Coronavirus Outbreak

[TillLindemann]

Has any country ever vaccinated their way out of trouble?

I get the feeling that the NSW government are not far off giving up on lockdowns and hoping that vaccinations can bring numbers down quickly.

No doubt we'll get there eventually, but I can't see how it'll have much of an impact by the end of the month.

Basically every developed country is giving up on lockdowns and relying on vaccines. The situation is significantly worse with the delta variant.

If restrictions are being implemented it's to protect the unvaccinated.

Health care workers are getting increasingly frustrated because getting vaccinated would solve the problem.

I am pretty certain that NSW has already accepted that we aren't getting cases down to zero again.

I should add the vaccine and open up approach is working well in areas where the vaccination rate is up and not so good when the vaccination rates are down.

While I'm optimistic for the best, vaccinating our way out of delta would be quite an achievement.

A lot of these countries had a combo of natural immunity, massive vaccine rollouts and no delta when they started.

Vaccines are necessary, but not enough on their own. Even the most highly vaccinated countries are still struggling with delta.

It starting to be a Pandemic amongst the unvaccinated.

But the worry is, where it is allowed to let loose in countries that have high (but not high enough) vaccination rates, there is an increased risk of vaccine-resistant strains evolving. At least that seemed to be the fear some were expressing in relation to the UK opening right up again.

 

[mike]

Has any country ever vaccinated their way out of trouble?

I get the feeling that the NSW government are not far off giving up on lockdowns and hoping that vaccinations can bring numbers down quickly.

No doubt we'll get there eventually, but I can't see how it'll have much of an impact by the end of the month.

Basically every developed country is giving up on lockdowns and relying on vaccines. The situation is significantly worse with the delta variant.

If restrictions are being implemented it's to protect the unvaccinated.

Health care workers are getting increasingly frustrated because getting vaccinated would solve the problem.

I am pretty certain that NSW has already accepted that we aren't getting cases down to zero again.

I should add the vaccine and open up approach is working well in areas where the vaccination rate is up and not so good when the vaccination rates are down.

While I'm optimistic for the best, vaccinating our way out of delta would be quite an achievement.

A lot of these countries had a combo of natural immunity, massive vaccine rollouts and no delta when they started.

Vaccines are necessary, but not enough on their own. Even the most highly vaccinated countries are still struggling with delta.

It starting to be a Pandemic amongst the unvaccinated.

But the worry is, where it is allowed to let loose in countries that have high (but not high enough) vaccination rates, there is an increased risk of vaccine-resistant strains evolving. At least that seemed to be the fear some were expressing in relation to the UK opening right up again.

Yep, absolutely and we could be back at square one.

 

[Tim Sheens]

An alternative view

https://www.businessthink.unsw.edu.au/articles/covid-19-lockdowns-cost?mc_cid=b3bf486161&mc_eid=03bdb4a448

I know that I take such things into account and am pretty sure the majority of others also give them similar consideration.

Nearly day on day record calls to Lifeline and other services clearly illustrates the despair many feel and I am certain that some of them are suffering because of being left behind in eligibility for governmental assistance, which whilst appreciated, still not wide enough.

 

[TillLindemann]

An alternative view

https://www.businessthink.unsw.edu.au/articles/covid-19-lockdowns-cost?mc_cid=b3bf486161&mc_eid=03bdb4a448

I know that I take such things into account and am pretty sure the majority of others also give them similar consideration.

Nearly day on day record calls to Lifeline and other services clearly illustrates the despair many feel and I am certain that some of them are suffering because of being left behind in eligibility for governmental assistance, which whilst appreciated, still not wide enough.

And it is these consequences of lockdown that make us all so furious at those who flout the rules and thereby unnecessarily prolong the lockdown. If people hate lockdowns then they should be strictly adhering to it so that it can be over and done with as soon as possible.

 

[earl]

Has any country ever vaccinated their way out of trouble?

I get the feeling that the NSW government are not far off giving up on lockdowns and hoping that vaccinations can bring numbers down quickly.

No doubt we'll get there eventually, but I can't see how it'll have much of an impact by the end of the month.

Basically every developed country is giving up on lockdowns and relying on vaccines. The situation is significantly worse with the delta variant.

If restrictions are being implemented it's to protect the unvaccinated.

Health care workers are getting increasingly frustrated because getting vaccinated would solve the problem.

I am pretty certain that NSW has already accepted that we aren't getting cases down to zero again.

I should add the vaccine and open up approach is working well in areas where the vaccination rate is up and not so good when the vaccination rates are down.

While I'm optimistic for the best, vaccinating our way out of delta would be quite an achievement.

A lot of these countries had a combo of natural immunity, massive vaccine rollouts and no delta when they started.

I agree. It's going to be extremely tough. We are going to have a lot of deaths unless we somehow get a massive amount of people vaccinated. We've held it off for so long but I don't believe it can last.

One extra point I'd make is that we need full vaccination and not partial.

 

[pawsandclaws1]

Just had my 1st pfizzer vax ..
All good

I thought you were an AZ guy?

 

[earl]

Has any country ever vaccinated their way out of trouble?

I get the feeling that the NSW government are not far off giving up on lockdowns and hoping that vaccinations can bring numbers down quickly.

No doubt we'll get there eventually, but I can't see how it'll have much of an impact by the end of the month.

Basically every developed country is giving up on lockdowns and relying on vaccines. The situation is significantly worse with the delta variant.

If restrictions are being implemented it's to protect the unvaccinated.

Health care workers are getting increasingly frustrated because getting vaccinated would solve the problem.

I am pretty certain that NSW has already accepted that we aren't getting cases down to zero again.

I should add the vaccine and open up approach is working well in areas where the vaccination rate is up and not so good when the vaccination rates are down.

While I'm optimistic for the best, vaccinating our way out of delta would be quite an achievement.

A lot of these countries had a combo of natural immunity, massive vaccine rollouts and no delta when they started.

Vaccines are necessary, but not enough on their own. Even the most highly vaccinated countries are still struggling with delta.

If you get high vaccination rates you should be pretty good. The US is struggling but mostly within the states that have a low vaccination rate.

 

[earl]

Has any country ever vaccinated their way out of trouble?

I get the feeling that the NSW government are not far off giving up on lockdowns and hoping that vaccinations can bring numbers down quickly.

No doubt we'll get there eventually, but I can't see how it'll have much of an impact by the end of the month.

Basically every developed country is giving up on lockdowns and relying on vaccines. The situation is significantly worse with the delta variant.

If restrictions are being implemented it's to protect the unvaccinated.

Health care workers are getting increasingly frustrated because getting vaccinated would solve the problem.

I am pretty certain that NSW has already accepted that we aren't getting cases down to zero again.

I should add the vaccine and open up approach is working well in areas where the vaccination rate is up and not so good when the vaccination rates are down.

While I'm optimistic for the best, vaccinating our way out of delta would be quite an achievement.

A lot of these countries had a combo of natural immunity, massive vaccine rollouts and no delta when they started.

Vaccines are necessary, but not enough on their own. Even the most highly vaccinated countries are still struggling with delta.

It starting to be a Pandemic amongst the unvaccinated.

This is what is happening now.

 

[Pascoes_barber]

And everyone looks to the UK, but they are still a little under 60% **fully** vaccinated.

Once it's up around 80%+, 'cases' no longer really matter, it's hospitalisation/death numbers that (remain) important.

 

[earl]

An alternative view

https://www.businessthink.unsw.edu.au/articles/covid-19-lockdowns-cost?mc_cid=b3bf486161&mc_eid=03bdb4a448

It's not really an alternative view. It's just stating that lockdowns have a lot of negative impacts to people. That is true.

The problem is that we have people believing nonsense and that is leading to vaccine hesitancy.

Lockdowns will stop. The point being that we need people vaccinated because otherwise the health care system will not be able to cope and that will lead to a huge number of deaths. It's even worse than just the COVID deaths because people will die from other issues because they can't get medical care.

The problem is that the same people that argue for no lockdowns argue against vaccines. This is clearly stupid.

You can be anti lockdowns and state well if people get vaccinated they won't die or inundate the health care system. You can't be anti lockdowns and anti vaccines because it will be a complete disaster.

If you are anti lockdowns the next step is to state don't treat the unvaccinated. Let them die because they've made that choice. Making that decision is though pretty extreme. You'd be vilified.

It's an alternative view on whether broad lockdowns have proved to be 'successful'. It's an alternative view on whether the NSW Gov. was wrong to delay locking down Sydney from the current outbreak.

It does not provide a view on vaccination.

I don't believe you can talk about lockdowns without mentioning vaccination.

Vaccinations are the no 1 tool to fight COVID. Lockdowns work but they just aren't sustainable.

I should add to this comment. Lockdowns have saved a tonne of lives and clearly they've worked exceptionally well in Australia.

One other point is that some people cherry pick data. The idea of just using excess deaths is in my opinion intellectually dishonest.

One bizarre idea on here was that Sweden had done really well in relation to managing their citizens in relation to COVID and they used that figure as their argument. The problem is Sweden has had a really high mortality rate compared to Australia plus they had a big increase in deaths. It was impossible to get the breakdown of how the excess death figure was calculated. Any person who understands data (I work in this field) knows you need to look at the details.

So that report in my opinion was pretty poor. It just showed lockdowns hurt and they do.

 

[hobbo1]

Just had my 1st pfizzer vax ..
All good

I thought you were an AZ guy?

Nah mate

 

[earl]

And everyone looks to the UK, but they are still a little under 60% **fully** vaccinated.

Once it's up around 80%+, 'cases' no longer really matter, it's hospitalisation/death numbers that (remain) important.

Yep.

Another point is that the deaths are a delayed figure although that sounds terrible. Infections -> elapsed time -> hospitalizations and deaths.

We've been focusing on cases and testing but it will turn to vaccine rates and hospitalizations/deaths.

Infections are though a leading indicator especially amongst the unvaccinated.

 

[voice_of_reason]

And it is these consequences of lockdown that make us all so furious at those who flout the rules and thereby unnecessarily prolong the lockdown. If people hate lockdowns then they should be strictly adhering to it so that it can be over and done with as soon as possible.

Drop the mic, this says it all.

The primary reason we're in this is foolish people doing foolish things. If they'd abide by the rules the numbers would go down. The virus can't spread without human movement.

 

[earl]

But the worry is, where it is allowed to let loose in countries that have high (but not high enough) vaccination rates, there is an increased risk of vaccine-resistant strains evolving. At least that seemed to be the fear some were expressing in relation to the UK opening right up again.

I don't buy the idea that it increases the risk of vaccine-resistant strains evolving. Don't get me wrong it's true but we have a population of 25 odd million. America has 100 million unvaccinated peope. China and India have huge numbers of people.

My point is that I doubt that Australia is the high risk country when it comes to new strains evolving.

I feel the same way about having everyone vaccinated here. Sure it's better but it's not going to stop new variants popping up all over the world.

The delta variant came form India but now it's the dominant strain across the world.

 

[TillLindemann]

But the worry is, where it is allowed to let loose in countries that have high (but not high enough) vaccination rates, there is an increased risk of vaccine-resistant strains evolving. At least that seemed to be the fear some were expressing in relation to the UK opening right up again.

I don't buy the idea that it increases the risk of vaccine-resistant strains evolving. Don't get me wrong it's true but we have a population of 25 odd million. America has 100 million unvaccinated peope. China and India have huge numbers of people.

My point is that I doubt that Australia is the high risk country when it comes to new strains evolving.

I feel the same way about having everyone vaccinated here. Sure it's better but it's not going to stop new variants popping up all over the world.

The delta variant came form India but now it's the dominant strain across the world.

Yeah sorry didn't mean to imply Australia was a likely place for that happening.

 

[earl]

But the worry is, where it is allowed to let loose in countries that have high (but not high enough) vaccination rates, there is an increased risk of vaccine-resistant strains evolving. At least that seemed to be the fear some were expressing in relation to the UK opening right up again.

I don't buy the idea that it increases the risk of vaccine-resistant strains evolving. Don't get me wrong it's true but we have a population of 25 odd million. America has 100 million unvaccinated peope. China and India have huge numbers of people.

My point is that I doubt that Australia is the high risk country when it comes to new strains evolving.

I feel the same way about having everyone vaccinated here. Sure it's better but it's not going to stop new variants popping up all over the world.

The delta variant came form India but now it's the dominant strain across the world.

Yeah sorry didn't mean to imply Australia was a likely place for that happening.

I didn't think you were. It's a common argument but I think it's a bit overdone. If we are talking world wide that is a different story.

 

[mrem]

An alternative view

https://www.businessthink.unsw.edu.au/articles/covid-19-lockdowns-cost?mc_cid=b3bf486161&mc_eid=03bdb4a448

It's not really an alternative view. It's just stating that lockdowns have a lot of negative impacts to people. That is true.

The problem is that we have people believing nonsense and that is leading to vaccine hesitancy.

Lockdowns will stop. The point being that we need people vaccinated because otherwise the health care system will not be able to cope and that will lead to a huge number of deaths. It's even worse than just the COVID deaths because people will die from other issues because they can't get medical care.

The problem is that the same people that argue for no lockdowns argue against vaccines. This is clearly stupid.

You can be anti lockdowns and state well if people get vaccinated they won't die or inundate the health care system. You can't be anti lockdowns and anti vaccines because it will be a complete disaster.

If you are anti lockdowns the next step is to state don't treat the unvaccinated. Let them die because they've made that choice. Making that decision is though pretty extreme. You'd be vilified.

It's an alternative view on whether broad lockdowns have proved to be 'successful'. It's an alternative view on whether the NSW Gov. was wrong to delay locking down Sydney from the current outbreak.

It does not provide a view on vaccination.

I don't believe you can talk about lockdowns without mentioning vaccination.

Vaccinations are the no 1 tool to fight COVID. Lockdowns work but they just aren't sustainable.

I can see that vaccination is an important topic for you. What I posted can be thought about in this way... Holding Australia's vaccination policy constant, what is the most effective way manage outbreaks.

The research in the link doesn't talk about whether lockdowns are sustainable, but rather whether lockdowns cost us more as a society then the benefits that we have received.

Australia wide, we have responded to outbreaks by activating lockdowns. This research suggests lockdowns has cost more lives than it has saved. Thus proposing an alternative view.

 

[earl]

Australia wide, we have responded to outbreaks by activating lockdowns. This research suggests lockdowns has cost more lives than it has saved. Thus proposing an alternative view.

The report is therefore to me nonsense.

Put it this way how would we be going now without those lockdowns. Go look at the mortality rate across the world.

You have to be able to critically evaluate reports and data. Cherry picking stuff to make up a story to suit your argument is dumb.

Science is about discovering reality. That is it.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Check it out for yourself. Just filter on deaths per million people.

Sweden:- 1,438
Australia:- 36
New Zealand:- 5
Britain:- 1,904

To me it's pretty clear cut.

Maybe I'll rephrase this:-

1. Do you believe the countries with lesser lockdowns (note lockdowns have been everywhere it's a matter of scale) have performed better ? Can you justify that opinion when you look at the figures above ?
2. Do you believe some random report where you do not know the bias of the people involved or how well researched that report is over the raw data which appears pretty conclusive ?

So assuming the vaccination rate remains the same lockdowns have to be used. The thing is and this is the reason I mention vaccines the picture changes completely dependent on how many people are vaccinated.

 

[Demps]

Today the NSW Government announced new restrictions for Hunter / Newcastle from 5pm today.

There will be a 1 week snap lockdown for Newcastle, Lake Macquarie, Maitland, Port Stephens, Cessnock, Dungog, Singleton and Muswellbrook, ending on 12 August 2021.

From 5pm today, the Newcastle area will join Greater Sydney residents in only leaving home for limited reasons. Residents must limit their exercise and shopping to within their Local Government Area (LGA) or, if outside their LGA, within 10km from home, unless the item is not available locally.
You must carry a face mask with you at all times when you leave your home.

🙂

 

[mike]

Today the NSW Government announced new restrictions for Hunter / Newcastle from 5pm today.

There will be a 1 week snap lockdown for Newcastle, Lake Macquarie, Maitland, Port Stephens, Cessnock, Dungog, Singleton and Muswellbrook, ending on 12 August 2021.

From 5pm today, the Newcastle area will join Greater Sydney residents in only leaving home for limited reasons. Residents must limit their exercise and shopping to within their Local Government Area (LGA) or, if outside their LGA, within 10km from home, unless the item is not available locally.
You must carry a face mask with you at all times when you leave your home.

🙂

Welcome to the club, sorry.