Coronavirus Outbreak

[earl]

So-called long-Covid is a debilitating illness and I hate to think of the impact on our younger residents.

There are 3 basic things that scientists/health experts are looking at in this post vaccine world:-

1. Deaths
2. Hospitalizations (Including ICU/ventilator usage)
3. Instances of long COVID

Shout out to @Jedi_Tiger for providing info on Westmead hospital. We are in a bad situation right now. I hope our health care staff get through this. They are the ones who are going to bear the brunt of this situation in the community.

Double vaccinated nurse at westmead has tested positive and is in ICU

Our health care workers will cop it. They made a very clear point to please get vaccinated. The ambulance service is under severe pressure.

I'm not stating this to offend people but Brad Hazzard also mentioned that you should question your GPs' advice in certain situations. Sometimes GP's don't have the most up to date information.

One example was for pregnant women. The science is stating to get vaccinated if you are pregnant.

The misinformation is a continuing problem.

 

[earl]

https://www.acog.org/news/news-releases/2021/07/acog-smfm-recommend-covid-19-vaccination-for-pregnant-individuals

The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) and the Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine (SMFM), the two leading organizations representing specialists in obstetric care, recommend that all pregnant individuals be vaccinated against COVID-19.

 

[earl]

My eldest son's girlfriend suggested if he is vaccinated he will become infertile!

Word is that COVID will do that .. has been reported so maybe get vaccinated!

Wow.

My son is only 20. His cousin, a nurse unit manager, reassured him this is untrue. She also suggested he split with his current and she would introduce him to a very nice colleague of hers who is interested him. I encouraged him to take up the offer.

The infertility issue was addressed on the NSW presser this morning.

Yes, there are a lot of untruths being disseminated. I heard in one NSW town the shop owner has a sign that says vaccinated people are not allow as they shed the Covid virus.

Actually I think this is related to a question that you asked me recently and I think you got this information from a valid source like 9 news or something,

My SIL has also told my wife the same point.

The science states the following points:-

1. You significantly reduce your chance of infection if you are vaccinated.
2. You significantly reduce your chance of hospitalization/death etc if you are vaccinated.
3. You can still get the virus if you are vaccinated.
4. You can still shed a huge amount of the virus if you are infected and vaccinated.
5. Typically you shed the virus for a considerably smaller period if you are vaccinated.

--> The disinformation comes because they focus on point 4 only and then pervert this point.

People cherry pick facts and pervert that fact to make their point. You need the whole picture and not some cherry picked fact that is only being utilized to push a certain point of view.

 

[Tim Sheens]

So Four Weddings and a Funeral from next week announced on another record day with messaging tied in knots, Paramedics, many health workers overwhelmed and a double vaccinated colleague in ICU.

 

[earl]

So Four Weddings and a Funeral from next week announced on another record day with messaging tied in knots, Paramedics, many health workers overwhelmed and a double vaccinated colleague in ICU.

I thought this was a bit stupid. They aren't even having vaccine mandates in this situation.

It's pretty funny actually.

 

[Tiger5150]

My eldest son's girlfriend suggested if he is vaccinated he will become infertile!

Word is that COVID will do that .. has been reported so maybe get vaccinated!

Wow.

My son is only 20. His cousin, a nurse unit manager, reassured him this is untrue. She also suggested he split with his current and she would introduce him to a very nice colleague of hers who is interested him. I encouraged him to take up the offer.

The infertility issue was addressed on the NSW presser this morning.

Yes, there are a lot of untruths being disseminated. I heard in one NSW town the shop owner has a sign that says vaccinated people are not allow as they shed the Covid virus.

You actually can (and probably do) shed the spike protein (which outside your body is completely harmless).

 

[earl]

The infertility issue was addressed on the NSW presser this morning.

https://www.dw.com/en/covid-vaccine-the-unfounded-tale-of-infertility/a-58753946
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2781360

>In this study of sperm parameters before and after 2 doses of a COVID-19 mRNA vaccine, there were no significant decreases in any sperm parameter among this small cohort of healthy men. Because the vaccines contain mRNA and not the live virus, it is unlikely that the vaccine would affect sperm parameters.

 

[FinestTigers]

So Four Weddings and a Funeral from next week announced on another record day with messaging tied in knots, Paramedics, many health workers overwhelmed and a double vaccinated colleague in ICU.

I thought this was a bit stupid. They aren't even having vaccine mandates in this situation.

It's pretty funny actually.

So how should we receive this news of the double vaxxed nurse? And also the nurse would have been reminded daily and would have been following the best Hygiene practices at the hospital,
Were we not made to believe that being fully vaxxed would keep out of ICU,
how do we explain this news now?
Is this not very concerning?

 

[cochise]

So Four Weddings and a Funeral from next week announced on another record day with messaging tied in knots, Paramedics, many health workers overwhelmed and a double vaccinated colleague in ICU.

I thought this was a bit stupid. They aren't even having vaccine mandates in this situation.

It's pretty funny actually.

So how should we receive this news of the double vaxxed nurse? And also the nurse would have been reminded daily and would have been following the best Hygiene practices at the hospital,
Were we not made to believe that being fully vaxxed would keep out of ICU,
how do we explain this news now?
Is this not very concerning?

We were never told that being fully vaxxed would keep you out of hospital? We were told that it makes you 25 times less likely to be hospitalised and 25 time less likely to die. Pretty simple to understand really.

 

[Tiger5150]

So Four Weddings and a Funeral from next week announced on another record day with messaging tied in knots, Paramedics, many health workers overwhelmed and a double vaccinated colleague in ICU.

I thought this was a bit stupid. They aren't even having vaccine mandates in this situation.

It's pretty funny actually.

So how should we receive this news of the double vaxxed nurse? And also the nurse would have been reminded daily and would have been following the best Hygiene practices at the hospital,
Were we not made to believe that being fully vaxxed would keep out of ICU,
how do we explain this news now?
Is this not very concerning?

Public Health England analysis say that Pfizer 96% effective at keeping you out of hospital and AZ 92%. So if the nurse had PFizer she still had a 12% chance of catching it and then once infected a 4% chance of being hospitalised.

If she had AZ she had a 33% chance of catching it and then an 8% chance of being hospitalised.

She is unlucky but someone has to be in that 4-8%.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891

 

[FinestTigers]

So Four Weddings and a Funeral from next week announced on another record day with messaging tied in knots, Paramedics, many health workers overwhelmed and a double vaccinated colleague in ICU.

I thought this was a bit stupid. They aren't even having vaccine mandates in this situation.

It's pretty funny actually.

So how should we receive this news of the double vaxxed nurse? And also the nurse would have been reminded daily and would have been following the best Hygiene practices at the hospital,
Were we not made to believe that being fully vaxxed would keep out of ICU,
how do we explain this news now?
Is this not very concerning?

We were never told that being fully vaxxed would keep you out of hospital? We were told that it makes you 25 times less likely to be hospitalised and 25 time less likely to die. Pretty simple to understand really.

Thanks @cochise , but my point was, we were made to beleive that being double vaxxed would at least keep you out of the ICU or would be almost no chance.

 

[Tiger5150]

So Four Weddings and a Funeral from next week announced on another record day with messaging tied in knots, Paramedics, many health workers overwhelmed and a double vaccinated colleague in ICU.

I thought this was a bit stupid. They aren't even having vaccine mandates in this situation.

It's pretty funny actually.

So how should we receive this news of the double vaxxed nurse? And also the nurse would have been reminded daily and would have been following the best Hygiene practices at the hospital,
Were we not made to believe that being fully vaxxed would keep out of ICU,
how do we explain this news now?
Is this not very concerning?

We were never told that being fully vaxxed would keep you out of hospital? We were told that it makes you 25 times less likely to be hospitalised and 25 time less likely to die. Pretty simple to understand really.

Thanks @cochise , but my point was, we were made to beleive that being double vaxxed would at least keep you out of the ICU or would be almost no chance.

Public Health England analysis show an 8% chance of hospitalisation if infected and double vaxxed with AZ or 4% chance of hospitalisation if double vaxxed with Pfizer.

Low chance but not zero.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant

 

[FinestTigers]

So Four Weddings and a Funeral from next week announced on another record day with messaging tied in knots, Paramedics, many health workers overwhelmed and a double vaccinated colleague in ICU.

I thought this was a bit stupid. They aren't even having vaccine mandates in this situation.

It's pretty funny actually.

So how should we receive this news of the double vaxxed nurse? And also the nurse would have been reminded daily and would have been following the best Hygiene practices at the hospital,
Were we not made to believe that being fully vaxxed would keep out of ICU,
how do we explain this news now?
Is this not very concerning?

We were never told that being fully vaxxed would keep you out of hospital? We were told that it makes you 25 times less likely to be hospitalised and 25 time less likely to die. Pretty simple to understand really.

Thanks @cochise , but my point was, we were made to beleive that being double vaxxed would at least keep you out of the ICU or would be almost no chance.

Public Health England analysis show an 8% chance of hospitalisation if infected and double vaxxed with AZ or 4% chance of hospitalisation if double vaxxed with Pfizer.

Low chance but not zero.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant

Thanks for that mate, it is a very explanatory answer.

 

[Tiger5150]

So Four Weddings and a Funeral from next week announced on another record day with messaging tied in knots, Paramedics, many health workers overwhelmed and a double vaccinated colleague in ICU.

I thought this was a bit stupid. They aren't even having vaccine mandates in this situation.

It's pretty funny actually.

So how should we receive this news of the double vaxxed nurse? And also the nurse would have been reminded daily and would have been following the best Hygiene practices at the hospital,
Were we not made to believe that being fully vaxxed would keep out of ICU,
how do we explain this news now?
Is this not very concerning?

We were never told that being fully vaxxed would keep you out of hospital? We were told that it makes you 25 times less likely to be hospitalised and 25 time less likely to die. Pretty simple to understand really.

Thanks @cochise , but my point was, we were made to beleive that being double vaxxed would at least keep you out of the ICU or would be almost no chance.

Public Health England analysis show an 8% chance of hospitalisation if infected and double vaxxed with AZ or 4% chance of hospitalisation if double vaxxed with Pfizer.

Low chance but not zero.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant

Thanks for that mate, it is a very explanatory answer.

To be honest, for me this data poses more questions.

This data (and others seem to be the same) states you have 4% chance of hospitalisation if you catch Delta double vaxxed with Pfizer, 8% with AZ.

Currently there are 14671 active cases in NSW with 761 in hospital. If we reduce the total number by say 5500 for the last week (assume it takes a week to get that sick) that is 9171 cases and the 761 in hospital represents 8%. Can only assume that at least more than 50% of the cases are unvaxxed (probably a lot more). My point being on these numbers I dont see how the vaccine is reducing the risk (once you have the infection) of hospitalisation.

I genuinely dont want to argue a case against vaccine effectiveness, and of course the vaccine will also reduce the risk of contracting, but I'd be keen for someone to walk me through how there is much of a reduction.

 

[Pascoes_barber]

So Four Weddings and a Funeral from next week announced on another record day with messaging tied in knots, Paramedics, many health workers overwhelmed and a double vaccinated colleague in ICU.

I thought this was a bit stupid. They aren't even having vaccine mandates in this situation.

It's pretty funny actually.

So how should we receive this news of the double vaxxed nurse? And also the nurse would have been reminded daily and would have been following the best Hygiene practices at the hospital,
Were we not made to believe that being fully vaxxed would keep out of ICU,
how do we explain this news now?
Is this not very concerning?

We were never told that being fully vaxxed would keep you out of hospital? We were told that it makes you 25 times less likely to be hospitalised and 25 time less likely to die. Pretty simple to understand really.

Thanks @cochise , but my point was, we were made to beleive that being double vaxxed would at least keep you out of the ICU or would be almost no chance.

Public Health England analysis show an 8% chance of hospitalisation if infected and double vaxxed with AZ or 4% chance of hospitalisation if double vaxxed with Pfizer.

Low chance but not zero.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant

Thanks for that mate, it is a very explanatory answer.

To be honest, for me this data poses more questions.

This data (and others seem to be the same) states you have 4% chance of hospitalisation if you catch Delta double vaxxed with Pfizer, 8% with AZ.

Currently there are 14671 active cases in NSW with 761 in hospital. If we reduce the total number by say 5500 for the last week (assume it takes a week to get that sick) that is 9171 cases and the 761 in hospital represents 8%. Can only assume that at least more than 50% of the cases are unvaxxed (probably a lot more). My point being on these numbers I dont see how the vaccine is reducing the risk (once you have the infection) of hospitalisation.

I genuinely dont want to argue a case against vaccine effectiveness, and of course the vaccine will also reduce the risk of contracting, but I'd be keen for someone to walk me through how there is much of a reduction.

Because almost 100% in hospital are unvaccinated.

There’s still only about 1/3 in NSW who have received two shots.

I hope the unfortunate edge case nurse makes a full recovery.

 

[old_man_tiger]

I'm pretty sure the quoted efficacy rates (from trials) and effectiveness rates (real world data) cannot be interpreted that way. There is not an 8% chance of going to hospital with Delta once double dosed with AZ. You are 92% less likely to go to hospital. In other words, it refers to the ratio of people in hospital who are double dosed vs those who are not vaccinated, not the chances of hospitalisation for an individual.

Would like corrections if needed from @jirskyr or someone else who works in the field.

 

[Tiger5150]

So Four Weddings and a Funeral from next week announced on another record day with messaging tied in knots, Paramedics, many health workers overwhelmed and a double vaccinated colleague in ICU.

I thought this was a bit stupid. They aren't even having vaccine mandates in this situation.

It's pretty funny actually.

So how should we receive this news of the double vaxxed nurse? And also the nurse would have been reminded daily and would have been following the best Hygiene practices at the hospital,
Were we not made to believe that being fully vaxxed would keep out of ICU,
how do we explain this news now?
Is this not very concerning?

We were never told that being fully vaxxed would keep you out of hospital? We were told that it makes you 25 times less likely to be hospitalised and 25 time less likely to die. Pretty simple to understand really.

Thanks @cochise , but my point was, we were made to beleive that being double vaxxed would at least keep you out of the ICU or would be almost no chance.

Public Health England analysis show an 8% chance of hospitalisation if infected and double vaxxed with AZ or 4% chance of hospitalisation if double vaxxed with Pfizer.

Low chance but not zero.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant

Thanks for that mate, it is a very explanatory answer.

To be honest, for me this data poses more questions.

This data (and others seem to be the same) states you have 4% chance of hospitalisation if you catch Delta double vaxxed with Pfizer, 8% with AZ.

Currently there are 14671 active cases in NSW with 761 in hospital. If we reduce the total number by say 5500 for the last week (assume it takes a week to get that sick) that is 9171 cases and the 761 in hospital represents 8%. Can only assume that at least more than 50% of the cases are unvaxxed (probably a lot more). My point being on these numbers I dont see how the vaccine is reducing the risk (once you have the infection) of hospitalisation.

I genuinely dont want to argue a case against vaccine effectiveness, and of course the vaccine will also reduce the risk of contracting, but I'd be keen for someone to walk me through how there is much of a reduction.

Because almost 100% in hospital are unvaccinated.

I get that, but that strengthens the point above. Based on my calculations of the NSW health numbers (welcome correction of my calculations), it would suggest that if you catch COVID and are unvaccinated, you have an 8% chance of being hospitalised. According to the Public Health England analysis, if you are fully vaxxed with AZ and contract COVID you also have an 8% chance of hospitalisation (4% on Pfizer).

Would genuinely welcome someone (even Earl) to correct my assessment and show me where this is wrong (I'd love to be wrong)?
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant
https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/find-the-facts-about-covid-19#new-cases-of-covid-19-and-current-cases-in-hospital

 

[Harvey]

Watching this morning's presser was appalling.

More backflips around weddings.

After telling people that you can go downhill and die quickly & call an ambulance if you have breathing difficulties, today there are too many people calling ambulance creating pressure on the system.

No mention of the number of ambulances parked outside of hospitals because their patients can't get in .

Talk of enacting the plan that has been prepared over the last 18 months. If this is the plan, then it is not a very good one.

Overarching message seems to be that this is all your fault. The lack of accountability is disgraceful. Hazzard by name, Hazzard by nature.

 

[old_man_tiger]

So Four Weddings and a Funeral from next week announced on another record day with messaging tied in knots, Paramedics, many health workers overwhelmed and a double vaccinated colleague in ICU.

I thought this was a bit stupid. They aren't even having vaccine mandates in this situation.

It's pretty funny actually.

So how should we receive this news of the double vaxxed nurse? And also the nurse would have been reminded daily and would have been following the best Hygiene practices at the hospital,
Were we not made to believe that being fully vaxxed would keep out of ICU,
how do we explain this news now?
Is this not very concerning?

We were never told that being fully vaxxed would keep you out of hospital? We were told that it makes you 25 times less likely to be hospitalised and 25 time less likely to die. Pretty simple to understand really.

Thanks @cochise , but my point was, we were made to beleive that being double vaxxed would at least keep you out of the ICU or would be almost no chance.

Public Health England analysis show an 8% chance of hospitalisation if infected and double vaxxed with AZ or 4% chance of hospitalisation if double vaxxed with Pfizer.

Low chance but not zero.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant

Thanks for that mate, it is a very explanatory answer.

To be honest, for me this data poses more questions.

This data (and others seem to be the same) states you have 4% chance of hospitalisation if you catch Delta double vaxxed with Pfizer, 8% with AZ.

Currently there are 14671 active cases in NSW with 761 in hospital. If we reduce the total number by say 5500 for the last week (assume it takes a week to get that sick) that is 9171 cases and the 761 in hospital represents 8%. Can only assume that at least more than 50% of the cases are unvaxxed (probably a lot more). My point being on these numbers I dont see how the vaccine is reducing the risk (once you have the infection) of hospitalisation.

I genuinely dont want to argue a case against vaccine effectiveness, and of course the vaccine will also reduce the risk of contracting, but I'd be keen for someone to walk me through how there is much of a reduction.

Because almost 100% in hospital are unvaccinated.

I get that, but that strengthens the point above. Based on my calculations of the NSW health numbers (welcome correction of my calculations), it would suggest that if you catch COVID and are unvaccinated, you have an 8% chance of being hospitalised. According to the Public Health England analysis, if you are fully vaxxed with AZ and contract COVID you also have an 8% chance of hospitalisation (4% on Pfizer).

Would genuinely welcome someone (even Earl) to correct my assessment and show me where this is wrong (I'd love to be wrong)?
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant
https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/find-the-facts-about-covid-19#new-cases-of-covid-19-and-current-cases-in-hospital

Hi mate, see my post above yours. The plain English meaning of effectiveness is not what these studies mean when they use the word.

This is from a wall Street journal article, the first thing I got when looking for a better explanation than my own:
"In the approximately 44,000-person study of the Pfizer vaccine, 170 developed Covid-19 with at least one symptom. Of those, just eight had been vaccinated, while 162 had received a placebo. The 95% efficacy rate is derived from that ratio."

So the sample in the above becomes "people who contract covid" and the efficacy is as described, the ratio of 162/170.

So in the hospitalisation example it basically means for every 100 people in hospital with covid, only 4 - 8 (depending on vaccine type) will be double dosed.

 

[old_man_tiger]

Disclaimer, I work in health and have done undergrad and postgraduate stats, but am NOT an expert in this. If anyone can make it clearer or refute it that's fine.