Politics Super Thread - keep it all in here

[Citizen_Tiger]

Any thoughts when the Federal election may be this year ??

My guess would be that now they have abandoned the surplus ambition/promise, the Government will drag it out as long as they can… so second half of the year.

Assuming the global economy goes at a steady rate and Australia goes with it, the longer they hold out, the stupider the 'carbon tax will destroy everything' argument looks.

on that point:

https://twitter.com/TheKouk/status/278306437598420992

Since carbon tax started, the ASX up 11.9%, adding around $130 billion to value of Australian stock market

Australia's abundant and diverse natural resources attract high levels of foreign investment. A series of major investments, such as the US$40 billion Gorgon Liquid Natural Gas project, will continue to significantly expand the resources sector. Australia also has a large services sector and is a significant exporter of natural resources, energy, and food. That's what drives performance and the introduction of a fundamentally stupid tax was never going to change that. You want to start recounting history accurately, rather than trying to create a sense of doom that never existed

As for the Kouk's blog, you could have come up with someone credible, not a Keating loving Marxist lap dog

 

[southerntiger]

Any thoughts when the Federal election may be this year ??

My guess would be that now they have abandoned the surplus ambition/promise, the Government will drag it out as long as they can… so second half of the year.

Assuming the global economy goes at a steady rate and Australia goes with it, the longer they hold out, the stupider the 'carbon tax will destroy everything' argument looks.

on that point:

https://twitter.com/TheKouk/status/278306437598420992

Since carbon tax started, the ASX up 11.9%, adding around $130 billion to value of Australian stock market

Australia's abundant and diverse natural resources attract high levels of foreign investment. A series of major investments, such as the US$40 billion Gorgon Liquid Natural Gas project, will continue to significantly expand the resources sector. Australia also has a large services sector and is a significant exporter of natural resources, energy, and food. That's what drives performance and the introduction of a fundamentally stupid tax was never going to change that. You want to start recounting history accurately, rather than trying to create a sense of doom that never existed

As for the Kouk's blog, you could have come up with someone credible, not a Keating loving Marxist lap dog

I dont think he is saying that the increase is attributable to the carbon tax just that the tax has clearly not had the effect that conservatives claimed it would. Just like the GST, it was always going to have a very neutral impact on the economy. Scare campaigns are always enjoyable though.

Are you seriously saying Keating was a Marxist? Crikey. The man who deregulated the banks and Telecom. The man who floated the dollar. The man who was the first advocate for a GST. He is about as Marxist as Adam Smith.

 

[Winnipeg]

Indeed, I think you misunderstood me Citizen Tiger

You want to start recounting history accurately, rather than trying to create a sense of doom that never existed

yeah…. what? I was pointing out that the 'sense of doom' was being created by the Coalition, and hasn't eventuated. Are you denying this? Or are you denying the scare campaign in the first place? did Tony Abbott not say things like [this?](http://www.phonytonyabbott.com/quotes/tony-abbott-whyalla-and-carbon-tax)

…Whyalla will be wiped off the map by Julia Gillard’s carbon tax. Whyalla risks becoming a ghost town, an economic wasteland, if this carbon tax goes ahead and that’s true not just of Whyalla, it’s also true of Port Pirie, it’s true of Gladstone, it’s true of communities in the Hunter Valley and the Illawarra in New South Wales, it’s true of Kwinana in Western Australia, it’s true of the La Trobe Valley, Portland, places like that in Victoria. There’s not a state and there’s hardly a region in this country that wouldn’t have major communities devastated by a carbon tax if this goes ahead...

\

As for the Kouk's blog, you could have come up with someone credible, not a Keating loving Marxist lap dog

it's at this point I again suspect you are cyber trolling… I realise that Koukoulas is left leaning and that that probably irks you, but I don't think quoting a simple statement about the performance of the ASX is open to much bias, if any.

But just in case, here is a chart showing the same fact, from those noted communists at the ASX.

http://hfgapps.hubb.com/asxtools/Charts.aspx?asxCode=xao&compare=comp_index&indicies=0&pma1=0&pma2=0&volumeInd=2&vma=0&TimeFrame=D6


 

[Winnipeg]

Here's an interesting article which may set the cat amongst the pigeons
\
\
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/hey-big-spender-howard-the-king-of-the-loose-purse-strings-20130110-2cj32.html

AUSTRALIA'S most needlessly wasteful spending took place under the John Howard-led Coalition government rather than under the Whitlam, Rudd or Gillard Labor governments, an international study has found.
>
The International Monetary Fund examined 200 years of government financial records across 55 leading economies.
>
It identifies only two periods of Australian "fiscal profligacy" in recent years, both during John Howard's term in office - in 2003 at the start of the mining boom and during his final years in office between 2005 and 2007.

 

[Yossarian]

I saw that Winnipeg. Hopefully that will mean we won't have to listen to this falsehood that Howard and Costello were these frugal wise economists and the Rudd-Gillard-Swan governments have been wasteful. The report (from the IMF lest our neo-con friends try and suggest the source is flawed) also contains this item of interest:

The Rudd government's stimulus spending during the financial crisis doesn't rate as profligate because the measure makes allowance for spending needed to stabilise the economy.

Once again Sloppy Joe shows he is either blind to the facts or inherently dim. I doubt the latter, he's a smart guy.

 

[cktiger]

Forget all the tit for tat .
If you want to know if we are better off now than under Howard simply ask anyone running a small to medium size business- or one of the many people they have made redundant over the past 6 months.

 

[southerntiger]

cktiger,

I am neither a Labor or Liberal supporter (I voted for Howard 50% of the elections in which he ran) but that is absolute rubbish. Have you ever heard of a thing called the GFC? The Euro debt crisis?

Apples and oranges.

 

[Yossarian]

Well unemployment is around 5% - pretty good considering this is post-GFC and the general sluggishness of the global economy. Most of the small business owners I've spoken to complain about the BAS.

Anyway here are the unemployment stats from 1996 to now


http://www.tradingeconomics.com/charts/australia-unemployment-rate.png?s=aulfunem&d1=19960101&d2=20130131

 

[cktiger]

cktiger,

I am neither a Labor or Liberal supporter (I voted for Howard 50% of the elections in which he ran) but that is absolute rubbish. Have you ever heard of a thing called the GFC? The Euro debt crisis?

Apples and oranges.

Not rubbish when you are speaking from experience , southern.
I wan't talking about any crisis that had hit the world in either Howard's time or the current Labor governments - just a simple statement - ask somebody in business or unemployed what they think.
Unemployment figures can be manipulated by not including people who are working a few hours a week or have simply given up.
I can guarantee you business (especially small business) has never had it so hard - contrary to what Swan and Gillard are telling everybody.

 

[southerntiger]

cktiger,

It is absolute rubbish as you were attempting to attribute cause to the government. However, there are clearly more obvious causes, namely the international economic environment.

I am not a fan of Gillard or Rudd but as someone who has studied economics, and read what every economist was writing in 2007, there is no doubt that most of the choices that have been made by the Rudd and Gillard governments on economics have been sound. The stimulus worked and Australian was one of the few countries which has held together reasonably well post-2008.

I dont agree that business has never had it so hard. The recession in the late 80s/early 90s was clearly harder on small business as demonstrated by the massive unemployment rates.

The reality is that governments have less control over these things then they like to suggest in good times and critics like to believe in bad times.

 

[cktiger]

One question , southern.
Do you , or have you ever owned a business?
If you really don't think business has ever had it so hard ask someone who owns one.
And if you think it's easy getting a job I also suggest you ask someone trying to get one.
If the current Labor Government were doing wonderfully we'd all be happy - truth is they're not.

 

[southerntiger]

One question , southern.
Do you , or have you ever owned a business?
If you really don't think business has ever had it so hard ask someone who owns one.
And if you think it's easy getting a job I also suggest you ask someone trying to get one.
If the current Labor Government were doing wonderfully we'd all be happy - truth is they're not.

I do run my own business. I am fortunate to have had a very good 12 months. I accept others out there arent doing as well. I think how hard a business is doing depends upon the nature of the industry it operates in. I appreciate retail has been hammered. This is a function of many things (mainly the rise of online shopping) none of which have anything to do with the Federal Government.

I am not saying the Labor government is doing wonderfully. My view is that they have been generally competent on economic policy and the carbon tax has little or no impact upon the economy.

My issue with your view is that you are blaming the government for current problems with the economic climate. I dont agree with that. The current economic problems are a function of a very poor international economic environment. The biggest problem is that because banks got burnt in the GFC, many of them have got out of the lending game, particular for any significant projects, meaning it is very hard to raise finance for investments. This has had an impact across the economy generally.

What has the government done that you say has hurt the economy?

**Update:**

cktiger, I happen to have done a lot of work with Asia, Europe and the US. If you think we are hurting, you should speak to Americans and Europeans. I know a lot of young Americans who have graduated from college in the last 3 years who have had no hope of finding work and they had graduated with very good degrees (mainly Law) from Ivy League universities. Australia has been very fortunate in comparison.

 

[Gary_Bakerloo]

If the current Labor Government were doing wonderfully we'd all be happy - truth is they're not.

Everyone has to be happy for the government to be considered as doing a wonderful job? Impossible.

 

[genoshan]

A couple of things. I manage a shopping complex and retail is getting smashed from pillar to post. We have a record number of retailers asking for rent relief to avoid closing down. Not one of my retailers blame the government, in fact the general consensus is that Australia has avoided the worst of the GFC compared to other developed nations. I was speaking to a colleague in Europe who said it is bleak there and that Australia is seen as untouched by Europeans through this time.

Secondly, relating to the mining tax (resource tax) where the govt is looking to tax on resources, I have often wondered why there is not a bank tax ? Every quarter banks produce record profits, yet lay off staff and charge for ATMs etc … Tax the bastages. Give them the same tax rate at the mining giants pay and ensure the regulators do not allow them to pass this cost on to their customers.

 

[Gary_Bakerloo]

Banks don't profit from non renewable resources owned by the state.

 

[southerntiger]

Exactly Gary. The resources tax is not about a tax on the wealthy or on super profits.

Rather, it recognises that those who make their income from mining are fortunate to profit from a national resource that is, ultimately, not renewable. That seems fair to me.

 

[cktiger]

A couple of things. I manage a shopping complex and **retail is getting smashed from pillar to post.** We have a **record number of retailers asking for rent relief to avoid closing down.** Not one of my retailers blame the government, in fact the general consensus is that Australia has avoided the worst of the GFC compared to other developed nations. I was speaking to a colleague in Europe who said it is bleak there and that Australia is seen as untouched by Europeans through this time.

Secondly, relating to the mining tax (resource tax) where the govt is looking to tax on resources, I have often wondered why there is not a bank tax ? Every quarter banks produce record profits, yet lay off staff and charge for ATMs etc … Tax the bastages. Give them the same tax rate at the mining giants pay and ensure the regulators do not allow them to pass this cost on to their customers.

Here is the real world.
Online shopping from overseas has a miniscule effect on our economy.
Australia may be seen as 'untouched ' by Europe but ask your retailers and the staff they have laid off if they have a similar view

 

[hammertime]

Secondly, relating to the mining tax (resource tax) where the govt is looking to tax on resources, I have often wondered why there is not a bank tax ? Every quarter banks produce record profits, yet lay off staff and charge for ATMs etc … Tax the bastages. Give them the same tax rate at the mining giants pay and ensure the regulators do not allow them to pass this cost on to their customers.

Banks make a profit for their owners and despite what the conspiracies are, they do have price dampers through competition with each other.

If not, people only have themselves to blame when they don't switch banks when their bank laid off staff, charged for atms (which they don't actually do) or made too much money…..

If you have regulators start to get that involved. No one will risk starting up a business in Aus.

 

[stryker]

_A Galaxy poll has found John Howard is considered Australia's best Prime Minister over the past 25 years.\
\
35% voted Mr Howard as the best leader of a generation.
Kevin Rudd came in second with 16 %, closely followed by Bob Hawke.
Paul Keating was fourth while Julia Gillard attracted just 5% of the vote._

I didn't agree with everything Howard and his party did, but he was easily the most successful, smart, cunning and adept Prime Minister of this group. I am surprised Rudd scored so well. I thought he was a complete phony of a leader as he was in the job for himself and himself alone.

Who do you vote as Australia's best Prime Minister over the last quarter of a century?

 

[Yossarian]

It's a slightly misleading poll Stryker given the ALP vote was split between 4 PMs.