Coronavirus Outbreak

[TrueTiger]

Josh Dugan busted defying lockdown orders again, this time being caught twice trying to drive to Lithgow.

Has always been a serial offender....no matter what the breech is,defying lockdown,drinking on rooftops,going to restaurants and breaking protocol....
no wonder some kids think they can do what they like,especially as their NRL heros are in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons...

 

[trentrunciman]

Damn , been on hold to get phizer here in Canberra for an hour now for 30-39 age group! Sigh

If they had sputnik etc I’d get that too

You just want the Ice cream the Russian were giving out.

Da ! Da!

My mate got the sputnik in ST Petersburg

Is the Sputnik mRNA?

not sure buddy but he sent me thefoto of him getting it

 

[TillLindemann]

Josh Dugan busted defying lockdown orders again, this time being caught twice trying to drive to Lithgow.

Was he on his way to check himself into Lithgow gaol?

 

[earl]

The protests are happening right now. Typically no one wearing a mask or following any sort of protocols.

People just don't care. I wonder how many of theses people are vaccinated ?

The vaccine's are against what they are protesting.

I shouldn't laugh but it's hard not too. I just read the Herald and they said they called off the protests in the city and moved them to Parramatta but no one turned up.

 

[earl]

Luckily I live with winners in Queensland

I live in a hot spot LGA and I support the Tigers.

 

[swag_tiger]

I find it annoying that some people say that the disease doesn't have the signs of a deadly one. They fail to realise that lockdown is one of the reasons.

 

[swag_tiger]

Now people are saying what's happening here is how Afghanistan got to where it is now.

 

[innsaneink]


 

[swag_tiger]


Read the comments under the post.

 

[earl]

I find it annoying that some people say that the disease doesn't have the signs of a deadly one. They fail to realise that lockdown is one of the reasons.

I did some rough numbers on this.

UK/USA have had about 2000 deaths per million people. Data from here:- https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Australia has a population of about 25 million.
Say we get to 80% vaccinated and everyone who is vaccinated is safe. That leaves 20% of the population as the percentage exposed to COVID.
In that scenario we'd get 10,000 deaths.

The flaws in those numbers are as follows:-

1. The 2000 deaths per million population is over the course of the pandemic and not 1 year.
2. That scenario assumes no deaths for vaccinated people.
3. Getting to 80% may be hard.

More people would die of heart disease and dementia compared to COVID.

Lower vaccination rates would chance the picture completely. If we were completely unvaccinated you are looking at 50 000 deaths which would be our biggest killer by far.

Happy for anyone to come up with rougher figures or point our anything I missed.

The way I view it though is if we can somehow get people vaccinated this isn't a big issue. The unvaccinated will also develop COVID and then develop immunity so deaths should decrease over time.

If people don't get vaccinated this would be a catastrophe. People are getting vaccinated though. From yesterdays figures I get a figure of 56% first dose protected in NSW. If we get to 80% by end of this lockdown and people follow through I think we can basically beat this.

https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/australias-covid-19-vaccine-rollout

 

[mike]

I find it annoying that some people say that the disease doesn't have the signs of a deadly one. They fail to realise that lockdown is one of the reasons.

I did some rough numbers on this.

UK/USA have had about 2000 deaths per million people. Data from here:- https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Australia has a population of about 25 million.
Say we get to 80% vaccinated and everyone who is vaccinated is safe. That leaves 20% of the population as the percentage exposed to COVID.
In that scenario we'd get 10,000 deaths.

The flaws in those numbers are as follows:-

**1. The 2000 deaths per million population is over the course of the pandemic and not 1 year.**
2. That scenario assumes no deaths for vaccinated people.
3. Getting to 80% may be hard.

More people would die of heart disease and dementia compared to COVID.

Lower vaccination rates would chance the picture completely. If we were completely unvaccinated you are looking at 50 000 deaths which would be our biggest killer by far.

Happy for anyone to come up with rougher figures or point our anything I missed.

The way I view it though is if we can somehow get people vaccinated this isn't a big issue. The unvaccinated will also develop COVID and then develop immunity so deaths should decrease over time.

If people don't get vaccinated this would be a catastrophe. People are getting vaccinated though. From yesterdays figures I get a figure of 56% first dose protected in NSW. If we get to 80% by end of this lockdown and people follow through I think we can basically beat this.

https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/australias-covid-19-vaccine-rollout

For every 528 people in the US a person has died of Covid-19. 1 in 528. Think about that for a minute. That probable equates to 1 person in every street or two has died of Covid-19 in the US.

 

[earl]

Now people are saying what's happening here is how Afghanistan got to where it is now.

I'm just trying to understand this. Is the belief that NSW's lockdown is the same situation as what has occurred in Afghanistan. So a country that has been a war zone for 100's of years and had a tribal fundamentalist Islamic presence is the same as being in a lockdown ?

Is wearing a mandated mask outdoors the same as having to cover your face as a woman in Afghanistan ?

Personally I think we are extremely lucky living in Australia. I also think if people just followed the health advice which has been basically perfect we wouldn't even have this problem which to me is not quite like the situation in Afghanistan.

 

[earl]

I find it annoying that some people say that the disease doesn't have the signs of a deadly one. They fail to realise that lockdown is one of the reasons.

I did some rough numbers on this.

UK/USA have had about 2000 deaths per million people. Data from here:- https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Australia has a population of about 25 million.
Say we get to 80% vaccinated and everyone who is vaccinated is safe. That leaves 20% of the population as the percentage exposed to COVID.
In that scenario we'd get 10,000 deaths.

The flaws in those numbers are as follows:-

**1. The 2000 deaths per million population is over the course of the pandemic and not 1 year.**
2. That scenario assumes no deaths for vaccinated people.
3. Getting to 80% may be hard.

More people would die of heart disease and dementia compared to COVID.

Lower vaccination rates would chance the picture completely. If we were completely unvaccinated you are looking at 50 000 deaths which would be our biggest killer by far.

Happy for anyone to come up with rougher figures or point our anything I missed.

The way I view it though is if we can somehow get people vaccinated this isn't a big issue. The unvaccinated will also develop COVID and then develop immunity so deaths should decrease over time.

If people don't get vaccinated this would be a catastrophe. People are getting vaccinated though. From yesterdays figures I get a figure of 56% first dose protected in NSW. If we get to 80% by end of this lockdown and people follow through I think we can basically beat this.

https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/australias-covid-19-vaccine-rollout

For every 528 people in the US a person has died of Covid-19. 1 in 528. Think about that for a minute. That probable equates to 1 person in every street or two has died of Covid-19 in the US.

It's about 2 percent of the population. It's freaken horrendous.

I get a couple of broad takings out of this:-

1. Lockdowns/border closures in Australia have saved so many lives.
2. The Delta strain coming late in the pandemic has been exceptionally lucky for us. It's bad it's here but if the virus was this contagious at the start I think we'd be similar to the UK or the US.
3. Vaccines are going to save so many lives.

 

[mike]

I find it annoying that some people say that the disease doesn't have the signs of a deadly one. They fail to realise that lockdown is one of the reasons.

I did some rough numbers on this.

UK/USA have had about 2000 deaths per million people. Data from here:- https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Australia has a population of about 25 million.
Say we get to 80% vaccinated and everyone who is vaccinated is safe. That leaves 20% of the population as the percentage exposed to COVID.
In that scenario we'd get 10,000 deaths.

The flaws in those numbers are as follows:-

**1. The 2000 deaths per million population is over the course of the pandemic and not 1 year.**
2. That scenario assumes no deaths for vaccinated people.
3. Getting to 80% may be hard.

More people would die of heart disease and dementia compared to COVID.

Lower vaccination rates would chance the picture completely. If we were completely unvaccinated you are looking at 50 000 deaths which would be our biggest killer by far.

Happy for anyone to come up with rougher figures or point our anything I missed.

The way I view it though is if we can somehow get people vaccinated this isn't a big issue. The unvaccinated will also develop COVID and then develop immunity so deaths should decrease over time.

If people don't get vaccinated this would be a catastrophe. People are getting vaccinated though. From yesterdays figures I get a figure of 56% first dose protected in NSW. If we get to 80% by end of this lockdown and people follow through I think we can basically beat this.

https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/australias-covid-19-vaccine-rollout

For every 528 people in the US a person has died of Covid-19. 1 in 528. Think about that for a minute. That probable equates to 1 person in every street or two has died of Covid-19 in the US.

It's about 2 percent of the population. It's freaken horrendous.

I get a couple of broad takings out of this:-

1. Lockdowns/border closures in Australia have saved so many lives.
2. The Delta strain coming late in the pandemic has been exceptionally lucky for us. It's bad it's here but if the virus was this contagious at the start I think we'd be similar to the UK or the US.
3. Vaccines are going to save so many lives.

I'm trying to avoid large numbers and percentages as most can't get their head around it, as it seems incomprehensible and meaningless to some. That and wont happen to me syndrome. Showing the numbers on a more personal and neighbourhood level and the light bulb goes on, at least for some.

 

[earl]

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/federal-government-backs-nsw-in-war-of-words-over-lockdown-targets-20210820-p58kgc.html

Federal government sources have also told The Sun-Herald the Doherty Institute has provided the government with further advice – which will be presented to national cabinet this week – that says reopening with hundreds of daily cases at 70 per cent vaccination would not dramatically change its epidemiological modelling.

This is interesting. The Doherty report has 30 cases as the seeding event if an outbreak occurs. Then then extrapolate out how many deaths etc from that seeding event.

I have thought that figure was hilarious because we had like 800 cases yesterday.

This isn't released yet but they are stating it doesn't matter.

I look at my figures above and I also think it doesn't matter but my figures are extremely rough.

It's going to be extremely interesting over the next couple of months. I can see the lockdown ending and COVID not really being a big issue if we can somehow get a high vaccination rate.

I should add that people are going to die. It's not a joke or anything like that. We just can't stop people dying. Nearly 20k people die each year from heart disease. If we stopped eating meat that figure would drop massively. I'm not stating to stop eating meat. I'm stating that we have to live with a certain level of deaths. Every death though is someone's brother, sister, mum, dad, son, daughter etc.

 

[earl]

I find it annoying that some people say that the disease doesn't have the signs of a deadly one. They fail to realise that lockdown is one of the reasons.

I did some rough numbers on this.

UK/USA have had about 2000 deaths per million people. Data from here:- https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Australia has a population of about 25 million.
Say we get to 80% vaccinated and everyone who is vaccinated is safe. That leaves 20% of the population as the percentage exposed to COVID.
In that scenario we'd get 10,000 deaths.

The flaws in those numbers are as follows:-

**1. The 2000 deaths per million population is over the course of the pandemic and not 1 year.**
2. That scenario assumes no deaths for vaccinated people.
3. Getting to 80% may be hard.

More people would die of heart disease and dementia compared to COVID.

Lower vaccination rates would chance the picture completely. If we were completely unvaccinated you are looking at 50 000 deaths which would be our biggest killer by far.

Happy for anyone to come up with rougher figures or point our anything I missed.

The way I view it though is if we can somehow get people vaccinated this isn't a big issue. The unvaccinated will also develop COVID and then develop immunity so deaths should decrease over time.

If people don't get vaccinated this would be a catastrophe. People are getting vaccinated though. From yesterdays figures I get a figure of 56% first dose protected in NSW. If we get to 80% by end of this lockdown and people follow through I think we can basically beat this.

https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/australias-covid-19-vaccine-rollout

For every 528 people in the US a person has died of Covid-19. 1 in 528. Think about that for a minute. That probable equates to 1 person in every street or two has died of Covid-19 in the US.

It's about 2 percent of the population. It's freaken horrendous.

I get a couple of broad takings out of this:-

1. Lockdowns/border closures in Australia have saved so many lives.
2. The Delta strain coming late in the pandemic has been exceptionally lucky for us. It's bad it's here but if the virus was this contagious at the start I think we'd be similar to the UK or the US.
3. Vaccines are going to save so many lives.

I'm trying to avoid large numbers and percentages as most can't get their head around it, as it seems incomprehensible and meaningless to some. That and wont happen to me syndrome. Showing the numbers on a more personal and neighbourhood level and the light bulb goes on, at least for some.

I checked your figures and I think you've understated the number a little. Not much and it misses the point. The point is this is how do you get people to realize this is a disaster unlike anything we've ever seen in terms of loss of human life.

I'm amazed people still believe this is some sort of fraud. I see crazy anti-vaxxers/conspiracy theorists in America stating something is killing people but they don't know what it is that is killing people. Can you imagine it.

 

[happy_tiger]

I was shocked yesterday to see 4 players from the WT's v Sharks post game fist bumping fans ...one was the young bloke from the Sharks who get the double .....Jo O was our naughty boy

Don't be surprised if this makes news .....a Sharks fan beside me has photos and turned to me and asked "did I see that" he was disgusted .....

 

[earl]

I just heard Scotty Morrison talking on Insiders.

My take on this is exactly what they are going to do at this point.

1. Get vaccination rates up.
2. Stop lockdowns.
3. There may be some intermediate step which entails more freedom for those vaccinated.
4. Stop focusing on case numbers and start managing this as per other illnesses which means we focus on hospitalizations.

If everyone can just do the right thing for a little bit longer we will be good to go.

I think that this is all the correct approach and it's all backed up by massive amounts of high quality data. You just got to hope this all plays out as per the science.

This isn't a political issue either. There is no way Labour will do anything differently. They will follow the health advice and if it all blows up they can just state they've followed the health advice.

 

[jadtiger]

I find it annoying that some people say that the disease doesn't have the signs of a deadly one. They fail to realise that lockdown is one of the reasons.

I did some rough numbers on this.

UK/USA have had about 2000 deaths per million people. Data from here:- https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Australia has a population of about 25 million.
Say we get to 80% vaccinated and everyone who is vaccinated is safe. That leaves 20% of the population as the percentage exposed to COVID.
In that scenario we'd get 10,000 deaths.

The flaws in those numbers are as follows:-

**1. The 2000 deaths per million population is over the course of the pandemic and not 1 year.**
2. That scenario assumes no deaths for vaccinated people.
3. Getting to 80% may be hard.

More people would die of heart disease and dementia compared to COVID.

Lower vaccination rates would chance the picture completely. If we were completely unvaccinated you are looking at 50 000 deaths which would be our biggest killer by far.

Happy for anyone to come up with rougher figures or point our anything I missed.

The way I view it though is if we can somehow get people vaccinated this isn't a big issue. The unvaccinated will also develop COVID and then develop immunity so deaths should decrease over time.

If people don't get vaccinated this would be a catastrophe. People are getting vaccinated though. From yesterdays figures I get a figure of 56% first dose protected in NSW. If we get to 80% by end of this lockdown and people follow through I think we can basically beat this.

https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/australias-covid-19-vaccine-rollout

For every 528 people in the US a person has died of Covid-19. 1 in 528. Think about that for a minute. That probable equates to 1 person in every street or two has died of Covid-19 in the US.

It's about 2 percent of the population. It's freaken horrendous.

I get a couple of broad takings out of this:-

1. Lockdowns/border closures in Australia have saved so many lives.
2. The Delta strain coming late in the pandemic has been exceptionally lucky for us. It's bad it's here but if the virus was this contagious at the start I think we'd be similar to the UK or the US.
3. Vaccines are going to save so many lives.

It is well below 2% of the people who have died from covid it is less than 0.3%.It is still far too many and high vaccine use should reduce the figure even more.The nutters on the right wing of politics(mainly in the USA) are the ones leading the antivax brigade and making the situation worse.We should all be thankful we dont live in the USA as they still have a main political party refusing to give full support to either vaccinations or mask wearing.At least here we have bipartisan support on doing so even if a few from the right are actively in denial.

 

[swag_tiger]

Now the QR code is considered discrimination to the people who are not Vaccinated.