Its funny, I keep hearing this narrative from some fans, Englsh supporters and parts of the media that the English have been the better team this Ashes series and are hard done by to lose it...Is this reality though?
1st Test = England introduces Bazball to Australia and enjoys good success in their first innings piling on nearly 400 runs through Root, Bairstow and Crawley at a strike rate of 79. They even declared this innings and tried to catch Australia off gaurd. From then on though, Australia was reasonably comfortable chasing them down, with Kawaja, Carey and Head slowly chasing the score down and only falling 7 runs short, then bowling England out for 272, leaving a chase total of 281 for victory. Kawaja was again the hero along with his captain and we got the lollies by 2 wickets.
In the first innings, Bazball was only slightly more effective. In the second innings traditional cricket won.
Score = England 1 innings victory, Australia 1 innings victory.
2nd Test = Australia pile on the runs with our top order mostly all contributing to amass 416, then the bowlers taking them out for 325. Australias strike rate bettered the English. i.e. traditional beat bazball. In the second innings, we did struggle to 279 thanks to Kawaja, but with the first innings lead, we set them 370 to win. They came after us thanks through a devastating Stokes innings but in the end fell 43 runs short with their stirke rate again below Australias first innings performance. We won both innings in this game.
Score = England 1 innings victory, Australia 3 innings victories.
3rd Test = Australia struggled to a first innings score of 263, striking at only 50%. Bazball came after this small total and failed, despite striking at 83%, to give Australia a first innings lead of 26. The English bowlers were excellent in the second innings, restricting Australia to 224 for an overall lead of 250, which England chased down in their usual manner. It should be noted here that they chased at 83% again and lost 7 wickets. The aggression worked, but it did look dicey for a little while. Risky chase from them.
Score = England 2 innings victories, Australia 4 innings victories.
4th Test = This is the game where we got a touchup. Our first innings score pof 317 was compiled at our usual speed, but proved way short with the English smashing 592, with 6 men passing 50 and Crawley belting 189 at a strike rate of 104. In the second innings though, Australia had to chase 275 and then set a lead to try and defend. This was highly unlikely to happen, however Labuschagne proved we can bat well in a second innings and got us to within 61 runs with 5 wickets in hand. I believe England would almost certainly have won this game had they not lost 5 sessions to rain. However, the rain was not a surprise and their play did not prevent a draw. They batted far too long in their first innings. They didnt need a big lead, they required the time to bowl us out and then quickly chase our lead, should we have secured one. They should have declared when Stokes got out with the score at 437, a lead of 120. Had they done this, they would have had an extra 24 overs to get Australia out in that second innigs. In the end, we faced 71 overs in that second innings and lost just the 5 wickets. I consider that a victory of bat over ball as we batted through two very tough periods. I wont count that as an innings victory as the English didnt bat, but it was impressive all the same.
Score = England 3 innings victories, Australia 4 innings victories + a very solid innings to attain a draw.
I find the narrative that the English have been unlucky as they outplayed the Aussies is not correct. The stats and innings results clearly shows that in totality, Australia outplayed England in 4 of the 7 innings completed thus far and steadfastly defended the 8th innings to attain the draw. England's Bazball is fun to watch, it gets the crowd going, but as Steve Smith said prior to the series, it may not work against a world class attack like Australia's. Australia faced more overs than England in 6 of the 7 completed innings....usually to the tune of 20+ more overs per innings. This is Test cricket, it is about wearing down your opponent as much as outscoring them, and far more than belting 6's. So far, Australias approach to this series has proven more effective. England has outscored Australia 4 times out of 7, but the 3 times we outscored them, was enough to win 2 Tests to their 1. With the obvious exception of the fourth Test first innings, Australia has been right on their hammer for the other three innings that they were outscored in. This is all despite the fact that Australias top 6 batsmen have not set the world on fire this series and our bowlers have been flogged around the park on occasion, giving up 300+ runs 4 times. It should also be remembered, that England won all 4 tosses and enjoyed the more favourable conditions for batting and bowling in every test.
All in all, Australia have played the superior Test cricket in this series and I think now that England cant win this series, you may see bazball implode in the 5th test. Our bowlers have received a surprise extra 2 days rest to work on their plans and recouperate and our bastmen have had the pressure removed.
I'd have us slight favourites to win the 5th test and clinch the first Australian series win in England in 22 years.
Bring it on.