Juro
Well-known member
@happy tiger said:
Hehehe. Yes, another year of flatlining curves…
As mentioned in my 1st post, chance of finishing 13th is currently 29%.
The J(uro) Curve
- Thread starter Juro
- Start date
Hehehe. Yes, another year of flatlining curves…
As mentioned in my 1st post, chance of finishing 13th is currently 29%.
happy_tiger
Well-known member
@Juro said:
Sorry Juro missed that
Love your work mate
Juro
Well-known member
Our chances of ending in the bottom 4 spiked with our loss to the Raiders and the Knights beating the Eels.
We can still finish anywhere from 12th to 14th.
- 12th place: 26%
- 13th place: 48%
- 14th place: 26%
Key results (for the other teams):
- minor premiership: Sea Eagles - 49%, Rabbitohs and Roosters - 25%. Pretty impressive to still have 3 teams fighting for this in the final round.
- top 4: Sea Eagles, Rabbitohs and Roosters - 100%. Panthers - 63%, Cowboys - 25%, Storm - 12%, Bulldogs - 0.4%.
- top 8: Sea Eagles, Rabbitohs, Roosters and Cowboys - 100%. Storm - 88%, Bulldogs - 87%, Broncos - 59%, Warriors - 53%, Eels - 12%.
- wooden spoon: Sharks - 100%.
The pain is almost over… but then there is always next year!
We can still finish anywhere from 12th to 14th.
- 12th place: 26%
- 13th place: 48%
- 14th place: 26%
Key results (for the other teams):
- minor premiership: Sea Eagles - 49%, Rabbitohs and Roosters - 25%. Pretty impressive to still have 3 teams fighting for this in the final round.
- top 4: Sea Eagles, Rabbitohs and Roosters - 100%. Panthers - 63%, Cowboys - 25%, Storm - 12%, Bulldogs - 0.4%.
- top 8: Sea Eagles, Rabbitohs, Roosters and Cowboys - 100%. Storm - 88%, Bulldogs - 87%, Broncos - 59%, Warriors - 53%, Eels - 12%.
- wooden spoon: Sharks - 100%.
The pain is almost over… but then there is always next year!
Juro
Well-known member
It's a good thing we don't need to worry about the anxiety of whether we'll be playing finals football this year. The graph of what 9th place will be has broken through the 29 barrier for the first time in the years I've projected:
At the moment, these are the chances of 9th place finishing on the following scores:
- 28: 49.6%
- 30: 50.4%
At the moment, these are the chances of 9th place finishing on the following scores:
- 28: 49.6%
- 30: 50.4%
Juro
Well-known member
So we finished 13th. That's 2 places higher than last year. We're headed in the right direction!!!
And here is the end of year recap, starting from the top.
**MINOR PREMIERSHIP**
The Roosters picked up the minor premiership. They came from nowhere to pick it up too, being as little as 2.5% chance after Round 21, 6 points behind the Sea Eagles at the time. They then won all of their remaining games to scrape home.
Meanwhile, the Sea Eagles reached their peak at 72% after Round 21\. They then choked spectacularly, losing 3 of their last 5 games.
Other teams reached their peak as follows:
Bulldogs - 36% (Round 10)
Panthers - 28% (Round 18)
Rabbitohs - 28% (Round 22)
Titans - 18% (Round 6)
Dragons - 16% (Round 3)
Storm - 14% (Round 3)
Wests Tigers - 14% (Round 7)
Broncos - 12% (Round 13)
Eels - 10% (Round 6)
Cowboys - 8% (Round 1)
Raiders, Sharks, Warriors - 6% (season kickoff)
And here is the end of year recap, starting from the top.
**MINOR PREMIERSHIP**
The Roosters picked up the minor premiership. They came from nowhere to pick it up too, being as little as 2.5% chance after Round 21, 6 points behind the Sea Eagles at the time. They then won all of their remaining games to scrape home.
Meanwhile, the Sea Eagles reached their peak at 72% after Round 21\. They then choked spectacularly, losing 3 of their last 5 games.
Other teams reached their peak as follows:
Bulldogs - 36% (Round 10)
Panthers - 28% (Round 18)
Rabbitohs - 28% (Round 22)
Titans - 18% (Round 6)
Dragons - 16% (Round 3)
Storm - 14% (Round 3)
Wests Tigers - 14% (Round 7)
Broncos - 12% (Round 13)
Eels - 10% (Round 6)
Cowboys - 8% (Round 1)
Raiders, Sharks, Warriors - 6% (season kickoff)
Juro
Well-known member
**TOP 4**
The Roosters, Sea Eagles, Rabbitohs and Panthers finished top 4 (or if you like, East, North, South and West Sydney). Out of these teams, the Panthers maintained the best chance of finishing in the top 4 throughout the season. They only dipped as low as 21% in Round 8.
The others were never too far away either, dipping down to:
Sea Eagles - 20% (Round 1)
Roosters - 14% (Round 6)
Rabbitohs - 14% (Round 4)
Of the teams that missed the top 4, the Bulldogs came the closest. They were sitting at 77% after Round 18, before losing 5 of their remaining 8 games.
Other teams reached their peak as follows:
Titans - 53% (Round 8)
Dragons - 47% (Round 3)
Broncos - 47% (Round 13)
Wests Tigers - 46% (Round 7)
Storm - 44% (Round 3)
Eels - 35% (Round 6)
Warriors - 34% (Round 18)
Cowboys - 31% (Round 1)
Knights, Raiders, Sharks - 25% (season kickoff)
The Roosters, Sea Eagles, Rabbitohs and Panthers finished top 4 (or if you like, East, North, South and West Sydney). Out of these teams, the Panthers maintained the best chance of finishing in the top 4 throughout the season. They only dipped as low as 21% in Round 8.
The others were never too far away either, dipping down to:
Sea Eagles - 20% (Round 1)
Roosters - 14% (Round 6)
Rabbitohs - 14% (Round 4)
Of the teams that missed the top 4, the Bulldogs came the closest. They were sitting at 77% after Round 18, before losing 5 of their remaining 8 games.
Other teams reached their peak as follows:
Titans - 53% (Round 8)
Dragons - 47% (Round 3)
Broncos - 47% (Round 13)
Wests Tigers - 46% (Round 7)
Storm - 44% (Round 3)
Eels - 35% (Round 6)
Warriors - 34% (Round 18)
Cowboys - 31% (Round 1)
Knights, Raiders, Sharks - 25% (season kickoff)
Juro
Well-known member
**TOP 8**
Of the teams that made the top 8, the Panthers dropped the least, only getting as low as 49.8% after Round 8.
The team that came from the furthest out to make it was the Broncos, who were down to 24% after Round 23\. The Cowboys also came from well back in the pack, being as low as 27% after Round 17.
A lot of teams had a good shot at making the top 8 but ended up falling short. These were led by the Titans, who were as high as 80% after Round 8.
Other teams reached their peak as follows:
Warriors - 78% (Round 22)
Wests Tigers - 74% (Round 7)
Dragons - 74% (Round 3)
Eels - 73% (Round 14)
Knights, Raiders, Sharks - 50% (season kickoff)
I feel a bit sorry for the Warriors. They had a slow start to the year, but seemed to be coming home with some good momentum. Just when they had worked themselves into a strong position, they collapsed in the final 3 rounds. The other 4 teams in the graph had strong starts to the season, before falling away in the middle rounds.
Of the teams that made the top 8, the Panthers dropped the least, only getting as low as 49.8% after Round 8.
The team that came from the furthest out to make it was the Broncos, who were down to 24% after Round 23\. The Cowboys also came from well back in the pack, being as low as 27% after Round 17.
A lot of teams had a good shot at making the top 8 but ended up falling short. These were led by the Titans, who were as high as 80% after Round 8.
Other teams reached their peak as follows:
Warriors - 78% (Round 22)
Wests Tigers - 74% (Round 7)
Dragons - 74% (Round 3)
Eels - 73% (Round 14)
Knights, Raiders, Sharks - 50% (season kickoff)
I feel a bit sorry for the Warriors. They had a slow start to the year, but seemed to be coming home with some good momentum. Just when they had worked themselves into a strong position, they collapsed in the final 3 rounds. The other 4 teams in the graph had strong starts to the season, before falling away in the middle rounds.
Juro
Well-known member
**BOTTOM 4**
How did we end up in the bottom 4, after being so high up for the first half of the comp? We were sitting at only 7% chance of finishing so low after Round 16…
But at least we weren't the biggest chokers. The Titans were actually as low as 6% after Round 8\. Does that make you feel any better?
The other 2 teams to make up this group were there for pretty much the whole season:
Sharks - 25% (season kickoff)
Raiders - 24% (Round 2)
Of the teams to escape this fate, the Knights made the best comeback. They were all but certain, at 94% after Round 21 before winning 4 of their last 5 games.
Other teams reached their peak as follows:
Dragons - 53% (Round 12)
Warriors - 48% (Round 7)
Cowboys - 43% (Round 7)
Rabbitohs - 37% (Round 4)
Roosters - 35% (Round 6)
Eels - 33% (Round 3)
Bulldogs - 30% (Round 1)
Sea Eagles - 30% (Round 1)
Broncos - 26% (Round 9)
Panthers, Storm - 25% (season kickoff)
How did we end up in the bottom 4, after being so high up for the first half of the comp? We were sitting at only 7% chance of finishing so low after Round 16…
But at least we weren't the biggest chokers. The Titans were actually as low as 6% after Round 8\. Does that make you feel any better?
The other 2 teams to make up this group were there for pretty much the whole season:
Sharks - 25% (season kickoff)
Raiders - 24% (Round 2)
Of the teams to escape this fate, the Knights made the best comeback. They were all but certain, at 94% after Round 21 before winning 4 of their last 5 games.
Other teams reached their peak as follows:
Dragons - 53% (Round 12)
Warriors - 48% (Round 7)
Cowboys - 43% (Round 7)
Rabbitohs - 37% (Round 4)
Roosters - 35% (Round 6)
Eels - 33% (Round 3)
Bulldogs - 30% (Round 1)
Sea Eagles - 30% (Round 1)
Broncos - 26% (Round 9)
Panthers, Storm - 25% (season kickoff)
Juro
Well-known member
**WOODEN SPOON**
The race for the wooden spoon was basically a 3 horse race for most of the season. And thankfully, we weren't one of the horses this year!
The Sharks of course picked it up, and they were a likely candidate all year. Their lowest chance of getting the spoon was before a ball had been dropped, at 6% before season kickoff.
Other teams reached their peak as follows:
Knights - 44% (Round 14)
Raiders - 42% (Round 22)
Warriors - 14% (Round 7)
Cowboys - 12% (Round 7)
Rabbitohs - 10% (Round 4)
Dragons - 10% (Round 12)
Roosters - 9% (Round 6)
Wests Tigers - 9% (Round 1)
Eels - 9% (Round 3)
Bulldogs - 8% (Round 1)
Sea Eagles - 8% (Round 1)
Broncos, Panthers, Storm, Titans - 6% (season kickoff)
The race for the wooden spoon was basically a 3 horse race for most of the season. And thankfully, we weren't one of the horses this year!
The Sharks of course picked it up, and they were a likely candidate all year. Their lowest chance of getting the spoon was before a ball had been dropped, at 6% before season kickoff.
Other teams reached their peak as follows:
Knights - 44% (Round 14)
Raiders - 42% (Round 22)
Warriors - 14% (Round 7)
Cowboys - 12% (Round 7)
Rabbitohs - 10% (Round 4)
Dragons - 10% (Round 12)
Roosters - 9% (Round 6)
Wests Tigers - 9% (Round 1)
Eels - 9% (Round 3)
Bulldogs - 8% (Round 1)
Sea Eagles - 8% (Round 1)
Broncos, Panthers, Storm, Titans - 6% (season kickoff)
Juro
Well-known member
Welcome back to another year of the Juro Curve. Lets hope we can get it going in the right direction for once!
4 rounds in, and we are 2 and 2, just like we were in 3 of the last 4 years (2014, 2013, 2011). But this year we still have a postive F/A!!!
Not surprisingly, the graph isn't very exciting after only 4 rounds. We are sitting on 50% chance of making the top 8.
Key results:
- 5% chance of minor premiership (Knights are 19%, Sharks are 0.7%)
- 23% chance of finishing in top 4 (Knights are 52%, Sharks are 6%)
- 50% chance of finishing in top 8 (Knights are 79%, Sharks are 21%)
- 22% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Knights are 7%, Sharks are 53%)
- 4% chance of wooden spoon (Knights are 1%, Sharks are 20%)
Yes, it has been 4 years since we made the finals…
4 rounds in, and we are 2 and 2, just like we were in 3 of the last 4 years (2014, 2013, 2011). But this year we still have a postive F/A!!!
Not surprisingly, the graph isn't very exciting after only 4 rounds. We are sitting on 50% chance of making the top 8.
Key results:
- 5% chance of minor premiership (Knights are 19%, Sharks are 0.7%)
- 23% chance of finishing in top 4 (Knights are 52%, Sharks are 6%)
- 50% chance of finishing in top 8 (Knights are 79%, Sharks are 21%)
- 22% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Knights are 7%, Sharks are 53%)
- 4% chance of wooden spoon (Knights are 1%, Sharks are 20%)
Yes, it has been 4 years since we made the finals…
tig_prmz
Well-known member
Sorry mate but would you be able to make a new thread for this year?
Great work as always, mate. One of my favourite threads!
_Posted using RoarFEED 4.2.0_
Great work as always, mate. One of my favourite threads!
_Posted using RoarFEED 4.2.0_
Juro
Well-known member
Personally, I prefer having all the history of the curve over the years in the one thread, since I am always comparing back to previous years anyway. Why would you want a new thread?
Juro
Well-known member
5 rounds in, and we are 3 and 2, just like we were in 2011 and 2014\. We are marginally ahead of those years (60% compared to 59%), partially thanks to our for and against being better.
It was a bit of a funny round this week. 5 of the bottom 8 got up, including the bottom 2\. Meanwhile, the top 2 teams got done. This had the effect of making the ladder tighter.
Key results:
- 8% chance of minor premiership (Rabbitohs are 15%, Manly are 1%)
- 31% chance of finishing in top 4 (Rabbitohs are 47%, Manly are 8%)
- 60% chance of finishing in top 8 (Rabbitohs are 74%, Manly are 25%)
- 17% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Rabbitohs are 8%, Manly are 48%)
- 3% chance of wooden spoon (Rabbitohs are 1%, Manly are 16%)
Oh, how I would dearly love to see Manly get the spoon. Still, too early to get excited…
It was a bit of a funny round this week. 5 of the bottom 8 got up, including the bottom 2\. Meanwhile, the top 2 teams got done. This had the effect of making the ladder tighter.
Key results:
- 8% chance of minor premiership (Rabbitohs are 15%, Manly are 1%)
- 31% chance of finishing in top 4 (Rabbitohs are 47%, Manly are 8%)
- 60% chance of finishing in top 8 (Rabbitohs are 74%, Manly are 25%)
- 17% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Rabbitohs are 8%, Manly are 48%)
- 3% chance of wooden spoon (Rabbitohs are 1%, Manly are 16%)
Oh, how I would dearly love to see Manly get the spoon. Still, too early to get excited…
Thanks Juro….love your thread and updates...lets hope we can cement a top 8 spot percentage wise earlier rather than later...keep up the good work...
tig_prmz
Well-known member
@Juro said:
Ah fair enough. I hate scrolling through pages on roar feed and hate how laggy it gets when you have so many graphs on a page.
_Posted using RoarFEED 4.2.0_
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