Juro
Well-known member
Thanks for the kind words, everyone. Good to know that I'm not just doing this for myself… :slight_smile:
The J(uro) Curve
- Thread starter Juro
- Start date
Juro
Well-known member
An underdog win is one of the sweetest things in rugby league, except when we are the favourites… This loss sees us fall to our lowest chance of making the finals for the year, at 35%. We are now in a position where we will need to win at least 4 of our remaining 6 games.
Key results:
- 0.03% chance of minor premiership (Sea Eagles are 67%, Rabbitohs are 15%. Titans are the 4th team to reach 0%.)
- 6% chance of finishing in top 4 (Sea Eagles are 97%, 3 teams are 0%)
- 35% chance of finishing in top 8 (Sea Eagles are 99.96%, Raiders join Sharks on 0%)
- 16% chance of finishing in the bottom 4 (guess I now have to add this stat, for the moment)
- 0.1% chance of wooden spoon (Sharks are 51%, Raiders are 38%, Knights are 10%. Cowboys join 8 teams on 0%)
It is hard to stay positive when you see your season slipping away, but at least we are still in the fight. Yes, the cup is 35% full, not 65% empty!
Key results:
- 0.03% chance of minor premiership (Sea Eagles are 67%, Rabbitohs are 15%. Titans are the 4th team to reach 0%.)
- 6% chance of finishing in top 4 (Sea Eagles are 97%, 3 teams are 0%)
- 35% chance of finishing in top 8 (Sea Eagles are 99.96%, Raiders join Sharks on 0%)
- 16% chance of finishing in the bottom 4 (guess I now have to add this stat, for the moment)
- 0.1% chance of wooden spoon (Sharks are 51%, Raiders are 38%, Knights are 10%. Cowboys join 8 teams on 0%)
It is hard to stay positive when you see your season slipping away, but at least we are still in the fight. Yes, the cup is 35% full, not 65% empty!
Juro
Well-known member
It was another wierd round for results this week, with 6 of the 8 games being won by the lower ranked team on the table. The only higher ranked teams to win were Manly and Souths.
The curve for expected cut-off for making the finals dipped slightly this week.
At the moment, these are the chances of 9th place finishing on the following scores:
- 26: 9%
- 28: 78%
- 30: 13%
The curve for expected cut-off for making the finals dipped slightly this week.
At the moment, these are the chances of 9th place finishing on the following scores:
- 26: 9%
- 28: 78%
- 30: 13%
PYMBLEPETE
New member
We're stuffed!
Gary_Bakerloo
New member
Juro,
The measure of robustness of any stochastic model is its ability to best capture the expected range of outcomes. In finance, many questioned how stochastic models did not capture the severe left tail event of the GFC. The key issue was that many models underestimated the impact of irrational decision making by investors either through either exhuberance (over buying) or depression (over selling). Many models have now attempted to capture these elements of behavioral finance.
Which brings us to your model. Have you attempted to build in the expected impact of having complete and utter morons running the front office of the club?
The measure of robustness of any stochastic model is its ability to best capture the expected range of outcomes. In finance, many questioned how stochastic models did not capture the severe left tail event of the GFC. The key issue was that many models underestimated the impact of irrational decision making by investors either through either exhuberance (over buying) or depression (over selling). Many models have now attempted to capture these elements of behavioral finance.
Which brings us to your model. Have you attempted to build in the expected impact of having complete and utter morons running the front office of the club?
AngryEmu
Member
@Gary Bakerloo said:
If Juro were to factor that in it would be a very boring graph. Chance of making top 8 at season start would be 0%, maintaining the status quo right till Round 26 when it peaks at 0%.
Juro
Well-known member
LOL, no! My model takes the simplistic assumption that all teams are equal, and the same goes for their management. You should take this into account when you interpret the results of the model.
Juro
Well-known member
Okay, we're getting to the point of the season where I start talking about being still in it, "mathematically". The next stage is where I start talking about the upcoming cricket season.
We are now more likely to make the bottom 4 than the top 8, with our chances of making the finals down to 17%.
Key results:
- 0% chance of minor premiership (Sea Eagles are 72%, Rabbitohs are 17%. We join the list of teams on 0%, along with the Broncos and Dragons)
- 1% chance of finishing in top 4 (Sea Eagles are 99%. Titans join 3 teams on 0%)
- 17% chance of finishing in top 8 (Sea Eagles are 100%. 2 teams are on 0%)
- 22% chance of finishing in the bottom 4
- 0.1% chance of wooden spoon (Sharks are 52%, Raiders are 39%. Eels join 9 teams on 0%)
It is now possible that even if we win our final 5 games, we could still finish as low as 10th.
We are now more likely to make the bottom 4 than the top 8, with our chances of making the finals down to 17%.
Key results:
- 0% chance of minor premiership (Sea Eagles are 72%, Rabbitohs are 17%. We join the list of teams on 0%, along with the Broncos and Dragons)
- 1% chance of finishing in top 4 (Sea Eagles are 99%. Titans join 3 teams on 0%)
- 17% chance of finishing in top 8 (Sea Eagles are 100%. 2 teams are on 0%)
- 22% chance of finishing in the bottom 4
- 0.1% chance of wooden spoon (Sharks are 52%, Raiders are 39%. Eels join 9 teams on 0%)
It is now possible that even if we win our final 5 games, we could still finish as low as 10th.
Juro
Well-known member
The curve goes up and we go down. Not looking good at all.
At the moment, these are the chances of 9th place finishing on the following scores:
- 26: 8%
- 28: 74%
- 30: 18%
At the moment, these are the chances of 9th place finishing on the following scores:
- 26: 8%
- 28: 74%
- 30: 18%
happy_tiger
Well-known member
Love your stuff Juro
So basically what you are saying is we need a couple of clubs to have majorly exceeded the salary cap and for them to have points stripped
So basically what you are saying is we need a couple of clubs to have majorly exceeded the salary cap and for them to have points stripped
Juro
Well-known member
We're down to do-or-die. 4 games to go, 4 wins will see us on 30 points. Yes, still a mathematical chance for at least one more week. Our chances of making the finals are now only 4%.
Key results:
- 0% chance of minor premiership (Sea Eagles are 51%, Rabbitohs are 28%. Eels are the 8th team to hit 0%)
- 0% chance of finishing in top 4 (Sea Eagles are 96%. We hit 0% along with the Dragons, joining 4 other teams)
- 4% chance of finishing in top 8 (Sea Eagles are 100%. Knights are the 3rd team to hit 0%)
- 32% chance of finishing in the bottom 4
- 0% chance of wooden spoon (Sharks are 56%, Raiders are 42%. We hit 0% along with the Dragons, joining 10 other teams)
So after 22 rounds, we hit 0% chance of making the top 4\. It took us 19 rounds to do this last year.
We have also hit 0% chance of coming last. It took us 24 rounds to do this last year. So it's not all bad news!!!
Key results:
- 0% chance of minor premiership (Sea Eagles are 51%, Rabbitohs are 28%. Eels are the 8th team to hit 0%)
- 0% chance of finishing in top 4 (Sea Eagles are 96%. We hit 0% along with the Dragons, joining 4 other teams)
- 4% chance of finishing in top 8 (Sea Eagles are 100%. Knights are the 3rd team to hit 0%)
- 32% chance of finishing in the bottom 4
- 0% chance of wooden spoon (Sharks are 56%, Raiders are 42%. We hit 0% along with the Dragons, joining 10 other teams)
So after 22 rounds, we hit 0% chance of making the top 4\. It took us 19 rounds to do this last year.
We have also hit 0% chance of coming last. It took us 24 rounds to do this last year. So it's not all bad news!!!
Juro
Well-known member
The chances of 30 not being enough (also the best we can get) are increasing week on week.
At the moment, these are the chances of 9th place finishing on the following scores:
- 26: 4%
- 28: 69%
- 30: 27%
At the moment, these are the chances of 9th place finishing on the following scores:
- 26: 4%
- 28: 69%
- 30: 27%
Juro
Well-known member
Wait, we're not out of it yet. Still a 0.1% chance of making the finals.
Key results:
- 0% chance of minor premiership (Sea Eagles are 56%, Rabbitohs are 28%, Panthers are 13%, Roosters are 5%, Storm are 0.04%. Everyone else is 0%)
- 0% chance of finishing in top 4 (Sea Eagles are 99.8%. 6 teams are 0%)
- 0.1% chance of finishing in top 8 (Rabbitohs and Panthers join Sea Eagles on 100%. Titans are the 4th team to hit 0%)
- 47% chance of finishing in the bottom 4
- 0% chance of wooden spoon (Sharks are 60%, Raiders are 40%. Titans and Knights join all the other teams on 0%)
All we need is to win all of our remaining games, and have the Eels, Cowboys, Warriors, … lose all of theirs. So chins up, everyone!!!
Key results:
- 0% chance of minor premiership (Sea Eagles are 56%, Rabbitohs are 28%, Panthers are 13%, Roosters are 5%, Storm are 0.04%. Everyone else is 0%)
- 0% chance of finishing in top 4 (Sea Eagles are 99.8%. 6 teams are 0%)
- 0.1% chance of finishing in top 8 (Rabbitohs and Panthers join Sea Eagles on 100%. Titans are the 4th team to hit 0%)
- 47% chance of finishing in the bottom 4
- 0% chance of wooden spoon (Sharks are 60%, Raiders are 40%. Titans and Knights join all the other teams on 0%)
All we need is to win all of our remaining games, and have the Eels, Cowboys, Warriors, … lose all of theirs. So chins up, everyone!!!
Juro
Well-known member
Not that it really matters any more, but here is the graph of what 9th place will be:
At the moment, these are the chances of 9th place finishing on the following scores:
- 26: 8%
- 28: 75%
- 30: 17%
At the moment, these are the chances of 9th place finishing on the following scores:
- 26: 8%
- 28: 75%
- 30: 17%
happy_tiger
Well-known member
I'm sure the Juro curve graph would like to follow another side
Juro
Well-known member
Okay, no chance of anything this week for us, apart from trying to hold onto 12th place.
And seeing as how the top 8 is no longer achievable, I guess I will have to change the graph to the chances of ending in the bottom 4.
We can finish anywhere from 12th to 14th.
- 12th place: 55%
- 13th place: 29%
- 14th place: 17%
Key results (for the other teams):
- minor premiership: Sea Eagles - 49%, Rabbitohs and Roosters - 22%, Panthers - 8%. Storm are the 12th team to hit 0%.
- top 4: Sea Eagles - 99.8%. Broncos, Eels and Warriors join 6 other teams on 0%.
- top 8: Roosters are the 4th team to hit 100%. We are the 5th team to hit 0%.
- wooden spoon: Sharks - 93%, Raiders - 7%.
Our for and against is terrible this year. With 2 games to go:
- we have scored 382 (17.4 per game). This is our 2nd worst season, only beating 2013 (16.1 per game).
- we have conceded 594 (27.0 per game). This is our 3rd worst season, only beating 2001 (28.7) and 2013 (28.6).
- our F/A is -212 (-9.6 per game). This is our 3rd worst season, only beating 2013 (-12.5) and 2001 (-10.5).
Hopefully we can improve these stats in the remaining 2 games.
And seeing as how the top 8 is no longer achievable, I guess I will have to change the graph to the chances of ending in the bottom 4.
We can finish anywhere from 12th to 14th.
- 12th place: 55%
- 13th place: 29%
- 14th place: 17%
Key results (for the other teams):
- minor premiership: Sea Eagles - 49%, Rabbitohs and Roosters - 22%, Panthers - 8%. Storm are the 12th team to hit 0%.
- top 4: Sea Eagles - 99.8%. Broncos, Eels and Warriors join 6 other teams on 0%.
- top 8: Roosters are the 4th team to hit 100%. We are the 5th team to hit 0%.
- wooden spoon: Sharks - 93%, Raiders - 7%.
Our for and against is terrible this year. With 2 games to go:
- we have scored 382 (17.4 per game). This is our 2nd worst season, only beating 2013 (16.1 per game).
- we have conceded 594 (27.0 per game). This is our 3rd worst season, only beating 2001 (28.7) and 2013 (28.6).
- our F/A is -212 (-9.6 per game). This is our 3rd worst season, only beating 2013 (-12.5) and 2001 (-10.5).
Hopefully we can improve these stats in the remaining 2 games.
Juro
Well-known member
And for those who are still interested, here is the graph of what 9th place will be:
At the moment, these are the chances of 9th place finishing on the following scores:
- 26: 0%
- 28: 61%
- 30: 39%
At the moment, these are the chances of 9th place finishing on the following scores:
- 26: 0%
- 28: 61%
- 30: 39%
happy_tiger
Well-known member
Juro
I'm so sorry the Tigers broke the Juro Curve again
Maybe you should send the bill to either a Mr G Mayer ,Mr R Farah or a Mr B Smith depending on who you think has been the most to blame
By the way , what's the chances we will finish 13th now
I'm so sorry the Tigers broke the Juro Curve again
Maybe you should send the bill to either a Mr G Mayer ,Mr R Farah or a Mr B Smith depending on who you think has been the most to blame
By the way , what's the chances we will finish 13th now