The J(uro) Curve

[happy_tiger]

Curve won't be happy ,Curve usually on its holiday by now

Can't understand how we are a only 89 % if we win both games Juro ??

What could stop 100%

 

[beachtiger]

Curve won't be happy ,Curve usually on its holiday by now

Can't understand how we are a only 89 % if we win both games Juro ??

What could stop 100%

I’d assume results relating to Broncos winning both games and Sharks winning one only, before they lose to us of course 😁

 

[happy_tiger]

Curve won't be happy ,Curve usually on its holiday by now

Can't understand how we are a only 89 % if we win both games Juro ??

What could stop 100%


I’d assume results relating to Broncos winning both games and Sharks winning one only, before they lose to us of course ?

Yeah forgot Sharks need to lose both games

 

[Geo]

Curve won't be happy ,Curve usually on its holiday by now

Can't understand how we are a only 89 % if we win both games Juro ??

What could stop 100%


I’d assume results relating to Broncos winning both games and Sharks winning one only, before they lose to us of course ?

Correct..Happy doesn't Math

 

[happy_tiger]

Curve won't be happy ,Curve usually on its holiday by now

Can't understand how we are a only 89 % if we win both games Juro ??

What could stop 100%


I’d assume results relating to Broncos winning both games and Sharks winning one only, before they lose to us of course ?

Correct..Happy doesn't Math

Duh ..we are going to lap Johnny Cronk's Peps .......won't matter

 

[Masterton]

My body won't know how to cope with being alive in Spring. I'm normally on to NFL by now.

 

[Sabre]

There's a lot of symmetry year-to-year in those curves.
We seem to follow a similar pattern every year.

 

[OzLuke]

god how good would it be for parra to get up this week.....

We beat the dragons then things are exciting for the final week.....it would be go bulldogs

This is the game we need to win....we lose hear we're shot

 

[Moh]

Hate to say it, but such a winnable game. As is the Sharks game.

 

[Juro]

Not a lot to report this week. It should be no surprise that we are 50% chance of making the top 8. If we win, we are in. If not, we are shot.


Key numbers after 24 rounds:

* 0.00% chance of minor premiership (-)
– Storm are 100% (+5%)
– Roosters are 0% (-5%)

* 0.00% chance of finishing in top 4 (-)
– Storm and Roosters are 100%
– Raiders are 99.95% (+20%)
– Rabbitohs are 90% (+44%)
– Sea Eagles are 10% (-53%)
– Eels are 0% (-11%)

* 50% chance of finishing in top 8 (+19%)
– Sharks are 50% (-34%)
– You know the rest

* 0.00% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (-1%)
– Dragons join the Titans on 100.00% (+1%)
– Warriors are 87% (+27%)
– Bulldogs are 75% (+33%)
– Cowboys are 37% (-38%)
– Panthers are 1% (-2%)

* 0.00% chance of wooden spoon (-)
– Titans are 100% (-)

Fate is in our hands (...and the Sharks, ... and the referees). I am going to be a nervous wreck until Sunday night. Can the curve turn up???

 

[Harvey]

Something wrong with the stats. Melbourne can’t be 100% for the minor premiership and roosters 5%.

For roosters to be any chance Melbourne must be less than 100%

 

[Juro]

Something wrong with the stats. Melbourne can’t be 100% for the minor premiership and roosters 5%.

For roosters to be any chance Melbourne must be less than 100%

Oops... Forgot to change it to 0% for the Roosters...

 

[Curly_Tiger]

@Juro Congrats mate, great to see the Juro curve relevant in the final week of the season, I think we'd all have been happy with that outcome at the start of the season, now let's win this last one then it's likely Manly then Souths, both possible for us

 

[AngryEmu]

@Curly_Tiger I'd rather the curve be irrelevant weeks out from the finals. Somewhere up where Melbourne is would be nice.

 

[Curly_Tiger]

@AngryEmu 1st: walk, Later: run

 

[coolcat]

@Juro hi there and thanks for your work all year.

Just asking about broncos. They can miss out if they lose and we tie with the sharks. Does that have much of an effect?

 

[Juro]

@Juro hi there and thanks for your work all year.

Just asking about broncos. They can miss out if they lose and we tie with the sharks. Does that have much of an effect?

Thanks coolcat. My model is based on simplified assumptions. While there is a remote chance of draws in real life, I haven't modelled this. My simplified assumption is that each game has a 50/50 chance of winning and no chance of a draw. There have been 7 draws in the last decade, so the chances are about 0.4%. So if I was to include draws, the chances of a win or loss would fall to 49.8%.

Now, let's look at the possible outcomes:

* Broncos win (49.8%): We would need to win to make it (49.8%) - total chance of 24.8004%
* Broncos lose (49.8%): We would need to either win or draw to make it (50.2%) - total chance of 24.9996%
* Broncos draw (0.4%): We would need to win to make it (49.8%) - total chance of 0.1992%

Therefore, including the draw would actually worsen our chance of making it. It would fall from 50% to 49.9992%.

Of course, this is based on the overall assumption that each game is independent of each other game. As I said, my model is based on simplified assumptions...

 

[Juro]

Time to talk about the curve again. No, not the COVID Curve, the J Curve! And I wonder how many waves we will get this year...

So far, we have done our usual trick, win-lose-win-lose and the curve has bobbled about in the middle. With only 20 rounds this year, the value of each game is higher than normal, so the bobbling is a bit larger. And so with 4 wins and 3 losses, we are sitting at 62%, which is better than we have managed since Round 2 last year.


Key numbers after 7 rounds:

* 6% chance of minor premiership (+2% from last round)
– Eels are 26% (+5%)
– Panthers are 18% (+5%)
– Bulldogs are 0.1% (-0.2%)

* 29% chance of finishing in top 4 (+7%)
– Eels are 65% (+7%)
– Panthers are 58% (+10%)
– Bulldogs are 1% (-2%)

* 62% chance of finishing in top 8 (+11%)
– Eels are 90% (+5%)
– Panthers are 85% (+8%)
– Bulldogs are 9% (-6%)

* 11% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (-8%)
– Bulldogs are 67% (+10%)
– Broncos are 51% (+10%)
– Eels are 2% (-2%)

* 1% chance of wooden spoon (-2%)
– Bulldogs are 26% (+7%)
– Broncos are 15% (+3%)
– Eels are 0.1% (-0.1%)

 

[facepalmer]

Why did you do this we haven't made the finals once since you started lmao

 

[TSupps05]

I love looking at the curve always very interesting.

Cheers Juro