The J(uro) Curve

[bigsiro]

Juro, love your stats . No idea how you generate those percentages but great stuff!

30 points generally guarantees top 8 and 36 points guarantees top 4.

-We are currently on 10 points.
-Add the two byes = 14 points.
-There are 19 rounds left; two of which are byes, makes 17 rounds (of play) left.
-So, 34 points available of which we need 16.
-Thus, we need to win 8 games from our last 17 in order to guarantee finish in the top 8.

That is still a tall order for our over-performing, underdog team if you ask me!

And you say there's a 74% chance of that happening? Let's beat the Titans this week and increase those odds!

Side note: our previous best finish is 34 points (twice). In order to better that and achieve 36 points (and thereby a guaranteed top 4 finish) we need to win 11 from our last 17 matches. Odds Juro?

And yes, I know we should "take one game at a time" but it's hard not to get excited.

 

[Juro]

On average, 28 points and a positive F/A would be expected to get you in the top 8\. From here, that requires 7 wins from 17 games. 30 points should make you safe.

My model assumes a 50% chance of winning any given game, with a curved distribution of F/A in that game.

There is a 83% chance of winning at least 7 out of 17 games.
There is a 69% chance of winning at least 8 out of 17 games.

So my answer of 74% is reasonable. Note that my model takes into account the position of other teams on the table. The fact that there are 9 teams who have won at least 4 out of 7 games so far drags down our chances slightly.

If we were to win this weekend, our chances of making the finals would jump to about 82%. But if we were to lose, our chances of making the finals would fall to maybe 66%.

 

[Juro]

After three wins comes a loss, and the curve turns. Is this white noise or a new trend?

We are now at 68% chance of making the top 8 are 74%, our second best after 2000, where we were 72% after 8 rounds (4 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses).


Key results:
- 9% chance of minor premiership (Bulldogs are 22%, Sea Eagles are 21% and Titans are 17%)
- 37% chance of finishing in top 4
- 68% chance of finishing in top 8
- 1% chance of wooden spoon (Sharks are 22%, Knights are 20%)

We have been over 70% chance of making the finals in 8 previous seasons (2000, 2002, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012), but only managed to make it on 3 occasions. We are ahead of where we were in those 3 seasons, but that means very little.

Of the teams above us, it is interesting to note that:
- The Bulldogs have played no games against top 4 teams, and only 2 games against top 8 teams.
- The Sea Eagles have played 1 game against top 4 team (losing to us) and 3 games against top 8 teams. Also, the Sea Eagles have played 6 of their 8 games at home.
- The Titans have played 2 games against top 4 teams (us twice, 1 win, 1 loss) and 3 games against top 8 teams.
- We have played 3 games against top 4 teams (2 wins, 1 loss) and 4 games against top 8 teams (3 wins, 1 loss).

 

[coolcat]

Please lee up the good work. I love reading this stuff

_Posted using RoarFEED V.4_

 

[Juro]

Another loss, and the curve dips faster. We are now at 56% chance of making the top 8, our 4th best after 2000, 2002 and 2007.


Key results:
- 5% chance of minor premiership (Bulldogs are 22%, Sea Eagles are 15% and Titans are 10%)
- 26% chance of finishing in top 4
- 56% chance of finishing in top 8
- 2% chance of wooden spoon (Sharks are 28%, Knights are 26%)

Here's hoping that with troops coming back into the team over the next few weeks, we can get some wins and get these numbers moving in the right direction!

 

[diedpretty]

it looks likes it's mirroring 2010/11, let's hope it continues that way but with a slightly different ending given braith is now on our team :wink:

Certainly mirroring 2010 at this stage.

 

[Juro]

A win, even an unconvincing win, turns the curve in the right direction. We are now at 64% chance of making the top 8, our 2nd best after 2000 (86%) and 2007 (67%).


Key results:
- 6% chance of minor premiership (Bulldogs are 38%, Sea Eagles are 17% and the Sharks are the first team this year to reach 0%)
- 31% chance of finishing in top 4
- 64% chance of finishing in top 8
- 0.8% chance of wooden spoon (Sharks are 31%, Knights are 29%, Raiders are 17%)

By this time last year, we had reached 0% chance of winning the minor premiership.

 

[Juro]

The curve is zigzaging at the moment - loss, win, loss. Even though we are sitting outside the top 8, we are still on the right side of 50% for making the finals. We are now at 54% chance of making the top 8, our 5th best after 2000 (81%), 2007 (75%), 2008 (66%) and 2011 (56%).


Key results:
- 4% chance of minor premiership (Bulldogs are 29%, Sea Eagles are 20%)
- 23% chance of finishing in top 4
- 54% chance of finishing in top 8
- 1% chance of wooden spoon (Sharks are 42%, Knights are 29%)

I don't know about you, but I would much rather have the bye the week before Origin than after. At least that way, we could have had Woods and Farah backing up…

 

[Juro]

Despite the bye, the curve continues to evolve, thanks to other teams' results. Due to other teams around us having wins, our chances of making the top 8 have dipped slightly, down to 53%. This is our 7th best after 2000 (74%), 2004 (66%), 2007 (64%), 2008 (57%), 2010 (69%) and 2012 (58%).


Key results:
- 4% chance of minor premiership (Bulldogs are 29%, Panthers and Sea Eagles are 12%. Knights join the Sharks on 0%)
- 21% chance of finishing in top 4
- 53% chance of finishing in top 8
- 0.9% chance of wooden spoon (Sharks are 37%, Knights are 34%. Bulldogs are the first team to get to 0%)

With the Sharks and Knights struggling to win any games, it is becoming more and more likely that 12 wins will not be enough to make the top 8.

 

[innsaneink]

A better than 50/50 top 8 chance, halfway thru the season I'll take that thank you very much, especially after last year (this time 2013 last on ladder)

I think we'd all have grabbed it with both hands if offered before the season kicked off

 

[coolcat]

All I wanted was to be competitive this year. Slightly better the 50/50 half way through the year I'm happy with. We are in a building faze.

_Posted using RoarFEED V.4_

 

[Juro]

Here we are, halfway through the season. 13 rounds out of 26\. 12 games out of 24\. And we're on the right side of 50% for making the top 50%. Our chances of making the top 8 are 62%. This is our 6th best after 2000 (84%), 2007 (76%), 2008 (68%), 2010 (78%) and 2012 (75%).


Key results:
- 5% chance of minor premiership (Panthers and Bulldogs are 18%, Sea Eagles are 17%)
- 28% chance of finishing in top 4
- 62% chance of finishing in top 8
- 0.3% chance of wooden spoon (Sharks are 47%, Knights are 38%)

With half the season gone, we have already won as many games as we did in the entirety of 2013\. We have scored 59% of the total tries scored last year, 81% of the goals and 150% of the field goals. We have conceded only 38% of last year's total points.

 

[TurnStyle]

Thanks very much Juro!

 

[Juro]

Glad you like it. I do this for myself, but am doubly happy if others enjoy it too.

PS It is amazing how tight the ladder is half way through the season? 2 points separates 1st and 8th, with 3 teams on 18 points and 5 teams on 16.

Compare that to previous seasons:
2013: 8 point gap (1st: 22; 8th: 14)
2012: 10 point gap (1st: 24; 8th: 14)
2011: 9 point gap (1st: 23; 8th: 14)
2010: 6 point gap (1st: 20; 8th: 14)
**2009: 2 point gap (1st: 18; 8th: 16)
2008: 2 point gap (1st: 18; 8th: 16)**
2007: 8 point gap (1st: 22; 8th: 14)
2006: 4 point gap (1st: 20; 8th: 16)
2005: 8 point gap (1st: 22; 8th: 14)
2004: 6 point gap (1st: 20; 8th: 14)
2003: 8 point gap (1st: 22; 8th: 14)
2002: 11 point gap (1st: 23; 8th: 12)
2001: 9 point gap (1st: 21; 8th: 12)
2000: 8 point gap (1st: 20; 8th: 12)

Having so many teams equal near the top, plus a few stragglers at the bottom (Sharks, Knights, Raiders) is pointing to teams needing more than 12 wins to make the finals.

There have been 2 seasons with a similar ladder to 2014 in recent history, 2008 and 2009.

In 2008, 30 points was needed to come 8th. The Knights finished 9th on 28 points with +35 F/A.

In 2009, 29 points were needed. We finished on 28 with +75 F/A but it was not enough.

 

[Juro]

Just letting you know that the J Curve will be having a forced sabbatical for a while. Unfortunately, my laptop hard drive died, and I didn't have any back-up of the spreadsheet. I'm trying to recreate it at the moment, but it may take a while…

 

[Russell]

Just letting you know that the J Curve will be having a forced sabbatical for a while. Unfortunately, my laptop hard drive died, and I didn't have any back-up of the spreadsheet. I'm trying to recreate it at the moment, but it may take a while…

Good on ya, Champion - love your work.

It really does put it all in perspective.

Hope we win 7 more games in the second half.
Also hope all your IT problems get sorted out.

 

[tom620]

That sucks.. Sorry to hear about that.

Unfortunately we can probably guess which way the curve was going to go..

 

[hobbo]

Just letting you know that the J Curve will be having a forced sabbatical for a while. Unfortunately, my laptop hard drive died, and I didn't have any back-up of the spreadsheet. I'm trying to recreate it at the moment, but it may take a while…

That's bad news mate .. Love ya work !
I hope it wasn't the stats & percentages from the last game that killed your hard drive ???

_Posted using RoarFEED V.4_

 

[coolcat]

Just letting you know that the J Curve will be having a forced sabbatical for a while. Unfortunately, my laptop hard drive died, and I didn't have any back-up of the spreadsheet. I'm trying to recreate it at the moment, but it may take a while…

this is one this I do look forward to every week. Have been following it for a couple of seasons.

Let us know if you need any help.

hope a quick return

Cheers

 

[Juro]

Quick update for you. I've rebuilt the macro, and it seems to be giving fairly consistent answers. Of course, being a stochastic model, there will be random variations each time you run it. Now I'm going back and recalculating each season, 2000-14\. Hopefully I will have at least something to show in a couple of days.