We Made the Finals

[bigsiro]

Nah, we haven't made anything yet. I look back at the games we should have won like the Bulldogs a few weeks ago as pivotal factors during the season. I think we've punched above our weight but the players and coach have said anything less than a finals appearance is not good enough and I agree.

That Bulldogs game seems to hang over us as fans. It felt grim that day.
But if we had beaten the Bulldogs that day, we would be sitting on 26 pts and still needing to beat the Sharks this Sunday to make the finals.
Let's hope that when we tempted fate, we only did just that.
:hand_with_index_and_middle_fingers_crossed:

 

[bigsiro]

I think the real measure isn't easily available in statistics. It's how we've looked against some of the better sides in the comp. Roosters and the Storm we gave a real shake to and I was proud of how the boys played.

We're only a few players away from a real quality side.

We beat the Roosters and Storm last year too. Meh.
There is only one real measure.
Making the finals.

 

[TCL]

@Geo is that from where the play started or where the try scorer received the ball from? :grin:

 

[BalmainJnr]

I read the thread title and initially thought Gallen must have wised up and forfeited the match to save face rather than be crushed at Leichhardt.

Saw this today, which was interesting;

 

[jirskyr]

Unfortunately compared to 2018 there's no improvement. I'm not saying I'm dissatisfied, because I recognise it's a tough ask for a team that finished 9th to do better with a brand new coach and another culture/system/roster change.

If we lose this week we finish with 1 less win than 2018. And if Knights defeat Panthers and we lose, they bump us to 10th, which is a spot worse off. 2018 we finished the final 8 rounds 5W 3L, which is exactly how we'll finish up in 2019 if we beat Sharks. So we have to beat Sharks to match 2018's performance, except that this year it gets us finals and last year it didn't.

2018 was actually a pretty decent benchmark for Tigers, 50% win rate and decent late run of wins. We missed the 8 last year due to an unconventional table, where the Top and 8th teams were only 2 points adrift. Since (and including) 2005, only 9 teams have missed the finals winning 50% of their matches (excluding salary cap penalties), and Tigers are 2 of those 9.

In the same period, 14 teams played finals football with 50% wins. In fact during the period 2005-2015, the Top 8 included at least 1 team with 50% win rate except 2008. Since (and including) 2016, 2 teams finished with 50% wins and didn't make it. In 2007, Bulldogs finished 6th with 50% wins!

2017 we finished 3 W 5 L
2016 we finished 4 W 4 L
2015 we finished 3 W 5 L
2014 we finished 2 W 6 L
...the years we finished 9th...
2009 we finished 6 W 2 L
2007 we finished 2 W 6 L
2004 we finished 3 W 5 L

 

[jirskyr]

What I’m saying is that it looks to me like a well coached team that doesn’t give too much away but lacks the class to stand up against teams with more talent on the park (and who also use that talent properly, ie not the Dragons).

This is a GREAT review thanks.

 

[Eddie]

end of the day we need to sart winning these games to grow as a club

just like last year overall im proud of the effort for the majority of the season

we do not have a top 8 quality roster. Madge has done a great job.

But geez it would be nice to win and not have another 9th !

 

[jirskyr]

I think the real measure isn't easily available in statistics. It's how we've looked against some of the better sides in the comp. Roosters and the Storm we gave a real shake to and I was proud of how the boys played.

We're only a few players away from a real quality side.

We beat the Roosters and Storm last year too. Meh.
There is only one real measure.
Making the finals.

It is interesting and a little painful that, watching the 2018 Grand Final, I was fully aware that we won 3/4 games against the Grand Finalists and lost the 4th game by 2 points. In fact, all of those 4 matches decided by 2 points or less, which had an indicator of good performance against quality opposition and in tight matches (i.e. finals footy), but we couldn't put together enough performances to get us home.

However, I noted above, that 2018 was a freak year and we finished 6 points short of 8th position despite winning 50%. That is very very rare; we would needed to have won 15 lost 9 for the season to make the 8 (if our F/A was sufficient) - we've only ever done that in 2010-2011 (2005 we won 14 regular-season matches).

 

[jirskyr]

In the same period, 14 teams played finals football with 50% wins. In fact during the period 2005-2015, the Top 8 included at least 1 team with 50% win rate except 2008.

Just as an aside to myself, if we make the Top 8, there are the follow runs to consider of the 50% win sides that made the Top 8:

2015 St George - out first week (Canterbury 11 def St George Illawarra 10)

2014 Broncos - out first week (North Queensland 32 def Brisbane 20)

2103 Knights - GF qualifier (Newcastle 22 def Canterbury 6, Newcastle 18 def Melbourne 16, Roosters 40 def Newcastle 14)

2103 Cowboys - out first week (Cronulla 20 def North Queensland 18)

2012 Sharks - out first week (Canberra 34 def Cronulla 16)

2012 Broncos - out first week (North Queensland 33 def Brisbane 16)

2011 Knights - out first week (Melbourne 18 def Newcastle 8)

2010 Manly - out first week (St George Illawarra 28 def Manly Warringah 0)

2009 Parramatta - runners up, of course (Parramatta 25 def St George 12, Parramatta 27 def Titans 2, Parramatta 22 def Bulldogs 12, Melbourne 23 def Parramatta 16)

2007 Bulldogs - out second week, 0 wins (North Queensland 20 def Bulldogs 18, Parramatta 25 def Bulldogs 6)

2007 Souths - out first week (Manly Warringah 30 def South Sydney 6)

2006 Eels - out first week (Melbourne 12 def Parramatta 6)

2005 Sharks - out first week (St George Illawarra 28 def Cronulla 22)

2005 Manly - out first week (Parramatta 46 def Manly Warringah 22)

Makes for pretty bad reading, 3 wins and 15 losses of these sides, though most results were highly competitive. One caveat being, until season 2012, the McIntyre system saw 8th play first, so some of these sides were taking on the eventual premiers or runners up straight away.

 

[Geo]

Hope we don't have to wait till 2104 to match the Knights and Cowboys..

 

[diedpretty]

I read the thread title and initially thought Gallen must have wised up and forfeited the match to save face rather than be crushed at Leichhardt.

Saw this today, which was interesting;

I think that we would be on 26 - there was one game we lost were we scored more trys so +2, 2 games we lost but scored the same amount of tries +2 and 2 games we won were we scored the same amount of tries -2. So overall +2 on our current 24.

 

[innsaneink]

11 wins and 13 losses will not be calling it a success... 12/12 really isn't either, but if it's enough to jag a semis spot then considering the last few years I'd call that a success, somewhat

 

[Jedi_Tiger]

@bigsiro i think the two games that hurt us were
Melbourne at the death
the penrith game where masters missed the kick

 

[GNR4LIFE]

You can't keep hanging on to games we should have won. Every team has those. Look at the Sharks. Would be sitting in the top 4 if they had a decent goal kicker.

 

[Coastie_Tiger]

I get the OP's sentiment but yeah nah we havent made it till we've made it, madge and the players have done well this season but we have destiny in our own hands. We are playing arguably our best footy of the season we need to get the job done, the old girl will be rocking there's no better opportunity. Im really getting sick of hearing we are the team with the longest finals drought and Brooks is the player with the most games yet to play finals, lets just do this.

 

[happy_tiger]

Nah, we haven't made anything yet. I look back at the games we should have won like the Bulldogs a few weeks ago as pivotal factors during the season. I think we've punched above our weight but the players and coach have said anything less than a finals appearance is not good enough and I agree.

All means diddly squat if we don't get the job done on Sunday

Agree we have overachieved

 

[Moh]

I can't believe we can even end up as high as 7th.

Nice to have a finals like game next week, it's going to feel like a long week. Absolutely buzzing!

 

[happy_tiger]

Feels like 05

It's funny you mention that ...I was thinking the way we were attacking from dummy half yesterday reminded me of 2005

 

[Tiges19]

Nah we rarely lose when Reynolds plays

 

[Chainlink]

We need this win for more than just this year. It’s the belief we can make the finals. To continue to bield confidence in the team and supporters. And most importantly, show prospective recruitment targets that we are a finals team.