Wests Tigers Team v Cowboys Rd 5

[tigerap]

Been interesting reading the banter. Jennings deservedly has copped the brunt of selection criticism but I do believe that our centre pairing has been less than impressive. BJ for his defensive reads. Even last week, he was the one that raced out of the line and made Wightons made up to cut back in near the line and Mbye offers nothing in attack or taking early set hit ups.

I thought our attack last week lacked direction and variety. The scary bit is that I suspect they are playing to Madge’s game plan. Also the selections are starting to look a tad desperate. I fear we may be in for a very long season of disappointments and an even more controversial off season.

I get the long season of disappointment, but why the controversial off season?

Unfortunately, the prime reason is that we area club that just attracts it. More specifically, if we don’t make the finals, it will be another year of failure coupled with what is likely to be a large player movement. Look at the Mitchell saga. I don’t think he had any serious intention of coming here. If we have cash but don’t attract an appropriate marquee player - the media will ask questions.

Also Madge has a three year deal. This will be the end of the second year and no finals. Questions will be asked regarding extension or expulsion. This will also affect player recruitment.

I hope I am mistaken but the randomness of selection (E.g. Seyfarth , Benji, McIntyre etc) makes me a little nervous that he is running short of ideas.

More like short of talented players....

 

[Snake]

Been interesting reading the banter. Jennings deservedly has copped the brunt of selection criticism but I do believe that our centre pairing has been less than impressive. BJ for his defensive reads. Even last week, he was the one that raced out of the line and made Wightons made up to cut back in near the line and Mbye offers nothing in attack or taking early set hit ups.

I thought our attack last week lacked direction and variety. The scary bit is that I suspect they are playing to Madge’s game plan. Also the selections are starting to look a tad desperate. I fear we may be in for a very long season of disappointments and an even more controversial off season.

I get the long season of disappointment, but why the controversial off season?

Unfortunately, the prime reason is that we area club that just attracts it. More specifically, if we don’t make the finals, it will be another year of failure coupled with what is likely to be a large player movement. Look at the Mitchell saga. I don’t think he had any serious intention of coming here. If we have cash but don’t attract an appropriate marquee player - the media will ask questions.

Also Madge has a three year deal. This will be the end of the second year and no finals. Questions will be asked regarding extension or expulsion. This will also affect player recruitment.

I hope I am mistaken but the randomness of selection (E.g. Seyfarth , Benji, McIntyre etc) makes me a little nervous that he is running short of ideas.

All I see is Atm is a coach that can put the rocket up the players every now and then ...I do not see a very well drilled side..players that fail week after week selected .A roster in general that is well below par! That the coach has extended contracts to and brought to the club . The discussion could well be changing as this season progresses... another season of not being able to make a top 8 final series would be very unsettling.

 

[Geo]

We are the worst favourites in the NRL

@jirskyr did an analysis of that and found differently

So what we are 14th best worst favourites lol

Well precisely speaking I didn't compare us against any other sides in that analysis, only to point out that we consistently won at >50% when favourites (i.e. more than average and not regularly losing).

However because I love you both I looked at it just now against other teams, between 2009-2017 (1783 matches):
- when favourites at home, Tigers have the fourth-worst (13th) win rate of 59.57%, ahead of Sharks, Raiders and Eels (Eels being worst)
- when favourites away, Tigers have 6th-best win rate in the comp with 62.07%, behind Doggies (best), Storm, Titans, Eels, Bunnies.
- totals for being favourite - Tigers 6th worst in the comp (11th) with 60.53% ahead of Raiders, Eels, Sharks, Warriors, Knights.

So not one of the better sides of winning when favourites but not in the bottom few. Actually we have a very good record for being favourites away. Storm, Panthers and Broncos are the Top 3 for reliability when favourites.

Also there's another thing to consider about the data. The worst 6 teams for "wins as favourites" are also in the bottom 7 teams for win % overall, so there is a very strong correlation between overall win rate and win rate as favourites. In other words, i.e. the teams that struggled to win did so regardless of whether or not they were favourites, despite favourites comfortably winning at 50% (as you would expect from punting).

Titans are actually the outlier - they have a poor win record overall but are very reliable when favourites, 61% overall and a whopping 67% of the time away (though they've only been away favourites 15 times ever). My analysis from that period was that Titans away was actually reliable money earner if you always took them, because although they didn't win often, their wins were at such large odds you ended up with a 20% return overall.

See @happy_tiger

I’d be interested to know the % of times we actually start favourites as opposed to not

 

[iofthetigers]

With Thompson moving on has Hoffman been promoted to the NRL squad? I hope so, finally we could have an above average goal kicker.

 

[happy_tiger]

We are the worst favourites in the NRL

@jirskyr did an analysis of that and found differently

So what we are 14th best worst favourites lol

Well precisely speaking I didn't compare us against any other sides in that analysis, only to point out that we consistently won at >50% when favourites (i.e. more than average and not regularly losing).

However because I love you both I looked at it just now against other teams, between 2009-2017 (1783 matches):
- when favourites at home, Tigers have the fourth-worst (13th) win rate of 59.57%, ahead of Sharks, Raiders and Eels (Eels being worst)
- when favourites away, Tigers have 6th-best win rate in the comp with 62.07%, behind Doggies (best), Storm, Titans, Eels, Bunnies.
- totals for being favourite - Tigers 6th worst in the comp (11th) with 60.53% ahead of Raiders, Eels, Sharks, Warriors, Knights.

So not one of the better sides of winning when favourites but not in the bottom few. Actually we have a very good record for being favourites away. Storm, Panthers and Broncos are the Top 3 for reliability when favourites.

Also there's another thing to consider about the data. The worst 6 teams for "wins as favourites" are also in the bottom 7 teams for win % overall, so there is a very strong correlation between overall win rate and win rate as favourites. In other words, i.e. the teams that struggled to win did so regardless of whether or not they were favourites, despite favourites comfortably winning at 50% (as you would expect from punting).

Titans are actually the outlier - they have a poor win record overall but are very reliable when favourites, 61% overall and a whopping 67% of the time away (though they've only been away favourites 15 times ever). My analysis from that period was that Titans away was actually reliable money earner if you always took them, because although they didn't win often, their wins were at such large odds you ended up with a 20% return overall.

We are that bad we can't even make 9th again ....

 

[avocadoontoast]

Eisenhuth, Jennings and Mcintyre. Cowboys have major injuries and average at best but we will struggle. Too many weak links in our side this week.

Not many other options really. Clark and Seyfarth didn’t set the world on fire either. May as well give Eiso and McIntyre a chance to prove themselves

Madge is for sure sussing out which of these off contract forwards to keep and who to boot. Then he can sign some new guys hopefully but that’s a while away

Great system, don't worry about winning games, just try out players.

Obviously he has given up on the 2020 season by the look of it.

None of the bench forwards have done that well, why not give the other guys a go? It’s more that than anything, we need someone to prove themselves and lock down that bench spot. No ones given up on the season especially not Madge ? also helps keep the squad fitness up.

Should he have not had an idea who would be our best rotation rather than trial and error every week? By the time he’s done experimenting the season will be out of our grasp. I’m with @Russell on this one.

 

[Geo]

Eisenhuth, Jennings and Mcintyre. Cowboys have major injuries and average at best but we will struggle. Too many weak links in our side this week.

Not many other options really. Clark and Seyfarth didn’t set the world on fire either. May as well give Eiso and McIntyre a chance to prove themselves

Madge is for sure sussing out which of these off contract forwards to keep and who to boot. Then he can sign some new guys hopefully but that’s a while away

Great system, don't worry about winning games, just try out players.

Obviously he has given up on the 2020 season by the look of it.

None of the bench forwards have done that well, why not give the other guys a go? It’s more that than anything, we need someone to prove themselves and lock down that bench spot. No ones given up on the season especially not Madge ? also helps keep the squad fitness up.

Should he have not had an idea who would be our best rotation rather than trial and error every week? By the time he’s done experimenting the season will be out of our grasp. I’m with @Russell on this one.

Yep..it's starting to feel like that which is disappointing...it's what you get when fans want changes after every loss....then you get them and it's not the right one's lol..

I don't think the Club has given up but it appears to be less of a priority..time to trot out it's always next year at Rd 5 sad to say

 

[TrueTiger]

Im really enjoying watching Madge change the culture in this club....
Dropping players not performing to NRL standard,including our Icon Benji,at his best -brilliant,however he is getting older and has the worst defensive record this year in the NRL,Madge builds his game on strong defensive plans..
What most don't realise is that there is a number of players in the squad that have not been able to get a run with State Cup being called off due to covid,Madge is giving some a run to get an idea of where they are at and to see if they are NRL quality...if you look at it in perspective he is trying to be as fair as he can while trying to field a strong competitive team..this year is an unprecedented year all around,it has affected not only the NRL but the community as a whole,Madge is doing his best under these circumstances..
Our depth as far as experience and quality, is rather thin and we have many young up and comers that need to get game time and this is Madge doing just that,otherwise he will never know what he has to pick from when injuries or illness hits the team.
Im not one to bang on about not making the finals is another failure,Im more of supporting the coach who is making changes so the club and team will be a success going forward for a number of years to come..
What Madge has done doesn't please everyone...but hard decisions have to be made,he is an NRL level coach,I have faith in what he is trying to achieve...
For those whinging and whining about not making the finals they should go and follow the Roosters or Storm...Iam much happier supporting a hard working coach who is doing his utmost to get this club from the rabble it was to a constantly hard working team that will become a top team in the future..
The Raiders game has given us an insight to where Madge is trying to take this team with what he has got to work with,I will support him all the way as I watch the progress of this team throughout the season..

 

[tigerbalm]

Taylor offers less in attack than Eisenhuth, both great defenders but these new rules don’t suit Taylor at all. He’ll get another few games sometime in the year I’m sure but wouldn’t be surprised if he retires at years end.

Honestly, he cant be far off Fulton in terms of HIA related time off.

 

[JC99]

Eisenhuth, Jennings and Mcintyre. Cowboys have major injuries and average at best but we will struggle. Too many weak links in our side this week.

Not many other options really. Clark and Seyfarth didn’t set the world on fire either. May as well give Eiso and McIntyre a chance to prove themselves

Madge is for sure sussing out which of these off contract forwards to keep and who to boot. Then he can sign some new guys hopefully but that’s a while away

Great system, don't worry about winning games, just try out players.

Obviously he has given up on the 2020 season by the look of it.

None of the bench forwards have done that well, why not give the other guys a go? It’s more that than anything, we need someone to prove themselves and lock down that bench spot. No ones given up on the season especially not Madge ? also helps keep the squad fitness up.

Should he have not had an idea who would be our best rotation rather than trial and error every week? By the time he’s done experimenting the season will be out of our grasp. I’m with @Russell on this one.

How would he know if he’s not given these guys a chance, there’s no reserve grade either. The whole team is set, it’s pretty much 2-3 bench spots that are an issue. That’s because the players haven’t been good enough how can you blame that on the coach. Hes also keeping players fit something storm and other clubs are doing as well.

For ages all anyone wanted was the coach dropping players and putting everyone on notice. Quite simple the bench players haven’t been good enough so he’s giving the other guys a chance which will make everyone work harder. There’s no downside here again none of the bench players did any good

At this point he’s tried everyone anyway so there’s no ‘experimenting’ really. Every depth forward has been given a run besides McQueen who’s pretty rubbish anyway

 

[JC99]

Been interesting reading the banter. Jennings deservedly has copped the brunt of selection criticism but I do believe that our centre pairing has been less than impressive. BJ for his defensive reads. Even last week, he was the one that raced out of the line and made Wightons made up to cut back in near the line and Mbye offers nothing in attack or taking early set hit ups.

I thought our attack last week lacked direction and variety. The scary bit is that I suspect they are playing to Madge’s game plan. Also the selections are starting to look a tad desperate. I fear we may be in for a very long season of disappointments and an even more controversial off season.

I get the long season of disappointment, but why the controversial off season?

Unfortunately, the prime reason is that we area club that just attracts it. More specifically, if we don’t make the finals, it will be another year of failure coupled with what is likely to be a large player movement. Look at the Mitchell saga. I don’t think he had any serious intention of coming here. If we have cash but don’t attract an appropriate marquee player - the media will ask questions.

Also Madge has a three year deal. This will be the end of the second year and no finals. Questions will be asked regarding extension or expulsion. This will also affect player recruitment.

I hope I am mistaken but the randomness of selection (E.g. Seyfarth , Benji, McIntyre etc) makes me a little nervous that he is running short of ideas.

I don’t think the club will be booting Madge before his contract is up. Last thing they want is more drama and he’s taking the club in the right direction. There’s no randomness to his selection he dropped non performing players

 

[avocadoontoast]

Eisenhuth, Jennings and Mcintyre. Cowboys have major injuries and average at best but we will struggle. Too many weak links in our side this week.

Not many other options really. Clark and Seyfarth didn’t set the world on fire either. May as well give Eiso and McIntyre a chance to prove themselves

Madge is for sure sussing out which of these off contract forwards to keep and who to boot. Then he can sign some new guys hopefully but that’s a while away

Great system, don't worry about winning games, just try out players.

Obviously he has given up on the 2020 season by the look of it.

None of the bench forwards have done that well, why not give the other guys a go? It’s more that than anything, we need someone to prove themselves and lock down that bench spot. No ones given up on the season especially not Madge ? also helps keep the squad fitness up.

Should he have not had an idea who would be our best rotation rather than trial and error every week? By the time he’s done experimenting the season will be out of our grasp. I’m with @Russell on this one.

How would he know if he’s not given these guys a chance, there’s no reserve grade either. The whole team is set, it’s pretty much 2-3 bench spots that are an issue. That’s because the players haven’t been good enough how can you blame that on the coach. Hes also keeping players fit something storm and other clubs are doing as well.

Would he not be able to get an idea at training who is performing better than others? Isn't it his job to know who his best 17 are? This is his second full season, he should be all over that by now. He's blaming the changes on attitude but really, he just made the wrong selections. The buck stops with him.

Also, what's the point of keeping the players fit if we're not winning games. For us it should be our best 17 every week don't you think?

 

[avocadoontoast]

At this point he’s tried everyone anyway so there’s no ‘experimenting’ really.

Isn't that the very definition of experimenting?

 

[JC99]

Eisenhuth, Jennings and Mcintyre. Cowboys have major injuries and average at best but we will struggle. Too many weak links in our side this week.

Not many other options really. Clark and Seyfarth didn’t set the world on fire either. May as well give Eiso and McIntyre a chance to prove themselves

Madge is for sure sussing out which of these off contract forwards to keep and who to boot. Then he can sign some new guys hopefully but that’s a while away

Great system, don't worry about winning games, just try out players.

Obviously he has given up on the 2020 season by the look of it.

None of the bench forwards have done that well, why not give the other guys a go? It’s more that than anything, we need someone to prove themselves and lock down that bench spot. No ones given up on the season especially not Madge ? also helps keep the squad fitness up.

Should he have not had an idea who would be our best rotation rather than trial and error every week? By the time he’s done experimenting the season will be out of our grasp. I’m with @Russell on this one.

How would he know if he’s not given these guys a chance, there’s no reserve grade either. The whole team is set, it’s pretty much 2-3 bench spots that are an issue. That’s because the players haven’t been good enough how can you blame that on the coach. Hes also keeping players fit something storm and other clubs are doing as well.

Would he not be able to get an idea at training who is performing better than others? Isn't it his job to know who his best 17 are? This is his second full season, he should be all over that by now. He's blaming the changes on attitude but really, he just made the wrong selections. The buck stops with him.

Also, what's the point of keeping the players fit if we're not winning games. For us it should be our best 17 every week don't you think?

Training is completely different from actual games, he picked the hardest working guys (Packer, Seyfarth) and they went pretty average out there on the field so tough to say he just made the wrong selections

You’re acting like he’s picked a whole different team from last week, he made three changes and two of them were forced. After the titans game he made changes and it clearly worked the team played way better.

 

[JC99]

At this point he’s tried everyone anyway so there’s no ‘experimenting’ really.

Isn't that the very definition of experimenting?

Dropping players for not performing isn’t experimenting lol that’s just good coaching. You wanna keep guys in the team who aren’t good enough?

 

[JC99]

Only thing I would’ve liked is having Walters back on the bench. Our second rowers can play 80 mins and we have Chee Kam there anyway so why not play Walters over McIntyre even if he barely plays.

 

[avocadoontoast]

At this point he’s tried everyone anyway so there’s no ‘experimenting’ really.

Isn't that the very definition of experimenting?

Dropping players for not performing isn’t experimenting lol that’s just good coaching. You wanna keep guys in the team who aren’t good enough?

No, but again, isn't it the coaches job to know what players are good enough? It's not like the guys that got dropped (Seyfarth, Clark, Jennings) were playing below their best. They just weren't good to begin with.

 

[avocadoontoast]

Eisenhuth, Jennings and Mcintyre. Cowboys have major injuries and average at best but we will struggle. Too many weak links in our side this week.

Not many other options really. Clark and Seyfarth didn’t set the world on fire either. May as well give Eiso and McIntyre a chance to prove themselves

Madge is for sure sussing out which of these off contract forwards to keep and who to boot. Then he can sign some new guys hopefully but that’s a while away

Great system, don't worry about winning games, just try out players.

Obviously he has given up on the 2020 season by the look of it.

None of the bench forwards have done that well, why not give the other guys a go? It’s more that than anything, we need someone to prove themselves and lock down that bench spot. No ones given up on the season especially not Madge ? also helps keep the squad fitness up.

Should he have not had an idea who would be our best rotation rather than trial and error every week? By the time he’s done experimenting the season will be out of our grasp. I’m with @Russell on this one.

How would he know if he’s not given these guys a chance, there’s no reserve grade either. The whole team is set, it’s pretty much 2-3 bench spots that are an issue. That’s because the players haven’t been good enough how can you blame that on the coach. Hes also keeping players fit something storm and other clubs are doing as well.

Would he not be able to get an idea at training who is performing better than others? Isn't it his job to know who his best 17 are? This is his second full season, he should be all over that by now. He's blaming the changes on attitude but really, he just made the wrong selections. The buck stops with him.

Also, what's the point of keeping the players fit if we're not winning games. For us it should be our best 17 every week don't you think?

Training is completely different from actual games, he picked the hardest working guys (Packer, Seyfarth) and they went pretty average out there on the field so tough to say he just made the wrong selections

You’re acting like he’s picked a whole different team from last week, he made three changes and two of them were forced. After the titans game he made changes and it clearly worked the team played way better.

He absolutely made the wrong selections. He got it wrong. As @Geo posted last week a vast majority of the starting team have been signed or re-signed by Madge. There has to come a time where he becomes accountable.

 

[JC99]

At this point he’s tried everyone anyway so there’s no ‘experimenting’ really.

Isn't that the very definition of experimenting?

Dropping players for not performing isn’t experimenting lol that’s just good coaching. You wanna keep guys in the team who aren’t good enough?

No, but again, isn't it the coaches job to know what players are good enough? It's not like the guys that got dropped (Seyfarth, Clark, Jennings) were playing below their best. They just weren't good to begin with.

Clark had plenty of good games last year and Seyfarth was on debut so you can’t really say they weren’t good enough to begin with. It’s not like the other options played any better so he played the guys who worked the hardest for The spot.

 

[JC99]

Eisenhuth, Jennings and Mcintyre. Cowboys have major injuries and average at best but we will struggle. Too many weak links in our side this week.

Not many other options really. Clark and Seyfarth didn’t set the world on fire either. May as well give Eiso and McIntyre a chance to prove themselves

Madge is for sure sussing out which of these off contract forwards to keep and who to boot. Then he can sign some new guys hopefully but that’s a while away

Great system, don't worry about winning games, just try out players.

Obviously he has given up on the 2020 season by the look of it.

None of the bench forwards have done that well, why not give the other guys a go? It’s more that than anything, we need someone to prove themselves and lock down that bench spot. No ones given up on the season especially not Madge ? also helps keep the squad fitness up.

Should he have not had an idea who would be our best rotation rather than trial and error every week? By the time he’s done experimenting the season will be out of our grasp. I’m with @Russell on this one.

How would he know if he’s not given these guys a chance, there’s no reserve grade either. The whole team is set, it’s pretty much 2-3 bench spots that are an issue. That’s because the players haven’t been good enough how can you blame that on the coach. Hes also keeping players fit something storm and other clubs are doing as well.

Would he not be able to get an idea at training who is performing better than others? Isn't it his job to know who his best 17 are? This is his second full season, he should be all over that by now. He's blaming the changes on attitude but really, he just made the wrong selections. The buck stops with him.

Also, what's the point of keeping the players fit if we're not winning games. For us it should be our best 17 every week don't you think?

Training is completely different from actual games, he picked the hardest working guys (Packer, Seyfarth) and they went pretty average out there on the field so tough to say he just made the wrong selections

You’re acting like he’s picked a whole different team from last week, he made three changes and two of them were forced. After the titans game he made changes and it clearly worked the team played way better.

He absolutely made the wrong selections. He got it wrong. As @Geo posted last week a vast majority of the starting team have been signed or re-signed by Madge. There has to come a time where he becomes accountable.

Selections for which game were wrong? The titans game? They won the week before you’re not gonna make major changes