo , @willow, @cochise and everyone I missed.

I recognise that what is happening between myself and Earl here is ruining this thread and apologise for my part in it, however I genuinely feel that Earl posting the same things that are completely wrong and shown by scientific studies to be wrong is dangerous and shouldnt be allowed to happen.

It is not merely a case of my opinion against his, I have demonstrated that he is wrong time and again with actual scientific data and yet he makes a conscious decision to ignore it.

Earl has a right to his opinion and to express it however, like all of us, if he states as fact something that is false, particularly when it has real world health implications he (or anyone) needs to be pulled up on it.

I dont suggest that Earl should be "shut up", he should be allowed to post here and express his opinions, however there is a short list of things that he posts that are wrong and I will continue to call him out. I would like to make the suggestion that on just this narrow range of things that I have cleary demonstrated to be false. instead of a long dissertation proving him wrong over and over and over again boring everyone, I'll just report it to be deleted.

These issues will be

Earl stating that efficacy doesnt matter and there is no difference in the efficacy between the vaccines.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891

Earl stating that the efficacy of the vaccines declines with time.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891

Does this seem like a reasonable way to stop misinformation but also stop clogging the thread? Feel free to PM me.

 

[Geo]

The report function is always there..

I can’t speak for the other mods but in all honesty I don’t even read every post especially in this thread.. even so am smart enough to work out what is crap and just scroll on by.. also if you are looking for advice on COVID on a footy forum you are doing it wrong in the 1st place.. Always and I mean ALWAYS contact your health professional in regards to anything health related to yourself.

I very much doubt anyone would actually base a health decision on what they read here so the back and forth just becomes a peeing contest..that no one even bothers to read tbh

 

[Guest]

I've pretty much zoned out from Tigers5150 and Earl's tit-for-tat Star Trek vs Star Wars drama. It gave me more of a headache than my first Pfizer shot did.

 

[earl]

@Earl stop lying please

This cracks me up.

I'm going to continue my approach of providing factual information from epidemiologists and other experts backed up by masses of data crunch by statisticians.

You could call it lying.

You don’t have too

I think it's good providing up to date information that is accurate.

@willow - I'm really not trying to get into a pissing contest with that guy. He has been wrong and so wrong every time. I have him on ignore. I don't want to listen to it.

Sorry to everyone about the situation. I will continue to post information that is completely accurate and I am more than happy to be picked up for errors so long as they are factual.

I don't actually find it fun going and having to clearly articulate the meaning of efficacy. I'm not the best communicator on that point. That is why I provided that Vox video because it communicates the message better than my factual break down of the issue.

 

[earl]

This is actually big news.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00475-8/fulltext

This is large study which means good quality data.

Massive point of interest:-

1. The Delta strain appears to have twice the risk of hospitalization compared to previous strains amongst the unvaccinated.
2. The risk of hospitalization for vaccinated individuals is probably the same for the Delta compared to previous variants.

>This large national study found a higher hospital admission or emergency care attendance risk for patients with COVID-19 infected with the delta variant compared with the alpha variant. Results suggest that outbreaks of the delta variant in unvaccinated populations might lead to a greater burden on health-care services than the alpha variant.

--> This has really big implications for Australia. It means now the chance of people being hospitalized is higher because we only have like a 30% full vaccination protection.
--> The Doherty report would not at this point have this information but it means there estimates will probably need be updated in relation to the hospitalization rates for the unvaccinated at whatever stage of opening up. The high level picture though will in my opinion stay the same.

Significant Points:-

1. Most patients hospitalized were unvaccinated. Not really news but the same general message applies.
2. Median age 31. This is interesting. It probably just means that older people are more likely to be vaccinated.

 

[Tiger5150]

I don't actually find it fun going and having to clearly articulate the meaning of efficacy. I'm not the best communicator on that point. That is why I provided that Vox video because it communicates the message better than my factual break down of the issue.

Your Vox video gets the definition of efficacy wrong by your own definition at 2:10.

Your Vox video states the the vaccines provide 100% effectiveness against hospitalisation at 6:06. This is a dangerous lie.

Your Vox video explains that the vaccines dont change over time and that the variants do at 3:36.

your Vox video states that if you are vaccinated that Covid is like catching a cold at 5:30.

 

[swag_tiger]

People would have to be not very smart to say that if people stopped getting tested there would be no Covid.

 

[FinestTigers]

I'm certain that these two gentlemen @Tiger5150 and @Earl truly care about the health of our community, and i'm disgusted when i see that one of them is accused of being a liar by some people here.
These two gentlemen are providing some very valuable and a informative debate about a very serious and even still developing problem in our community.
And, as i am very interested i'm certain that other people on this forum are watching this debate with great interest because some of these people could not have gotten this valuable info somewhere else even if they tried to.

So, Mr @Tiger5150 and Mr @Earl please continue with providing your valuable info and continue with your debating. Thankyou.

 

[innsaneink]

I've pretty much zoned out from Tigers5150 and Earl's tit-for-tat Star Trek vs Star Wars drama. It gave me more of a headache than my first Pfizer shot did.

Just scroll on past like we all do

 

[Guest]

I'm certain that these two gentlemen @Tiger5150 and @Earl truly care about the health of our community, and i'm disgusted when i see that one of them is accused of being a liar by some people here.
These two gentlemen are providing some very valuable and a informative debate about a very serious and even still developing problem in our community.
And, as i am very interested i'm certain that other people on this forum are watching this debate with great interest because some of these people could not have gotten this valuable info somewhere else even if they tried to.

So, Mr @Tiger5150 and Mr @Earl please continue with providing your valuable info and continue with your debating. Thankyou.

I think you need to re-read what you typed because the two people you are bowing down to in admiration are the only ones calling each other a liar.

 

[Tiger_Fanatic3]


 

[FinestTigers]

I'm certain that these two gentlemen @Tiger5150 and @Earl truly care about the health of our community, and i'm disgusted when i see that one of them is accused of being a liar by some people here.
These two gentlemen are providing some very valuable and a informative debate about a very serious and even still developing problem in our community.
And, as i am very interested i'm certain that other people on this forum are watching this debate with great interest because some of these people could not have gotten this valuable info somewhere else even if they tried to.

So, Mr @Tiger5150 and Mr @Earl please continue with providing your valuable info and continue with your debating. Thankyou.

I think you need to re-read what you typed because the two people you are bowing down to in admiration are the only ones calling each other a liar.

Yes, i did realise that and that would be a matter for the mods to observe,
But my point was that other people are not helping by calling one of them a liar they are only encouraging it further. None of them is a liar.

 

[Tiger5150]

I'm certain that these two gentlemen @Tiger5150 and @Earl truly care about the health of our community, and i'm disgusted when i see that one of them is accused of being a liar by some people here.
These two gentlemen are providing some very valuable and a informative debate about a very serious and even still developing problem in our community.
And, as i am very interested i'm certain that other people on this forum are watching this debate with great interest because some of these people could not have gotten this valuable info somewhere else even if they tried to.

So, Mr @Tiger5150 and Mr @Earl please continue with providing your valuable info and continue with your debating. Thankyou.

Its not a debate.

I have no interest in engaging with Earl. I only engage with his posts when he posts something that is clearly contrary to all of the scientific data. He keeps saying the same misinformation over and over and over again despite black and white evidence to the contrary. When someone knows that something is false and they continue to state it as fact, its a lie. On these issues, when Earl is saying things proven to be untrue, intentionally despite the evidence, he is lying and is a liar. No idea why he is doing it.

I am going to do my best not to clog up this thread, but I will not let Earls misinformation stand.