Lack of signings

[Ponyo]

Great synopsis @jirskyr thank you for taking the time to put that together & settle it.

 

[happy_tiger]

Got an essay here

I want to start by saying this thread prompted me to have a think about what’s going on with Tigers fans pre-season 2020. We’ve finished 9th a million times and not played finals most years, but there appears to me to be an unprecedented doom and gloom on here.

Personally, how one might have had optimism in the first year of, say, the Potter or Jason Taylor reigns, but have lost it now, I don’t know. I’m pretty convinced that Madge is a far better calibre of coach than those two and, dare I say it, the best credentialed coach we’ve ever had besides Tim Sheens.

Similarly, @avocadoontoast posted, re hoisting the white flag
>“I’d be ok hoisting it now to be honest. I’ve just about had enough.

Why this year? Tigers have struggled for as long as I’ve been alive, but why 2020 is it now too much?

Clearly the team needs to be better and that either comes from improving the current players, or improving the roster. I have a strong impression that this whole Latrell business has really gotten to some people, simply because there was this opportunity of rapidly and handsomely improving the roster in one single shot, and now it appears to have been lost, and it’s crushed a few people.

These people otherwise have no confidence in improving the current players, because that’s been a long-term strategy that hasn’t worked out, and Madge simply managed to repeat the previous middle-ground 9th, same as always. I get that.

So I was thinking about the OP for a while, and the question I ask is: how many clubs sign “elite” players at all? Assuming there’s some significant amount of elite player trade and the Tigers are one of the few teams unable to get involved.

Let’s define “elite” as Origin representative quality or better. Then let’s look at the Origin sides in Game 1 2019:

Kalyn Ponga – signed by Newy the year he debuted Origin
Corey Oates – still at original club
Michael Morgan – still at original club
Will Chambers – still at original club
Dane Gagai – signed by Newy 3 years before playing Origin, signed by Souths 3 years after playing Origin
Cameron Munster – still at original club
Daly Cherry-Evans (c) – still at original club
Jai Arrow – signed by Titans the year he debuted Origin
Ben Hunt – signed by Dragons the year after his Origin debut (debuted with original club Broncos)
Josh Papalii – still at original club
Felise Kaufusi – still at original club
Matt Gillett – still at original club
Josh McGuire – signed by Cows 4 years after Origin debut (debuted with original club Broncos)
Moses Mbye – signed by Tigers year before Origin debut
Joe Ofahengaue – still at original club
Dylan Napa – signed by Dogs 2 years after Origin debut (debuted with original club Easts)
David Fifita – still at original club

James Tedesco – signed by Easts 2 years after playing Origin (debuted with original club Tigers)
Nick Cotric – still at original club
Latrell Mitchell – still at original club
Josh Morris – signed by Bulldogs same year as Origin debut
Josh Addo-Carr – signed by Storm 1 year before Origin debut
Cody Walker – still at original club
Nathan Cleary – still at original club
David Klemmer – signed w Newy 4 years after Origin debut
Damien Cook – signed by Dogs 4 years before Origin debut, signed by Souths 2 years before debut
Paul Vaughan – signed by Dragons 1 year before Origin debut
Boyd Cordner (c) – still at original club
Tyson Frizell – signed with Dragons 3 years before Origin debut
Jake Trbojevic – still at original club
Jack Wighton – still at original club
Payne Haas – still at original club
Cameron Murray – still at original club
Angus Crichton – signed with Easts year after Origin debut

What is striking in this example is that 19/34 (56%) players are still with their debut club. A further 9 (26%) players signed with their second NRL club *before* their Origin debut, i.e. were not rep-level players at the time they signed.

That leaves just 6/34 (18%) players who moved to a second club after becoming Origin players.

You look at those in further detail, you have:
Hunt – headhunted for $1M by Dragons, you can fairly say hasn’t worked out
McGuire – signed by Cows after being released by Broncos
Napa – signed by Dogs after being released by Roosters
Tedesco – headhunted for $1M by Roosters
Klemmer – released by Dogs for personal reasons, signed for $850K
Crichton – headhunted by Roosters for close to $1M

So 50% of the players who joined a second club after their Origin debut were released by their incumbent, and the other 50% are all $1M headhunting efforts, mostly by the Roosters.

This data indicates that it’s much more likely to have an Origin player developed from within your club, than sign such a player from another club. I.e. the player either debuted for your side or joined your side before being selected for Origin.

You can argue that some players were signed on the cusp of, or with expectation of, playing Origin, which is fine, but then Moses Mbye and probably Ryan Matterson fit that description, in which case the Tigers DO sign elite-level players.

The other striking feature of these Origin players is that I believe only 3 have had more than 2 clubs – Gagai, Josh Morris and Cook, and Cook was is a technicality because he only played 2 games on debut for the Dragons. Josh Morris has only just completed 1 year with Sharks and only played 2 seasons with Dragons before leaving. Gagai is really the only example in this list of a player headhunted by a 3rd club after being an Origin rep.

Therefore even if you try to sign an Origin-calibre player, the data suggests they are unlikely to move clubs more than once.

Fundamentally, the data suggests that there isn’t a particularly large trade in elite players, and actually most rep-level players are developed from within, or tactically headhunted before they reach Origin level. This would then say that Tigers primary focus should not be signing elite players, but rather developing our own elite players, or astutely buying players who may be elite propositions within a few seasons.

To try and actually sign an existing and established elite player, you typically need $1M or need to be on the lucky end of a secured release, which is the Latrell situation. The secured release is risky, because it says that the incumbent club WANTS to be rid of the player.

And finally, to be headhunting these elite players, the only real clubs to do it successfully in the current crop of rep players are Easts, Souths and, funnily enough, Newcastle.

So is it really the situation that Tigers are consistently unable to secure elite talent, or is it more accurate to say that elite talent infrequently moves around, and when it does, there are a shortlist of clubs that have the success / pulling power to jag these elite players. And then when elite players do move, it will cost you $1M.

Problem is our playing roster at this stage will be weaker than 2019 ...that is what many's problem is

If Madge can't recruit players leading in 2021 lots of questions need to be asked and lots of changes across the board need to be made

 

[Roar_Power]

The perceived issues with recruiting elite football players to the Tigers does seem more prevalent now than ever before with the amount of cash in the bank and snubs from LM etc. I imagine this was probably the reason why the Tigers went so hard for Bennett before his move to Souths - players want to play for him. Still believe Madge is a very astute coach and doesn't make decisions on a whim which is important along with being very culture oriented.

 

[TJ21]

The perceived issues with recruiting elite football players to the Tigers does seem more prevalent now than ever before with the amount of cash in the bank and snubs from LM etc. I imagine this was probably the reason why the Tigers went so hard for Bennett before his move to Souths - players want to play for him. Still believe Madge is a very astute coach and doesn't make decisions on a whim which is important along with being very culture oriented.

More prevalent now? Based on the fact we haven't signed Latrell?

 

[Roar_Power]

The perceived issues with recruiting elite football players to the Tigers does seem more prevalent now than ever before with the amount of cash in the bank and snubs from LM etc. I imagine this was probably the reason why the Tigers went so hard for Bennett before his move to Souths - players want to play for him. Still believe Madge is a very astute coach and doesn't make decisions on a whim which is important along with being very culture oriented.

More prevalent now? Based on the fact we haven't signed Latrell?

LM 'etc'. Do you know what etc means? It means more than one. Look it up if required.

I personally believe it is more prevalent now given the money we have to spend and difficulty in securing the big names we have been chasing without success.

 

[TJ21]

The perceived issues with recruiting elite football players to the Tigers does seem more prevalent now than ever before with the amount of cash in the bank and snubs from LM etc. I imagine this was probably the reason why the Tigers went so hard for Bennett before his move to Souths - players want to play for him. Still believe Madge is a very astute coach and doesn't make decisions on a whim which is important along with being very culture oriented.

More prevalent now? Based on the fact we haven't signed Latrell?

LM 'etc'. Do you know what etc means? It means more than one. Look it up if required.

I personally believe it is more prevalent now given the money we have to spend and difficulty in securing the big names we have been chasing without success.

Good one mate! Maturity of an infant!

Who are the big names we missed out on that we chased besides Latrell? Kurt Capewell and Zane Tetavano? Haha

 

[Roar_Power]

The perceived issues with recruiting elite football players to the Tigers does seem more prevalent now than ever before with the amount of cash in the bank and snubs from LM etc. I imagine this was probably the reason why the Tigers went so hard for Bennett before his move to Souths - players want to play for him. Still believe Madge is a very astute coach and doesn't make decisions on a whim which is important along with being very culture oriented.

More prevalent now? Based on the fact we haven't signed Latrell?

LM 'etc'. Do you know what etc means? It means more than one. Look it up if required.

I personally believe it is more prevalent now given the money we have to spend and difficulty in securing the big names we have been chasing without success.

Good one mate! Maturity of an infant!

Who are the big names we missed out on that we chased besides Latrell? Kurt Capewell and Zane Tetavano? Haha

One word matey, blocked. Don't have time for you.

 

[TJ21]

The perceived issues with recruiting elite football players to the Tigers does seem more prevalent now than ever before with the amount of cash in the bank and snubs from LM etc. I imagine this was probably the reason why the Tigers went so hard for Bennett before his move to Souths - players want to play for him. Still believe Madge is a very astute coach and doesn't make decisions on a whim which is important along with being very culture oriented.

More prevalent now? Based on the fact we haven't signed Latrell?

LM 'etc'. Do you know what etc means? It means more than one. Look it up if required.

I personally believe it is more prevalent now given the money we have to spend and difficulty in securing the big names we have been chasing without success.

Good one mate! Maturity of an infant!

Who are the big names we missed out on that we chased besides Latrell? Kurt Capewell and Zane Tetavano? Haha

One word matey, blocked. Don't have time for you.

My pleasure mate. Have a good day RP

 

[twentyforty]

Prince and Hodgson in their prime and the young versions of Farah and Benji......... that’s why we won in 05.
None of those players or any of equal ability are in our 2020 side

The real difference was Tim Sheens. He believed in the talented junior gene pool. Grow your own legends. And not for the harvesting of other clubs. Players want to win and they want to remain loyal to a club.

 

[Telltails]

Very few elite players individually are good enough to make a significant difference to a team - hence why the tag comes with a level of expectation that few can live up to. Makes sense that they gravitate to clubs that have players with equally good players and avoid clubs like ours - with currently none.
Maguire has to develop a team with balance - speed, some size, youth and experience, a decent spine, a goal kicker and some players with ticker. If coached well he will develop players into better players.
Not an easy task for any coach and not many would take it on.

 

[twentyforty]

Tim also encouraged players to see the real value and true meaning of the word TEAM.

 

[TheDaBoss]

Sheenius

 

[earl]

The real issue is that this is very long term...

In our 25 years we have never been able to sign a current Kangaroo or NSW player.

Our biggest signing NRL wise has been Adam Blair. Think about that...25 years = Adam Blair.

Even at their lowest points the Dogs, Manly, Parra, Panthers, Saints...even the Titans...have all been able to sign current rep players.

Yet we never have.

It is an issue. Those denying it are half the problem, by doing so it just adds to the lack of accountability.

Melbourne don't do it much if at all either. Sure it's a problem for us but it doesn't impact Melbourne. The problem is developing a quality team.

 

[jirskyr]

Problem is our playing roster at this stage will be weaker than 2019 …that is what many’s problem is

Personally I'd say "weaker" is subjective. If some of the players that improved in 2020, e.g. Garner, improve again, it might end up being a stronger roster. Consider if Mbye plays a full season uninjured and Packer gets his form back.

Jamie Soward on nrl.com, for example, couldn't find a place for Luciano in our Top 17, which surprised me. But the team he rolled out for the Tigers was not a silly team, so it does show some depth in the backrow, if you give it some thought. I rate Luciano, I think he's a real weapon out wide, something we've lacked.

The other consideration, of course, is our most recent top-level recruit just backstabbed us to leave. So you can legitimately say, to those who bemoan the lack of quality signings, that we arguably made the best signing purchase of any club for 2019, a rep-quality booming forward in Matterson. This was rapidly recognised by both his form and his selection for the Origin camp. And then it turned out horribly and we have a rep-sized space in our roster, that we haven't been able to scramble to fill in the offseason.

I don't think you can solely blame Tigers for Matto wanting out, or suggest there's some toxic club-wide issue, which is where the OP was leading. To date this is an isolated incident from a player who has plenty of form of wanting out of clubs. And it also speaks to the bigger emerging issue overall, of NRL players stropping their way out of contracts because of some personal issue they have. It's more evidence of an increasing horse trade in disgruntled players every year, and the attempts of the NRL to crack down on player managers who might be stirring up these messes.

So is it weaker? In my opinion, yes on paper it is a little weaker. Luciano does not replace Matto, though he does cover about 75%. Marsters did SFA in 2019, so it's definitely weaker on Marsters 2018 but I'm indifferent to his 2019 form. Talau is potentially a much better player, perhaps 2021 rather than 2020.

But if Madge gets the TEAM performing more consistently, players continuing to improve, then I'd say the "weakness" of the 2020 roster is marginal and can easily be offset by other players.

We were one win away from the finals, just needed 1 more match to fall. The roster is definitely capable and I don't buy the argument that subtracting one or two non-core players suddenly makes the team incapable of doing better than 8th. People are also quick to note that MCK single-handedly won 2 games, which is fine, because he's still on the books. You can't take wins away from the club when considering their form, regardless of the manner of the win.

 

[Cultured_Bogan]

Adding to that @jirskyr are we worse off without Matulino, or carrying a busted Matulino absorbing cap space?

I can understand the perception that we are in a weaker position. In context, we have a lot of cash available and still 3 spots left to fill. Having said that we have until the 1st of March to fill two of those spots of which anything or anyone can be signed in that time. That being said, I can also understand that the whole LM circus has left some, if not many, feeling deflated in that we're not an attractive proposition for elite players even when we have significantly better money to offer than other clubs.

The problem is that Wests fans are tired of waiting and that is very understandable, so lack of patience shadows a lot of these posts about our roster being perceived as weaker.

Should Packer regain form, the players that did show improvement last year continue on their trajectories and the new signings we have made do their part the argument will be made that improvement has been made. A couple of distinct issues with a lack of a decent hooker and fullback are obvious but with three spots left to fill they could well be addressed.

Contrary to custom on this forum, patience has to be practised until at least 29 players are on the roster. While not looking positive, LM is still yet to be determined and there could be other machinations taking place to get players here (JAC for example.)

 

[tiga4eva]

My feeling of despair is that the cycle never seems to end for us. We lost Tedesco Moses and Woods yet still found ourselves in a Cap mess and copped a Cap fine. Players excel when they leave here and we haven't attracted any elite players

 

[TrueTiger]

In my opinion there is far to much condemnation of our recruiting staff and coach so far this off season..we must consider all the calamity that we have endured in the last few years to take into perspective where we are now,all the shouting about not signing top marquee players is a bit over the top when we have to sort the fundamental mistakes others have made,Reynolds,Matalino,Matto for eg,big money contracts,most of the time spent on the sidelines or left for greener pastures,the RF affair etc..
Maybe if we stop and think for a minute that the staff are constantly trying to do the right thing by the rules and what money they have but not to make the same mistake as others have previously.No mean feat since there was a huge mess to cleanup.
Im not worrying to much atm because Iam relying on the core people within the club to finally make the right decisions in regards to players and funds available.

 

[JD Tiger]

Its easier to accept the lows as you know its part of the parcel with the highs. It's been a long time since weve had the highs, with a few potential highs being missed out on several times which just rubs it in. The ninth place finishes, the must win games which we typically lose, the loss of our talented juniors, all had us thinking we were close but then along came another low.

Fwiw, Madge's recruitment in juniors and the CoE being built is hedging us towards another possible high, and I think he can get us there. Fingers crossed...

 

[Goanna57]

In my opinion there is far to much condemnation of our recruiting staff and coach so far this off season..we must consider all the calamity that we have endured in the last few years to take into perspective where we are now,all the shouting about not signing top marquee players is a bit over the top when we have to sort the fundamental mistakes others have made,Reynolds,Matalino,Matto for eg,big money contracts,most of the time spent on the sidelines or left for greener pastures,the RF affair etc..
Maybe if we stop and think for a minute that the staff are constantly trying to do the right thing by the rules and what money they have but not to make the same mistake as others have previously.No mean feat since there was a huge mess to cleanup.
Im not worrying to much atm because Iam relying on the core people within the club to finally make the right decisions in regards to players and funds available.

Funds is not the problem not making finals for 8 straight years is ,even if some on this forum keep shooting me down.If LM signs for south’s for 400k as reported what does that say about the west’s tigers

 

[wonka]

I would rather have a lack of signings than sign anyone just for the sake of it.
At least sign players in the positions we need.