Coronavirus Outbreak

[pawsandclaws1]

This could show where the blame game is starting ..or is the NSW Govt attempting to try and shift the blame

msn.com/en-au/news/australia/nsw-police-homicide-squad-launch-criminal-investigation-into-ruby-princess-deaths/ar-BB12b313?ocid=ientp

This is the wrong way to go about it. It’s NSW govt trying to shift the blame. Normally you would have an enquiry and then if criminal activity was found charges would be laid. The way this had been setup is that the outcome has been determined and now a criminal investigation is taking place to fit the outcome, rather than find the truth.

Did you watch the Ch 7 article last night Mike ??

Can’t say I did. I did read the article you linked to though.

They had a Ruby Princess story on last night on 7 ...take out Rudd's histrionics and it was very informative ..majority of the blame needs to go to the Ruby ...they knew they had Covid patients when they turned around after Ardern closed the ports in NZ .....but the NSW health should have tested all passengers

They had ambulances waiting on the ships arrival into Sydney

Passengers claimed they were basically shoved off the ship like sheep

The ambulances at the dock were to take passengers with back and heart problems to hospital.

We know Operations at Carnival gave assurances Covid19 was not an issue in the ship, when in fact it was a significant issue.

NSW is the primary entry point into Aust via Kingsford Smith and Circular Quay. NSW Health is doing an outstanding job managing the containment of the virus and looking after patients in hospitals. At the first sign of trouble some want to stick the boot in. Who would you believe NSW Health or Carnival?

As for the passengers they are looking to blame someone when in fact they need to look in the mirror. More passengers off that ship will die before this ends.

I may have misheard it but during that CH 7 show last night, but I thought they said one of those people who were on the Ambulance died from the Virus ? If so I would question what Carnival are saying.

I believe an additional passenger needed transport to hospital and she/he was the first passenger to die.

 

[Tiger5150]


Interesting graphic. For mine it shows our trajectory closer to South Korea than Japan, Singapore or Hong Kong. Specifically we have a lot more cases (careful that graph is logarithmic, not linear) but have almost stopped the growth rate. I think this has *massive* implications in that whilst you havent stopped or slowed the growth rate you have no chance of reopening the economy whereas IMO South Korea has a stronger opportunity to get back to something like normal.

Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong have low cases but relatively constant growth rates which may mean the damage to their economies may be more protracted.

No one knows really, but thats my take on it.

 

[happy_tiger]


Interesting graphic. For mine it shows our trajectory closer to South Korea than Japan, Singapore or Hong Kong. Specifically we have a lot more cases (careful that graph is logarithmic, not linear) but have almost stopped the growth rate. I think this has *massive* implications in that whilst you havent stopped or slowed the growth rate you have no chance of reopening the economy whereas IMO South Korea has a stronger opportunity to get back to something like normal.

Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong have low cases but relatively constant growth rates which may mean the damage to their economies may be more protracted.

No one knows really, but thats my take on it.

Can picture Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon supporters chanting USA USA USA because they are winning

 

[hobbo1]


Interesting graphic. For mine it shows our trajectory closer to South Korea than Japan, Singapore or Hong Kong. Specifically we have a lot more cases (careful that graph is logarithmic, not linear) but have almost stopped the growth rate. I think this has *massive* implications in that whilst you havent stopped or slowed the growth rate you have no chance of reopening the economy whereas IMO South Korea has a stronger opportunity to get back to something like normal.

Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong have low cases but relatively constant growth rates which may mean the damage to their economies may be more protracted.

No one knows really, but thats my take on it.

Can picture Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon supporters chanting USA USA USA because they are winning

?....really

 

[happy_tiger]


Interesting graphic. For mine it shows our trajectory closer to South Korea than Japan, Singapore or Hong Kong. Specifically we have a lot more cases (careful that graph is logarithmic, not linear) but have almost stopped the growth rate. I think this has *massive* implications in that whilst you havent stopped or slowed the growth rate you have no chance of reopening the economy whereas IMO South Korea has a stronger opportunity to get back to something like normal.

Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong have low cases but relatively constant growth rates which may mean the damage to their economies may be more protracted.

No one knows really, but thats my take on it.

Can picture Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon supporters chanting USA USA USA because they are winning

?....really

Go jump on Trumps row boat with Col then .....ramming speed

 

[GNR4LIFE]


Interesting graphic. For mine it shows our trajectory closer to South Korea than Japan, Singapore or Hong Kong. Specifically we have a lot more cases (careful that graph is logarithmic, not linear) but have almost stopped the growth rate. I think this has *massive* implications in that whilst you havent stopped or slowed the growth rate you have no chance of reopening the economy whereas IMO South Korea has a stronger opportunity to get back to something like normal.

Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong have low cases but relatively constant growth rates which may mean the damage to their economies may be more protracted.

No one knows really, but thats my take on it.

Can picture Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon supporters chanting USA USA USA because they are winning

I know one of Donald”s catchphrases is America first, but this is ridiculous.

 

[bathursttiger1]

https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/ruby-princess-failed-to-declare-covid19-cases/video/acb251e16e73798d60c50c8f9d7d8f5e

I've already read that and all that happened after NSW Health declared them low risk, NSW Health were told they had patients in board that were displaying flu like symptoms and tested negative to the flu. They requested the swabs so they could test them for Covid 19 and then let them disembark without an onboard medical assessment. Yes the ship mislead the port authority but NSW Health had an opportunity to catch this and missed it.

Criminal investigation to commence. Discrepancy about Information provided by Carnival to Port Authority. Oversight by Coroner.

I saw that, but NSW Health had already missed the chance to stop this. The fact Carnival lied to the Port Authority is disgusting but that doesn't clear NSW Health that knew there were multiple passengers with flu like symptoms and actually requested the swabs so they could test for Covid 19. They let the passengers off knowing they were waiting on covid 19 test results!

It is a significant issue as the provision of critical information including all
facts ensures a well informed decision is made. That also determines the response by NSW Health.

I hope there are criminal charges laid against Carnival. NSW Health had enough info to make a better decision than they one they made!

The decision NSW Health made was criminal in my opinion. All the govt wants to do now is brush over it. Let’s kick all the cruise ships out so we can’t stuff it up again. I also think that decision is criminal and inhumane, we are better than that. There are ways to handle the crew left on those ships and forcing them out into International Waters should not be one of them. A pure political decision of epic arse covering proportions.

If the information provided to the decision maker is allegedly misleading or untrue, and that decision informs the medical response, then the outcome will be poor. Channel 9 has been rabid in its pursuit of NSW Health. The ABC has a much more realistic report

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-05/nsw-police-investigate-ruby-princess-cruise-coronavirus-deaths/12123212

NSW Health had ambulances on the wharf, they knew there were issues. There are no excuses for such incompetence.

Carnival informed NSW Ambulance Service Corvid 19. was not an issue! The ambulances were there to take two passengers to hospital, one with a back complaint and another with a heart issue.

Carnival would not have known, they did not test for it, only influenza. NSW Health failed to put two and two together, while asking for the swabs so they could test for Covid 19. NSW Health allowed passengers off the ship without any restrictions. Abject failure of judgement by NSW Health.

The Police Commissioner stated there was clear evidence Corvid19 came off the ship in NZ. Therefore to tell authorities in another country it was not an issue is why we have this debacle and new investigation.

No one here is arguing that Carnival are blameless, Carnival appear to have been criminally misleading in the info they provided Australian agencies. That does not absolve NSW Health of blame, there was enough info to put restrictions in place!

There were Commonwealth and State protocols in place. Had correct info been communicated by Carnival, this would have triggered a different response. It would not change the fait of passengers as this was determined when they chose to cruise.

Some of the investigative journalists should dig to ascertain if the virus was brought into the ship from other Carnival ships by crew transfers or via inadequate cleaning.

Then the protocols were wrong, if you are conducting tests for covid 19 and the protocol is to let those people off a ship, into taxi, on public transport, into hotels, onto planes, into regional areas with low transmission then who ever wrote and approved those protocols are as much to blame as the people on the Ruby Princess that were hiding info. This may rightly end Carnival cruises an they deserve it, but other mistakes were made too. For some reason you only want to address one issue and not the rest!

Was the virus on board prior to leaving .. not cleaned properly or some of the crew already infected and known ? This obviously does not make the decision about docking any easier to stomach ... which ever way this ship was a floating morgue , I hate to think what would of happened if they did not dock and left at sea , the Japanese experience should have had red flags every where . Imo there would of been a lot more deaths if they did not dock !

I'm not saying they shouldn't have docked, they shouldn't have been allowed to disembark and go on their merry way! Should have went straight into quarantine.

The Ruby Princess should have been sent to Christmas Island and the passengers quarantined, like the Australians that were evacuated from Wuhan.

It could well have been however there are no facilities it disembark 2700 passengers from such a large ship.

Since Carnival was assuring authorities Covid19 was not a concern on the ship it would be a fine place. However we know now Covid19 was active and medical facilities on the island are rudimentary. So how sensible is it putting 70 to 90 year olds on such a remote location?

Mate we have been on 7 cruises with the tenders they have they can disembark passengers anywhere.

 

[cochise]


Interesting graphic. For mine it shows our trajectory closer to South Korea than Japan, Singapore or Hong Kong. Specifically we have a lot more cases (careful that graph is logarithmic, not linear) but have almost stopped the growth rate. I think this has *massive* implications in that whilst you havent stopped or slowed the growth rate you have no chance of reopening the economy whereas IMO South Korea has a stronger opportunity to get back to something like normal.

Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong have low cases but relatively constant growth rates which may mean the damage to their economies may be more protracted.

No one knows really, but thats my take on it.

I really have a dislike of logarithmic graphs!

 

[jadtiger]


Interesting graphic. For mine it shows our trajectory closer to South Korea than Japan, Singapore or Hong Kong. Specifically we have a lot more cases (careful that graph is logarithmic, not linear) but have almost stopped the growth rate. I think this has *massive* implications in that whilst you havent stopped or slowed the growth rate you have no chance of reopening the economy whereas IMO South Korea has a stronger opportunity to get back to something like normal.

Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong have low cases but relatively constant growth rates which may mean the damage to their economies may be more protracted.

No one knows really, but thats my take on it.

I really have a dislike of logarithmic graphs!

Looks like the yanks are easily winning the race that nobody wants to be in.Can only hope the trend worldwide starts to taper off and decline very soon.As to be expected countries that are very secretive and suppress information dont seem to supply figures(Russia,North Korea)in particular

 

[pawsandclaws1]

This could show where the blame game is starting ..or is the NSW Govt attempting to try and shift the blame

msn.com/en-au/news/australia/nsw-police-homicide-squad-launch-criminal-investigation-into-ruby-princess-deaths/ar-BB12b313?ocid=ientp

This is the wrong way to go about it. It’s NSW govt trying to shift the blame. Normally you would have an enquiry and then if criminal activity was found charges would be laid. The way this had been setup is that the outcome has been determined and now a criminal investigation is taking place to fit the outcome, rather than find the truth.

Did you watch the Ch 7 article last night Mike ??

Can’t say I did. I did read the article you linked to though.

They had a Ruby Princess story on last night on 7 ...take out Rudd's histrionics and it was very informative ..majority of the blame needs to go to the Ruby ...they knew they had Covid patients when they turned around after Ardern closed the ports in NZ .....but the NSW health should have tested all passengers

They had ambulances waiting on the ships arrival into Sydney

Passengers claimed they were basically shoved off the ship like sheep

The ambulances at the dock were to take passengers with back and heart problems to hospital.

We know Operations at Carnival gave assurances Covid19 was not an issue in the ship, when in fact it was a significant issue.

NSW is the primary entry point into Aust via Kingsford Smith and Circular Quay. NSW Health is doing an outstanding job managing the containment of the virus and looking after patients in hospitals. At the first sign of trouble some want to stick the boot in. Who would you believe NSW Health or Carnival?

As for the passengers they are looking to blame someone when in fact they need to look in the mirror. More passengers off that ship will die before this ends.

I may have misheard it but during that CH 7 show last night, but I thought they said one of those people who were on the Ambulance died from the Virus ? If so I would question what Carnival are saying.

I believe an additional passenger needed transport to hospital and she/he was the first passenger to die.

SMH has an article this morning about the call logs held by the Ports Minister between the Ruby Princess and officers from the NSW Ports Authority. In essence, senior NSW Govt Ministers want the logs released. The article suggests the logs contain details about the information given to NSW authorities and support the Premier and Health Minister. These will now form part of the Police investigation.

 

[twentyforty]


Interesting graphic. For mine it shows our trajectory closer to South Korea than Japan, Singapore or Hong Kong. Specifically we have a lot more cases (careful that graph is logarithmic, not linear) but have almost stopped the growth rate. I think this has *massive* implications in that whilst you havent stopped or slowed the growth rate you have no chance of reopening the economy whereas IMO South Korea has a stronger opportunity to get back to something like normal.

Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong have low cases but relatively constant growth rates which may mean the damage to their economies may be more protracted.

No one knows really, but thats my take on it.

I really have a dislike of logarithmic graphs!

Looks like the yanks are easily winning the race that nobody wants to be in.Can only hope the trend worldwide starts to taper off and decline very soon.As to be expected countries that are very secretive and suppress information dont seem to supply figures(Russia,North Korea)in particular

If the Times’ article I was reading last week is accurate then China would be streaks ahead. It suggested their figures be increased by a factor of 20, based on anecdotal evidence and the number of earns being issued by the 7 funeral services in Wuhan.

 

[GNR4LIFE]


Interesting graphic. For mine it shows our trajectory closer to South Korea than Japan, Singapore or Hong Kong. Specifically we have a lot more cases (careful that graph is logarithmic, not linear) but have almost stopped the growth rate. I think this has *massive* implications in that whilst you havent stopped or slowed the growth rate you have no chance of reopening the economy whereas IMO South Korea has a stronger opportunity to get back to something like normal.

Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong have low cases but relatively constant growth rates which may mean the damage to their economies may be more protracted.

No one knows really, but thats my take on it.

I really have a dislike of logarithmic graphs!

Looks like the yanks are easily winning the race that nobody wants to be in.Can only hope the trend worldwide starts to taper off and decline very soon.As to be expected countries that are very secretive and suppress information dont seem to supply figures(Russia,North Korea)in particular

At the rate the US are going, they will surge past 1 million infections. There’s no sign of it slowing down over there. Cases there are more than triple the next most affected nation.

 

[Tiger5150]

I’m having difficulty in understanding social distancing rules? It seems ok to stand in a queue to vote but a funeral must be limited to 10 mourners. It seems ok for hairdressers to continue to work, but beaches must be closed because the bathers are getting too close?
Has this pandemic shown us how ineffective our political system is ? Or are we just lacking leadership? I can understand why we need to take advice from WHO , but we always seem to be behind the pace? Russia closed its borders, and started contact tracing, in January. I’m not suggesting Russia is a model to follow or a country I would like to live in , merely pointing to decisive leadership.


Not having a go at you, nor am I necessarily defending the Govt or leadership, but what exactly do you think they should do? Are you suggesting a full lockdown?

Seems that most people are screaming that the Govt "should do more!!!" but I think it seems to be a lot of people who would not vote Libs in any situation.

Personally, I dont want the Govt to do more, or do less. I want them to take the advice of ALL the experts available to them to chart a course that navigates the tricky path of minimising deaths, ensuring our health system is not overwhelmed yet maintaining the maximum economic heartbeat possible.

Of course the natural reaction is to think to stop everything, shut down everything in total lockdown, and it may come to that and be necessary if it looks like it will overwhelm the health system, and Id be all for it in those circumstances, but if it is possible to reduce the rate of spread to a point that the health system can cope, yet keep as much of the economy running, then for me that is the best path.

This may seem callous for want of a better word, but when this is over, we are going to need to climb out of it and the depth of the decline economically will have a massive impact on many peoples lives for years to come and it will be the lower socioeconomic levels hit hardest. Rich people with assets will make it through.

The natural reaction is always 1 death is too many, but we average 4500 deaths a year for influenza and we dont shut down the economy to save those deaths. I am NOT suggeting this is the same as the flu, its not and if we did nothing there would be more than 10 x that number dead, but there does need to be a balance between possibility of deaths and possibility of economic depression.


5150, I’m not having a go at you either and I’m not wanting to get into a any pee high club discussion.
Just pointing out my observation that we always appear to be a country which follows, rather than one which gets on the front foot instinctively and decisively does what’s best for Australia and it’s citizens. There was a time when citizenship meant something. Anyway, cheer on your club if you like, but it doesn’t explain the failings in our political system.
Here’s an example..
https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/6698458/hairdressers-call-for-clear-messaging-directive-to-close-from-government/


Mate I dont necessarily disagree with you and I am **definitely** not wanting to get into a club discussion, in fact I dont actually feel like I have a club in this discussion, definitely not one Im cheering on.

Part of what prompted me to respond to your post was listening to discussions about what is going on in the UK. Their strategy is a bit different to what is going on in Italy & US and to a great extent appears to be a lot more successful. Their strategy is not based on auto lock down but involves lock down when required.

Im not sure what you are specifically referring to when you say the Govt which follows, particularly when we were the second country to shut borders to China, Iran & Italy. It is entirely possible that the strategy that the Aus Govt is following, on the advice of their experts, is entirely intentional and what is happening is EXACTLY what they are trying to do, but merely is different to the instinctive reaction of the general population, who aren't aware of the advice they are getting from the expertise.


Obviously not everyone is listening to the same experts.
I don’t have a problem with the governments staggered approach, although the downside is they need to wait 14 days to see what’s working. It was usually the approach I’ve taken, whether in business or with my health. If we follow the Shorten / Albo approach which is ‘throw the kitchen sink at it and hope for the best, then if it doesn’t work it’s harder to find out why. Or if it does work we can only speculate which remedy was more effective. I don’t know if the enormity of our problem is registering with some. I’ve heard from Doc the damage the virus causes to the lungs is irreparable.

It is hard to argue with the measures so far when the data is starting to turn for us, we know have to see if we need to make more restrictions to get it turn enough!


I was not going to post this for a few days to see how it panned out, but what you are saying correlates well with it. Four days ago the exponential rate of growth dropped markedly from a steady 1.23 - 1.25 down to 1.13. But since then it seems to have instantly found a new steady level with four days 1.13, 1.15, 1.13, 1.14. Hoping it drops again but if it stays there, more measures might be needed.



Well a couple of people wanted an update so here we are.....

Yesterday there was a significant dip in the exponential growth multiplier. It dipped down from a steady 1.3 for a few days, down below 1.1 to 1.09. This is pretty significant as it may be the second round of restrictions washing through. For those playing along at home, to be steady at 1.1 we need less that 4382 cases by the end of today.



This is obviously encouraging as slowing it down is obviously a good thing, but how does this end? At what point do we start thinking about re-opening the economy (Im not suggesting soon)?

I could imagine a scenario where parts of the local economy are reopened, but with disasters all over the world (US and parts of Europe), once its under control here I can see our borders closed for a LONG time.


Ok so something is definitely happening and so far it looks good. Another big dip yesterday in the exponential growth multiplier . It was steady at 1.23 for weeks, then spent four days at 1.13 and has spent the last two days going down. 1.09 Sunday and 1.06 yesterday.

Its very encouraging and shows that the restrictions and changes in behaviour are working. I have a couple of worries. People are behaving better, but not perfectly (we are Aussies) and I dont think we can get that multiplier down to 1 based on restrictions alone, so what does that mean? We get to a low multiplier (growth rate) and stay indoors?

I also worry that if we get teh growth rate low enough people will say "screw this" and go back to normal life and rates will bounce back up.

Anyway, so far so good. For those playing along, to keep it at 1.06 we need to keep the total to under 4523. At the time of posting (9:30) it was already 4364.




Another update. Yesterday stayed pretty steady with exponential multiplier of 1.06. I can see some merit in Mikes comment about reduced testing however. TO stay steady at 1.06 we need todays cases to stay below 4830. We are at 4711 already at 9am.




Todays update. Yesterday was steady, very steady unfortunately. After an encouraging dip in the exponential multiplier, we have now had three days steady at 1.06.

Hoping the stricter measures start to wash through and we are not stuck here.

Need to keep total cases under 5150 today.




Todays update.

A slight dip again yesterday. After three days at 1.06, the exponential multiplier dipped slightly to 1.05. Hopefully continues down but we might be getting to the point of diminishing returns. To maintain 1.05 growth or less, we need todays total to stay under 5400.

Had a thought this morning when considering someone else pointing out that new cases seem to be almost staying under 300 a day and this being a good thing. I agree that relative to what could be it is a reasonable result, but at current death rates, that would still 3-4 deaths a day (delayed by 20 days).




Update for Friday 03/04/20

Another encouraging dip in the exponential multiplier. Dropped down from 1.056 to 1.041. Very encouraging. To maintain 1.04 we need the total cases to remain under 5570 today. at 10am they are still at last nights total 5350.




Saturdays Update
Another encouraging dip. THe exponential multiplier dropped under 1.04 to 1.037. To keep it this low we need to stay under 5757 total cases today.




I'd like to briefly derail this NSW Health & Border Force discussion with some boring numbers.

The trajectory continued downwards yesterday. The exponential multiplier dipped lower than Saturdays 1.037 to 1.024 which is very encouraging. Only 137 new cases (still equals 1-2 deaths in 2 weeks) . Clearly the measures are working. Fingers crossed there is no reversal. I hope Aussies being Aussies we dont revert to close enough and start to get out and about for a while. To stay at this low point, we need the total cases to stay below 5827 today.

Personally I'd love to see the multiplier get to 1, stick at it for 3-4 weeks then open everything but the borders back up.



Todays update. This seems too good to be true. Yesterday the exponential multiplier dropped again under 1.02 to 1.018. To maintain this we need to stay under 5905 today.



 

[Tiger5150]


Interesting graphic. For mine it shows our trajectory closer to South Korea than Japan, Singapore or Hong Kong. Specifically we have a lot more cases (careful that graph is logarithmic, not linear) but have almost stopped the growth rate. I think this has *massive* implications in that whilst you havent stopped or slowed the growth rate you have no chance of reopening the economy whereas IMO South Korea has a stronger opportunity to get back to something like normal.

Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong have low cases but relatively constant growth rates which may mean the damage to their economies may be more protracted.

No one knows really, but thats my take on it.

I really have a dislike of logarithmic graphs!

Looks like the yanks are easily winning the race that nobody wants to be in.Can only hope the trend worldwide starts to taper off and decline very soon.As to be expected countries that are very secretive and suppress information dont seem to supply figures(Russia,North Korea)in particular

At the rate the US are going, they will surge past 1 million infections. There’s no sign of it slowing down over there. Cases there are more than triple the next most affected nation.

The US are the 22nd most affected nation on a per capita basis with most of western Europe above it. US has also carried out WAY more tests than any nation. That may explain the numbers.

 

[Geo]


Interesting graphic. For mine it shows our trajectory closer to South Korea than Japan, Singapore or Hong Kong. Specifically we have a lot more cases (careful that graph is logarithmic, not linear) but have almost stopped the growth rate. I think this has *massive* implications in that whilst you havent stopped or slowed the growth rate you have no chance of reopening the economy whereas IMO South Korea has a stronger opportunity to get back to something like normal.

Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong have low cases but relatively constant growth rates which may mean the damage to their economies may be more protracted.

No one knows really, but thats my take on it.

I really have a dislike of logarithmic graphs!

Looks like the yanks are easily winning the race that nobody wants to be in.Can only hope the trend worldwide starts to taper off and decline very soon.As to be expected countries that are very secretive and suppress information dont seem to supply figures(Russia,North Korea)in particular

At the rate the US are going, they will surge past 1 million infections. There’s no sign of it slowing down over there. Cases there are more than triple the next most affected nation.


The US are the 22nd most affected nation on a per capita basis with most of western Europe above it. US has also carried out WAY more tests than any nation. That may explain the numbers.

I agree with this..with a population of 350 million give or take the number of infected people (cases) will be higher...

Makes you question the figures coming out of the Asia region where some populations are nearer to a billion..

 

[jadtiger]


Interesting graphic. For mine it shows our trajectory closer to South Korea than Japan, Singapore or Hong Kong. Specifically we have a lot more cases (careful that graph is logarithmic, not linear) but have almost stopped the growth rate. I think this has *massive* implications in that whilst you havent stopped or slowed the growth rate you have no chance of reopening the economy whereas IMO South Korea has a stronger opportunity to get back to something like normal.

Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong have low cases but relatively constant growth rates which may mean the damage to their economies may be more protracted.

No one knows really, but thats my take on it.

I really have a dislike of logarithmic graphs!

Looks like the yanks are easily winning the race that nobody wants to be in.Can only hope the trend worldwide starts to taper off and decline very soon.As to be expected countries that are very secretive and suppress information dont seem to supply figures(Russia,North Korea)in particular


If the Times’ article I was reading last week is accurate then China would be streaks ahead. It suggested their figures be increased by a factor of 20, based on anecdotal evidence and the number of earns being issued by the 7 funeral services in Wuhan.

That possibly could have been acurate a week ago but the growth and infection rate of covid-19 is horrendous you can only hope it starts to decline world over and a vaccine is developed.

 

[diedpretty]

Is everyone happy with the jobkeeper allowance? I know i’m not impressed as i have been in the workforce for 40 years but am at new employment and casual for 5 months which is not a qualification for it , Go Figure

How come charity workers are eligible - i would have thought most charity workers are volunteers on no pay.

 

[mike]

Is everyone happy with the jobkeeper allowance? I know i’m not impressed as i have been in the workforce for 40 years but am at new employment and casual for 5 months which is not a qualification for it , Go Figure

How come charity workers are eligible - i would have thought most charity workers are volunteers on no pay.

Not at all. Charities are a mixture of paid workers and volunteers.

 

[Tiger5150]

I’m having difficulty in understanding social distancing rules? It seems ok to stand in a queue to vote but a funeral must be limited to 10 mourners. It seems ok for hairdressers to continue to work, but beaches must be closed because the bathers are getting too close?
Has this pandemic shown us how ineffective our political system is ? Or are we just lacking leadership? I can understand why we need to take advice from WHO , but we always seem to be behind the pace? Russia closed its borders, and started contact tracing, in January. I’m not suggesting Russia is a model to follow or a country I would like to live in , merely pointing to decisive leadership.


Not having a go at you, nor am I necessarily defending the Govt or leadership, but what exactly do you think they should do? Are you suggesting a full lockdown?

Seems that most people are screaming that the Govt "should do more!!!" but I think it seems to be a lot of people who would not vote Libs in any situation.

Personally, I dont want the Govt to do more, or do less. I want them to take the advice of ALL the experts available to them to chart a course that navigates the tricky path of minimising deaths, ensuring our health system is not overwhelmed yet maintaining the maximum economic heartbeat possible.

Of course the natural reaction is to think to stop everything, shut down everything in total lockdown, and it may come to that and be necessary if it looks like it will overwhelm the health system, and Id be all for it in those circumstances, but if it is possible to reduce the rate of spread to a point that the health system can cope, yet keep as much of the economy running, then for me that is the best path.

This may seem callous for want of a better word, but when this is over, we are going to need to climb out of it and the depth of the decline economically will have a massive impact on many peoples lives for years to come and it will be the lower socioeconomic levels hit hardest. Rich people with assets will make it through.

The natural reaction is always 1 death is too many, but we average 4500 deaths a year for influenza and we dont shut down the economy to save those deaths. I am NOT suggeting this is the same as the flu, its not and if we did nothing there would be more than 10 x that number dead, but there does need to be a balance between possibility of deaths and possibility of economic depression.


5150, I’m not having a go at you either and I’m not wanting to get into a any pee high club discussion.
Just pointing out my observation that we always appear to be a country which follows, rather than one which gets on the front foot instinctively and decisively does what’s best for Australia and it’s citizens. There was a time when citizenship meant something. Anyway, cheer on your club if you like, but it doesn’t explain the failings in our political system.
Here’s an example..
https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/6698458/hairdressers-call-for-clear-messaging-directive-to-close-from-government/


Mate I dont necessarily disagree with you and I am **definitely** not wanting to get into a club discussion, in fact I dont actually feel like I have a club in this discussion, definitely not one Im cheering on.

Part of what prompted me to respond to your post was listening to discussions about what is going on in the UK. Their strategy is a bit different to what is going on in Italy & US and to a great extent appears to be a lot more successful. Their strategy is not based on auto lock down but involves lock down when required.

Im not sure what you are specifically referring to when you say the Govt which follows, particularly when we were the second country to shut borders to China, Iran & Italy. It is entirely possible that the strategy that the Aus Govt is following, on the advice of their experts, is entirely intentional and what is happening is EXACTLY what they are trying to do, but merely is different to the instinctive reaction of the general population, who aren't aware of the advice they are getting from the expertise.


Obviously not everyone is listening to the same experts.
I don’t have a problem with the governments staggered approach, although the downside is they need to wait 14 days to see what’s working. It was usually the approach I’ve taken, whether in business or with my health. If we follow the Shorten / Albo approach which is ‘throw the kitchen sink at it and hope for the best, then if it doesn’t work it’s harder to find out why. Or if it does work we can only speculate which remedy was more effective. I don’t know if the enormity of our problem is registering with some. I’ve heard from Doc the damage the virus causes to the lungs is irreparable.

It is hard to argue with the measures so far when the data is starting to turn for us, we know have to see if we need to make more restrictions to get it turn enough!


I was not going to post this for a few days to see how it panned out, but what you are saying correlates well with it. Four days ago the exponential rate of growth dropped markedly from a steady 1.23 - 1.25 down to 1.13. But since then it seems to have instantly found a new steady level with four days 1.13, 1.15, 1.13, 1.14. Hoping it drops again but if it stays there, more measures might be needed.



Well a couple of people wanted an update so here we are.....

Yesterday there was a significant dip in the exponential growth multiplier. It dipped down from a steady 1.3 for a few days, down below 1.1 to 1.09. This is pretty significant as it may be the second round of restrictions washing through. For those playing along at home, to be steady at 1.1 we need less that 4382 cases by the end of today.



This is obviously encouraging as slowing it down is obviously a good thing, but how does this end? At what point do we start thinking about re-opening the economy (Im not suggesting soon)?

I could imagine a scenario where parts of the local economy are reopened, but with disasters all over the world (US and parts of Europe), once its under control here I can see our borders closed for a LONG time.


Ok so something is definitely happening and so far it looks good. Another big dip yesterday in the exponential growth multiplier . It was steady at 1.23 for weeks, then spent four days at 1.13 and has spent the last two days going down. 1.09 Sunday and 1.06 yesterday.

Its very encouraging and shows that the restrictions and changes in behaviour are working. I have a couple of worries. People are behaving better, but not perfectly (we are Aussies) and I dont think we can get that multiplier down to 1 based on restrictions alone, so what does that mean? We get to a low multiplier (growth rate) and stay indoors?

I also worry that if we get teh growth rate low enough people will say "screw this" and go back to normal life and rates will bounce back up.

Anyway, so far so good. For those playing along, to keep it at 1.06 we need to keep the total to under 4523. At the time of posting (9:30) it was already 4364.




Another update. Yesterday stayed pretty steady with exponential multiplier of 1.06. I can see some merit in Mikes comment about reduced testing however. TO stay steady at 1.06 we need todays cases to stay below 4830. We are at 4711 already at 9am.




Todays update. Yesterday was steady, very steady unfortunately. After an encouraging dip in the exponential multiplier, we have now had three days steady at 1.06.

Hoping the stricter measures start to wash through and we are not stuck here.

Need to keep total cases under 5150 today.




Todays update.

A slight dip again yesterday. After three days at 1.06, the exponential multiplier dipped slightly to 1.05. Hopefully continues down but we might be getting to the point of diminishing returns. To maintain 1.05 growth or less, we need todays total to stay under 5400.

Had a thought this morning when considering someone else pointing out that new cases seem to be almost staying under 300 a day and this being a good thing. I agree that relative to what could be it is a reasonable result, but at current death rates, that would still 3-4 deaths a day (delayed by 20 days).




Update for Friday 03/04/20

Another encouraging dip in the exponential multiplier. Dropped down from 1.056 to 1.041. Very encouraging. To maintain 1.04 we need the total cases to remain under 5570 today. at 10am they are still at last nights total 5350.




Saturdays Update
Another encouraging dip. THe exponential multiplier dropped under 1.04 to 1.037. To keep it this low we need to stay under 5757 total cases today.




I'd like to briefly derail this NSW Health & Border Force discussion with some boring numbers.

The trajectory continued downwards yesterday. The exponential multiplier dipped lower than Saturdays 1.037 to 1.024 which is very encouraging. Only 137 new cases (still equals 1-2 deaths in 2 weeks) . Clearly the measures are working. Fingers crossed there is no reversal. I hope Aussies being Aussies we dont revert to close enough and start to get out and about for a while. To stay at this low point, we need the total cases to stay below 5827 today.

Personally I'd love to see the multiplier get to 1, stick at it for 3-4 weeks then open everything but the borders back up.




Todays update. This seems too good to be true. Yesterday the exponential multiplier dropped again under 1.02 to 1.018. To maintain this we need to stay under 5905 today.



Just as a comparison, the total cases last night was 5795. When I started tracking this and the multiplier was 1.23, the forecast total cases for today was 40661. The restrictions have really made a massive difference.

It seems incredible that it could have been like that here, but Im sure Italy & Spain felt the same way.

 

[diedpretty]

Is everyone happy with the jobkeeper allowance? I know i’m not impressed as i have been in the workforce for 40 years but am at new employment and casual for 5 months which is not a qualification for it , Go Figure

How come charity workers are eligible - i would have thought most charity workers are volunteers on no pay.

Not at all. Charities are a mixture of paid workers and volunteers.

Yea highly paid administrators and zero paid workers.