The J(uro) Curve

[Chicken_Faced_Killa]

Interesting that in our best 3 season starts we have failed to make the finals. Hopefully we can buck the trend this year and maintain consistency throughout the year.

A few teams who are struggling at the moment have the potential to go on a run and get a heap of momentum so we need to keep winning to stay ahead of them.

Like the Eels. We really need to refocus and knock this next game out. Could be another danger game for us, they’ll be high on confidence and probably won’t let us get away with what we did last time in letting them back into the game late.

Yep Eels, Cowboys sand Raiders all have dangerous squads that could cause trouble to a lot of teams once they get going. I think our squad has played well so far but has probably over achieved a little and need to focus and dig in every week. Starting with the eels this week to keep the curve going upwards.

 

[Juro]

Well, that was disappointing… After an amazing first 6 weeks, 2 losses in a row have taken a fair bit of steam out of the season. But while we may be kicking ourselves, we're still not in too bad a position. In fact, this is still the second best start to the season we've ever had!

Sitting at 70% chance of making the finals, we are only behind where we were in 2000, when we were at 73%. Our next best start was in 2014, when we were sitting at 67%.


Key numbers after 8 rounds:
- 7% chance of minor premiership (Dragons are 34%, Panthers are 16%, Eels are 0.2%)
- 36% chance of finishing in top 4 (Dragons are 75%, Panthers are 55%, Eels are 3%)
- 70% chance of finishing in top 8 (Dragons are 94%, Panthers are 84%, Eels are 16%)
- 9% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Eels are 55%, Cowboys are 54%, Dragons are 1%)
- 1% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 18%, Cowboys are 17%, Dragons are 0.04%)

 

[Juro]

Please return to your seats and ensure your tray tables are in an upright position. Our season is experiencing difficulties.


As the curve shows, unfortunately this difficulty is all to frequent for us. In our 19 seasons including this year, we have only managed to win 43.4% of all our regular season matches. However, our season has a typical shape to it. We:
1\. start out well for the first couple rounds,
2\. then fall away until round 10,
3\. then fight back a bit in rounds 11 to 14,
4\. then collapse 15 to 18,
5\. then have a surge from rounds 19 to 23,
6\. and finally collapse in a sobbing heap at the end.

The following graph shows our win percentage for all seasons to date, showing the above story.


Of course, there is the odd season that bucks the trend. We can always hope that this season will be different…

Key numbers after 9 rounds:
- 4% chance of minor premiership (Dragons are 44%, Warriors are 18%, Eels are 0.1%)
- 26% chance of finishing in top 4 (Dragons are 84%, Warriors are 61%, Eels are 2%)
- 61% chance of finishing in top 8 (Dragons are 97%, Warriors are 88%, Eels are 11%)
- 12% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Eels are 64%, Bulldogs are 61%, Dragons are 0.3%)
- 1% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 23%, Bulldogs are 21% and the Dragons have already reached 0.00%)

 

[Juro]

We certainly needed that win, but the curve has not turned up as much as I had expected. We are now on 68%, which is lower than we were 2 weeks ago (70%). The trouble is that all the other teams around us also won, meaning we are still in that tight pack fighting for a spot. Another win on Thursday night would be massive for us.

Sitting at 68% chance of making the finals, we are only behind where we were in 2000, when we were at 87%. Our next best start was in 2007, when we were sitting at 66%.


Key numbers after 10 rounds:
- 6% chance of minor premiership (Dragons are 35%, Panthers are 15%, Eels are 0.1%)
- 32% chance of finishing in top 4 (Dragons are 76%, Panthers are 55%, Eels are 1%)
- 68% chance of finishing in top 8 (Dragons are 95%, Panthers are 85%, Eels are 6%)
- 8% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Eels are 72%, Titans are 58%, Dragons are 1%)
- 1% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 29%, Titans are 17%, Dragons are 0%)

 

[Geo]

Can't wait till the J curve is 100% chance of the Top 8…

Oh and the Dragons to slide to 0%..

 

[barra]

More of a chance to win the minor premiership than the spoon?
That's a welcome change!

 

[Juro]

Well, we are still in the top 8, and our chances are still above 50%, but that is assuming we have a 50% chance of winning every game…


Key numbers after 11 rounds:
- 2% chance of minor premiership (Dragons are 40%, Panthers are 19%, Eels are the first team to reach 0.00%)
- 22% chance of finishing in top 4 (Dragons are 83%, Panthers are 64%, Eels are 0.2%)
- 60% chance of finishing in top 8 (Dragons are 97%, Panthers are 91%, Eels are 3%)
- 11% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Eels are 79%, Cowboys are 62%, Dragons are 0.1%)
- 1% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 36%, Cowboys are 18%, Panthers join the Dragons on 0%)

 

[Tigerdave]

so, if we had beaten the Knights and Eels we'd be at 91% chance for a top 8 spot? bugger

Here's hoping we can start edging a bit closer this weekend with a win.

 

[ryanda01]

Well, we are still in the top 8, and our chances are still above 50%, but that is assuming we have a 50% chance of winning every game…


Key numbers after 11 rounds:
- 2% chance of minor premiership (Dragons are 40%, Panthers are 19%, Eels are the first team to reach 0.00%)
- 22% chance of finishing in top 4 (Dragons are 83%, Panthers are 64%, Eels are 0.2%)
- 60% chance of finishing in top 8 (Dragons are 97%, Panthers are 91%, Eels are 3%)
- 11% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Eels are 79%, Cowboys are 62%, Dragons are 0.1%)
- 1% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 36%, Cowboys are 18%, Panthers join the Dragons on 0%)

The 2018 line is eerily close to the 2014 trajectory. Let’s hope this week is where it changes…

 

[Juro]

Well we've managed to kick clear of 2014 for now, and continue our run above 50%. This is only the second year where we have been above 50% for all of our first 12 rounds. The other time was in our inaugural year, where we managed to last all the way until Round 23 before succumbing.


Key numbers after 12 rounds:
- 3% chance of minor premiership (Panthers and Dragons are 27%, Bulldogs and Cowboys join the Eels on 0.00%)
- 25% chance of finishing in top 4 (Panthers and Dragons are 72%, Eels are 0.04%)
- 68% chance of finishing in top 8 (Panthers and Dragons are 95%, Eels are 1%)
- 5% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Eels are 85%, Cowboys are 69%, Dragons are 0.1%)
- 0.2% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 40%, Cowboys are 19%, Warriors are the 3rd team to reach 0.00%)

 

[Tim Sheens]

Well we've managed to kick clear of 2014 for now, and continue our run above 50%. This is only the second year where we have been above 50% for all of our first 12 rounds. The other time was in our inaugural year, where we managed to last all the way until Round 23 before succumbing.


Key numbers after 12 rounds:
- 3% chance of minor premiership (Panthers and Dragons are 27%, Bulldogs and Cowboys join the Eels on 0.00%)
- 25% chance of finishing in top 4 (Panthers and Dragons are 72%, Eels are 0.04%)
- 68% chance of finishing in top 8 (Panthers and Dragons are 95%, Eels are 1%)
- 5% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Eels are 85%, Cowboys are 69%, Dragons are 0.1%)
- 0.2% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 40%, Cowboys are 19%, Warriors are the 3rd team to reach 0.00%)

Thanks, onwards and upwards.

 

[yeti]

Thanks for this Juro. I find it quite interesting (yeah I know, I need to get out more)!

 

[Chicken_Faced_Killa]

Another win this week will really help to put the curve in a great position.

How do the byes impact on the curve? Are they taken into consideration?

 

[Tweed_Tiger]

When was the last time we have been in the top 8 from round 1 to now.

If we win this weekend we will have been in the top 8 for the first half of the season. Is this a first since the joint venture?

 

[Juro]

Another win this week will really help to put the curve in a great position.

How do the byes impact on the curve? Are they taken into consideration?

Byes don't have a direct impact on the results. I forecast individual games to the end of the season, where every team will have played its 24 games. During a bye week, some teams go up or down a bit, just because of the other games that are played.

 

[Juro]

When was the last time we have been in the top 8 from round 1 to now.

If we win this weekend we will have been in the top 8 for the first half of the season. Is this a first since the joint venture?

In 2000, we stayed in the top 8 all the way up to Round 19\. In Round 12, we were sitting in 3rd place, with 6 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses. That put us on 14 points, equal to where we are now.

I consider now the half time for 2018, since everyone has played 12 out of 24 games. Remember, there are only 25 rounds this year, too…

 

[Chicken_Faced_Killa]

Another win this week will really help to put the curve in a great position.

How do the byes impact on the curve? Are they taken into consideration?

Byes don't have a direct impact on the results. I forecast individual games to the end of the season, where every team will have played its 24 games. During a bye week, some teams go up or down a bit, just because of the other games that are played.

Cheers thanks for the info.

 

[Tweed_Tiger]

When was the last time we have been in the top 8 from round 1 to now.

If we win this weekend we will have been in the top 8 for the first half of the season. Is this a first since the joint venture?

In 2000, we stayed in the top 8 all the way up to Round 19\. In Round 12, we were sitting in 3rd place, with 6 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses. That put us on 14 points, equal to where we are now.

I consider now the half time for 2018, since everyone has played 12 out of 24 games. Remember, there are only 25 rounds this year, too…

Thanks :slight_smile:

 

[Juro]

Well that game hurt. Yet another close loss, and the zigzag pattern continues. While we have fallen out of the top 8, our chances of making the finals are still above 50%. We are now sitting at 59%.


Key numbers after 13 rounds:
- 2% chance of minor premiership (Panthers and Dragons are 26%, 3 teams on 0.00%)
- 17% chance of finishing in top 4 (Panthers and Dragons are 72%, Eels are the first team to reach 0.00%)
- 59% chance of finishing in top 8 (Panthers and Dragons are 95%, Eels are 0.4%)
- 7% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Eels are 92%, Bulldogs are 68%, Dragons are 0.2%)
- 0.2% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 52%, Bulldogs are 16%, 3 teams are on 0.00%)

 

[steve-o]

The similarity to 2014 is crazy. That season was derailed by the Farah/Tallis feud. Hopefully the similarity stops now.