@ said:
Just sick of this. Every damn game is an arm wrestle or a heavy loss. We're going to be nothing unless this stops.
Over-reaction.
Comp is close, we need to expect to be in constant arm-wrestles and win them. Only 3 "heavy" losses (>=18 points) all year which is better than ever. In fact our worst losses this year (in order) are by 36, 22, 18, 14, 12, 10, 8, 4, 2, 2, 2, 2.
Look at Cronulla this year by comparison - 14 wins, 8 losses; 2 defeats >=18 points. Defeats margins: 20, 18, 8, 6, 4, 4, 2, 1.
We are actually superior to Cronulla in close matches - we've won 5/9 decided by 2 points or less (as you noted earlier) vs 2/4 for Cronulla, and 7/11 games decided by 4 points or less vs 6/10 for Cronulla.
It's not the arm-wrestles or heavy losses that are our problem, it's the middle-road games where we lose by a modest margin. I.e. games we aren't beaten heavily but arguably beaten comfortably.
Despite our good defensive record - 3rd-best in the comp and lowest in our history, our average losing margin in 2018 is 11.64 points. For Sharks, even though they are slightly worse than us in overall defence, their average losing margin is 7.88 points. In other words, we defend better than Sharks on average, but they score more points and get closer to their opponents even if they lose. They put themselves closer in more matches, even though they are not as good as Tigers at winning the really really tight matches.
So we have too many games where lost by 8-18 points, not just a few bigger losses. You are to expect the odd big loss and ~50% wins in close losses in a season. But we don't score enough points. We have too many matches where we defend ok but fall some 8-18 points short in attack, and that's the difference this year between teams like us and the Sharks.
Forget the close losses to Newcastle, Eels, Brisbane - Cronulla did the same against Brisbane, Manly; beat Parra by 2 points and Titans by 1 pt. We are as good as Sharks against the best sides in the comp.
No, I believe the games that hurt us this year were the middle-road matches, where we couldn't sustain our intensity to keep the game close - 14 point loss to Panthers, 18 pt loss to Titans, 22 pt loss to Warriors, 12 pt loss to Dogs, 10 pt loss to St George, 8 pt loss to Sharks.