The J(uro) Curve

[Tiger Tarl]

It all comes down to this weekend.

If we beat the dogs and push our for-and-against further in the right direction and if the Sharks beat the Panthers (pushing their for-and-against further into the negative), then a gap starts to open up. If the Cowboys can get the win over the Broncos, that would be even better... but I won't cross fingers, instead, I'll believe in this team!

Unless we lose to the Dogs, then I'll break. 😉

 

[OzLuke]

It all comes down to this weekend.

If we beat the dogs and push our for-and-against further in the right direction and if the Sharks beat the Panthers (pushing their for-and-against further into the negative), then a gap starts to open up. If the Cowboys can get the win over the Broncos, that would be even better... but I won't cross fingers, instead, I'll believe in this team!

Unless we lose to the Dogs, then I'll break. 😉

as long as we win then we'll have no problems....

 

[Juro]

How are we places compared to all previous seasons, at this point in the season, excluding years where we made the finals?

I don't have my model in front of me, but from memory this is about our 6th best season as of Round 20. Of the 3 seasons we made the finals, we were well entrenched in the top 8 by this stage. So there have been at least a couple other seasons where we were in the hunt but fell over.

 

[Juro]

How are we places compared to all previous seasons, at this point in the season, excluding years where we made the finals?

I don't have my model in front of me, but from memory this is about our 6th best season as of Round 20. Of the 3 seasons we made the finals, we were well entrenched in the top 8 by this stage. So there have been at least a couple other seasons where we were in the hunt but fell over.

Okay, here is the graph.

And the chances as at Round 20 for the years were:
* 2000: 52%
* 2005: 71%
* 2007: 79%
* 2010: 91%
* 2011: 67%

So I guess this shows that there is still a long way to go...

 

[Curly_Tiger]

@Juro that 2000 fade out in season 1 still hurts. I remember the Panthers game late in the season we were up by 30 odd to not much and I said we'll win the comp the way we're playing. Second half collapse, we lost and pretty much that was the slide out of the eight begun there and then. Looking at that cerise line looks like we lost 8 out of our last 10. Oh the humanity!
Let's hope for better in the remaining 5 this year

 

[Juro]

@Juro that 2000 fade out in season 1 still hurts. I remember the Panthers game late in the season we were up by 30 odd to not much and I said we'll win the comp the way we're playing. Second half collapse, we lost and pretty much that was the slide out of the eight begun there and then. Looking at that cerise line looks like we lost 8 out of our last 10. Oh the humanity!
Let's hope for better in the remaining 5 this year

I was helping my girlfriend move that day. Listening on the radio, we were on fire. I called up my mum to make sure she taped the game (the old Sunday afternoon delayed coverage). Pretty much as soon as I got off the phone, the collapse started. I never bothered to watch what happened...

The 2000 season all turned the week before, though. We had been 91%, sitting in 2nd place on the ladder. Then the snow started falling in Canberra. We lost 24-22.

 

[notarealtiger]

I feel like this is going to come down to our last game against the Sharks in Round 26. Eerily familiar to 2016...

 

[Russell]

I feel like this is going to come down to our last game against the Sharks in Round 26. Eerily familiar to 2016...

Hope not.

 

[Juro]

And just like that, things return to normal...

While Saturday's loss hurt us badly though, we still have a reasonable chance. We have dropped down to 29%. We need to have some luck go our way though.


Key numbers after 21 rounds:

* 0.00% chance of minor premiership (-)
– Storm are 98% (+5%)
– Roosters are 2% (-1%)
– Raiders are 0.3% (-2%)
– Rabbitohs are 0.02% (-2%)
– Sea Eagles join the rest on 0.00% (-0.1%)

* 0.00% chance of finishing in top 4 (-0.1%)
– Storm are 100.00% (-)
– Roosters are 97% (+10%)
– Raiders are 81% (-3%)
– Rabbitohs are 69% (-6%)
– Sea Eagles are 31% (-12%)
– Eels are 22% (+11%)
– Broncos are 0.22% (+0.1%)
– Panthers are 0.1% (+0.1%)
– Sharks are 0.03% (-0.5%)
– Knights and we join the rest on 0.00%

* 29% chance of finishing in top 8 (-16%)
– Top 4 are on 100.00%
– Sea Eagles are 99.6% (-0.1%)
– Eels are 99% (+5%)
– Panthers are 60% (+20%)
– Broncos are 48% (+17%)
– Sharks are 36% (-17%)
– Knights are 10% (-14%)
– Warriors are 17% (+8%)
– Dragons are 0.6% (+0.4%)
– Cowboys are 0.5% (-3%)
– Bulldogs are 0.1% (-)

* 11% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (+5%)
– Titans are the first to reach 100.00% (+0.3%)
– Bulldogs are 83% (-4%)
– Dragons are 75% (-9%)
– Cowboys are 74% (+21%)
– Knights are 27% (+12%)
– Warriors are 18% (15%)
– Sharks are 6% (+3%)
– Broncos are 4% (-8%)
– Panthers are 3% (-5%)

* 0.00% chance of wooden spoon
– Titans are 93% (+17%)
– Bulldogs are 3% (-9%)
– Dragons are 2% (-8%)
– Cowboys are 1% (-)
– Warriors are 0.4% (-)
– Broncos are 0.03% (+0.02%)
– Knights are 0.02% (-0.01%)
– Broncos and Warriors join the others on 0.00%

With 4 rounds to go, we still have 6 teams vying for 2 spots. We are now 4th in the group so can't afford to slip. We used one life against the Bulldogs. We may be lucky and get another but that's about it...

 

[happy_tiger]

I hope you didn't tell the Curve about Robbie and Moses

I'd like someone to still give us a hope in hell

 

[Curly_Tiger]

Manly 99.6% likely to make the 8. If we beat them they finish with Raiders (A), Storm (H) and Eels (A), they could miss
Gotta check if there's a market for them missing the 8 and if there is I'm getting on. Manifesting my own reality
I live at DY/Curly so it's a big one for me Thursday night as we go for 5 in a row against the Eagles

 

[Juro]

@happy_tiger No form or injuries or home ground advantage or toughness of competition is taken into account. Every game is assumed to be a toss of the coin. You can then adjust my numbers based on these.

To me, the final number is nice to look at, but all it really tells us is that we are still in the fight (even if we are likely to be lying on the canvas in a few weeks).

 

[Juro]

Another body blow, but we are still in with a small chance. Down to 13%...


Key numbers after 22 rounds:

* 0.00% chance of minor premiership (-)
– Storm are 92% (-5%)
– Roosters are 7% (+5%)
– Raiders are 0.1% (-0.2%)
– Rabbitohs join the rest on 0.00% (-0.02%)

* 0.00% chance of finishing in top 4 (-)
– Storm are 100.00% (-)
– Roosters are 99.8% (+3%)
– Raiders are 89% (+8%)
– Sea Eagles are 47% (+16%)
– Rabbitohs are 34% (-34%)
– Eels are 29% (+8%)
– Broncos, Panthers and Sharks join the rest on 0.00%

* 13% chance of finishing in top 8 (-16%)
– Top 4 are on 100.00%
– Sea Eagles join the teams on 100.00% (+0.4%)
– Eels are 99.98% (+1%)
– Broncos are 71% (+23%)
– Sharks are 52% (+16%)
– Panthers are 39% (-22%)
– Knights are 20% (+10%)
– Warriors are 5% (-12%)
– Bulldogs are 0.1% (-)
– Dragons and Cowboys join the rest on 0.00%

* 15% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (+4%)
– Titans are 100.00% (-)
– Cowboys are 90% (+15%)
– Dragons are 86% (+11%)
– Bulldogs are 67% (-17%)
– Warriors are 32% (+14%)
– Knights are 8% (-18%)
– Panthers are 3% (-)
– Sharks are 1% (-5%)
– Broncos are 0.1% (-3%)

* 0.00% chance of wooden spoon (-)
– Titans are 99% (+5%)
– Dragons are 0.7% (-1%)
– Cowboys are 1% (-)
– Bulldogs and Knights join the others on 0.00%

If we managed to win our last 3 games, we have an 80% chance of making the finals. If we win 2 out of 3, we still have a 6% chance. Otherwise, we are done...

 

[TheDaBoss]

which results would be nice if they went our way this round? apart from our game which we r winning

 

[Curly_Tiger]

which results would be nice if they went our way this round? apart from our game which we r winning

Three games matter
Cowboys $2.10 at home v Panthers - Cows are possible
Rabbits $1.80 away v Broncs - hopefully the Rabbits
Sharks $1.40 at home v Warriors - unlikely Sharks lose

 

[Juro]

The main competition for the final spots are the Broncos, Sharks, Panthers and Knights. The more games they all lose, the better our chances...

This week:
* Broncos play the Rabbitohs
* Sharks play the Warriors
* Panthers play the Cowboys
* Knights play us

So the game against the Knights will likely end the season for the loser. Sharks and Panthers will probably start favourites, while I'm hoping the Rabbitohs do us a favour for once.

 

[Matto]

@Juro all 4 of those teams could easily get it handed to them! I mean, Rabbitohs will be wanting to make a run back into the top 4, we will be wanting to play finals, so will Warriors. Fingers crossed & Pray!

 

[Juro]

We keep our season alive for another week, edging back towards our club history average. With the Panthers and Broncos losing, our chances are looking a lot better, but there is still so much still to do.


Key numbers after 23 rounds:

* 0.00% chance of minor premiership (-)
– Storm are 95% (+3%)
– Roosters are 5% (-2%)
– Raiders join the rest on 0.00% (-0.1%)

* 0.00% chance of finishing in top 4 (-)
– Roosters are the second team to reach 100% (+0.2%)
– Raiders are 80% (-10%)
– Sea Eagles are 63% (+15%)
– Rabbitohs are 47% (+13%)
– Eels are 11% (-19%)

* 31% chance of finishing in top 8 (+18%)
– Eels are the 6th team to reach 100% (+0.02%)
– Sharks are 84% (+32%)
– Broncos are 60% (-11%)
– Panthers are 19% (-20%)
– Knights are 5% (-14%)
– Bulldogs are 0.4% (+0.3)
– Warriors are 0.03% (-5%)

* 1% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (-14%)
– Titans are 100.00% (-)
– Dragons are 99% (+14%)
– Cowboys are 75% (-14%)
– Warriors are 60% (+29%)
– Bulldogs are 42% (-24%)
– Knights are 19% (+11%)
– Panthers are 3% (-)
– Broncos are 0.1% (-)
– Sharks are the 7th team to reach 0.00% (-1%)

* 0.00% chance of wooden spoon (-)
– Titans are 100% (+1%)

If we managed to win our last 2 games, we have an 89% chance of making the finals. If we win 1 out of 2, we still have a 16% chance. In other words, just keep winning and hope other results fall our way again.

 

[Curly_Tiger]

@Juro History in the making, but let’s take it one game at a time, Dragons next

 

[Tiger_Steve]

@Juro History in the making, but let’s take it one game at a time, Dragons next

Really we need to think one set at a time. Maybe one play at a time.