Coronavirus Outbreak

[jirskyr]

Clear. Smart. Quick measures - https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12318673

How are our NZ neighbours getting it right and us so wrong?

Except they haven’t. Those restrictions they just brought in are the same as we had here before last Sunday but NZ are actually in worse position than us. At 34 cases per 1M they are where we were last week. Yesterday their growth rate was 1.3 which is closer to Italy’s growth rate at the same stage and way above Australian rate.

What have they done better?

Fair comment mate. I haven't done that level of analysis. I just know that NZ was first to action the borders and we should have had that schools policy last week with kids from essential services only (I don't believe that is NSW policy yet?).

They do benefit from a single level of govt and I think that's a big factor. The division of power in Australia makes it complicated with states coming up with different approaches and creating confusion. Same thing happened with the fires.

If what you say is true regarding their growth rate, then I'll retract my comments.

Other NZ advantages right now:
- approx 3.8M visitors per year NZ vs 8.5M visitors to Australia
- approx 13.5M domestic passengers per annum, Australia averages 5M per month
- population 5M, Australia 25M
- there are half a million more people in Sydney than all of New Zealand, in an area 4% the total land area of NZ
- small border
- highly isolated country

All that travel has been turned off now, but you can't prevent citizens from returning home, and international arrivals still account for a massive % of Australian cases (also probably for NZ, but they just have less people coming in overall and fewer returning citizens).

I think it's a mistake to congratulate or overly criticise any moderate-effect country at this time, because we just don't know the outcomes from individual measures and how the specific population/culture will adapt. For example, everyone was talking up Singapore as a prime example of "curve flattening" last week, but they themselves are seeing a large % upswing in cases - 33 days to reach first 100 cases, 13 days for the second 100, 4 days for the next 100, 3 days each for the next 100s, up to current 507.

 

[jirskyr]

Not picking on you here Jay, just using your post as an indicative post of those praising Jacinda’s methods relative to Australia.

In some respects it's becoming a popularity contest, and that is pointless right now. As is the nitpicky criticism of the Prime Minister - I'm not even a Liberal voter but you just have to let the guy get on with his job. PM has a team of experts giving him advice, and I don't believe (I can't say for sure) that he is doing anything against the majority advice he is receiving. So you might be wanting to waggle a finger at the PM, but he's just relaying the advice of his council of medical, epidemiology and economy experts, and not every country's experts agree.

Giving Jacinda a thumbs up is a really easy thing to do from a distance, I assume most of us not living in or having ever lived in New Zealand under her stewardship, and she has a certain benign cult of personality, which she fairly earned, which gives her more shine as a leader than perhaps she actually deserves as a policy-maker.

 

[tigerbalm]

Not picking on you here Jay, just using your post as an indicative post of those praising Jacinda’s methods relative to Australia.

In some respects it's becoming a popularity contest, and that is pointless right now. As is the nitpicky criticism of the Prime Minister - I'm not even a Liberal voter but you just have to let the guy get on with his job. PM has a team of experts giving him advice, and I don't believe (I can't say for sure) that he is doing anything against the majority advice he is receiving. So you might be wanting to waggle a finger at the PM, but he's just relaying the advice of his council of medical, epidemiology and economy experts, and not every country's experts agree.

Giving Jacinda a thumbs up is a really easy thing to do from a distance, I assume most of us not living in or having ever lived in New Zealand under her stewardship, and she has a certain benign cult of personality, which she fairly earned, which gives her more shine as a leader than perhaps she actually deserves as a policy-maker.

Great post.

 

[twentyforty]

Just listened to ACMO Paul Kelly give an update and discuss the statistics. I think he and his team are doing a fine job. Currently we have hospitalised only 97. Our death rate is currently extremely low compared to world statistics and our hospitals and medical staff are prepared.

 

[Nelson]

Not picking on you here Jay, just using your post as an indicative post of those praising Jacinda’s methods relative to Australia.

In some respects it's becoming a popularity contest, and that is pointless right now. As is the nitpicky criticism of the Prime Minister - I'm not even a Liberal voter but you just have to let the guy get on with his job. PM has a team of experts giving him advice, and I don't believe (I can't say for sure) that he is doing anything against the majority advice he is receiving. So you might be wanting to waggle a finger at the PM, but he's just relaying the advice of his council of medical, epidemiology and economy experts, and not every country's experts agree.

Giving Jacinda a thumbs up is a really easy thing to do from a distance, I assume most of us not living in or having ever lived in New Zealand under her stewardship, and she has a certain benign cult of personality, which she fairly earned, which gives her more shine as a leader than perhaps she actually deserves as a policy-maker.

I'm not a fan of the approach that has been taken with schools and day cares in NSW. Leaving them open but suggesting to parents that they not send their kids is a weak and unfair approach. First, it's an indecisive position to take at a time when parents are looking for certainty in leadership. Secondly, it puts unfair moral pressure on parents to keep their kids at home while they still have to wear the economic consequences (like continuing to pay day care fees).

 

[Tiger5150]

There has been a bit of talk in this thread, including from me as well about Australia's relatively low death rate compared to the rest of the world.

It has just dawned on me that the situation with the death rates is exactly the same as what we were discussing the other day with the recovery rates.

When we work out death rates as a percentage we have been doing it on todays case figures, so today we have 2369 cases, 8 deaths so 0.3%.

What Ive just realised is that (Ive read) it takes 17-20 days for people to die so again, like the recovery rates, we need to look into the past. 17 days ago we had about 100 cases and in that context its a different situation. Im sure its not 10% but its going to be higher and because of this exponential anomaly, I think we will see the death rate signifiantly grow (exponentially) in the coming days.

 

[Tiger5150]

Just listened to ACMO Paul Kelly give an update and discuss the statistics. I think he and his team are doing a fine job. Currently we have hospitalised only 97. Our death rate is currently extremely low compared to world statistics and our hospitals and medical staff are prepared.

97 is a sharp increase on 13 two days ago. For the reasons IVe given above, I think the death numbers will also rise soon to numbers more resembling world statistics.

 

[tigerbalm]

Not picking on you here Jay, just using your post as an indicative post of those praising Jacinda’s methods relative to Australia.

In some respects it's becoming a popularity contest, and that is pointless right now. As is the nitpicky criticism of the Prime Minister - I'm not even a Liberal voter but you just have to let the guy get on with his job. PM has a team of experts giving him advice, and I don't believe (I can't say for sure) that he is doing anything against the majority advice he is receiving. So you might be wanting to waggle a finger at the PM, but he's just relaying the advice of his council of medical, epidemiology and economy experts, and not every country's experts agree.

Giving Jacinda a thumbs up is a really easy thing to do from a distance, I assume most of us not living in or having ever lived in New Zealand under her stewardship, and she has a certain benign cult of personality, which she fairly earned, which gives her more shine as a leader than perhaps she actually deserves as a policy-maker.

I'm not a fan of the approach that has been taken with schools and day cares in NSW. Leaving them open but suggesting to parents that they not send their kids is a weak and unfair approach. First, it's an indecisive position to take at a time when parents are looking for certainty in leadership. Secondly, it puts unfair moral pressure on parents to keep their kids at home while they still have to wear the economic consequences (like continuing to pay day care fees).

I keep seeing this same comment over and over again and I really think people are missing the point. I'm sure he would have loved to have just shut the country down and let this all pass and press play on the economy in 3 months. That's not how it works. At this stage he's mitigating risk to not only the health of Australia but the Australia that will be left once this passes. None of this is ideal but to just hammer him on the school closure decision is naive.


For what its worth, not a scomo fan before this but coming around. If he can steer the country through this and avoid a complete economic meltdown while still keeping the inevitable death rate at a low % Ill be forever grateful.

 

[Tigerboy]

There has been a bit of talk in this thread, including from me as well about Australia's relatively low death rate compared to the rest of the world.

It has just dawned on me that the situation with the death rates is exactly the same as what we were discussing the other day with the recovery rates.

When we work out death rates as a percentage we have been doing it on todays case figures, so today we have 2369 cases, 8 deaths so 0.3%.

What Ive just realised is that (Ive read) it takes 17-20 days for people to die so again, like the recovery rates, we need to look into the past. 17 days ago we had about 100 cases and in that context its a different situation. Im sure its not 10% but its going to be higher and because of this exponential anomaly, I think we will see the death rate signifiantly grow (exponentially) in the coming days.

You heard us!! 🙏🏻 Mate, it’s really good to have not only some quality banter, but reasonable and considered (and intelligent posts). Good way to pass a lot of pent up feelings and time.

Love the interesting, heartfelt posts being put out. Keep it up Wests Tigers Forumers🧡

Through it in no time ! Make the NRL great again

 

[twentyforty]

Just listened to ACMO Paul Kelly give an update and discuss the statistics. I think he and his team are doing a fine job. Currently we have hospitalised only 97. Our death rate is currently extremely low compared to world statistics and our hospitals and medical staff are prepared.


97 is a sharp increase on 13 two days ago. For the reasons IVe given above, I think the death numbers will also rise soon to numbers more resembling world statistics.

Most of those infected have presented with mild symptoms. And those deaths have only occurred in patients over the age of 70. I’m postponing some grade 2 surgery because I think we’ll need plenty of beds soon. SARS version 1 had a death rate of 15% and was easily contained compared to this upgraded model which is more contagious.

 

[Geo]

There has been a bit of talk in this thread, including from me as well about Australia's relatively low death rate compared to the rest of the world.

It has just dawned on me that the situation with the death rates is exactly the same as what we were discussing the other day with the recovery rates.

When we work out death rates as a percentage we have been doing it on todays case figures, so today we have 2369 cases, 8 deaths so 0.3%.

What Ive just realised is that (Ive read) it takes 17-20 days for people to die so again, like the recovery rates, we need to look into the past. 17 days ago we had about 100 cases and in that context its a different situation. Im sure its not 10% but its going to be higher and because of this exponential anomaly, I think we will see the death rate signifiantly grow (exponentially) in the coming days.

You heard us!! ?? Mate, it’s really good to have not only some quality banter, but reasonable and considered (and intelligent posts). Good way to pass a lot of pent up feelings and time.

Love the interesting, heartfelt posts being put out. Keep it up Wests Tigers Forumers?

Through it in no time ! Make the NRL great again

You know what else is good..it's your go

https://weststigersforum.com/topic/30744/nrl-the-best-2010-19/71

 

[Nelson]

Not picking on you here Jay, just using your post as an indicative post of those praising Jacinda’s methods relative to Australia.

In some respects it's becoming a popularity contest, and that is pointless right now. As is the nitpicky criticism of the Prime Minister - I'm not even a Liberal voter but you just have to let the guy get on with his job. PM has a team of experts giving him advice, and I don't believe (I can't say for sure) that he is doing anything against the majority advice he is receiving. So you might be wanting to waggle a finger at the PM, but he's just relaying the advice of his council of medical, epidemiology and economy experts, and not every country's experts agree.

Giving Jacinda a thumbs up is a really easy thing to do from a distance, I assume most of us not living in or having ever lived in New Zealand under her stewardship, and she has a certain benign cult of personality, which she fairly earned, which gives her more shine as a leader than perhaps she actually deserves as a policy-maker.

I'm not a fan of the approach that has been taken with schools and day cares in NSW. Leaving them open but suggesting to parents that they not send their kids is a weak and unfair approach. First, it's an indecisive position to take at a time when parents are looking for certainty in leadership. Secondly, it puts unfair moral pressure on parents to keep their kids at home while they still have to wear the economic consequences (like continuing to pay day care fees).



I keep seeing this same comment over and over again and I really think people are missing the point. I'm sure he would have loved to have just shut the country down and let this all pass and press play on the economy in 3 months. That's not how it works. At this stage he's mitigating risk to not only the health of Australia but the Australia that will be left once this passes. None of this is ideal but to just hammer him on the school closure decision is naive.


For what its worth, not a scomo fan before this but coming around. If he can steer the country through this and avoid a complete economic meltdown while still keeping the inevitable death rate at a low % Ill be forever grateful.

1. I did not say anything about Morrison. I did not hammer him. It was more a criticism of NSW State government given Gladys was the one who suggested parents not send their kids.
2. I did not say that keeping the schools open was the wrong call, I criticised the hedged approach that was taken. Open them or close them depending upon the health advice with some regard to the economic consequences - fine. But don't hedge. Be decisive. Lead.

Digest people's statements a bit more before claiming they're "missing the point" or "naive".

 

[Tim Sheens]

There has been a bit of talk in this thread, including from me as well about Australia's relatively low death rate compared to the rest of the world.

It has just dawned on me that the situation with the death rates is exactly the same as what we were discussing the other day with the recovery rates.

When we work out death rates as a percentage we have been doing it on todays case figures, so today we have 2369 cases, 8 deaths so 0.3%.

What Ive just realised is that (Ive read) it takes 17-20 days for people to die so again, like the recovery rates, we need to look into the past. 17 days ago we had about 100 cases and in that context its a different situation. Im sure its not 10% but its going to be higher and because of this exponential anomaly, I think we will see the death rate signifiantly grow (exponentially) in the coming days.

Yep, all about the lag and then how many ventilators are available when it rolls in, as they allow more bodies to concentrate increased energy to fight the virus, rather than it's first priority of trying to breathe.

 

[swag_tiger]

China is re-opening everything on the 8th of April, could be a disaster waiting to happen.

 

[Hangonaminute]

Why did the centre of disease control and prevention start advertising for "quarantine program managers" in Texas, California, New York, Washington, Illinois etc last November?

Way before covid19 was a thing

https://jobs.cdc.gov/job/dallas/public-health-advisor-quarantine-program/250/14136286

 

[happy_tiger]

School holidays started early ...some parents need an ass kicking of biblical proportions

 

[hobbo1]

School holidays started early ...some parents need an ass kicking of biblical proportions

Kids running around in numbers !

 

[happy_tiger]

Wonder if it is worth our politicians looking at possibly creating something from the ashes so to speak ....during the depression the US built massive projects and created employment for many thousands of people

Dam a North Qld river .....double lanes on the entire National Highway .......reforestation projects .....cleaning our environment ........

 

[Snake]

School holidays started early ...some parents need an ass kicking of biblical proportions

Kids running around in numbers !

They will not be in NSW there parents will be fined a $1k a pop ! That will wake mummy and daddy up ..

 

[Tim Sheens]

Just looking at this graph from health.gov.au and the thing that stands out for me is that unlike the other states and territories, NSW has less than half of cases as overseas aquired and the difference is quite stark.