The J(uro) Curve

[colmcd]

Here we go again, folks. Another year of the curve. Taylor obviously had no idea how to drive the thing. Can Cleary get it moving in the right direction???


Key results:
- 0.7% chance of minor premiership (Storm are 25%, Dragons are 14%)
- 7% chance of finishing in top 4 (Storm are 62%, Dragons are 47%)
- 23% chance of finishing in top 8 (Storm are 86%, Dragons are 75%)
- 50% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Storm are 3%, Dragons are 8%)
- 17% chance of wooden spoon (Storm are 0.4%, Dragons are 0.9%)

At 23% chance of making the finals, this is our worst start to the season (5 rounds) out of all our 18 years. The previous worst was 26% in 2012, where we also started with a 1-4 record, but only had a -42 F/A record and were sitting 3rd last.

I was expecting a danger drop week 10\. Looking at two of those years, the drop came week 8\. 2015 it came week 10.

hmm, this looks like an old graph, but I think we need to Rotate Sue and Grant in now to keep our forwards fresh.

 

[Juro]

Does this graph appear for people? Trying twitter this time…


 

[Geo]

All good for me… :smiley:

 

[Sco77y]

Looks good. There's a bit of a pattern yeah? What the hell happens at the back end of our seasons? Hopefully we can stay above the average line this year.

 

[Juro]

Great! I'll go back and edit my posts from the last week.

 

[mike]

Yep I can see that one

 

[Juro]

Okay. Posts updated for the 2017 summary and 2018 results. Let me know if you aren't receiving the graphs still…

 

[Tarl]

Looking good now Juro!

 

[old_man_tiger]

Juro with all the effort you put in every year you deserve your membership curse to be smashed this year. Top 8, 100% round 19.

 

[Russell]

All good for me Juro - thanks for the time and effort - appreciate all your work.

 

[Chicken_Faced_Killa]

Great work Juro! Hopefully the graph keeps going up this season and we can maintain this momentum, the next 4 weeks will show us where we really are. There was so much focus on the challenge of the first 5 weeks hopefully we don’t see a drop off in intensity.

 

[Donald_Trump]

Juro - you need to get a job

 

[Juro]

Great work Juro! Hopefully the graph keeps going up this season and we can maintain this momentum, the next 4 weeks will show us where we really are. There was so much focus on the challenge of the first 5 weeks hopefully we don’t see a drop off in intensity.

Very true comment, this. We are over this massive hurdle. Please let us not fall flat on our faces now!

Thanks for all the kind words of support. I enjoy doing this, and the joy is doubled when I know others appreciate it too.

 

[Juro]

What a sweet win that was. Eight losses in a row at Brookvale (now to be referred to as Brooks-vale), then we win 38-12, the exact same score we won by in 2003.

And the curve has reached a new high for this stage of the season. We're sitting at 81%, fractionally in front of where we were all the way back in 2000 at this stage, and miles ahead of where we were last year. Eagle eyed viewers will spot that the y-axis has had to shift to 90% so the curve will fit.


Key results after 6 rounds:
- 15% chance of minor premiership (Dragons are 32%, Panthers are 16%, Eels are 0.03%)
- 52% chance of finishing in top 4 (Dragons are 73%, Panthers are 55%, Eels are 1%)
- 81% chance of finishing in top 8 (Dragons are 92%, Panthers are 82%, Eels are 9%)
- 4% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Eels are 71%, Cowboys are 54%, Dragons are 1%)
- 0.4% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 33%, Cowboys are 16%, Dragons are 0.1%)

I have checked through the history of teams being 81% or better chance of making the finals after 6 rounds. The only instances where they failed to make it were:
- 2017: Dragons
- 2006: Cowboys
- 2000: Wests Tigers

 

[Chicken_Faced_Killa]

Great stuff Juro. Out of interest:
how many teams have been at 81% or above to make the finals after 6 rounds? I’m guessing about 55 so only 3/55 have missed out.

What’s the earliest round a team has hit 100% chance of making the finals? Round 14ish I’m guessing

 

[Juro]

Great stuff Juro. Out of interest:
how many teams have been at 81% or above to make the finals after 6 rounds? I’m guessing about 55 so only 3/55 have missed out.

In the years I've modelled (2000-17) there were 23 teams who have been at 81% or more by round 6\. Of these, there were 3 who missed out. This equates to 13%. So you could argue we are closer to 87% chance of making the finals…

What’s the earliest round a team has hit 100% chance of making the finals? Round 14ish I’m guessing

Yes, nice guess. The Storm reached 100% in Round 14 in 2007\. They were on 24 points (12-0-2), 10 points clear of 9th place.

 

[Chicken_Faced_Killa]

Thank Juro, hopefully we can push on and you have to remodel the curve this year

 

[Juro]

What point is a curve if it doesn't curve, right? That loss took a little bit of steam out of the team, but the good news is that if we zigzag through the rest of the season, we will still be heading in the right direction. 5 wins from 7 games puts us at 76% chance of making the finals, which was better than we were when we were 4 wins from 5 games (73%).


Key results after 7 rounds:
- 11% chance of minor premiership (Dragons are 26%, Warriors are 22%, Eels are 0.1%)
- 44% chance of finishing in top 4 (Dragons are 66%, Warriors are 62%, Eels are 2%)
- 76% chance of finishing in top 8 (Dragons are 89%, Warriors are 87%, Eels are 13%)
- 7% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Eels are 63%, Cowboys are 45%, Dragons are 2%)
- 1% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 24%, Cowboys are 13%, Dragons are 0.1%)

I have checked through the history of teams being 76% or better chance of making the finals after 6 rounds. Out of the 47 instances there were only 3 teams (6%) who failed to make it:
- 2017: Dragons
- 2008: Titans
- 2006: Cowboys

And yes, this is still our best start to the season. Our previous best Round 7 chances were:
- 2000: 75%
- 2014: 74%
- 2002: 71%

We failed to make the finals in each of those years. The team needs to stay focused and get across the line!

 

[Chicken_Faced_Killa]

Interesting that in our best 3 season starts we have failed to make the finals. Hopefully we can buck the trend this year and maintain consistency throughout the year.

A few teams who are struggling at the moment have the potential to go on a run and get a heap of momentum so we need to keep winning to stay ahead of them.

 

[Sco77y]

Interesting that in our best 3 season starts we have failed to make the finals. Hopefully we can buck the trend this year and maintain consistency throughout the year.

A few teams who are struggling at the moment have the potential to go on a run and get a heap of momentum so we need to keep winning to stay ahead of them.

Like the Eels. We really need to refocus and knock this next game out. Could be another danger game for us, they’ll be high on confidence and probably won’t let us get away with what we did last time in letting them back into the game late.