The cups

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saundo1982

New member
Just wondering if any one has some early thoughts on possible Melbourne and caulfield cup winners??

I feel Gai's glencadam gold is going to be tough to beat at caulfield if he draws a nice barrier. Likes to lead and caulfield can a be a leaders track.

As for the Melbourne cup I didn't mind ethiopia's run in the the Turnbull stakes. Finished 6th hitting the line well and drops 3kg for the cup.

Got my $5 all up on and looking at a return of around $1000 if they can win.

Not wasting my time on the cox plate this year as Pierro is going to be bloody near impossible beat.
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_Posted using RoarFEED 2012_
 
Glencadam Gold has looked good but he's not going to get a cushy time up front like he has had up in Sydney Then again Descerado won and G-Gold is a much better horse. As per usual lining up the foreign form will be the challenge.

Agree about Pierro - he looked scarily good at the Valley the other day. If he holds that form or improves he'll be very hard to beat.
 
Maluckyday showed plenty on the weekend. Settled one off the back and was stuck behind traffic but bustled free to finish second behind Tanby making huge ground in a 2500m race. If that race was 3200m Maluckyday would have won it by 10 lengths. At this stage I think there are a few horses that are far too short, Green Moon is one of them as is Red Cadeaux. Red Cadeaux will run light in the Melbourne Cup though so it could work but really its best ever run was last year and this years Cup is shaping to have a stronger field.

I do think Maluckyday is being heavily overlooked. Ran a pretty clear second to a peaking Americain in 2010 as basically a rookie with "back next year" written all over it but couldn't get a run last year. Peaking at the right time. I think that Maluckyday is a big, big chance at both cups. Definitely will be the first Australasian horse home in the Melbourne Cup and if he can settle in a good position will be very hard to beat.

Forgive me for being a Hawkes fanboy but I also think Niwot is being pretty overlooked too. Its run in the Turnbull Stakes on the weekend was eye catching considering it was 100/1 and ran eighth over 2000m without having the whip pulled and looked like it could do another two laps while the other horses forced the pace. It was jogging and keeping up with those around it. Beat more fancied horses including Linton, Rekindled Interest and Southern Speed handsomely. The runner up in that race Seville was also very eye catching. I can't help but feel that Green Moon is overmatched over 3200m and I don't know why it's up there as favourite. Seville was coming up to it over 2000m so I think it is the better of the two for the Cup.

One thing's for sure though, after next weekend all will be a lot clearer. I haven't seen a Caulfield Cup stacked so well for drawing form lines in many years.
 
@saundo1982 said:
Just wondering if any one has some early thoughts on possible Melbourne and caulfield cup winners??

I feel Gai's glencadam gold is going to be tough to beat at caulfield if he draws a nice barrier. Likes to lead and caulfield can a be a leaders track.

As for the Melbourne cup I didn't mind ethiopia's run in the the Turnbull stakes. Finished 6th hitting the line well and drops 3kg for the cup.

Got my $5 all up on and looking at a return of around $1000 if they can win.

Not wasting my time on the cox plate this year as Pierro is going to be bloody near impossible beat.
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_Posted using RoarFEED 2012_
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Not so confident about Pierro. Never ran that distance. No Slipper winner has ever won the Cox Plate. Tough, tough competition. Green Moon, More Joyous, Ocean Park, Sincero, Voila Ici and even All Too Hard combine to give him a very tough test. Capable of doing it yes but a given, hell no. That is a quality field.
 
Might I add that Maluckyday was carrying 59kg into the Bart Cummings with the winner the second weight at 55.5kg. Gotta say that was the best form run as far as Melbourne Cup betting goes. Maluckyday should be much shorter right now.
 
@MacDougall said:
@saundo1982 said:
Just wondering if any one has some early thoughts on possible Melbourne and caulfield cup winners??

I feel Gai's glencadam gold is going to be tough to beat at caulfield if he draws a nice barrier. Likes to lead and caulfield can a be a leaders track.

As for the Melbourne cup I didn't mind ethiopia's run in the the Turnbull stakes. Finished 6th hitting the line well and drops 3kg for the cup.

Got my $5 all up on and looking at a return of around $1000 if they can win.

Not wasting my time on the cox plate this year as Pierro is going to be bloody near impossible beat.
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_Posted using RoarFEED 2012_

Not so confident about Pierro. Never ran that distance. No Slipper winner has ever won the Cox Plate. Tough, tough competition. Green Moon, More Joyous, Ocean Park, Sincero, Voila Ici and even All Too Hard combine to give him a very tough test. Capable of doing it yes but a given, hell no. That is a quality field.
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Could not agree more about Pierro… I think he is MASSIVE unders and if he wins the Guineas as expected he will start almost odds on..
I have a massive question mark over the 2yo form from last year and the 3yo form from this year, him stepping into WFA class for the first time and the fact Nash won't be on board has enough ?? for me to steer well clear..

More Joyous, Green Moon, Ocean Park and Manighar are all Tough well credentialled WFA horses and he will not get his own way in the Cox Plate. Im happy for him to prove me wrong but these other horses are massive overs in the market and would be happy to be on them ahead of Pierro...

As for the Cups, Glencadam Gold is definatley a good shot for the Caufield Cup although i dont expect him to get an easy time in front like he did in the Metrop. I think Seville from the Lloyd Williams camp is a HUGE shot in the CC whilst i also like the internationals Brigantin and Shahwardi.
Whilst in the Melb Cup i did love the run of Maluckyday on Saturday and think he is the best Aussie hope, although i do feel it will be going overseas again. I like the look of a few, Tac De Boistron, Cavalryman, Mount Athos and the two i mentioned earlier in Brigantin and Shahwardi...

For anyone who is on Facebook there is a great group for people who are keen horse racing fans... Join and get plenty of top tips :slight_smile:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/189371871136103/
 
I had a speculator on the French horse, Colour Vision, a little while ago at 50/1 for the Cup. Toughest race of the year so a vast majority of my punting will be on the races around it on the day.

At this stage I like Glencadam Gold for the Caulfield Cup and I think Manighar is an ideal Cox Plate horse. Very tough race on a tricky course, you need a horse that can make more than one run and have tactical speed which is where some of the young superstars get found out. Manighar has professional written all over it.
 
@MacDougall said:
@saundo1982 said:
Just wondering if any one has some early thoughts on possible Melbourne and caulfield cup winners??

I feel Gai's glencadam gold is going to be tough to beat at caulfield if he draws a nice barrier. Likes to lead and caulfield can a be a leaders track.

As for the Melbourne cup I didn't mind ethiopia's run in the the Turnbull stakes. Finished 6th hitting the line well and drops 3kg for the cup.

Got my $5 all up on and looking at a return of around $1000 if they can win.

Not wasting my time on the cox plate this year as Pierro is going to be bloody near impossible beat.
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_Posted using RoarFEED 2012_

Not so confident about Pierro. Never ran that distance. No Slipper winner has ever won the Cox Plate. Tough, tough competition. Green Moon, More Joyous, Ocean Park, Sincero, Voila Ici and even All Too Hard combine to give him a very tough test. Capable of doing it yes but a given, hell no. That is a quality field.
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Octagonal ran 2nd in the Slipper. Pierro has won twice over 1600m so 2040 shouldn't be too much of a stretch. I agree competing in open class company will be the big test. I'm thinking he'd thrash All Too Hard. More Joyous could be the big danger
 
Second is not first. Yeah Pierro will probably smash All Too Hard but with about seven horses all with a chance in the race the pace will be all over the place. I don't see how this Cox Plate can be run to standards with the different champions and their different agendas. I think Ocean Park is the big worry. More Joyous hasn't lost in 2012 but it historically runs poorly in Melbourne and will be going into the Cox after running with 60.5 on its back in the Toorak.
 
Just looms as the sort of race a good solid horse on the third or fourth tier can steal. Wouldn't be surprised to see Pierro and MJ dueling with Ocean Park or Manighar swooping to steal.
 
Perhaps a reason no slipper winner has won a cox plate is that once they win a slipper owners and breeders let them kick on for maybe one more yr as a 3 yr old then off to the breeding barn before they loose more then that win and command top $$$ going out with loosing records.

Another reason maybe the fact that overall not many three yr old contest a cox plate,as they just arnt ready to take on top line older horses, unless the trainers think they are exceptional horses, ala So you think.

As for Nash not riding him well he'll have more joyous anyway and would think if he could make the weight it would be a bloody tough choice. But pretty sure Craig Williams has been booked for the ride and come carnival time there arnt to many better then him, a very very good replacement.

But that's why it's gambling!!
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Tell you what- Sincero has been nice & consistant this time around..might give Pierro a run for it's money. And don't write off the Qlder- Solzhenitzen- good quality horse- for the Cox.

Caulfield is an open race for mine, but I've liked the path December Draw has followed & think he'll be primed for that one.

Follow that form into the Melbourne Cup for mine with December Draw & Ethiopia as the 2 I'm watching carefully for that one..
 
@MacDougall said:
Second is not first. Yeah Pierro will probably smash All Too Hard but with about seven horses all with a chance in the race the pace will be all over the place. I don't see how this Cox Plate can be run to standards with the different champions and their different agendas. I think Ocean Park is the big worry. More Joyous hasn't lost in 2012 but it historically runs poorly in Melbourne and will be going into the Cox after running with 60.5 on its back in the Toorak.
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Yes yes yes I realise 2nd isn't 1st!! I was just making the point you can run well in the Slipper and still win a Cox Plate.

Is More Joyous' Melb record really that poor? She was 5th in a Cox plate and ran poorly under a big weight in that mare's race when she had clearly reached the end of her campaign but she has won the Turnbull and some other races in Melboure. In any case only weight will stop her winning the Turnbull. Based on what I've seen Pierro looks a better horse than her but who knows how soft his kills have been?
 
@MacDougall said:
Just looms as the sort of race a good solid horse on the third or fourth tier can steal. Wouldn't be surprised to see Pierro and MJ dueling with Ocean Park or Manighar swooping to steal.
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You think Pierro will lead and try to kick around the turn? More Joyous probably ridden just off the lead?
 
No more that I can see the possibility of Ocean Park or the like sitting well deep and turning the race into a 400m sprint. Pierro may well do that as well. I guess the suggestion is that the quality of the field makes it quite a bit more of a lottery than any other race Pierro has been in. This bodes well for More Joyous. I think MJ should be the favourite over Pierro tbqh.

Pierro will definitely not lead. Gai has too many other horses in the race to pace set.
 
I feel pretty confident Glencadam Gold should get the money in the Caulfield… The test will be which horse can go past it to get the win?!

The Cox is a little harder, but I feel More Joyous or Green Moon are my preferred options. Pierro looks good, but the Cox is not an easy race to win. Jump on Pierro this week if you want to back a winner, but you wont get much back?!

Melbourne Cup... Well, toss a coin who will actually start. I liked December Draw last week [But I'm also a M Rodd fan], and there are a few handy imports this year. Dunaden might get the Bin the cash, but I didnt miss Malucky Day on Saturday and if it gets to its 2010 Form, anything could happen?!
 
The Cox plate should be a cracker of a race with the winner coming from Pierro, More Joyous, Ocean Park & Green Moon but i give Proisir, Rekindled Interest, Ethiopia & Sincero all an outside chance. I like Pierro to remain unbeaten.

The Caulfield Cup i can't go past Glencadam Gold & i wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't lead & sits just behind the leaders, making a run at the 2000m mark. I'm surprised they have gone for Pumper to ride him after Berry rode it a treat last weekend.

The Cup i'll wait until after the Mckinnon & Caulfield Cup to decide who i'll back.

Having seen It's A Dundeel for the first time last saturday, i think it will win the VRC Derby.

On a side note, Francesca Cummani is one fine looking filly
 
I was on Seville for the Caulfield but it's out for the Spring now. Glencadam Gold should win. At this stage I honestly think Maluckyday is a huge shot for the MC. I just hope it can get into the Caulfield Cup somehow so we can get a better grasp of where he's at.
 
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