The J(uro) Curve

[Juro]

One week up, one week down (and a little bit further down than we went up) is so often the story of our seasons, before either imploding (usually) or soaring upwards (very rarely).

The loss, and heavy damage to our F/A saw our chances dip to 48%. We are still slightly above our average from 2000-18 (46%).


Key numbers after 8 rounds:

2% chance of minor premiership (-3%)
– Roosters are 28% (+6%)
– Rabbitohs are 26% (+6%)
– Storm are 13% (-9%)
– The bunch coming last (Bulldogs through to Warriors) are all about 0.1% - 0.2% (-0.4%)

16% chance of finishing in top 4 (-9%) (Roosters are 73%, Rabbitohs are 70%, Storm are 53%, Bulldogs are 2%)

48% chance of finishing in top 8 (-11%) (Roosters are 94%, Rabbitohs are 93%, Storm are 84%, Bulldogs are 16%)

19% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (+4%) (Bulldogs are 56%, Panthers are 52%, Roosters are 1%)

3% chance of wooden spoon (+1%)
– Bulldogs are 17% (+3%)
– Panthers are 16% (+3%)
– Broncos are 15% (+4%)
– Titans are 15% (+2%)
– Warriors are 14% (+3%)
– Rabbitohs are 0.01% (-0.2%)

 

[Juro]

The mid-season zig zag continues, and we had a good zig on Friday night. Not only a win but a healthy boost to the F/A. Throw in a few other big wins and losses to other teams and we are somehow in 6th place on the ladder. After seeing what the Storm did to the Eels last week, I am fearing a big zag for Round 10 though...

But as of Round 9, we are sitting at 59% chance of making the finals. This puts us at our third most likely chance in our 20 seasons, behind only 2000 (80%) and 2018 (61%). The average chance at this stage is 44% and falling.


Key numbers after 9 rounds:

* list item3% chance of minor premiership (+1%)
– Roosters are 31% (+2%)
– Rabbitohs are 31% (+6%)
– Storm are 19% (+5%)
– Bulldogs, Panthers and Titans are all about 0.02%

* 22% chance of finishing in top 4 (+6%) (Roosters and Rabbitohs are 79%, Storm are 66%, Bulldogs are 1%)

* 59% chance of finishing in top 8 (+12%) (Roosters and Rabbitohs are 96%, Storm are 92%, Bulldogs are 11%)

* 12% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (-7%) (Bulldogs are 63%, Panthers are 62%, Titans are 60%, Roosters are 0.4%)

* 1% chance of wooden spoon (-2%)
– Bulldogs are 22% (+5%)
– Panthers are 21% (+5%)
– Titans are 19% (+4%)
– Cowboys are 10% (+3%)
– Warriors are 14% (+3%)
– Roosters are the first team to reach 0.00% (-0.1%)

 

[Jock Koss]

Brilliant work mate; do not fear the zag!

 

[Tim Sheens]

@Juro thanks and good to be on the rise again.

 

[Juro]

The mid-season zig zag continues, and it was time for the zag. Given the close margin and other results, we did not drop as far as the previous rise, and are now sitting at 52%. This puts us at our 6th most likely chance in our 20 seasons and 10% above average chance (42%).


Key numbers after 10 rounds:

* 1% chance of minor premiership (-2%)
– Rabbitohs are 39% (+6%)
– Storm are 24% (+5%)
– Roosters are 23% (-8%)
– Panthers and Titans are about 0.01%


* 17% chance of finishing in top 4 (-6%) (Rabbitohs are 86%, Storm are 74%, Roosters are 74%, Panthers are 0.4%)

* 52% chance of finishing in top 8 (-7%) (Rabbitohs are 98%, Storm are 95%, Roosters are 95%, Panthers are 6%)

* 15% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (+3%) (Panthers are 73%, Titans are 69%, Bulldogs are 55%, Rabbitohs are 0.1%)

* 2% chance of wooden spoon (-%)
– Panthers are 30% (+9%)
– Titans are 26% (+7%)
– Bulldogs are 15% (-7%)
– Dragons are 6% (+3%)
– Rabbitohs join the Roosters on 0.00%

 

[Juro]

FYI, we would have been up to 69% chance of making the finals if we had held on to our 2 point lead on Thursday night...

 

[Geo]

If maybe's and butts..

just win..

 

[Spartan117]

Love the J Curve thread.

However it doest show how improved we are as a club.

Im hoping for semis in 2019 but im hanging for 2020 under madge.

 

[TheDaBoss]

Love the J Curve thread.

However it doest show how improved we are as a club.

Im hoping for semis in 2019 but im hanging for 2020 under madge.

no point having hope..... because we WILL make the SEMIS

 

[Juro]

Oh no, we zagged when we should have zigged. For the first time this season, we have lost more games than we have won, and the curve has fallen well below 50%. We are now sitting at 42%. This puts us at our 12th most likely chance in our 20 seasons and smack-bang on our average chance.


Key numbers after 11 rounds:

* 0.4% chance of minor premiership (-2%)
– Rabbitohs are 48% (+9%)
– Storm are 31% (+7%)
– Roosters are 12% (-10%)
– Bulldogs, Panthers and Titans are about 0.01%

* 11% chance of finishing in top 4 (-6%) (Rabbitohs are 92%, Storm are 85%, Roosters are 66%, Bulldogs are 1%)

* 42% chance of finishing in top 8 (-10%) (Rabbitohs are 99%, Storm are 98%, Roosters are 93%, Bulldogs are 9%)

* 22% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (+7%) (Bulldogs are 67%, Panthers are 66%, Titans are 60%, Rabbitohs are 0.02%)

* 3% chance of wooden spoon (+1%)
– Panthers are 24% (-6%)
– Bulldogs are 23% (+8%)
– Titans are 19% (-7%)
– Dragons are 10% (+4%)
– Storm join the Rabbitohs and Roosters on 0.00%

 

[Tim Sheens]

Hmmmm, looking familiar.

 

[Sco77y]

We’ve had a tough couple of weeks facing the best teams in the comp. Luckily this doesn’t calculate any upside, because we should have a decent amount of that. And with a little luck hopefully we’ll be comfortably over 50% in the next month or so.

 

[Harvey]

Unfortunately, the curve seems to turn into a steep drop around this time every year. They say hope springs eternal, but for tigers fans it is usually around 12-15 weeks

 

[happy_tiger]

Poor old curve seems to work like a lie detector attached to Nick Politis when asked about the salary cap

 

[Juro]

Yes, as others have suggested, this is looking all too familiar. 3 losses in a row (ignoring the bye) has seen our chances halve from 59% to 30%.


I have been flat out at work, so didn't have time to post last week. With the bye, we dropped by less than 1%. All percentage changes below are the difference between Round 11 and 13.

Key numbers after 13 rounds:

* 0.1% chance of minor premiership (-0.3%)
– Storm are 49% (+18%)
– Rabbitohs are 27% (-21%)
– Roosters are 9% (-3%)
– Bulldogs are the first team to reach 0.00%

* 5% chance of finishing in top 4 (-6%) (Storm are 91%, Rabbitohs are 83%, Roosters are 55%, Bulldogs are 0.03%)

* 30% chance of finishing in top 8 (-12%) (Storm are 99%, Rabbitohs are 98%, Roosters are 89%, Bulldogs are 2%)

* 32% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (+10%) (Bulldogs are 85%, Titans are 60%, Warriors are 49%, Storm are 0.02%)

* 5% chance of wooden spoon (+2%)
– Bulldogs are 43% (+20%)
– Titans are 15% (-4%)
– Warriors are 11% (+3%)
– Panthers are 10% (-14%)
– 3 teams are on 0.00%

 

[Cultured_Bogan]


 

[Harvey]

Why is it that round 26 every year ends on zero percent, but the average shows 15. That is building false hope

 

[Juro]

Why is it that round 26 every year ends on zero percent, but the average shows 15. That is building false hope

The average is for all seasons from 2000 to 2018. The individual lines only show for 2015-19. The problem is that we haven't made the finals in what feels like a lifetime...

 

[Sco77y]


Did we pull the chutes in time?

 

[rustycage]


Did we pull the chutes in time?

Can I suggest that the Juro Curve is renamed the Juro Circle? It represents so much...

0 Points scored at times
0 chance of making finals
0 people have an ambition to want to play for us
0 Coaches retire gracefully after being with us
0 players improve after joining us
Year, after year, after year around we go.